Why so many football punters suffered ‘away day’ blues last season. 2017/18’s strange stats

Posted on May 29, 2018August 21, 2019 by

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Whilst the 2017/18 football season in England will be remembered for many things – Man City’s 100 points, Wolves domination of the Championship and of course, little Accrington Stanley taking the League 2 title, for those of us that enjoy betting on the beautiful game, it will be remembered for some very different reasons.

Primarily this is down to some strange statistical quirks we saw throughout the top 4 English Leagues during the 2017/18 season. Stats that can teach us plenty about variance, luck and most of all – the patience needed to make a profit football betting.

Patience for many can be a dirty word when betting – especially from those punters not used to handling losing runs (I understand this – they can be tough!) but the reality is it’s something we all most get to grips with if we ever want to make our betting really pay.

It’s easy when you are winning but you find out the most about yourself and your betting when in a bad patch. After all – even the best punters are not immune to having a bad football season as pro punter Rory Campbell admits to in part 1 of these excellent videos.

So, in today’s email I want to showcase with you some strange stats for the English season in 2017/18, why ‘underdog’ backers suffered a huge drop AND just how you could have made a huge profit blind backing away teams.

(Note – all stats are based on the best odds available on the day of each game and at 10 point level stakes. It also runs up to the end of April – I have been unable to get stats on the last set of fixtures in the 3 lower leagues and last 2 fixtures in the Premier League as yet.)

Why Football Betting Last Season (in England) Was So Strange

One of the biggest statistical quirks witnessed during the 2017/18 season for the top 4 English leagues was the form of what I term ‘underdogs’ away from home – those teams priced at 7/4 and above.

This is a particularly important trend as a lot of pro punters and tipsters regularly focus on value away from home, especially at the bigger prices (so 7/4 and above). Therefore, the form of these teams is vital, yet in 2017/18 we saw a major drop in the number of ‘underdog’ away wins.

To set the scene, for the 10 years prior to the 2017/18 season, below I have listed the average performance of away teams priced at 7/4 and over (if blindly backing all away teams at these odds). As with all the stats in this article, all bets are calculated to 10 point level stakes to win.

Away Teams 7/4 & Over 10 Season Total Loss: -3162 points, ROI -2.1%, 24.9% strike rate

Over an average season, we can reasonably expect to post a 316 point loss at -2.1% ROI and to hit a 24.9% strike-rate.

With only a -2.1% ROI to overcome, it’s easy to see why this is an area of intense focus, because with the right strategy, a profit is there to be made by filtering out unprofitable away underdogs.

Any strategy is always vulnerable to short-term fluctuations (Yes, I will call a season short-term as it’s not a huge data sample) and 2017/18 was a case in point. This is because backing away underdogs during the 2017/18 season generated the following figures:

Away Teams 7/4 & Over 2017/18 Season Total Loss: -1270 pts, ROI -9.2%, 23.2% strike rate

In short, the average points lost rose by 954 points, the ROI dropped 7.1% and the strike-rate by 1.7%.

Whilst a -2.1% ROI might be overcome, it’s very difficult to turn around a -9.2% ROI into profit if backing away teams 7/4 and over.

There were also clear fluctuations across each of the 4 English leagues as follows for these bets 7/4 and over:

Premier League: -370pts , ROI -14.9%, 17.7% strike rate

Championship: -294pts, ROI -7.7%, 24% strike rate

League One: -121pts, ROI -3.2%, 25.4% strike rate

League Two: -485pts, ROI -13.2%, 23.6% strike rate

League 2 was particularly bad with a -13.2% ROI and to put its specific stats in context, the worst season prior to 17/18 for League 2 was 14/15 with -152 points and -3.6% ROI.

When Backing Away Teams Has Been Profitable

To further back up what a strange season 2017/18 was, those of you blindly backing all away teams under 7/4 will conversely have made a fine profit.

That is because if backing all away teams to win at odds under 2.75 (staking 10 points on each bet) in the Premier League , Championship, League One and Two you would have made a profit of 471 points at 8.5% ROI and hit a 48.9% strike-rate.

It’s not very often than you can blindly back favourites away from home in all those leagues and get a nice profit, yet that is exactly what happened in 17/18.

This trend gets stronger if we drop the Premier League and concentrate on the 3 lower leagues.The profit rises to 531 points and the ROI goes up to 11.7%!

What Can We Do About This?

So with all the strange patterns seen in the 2017/18 season, what are we to do as punters?

The first thing when we see trends like this is to ask if anything has changed to influence a lower strike-rate of winners away from home.

Are away teams less prepared, dealing with longer-travel times or banned from taking away supporters with them for example?

The answer to all of these questions is no. To my mind there is no actual logical reason why all of a sudden, away teams at bigger prices are under-performing.

The reason lies with what is termed Variance, which is something we see over relatively small samples of data.

Variance in its most simple terms is the difference from one data set to the mean. For example, if comparing what we made in one season during 2017/18 to what has been achieved over the past 10 seasons as a whole.

…And when comparing the 17/18 data set from the 10 year average we see plenty of variance at play.

One key reason for this is that football games are in the main tight affairs decided by 1 goal. 1-0 is the most common scoreline historically and even in League 2 this season, 67.31% of all games were decided by 1 goal or less.

The margin for error is therefore very slim and it’s easy to see weird trends like this over a small sample size such as one season.

It’s Your Time In The Game, Not Timing That Matters Most

So there you have it, some strange stats from the 2017/18 season and plenty of food for us football punters.

Ultimately, we can expect to realistically see these away trends change in time and no doubt there will be a season soon when we see the opposite apply – A higher proportion of away winners over 7/4 and a lower number under 7/4.

When exactly this will take place is anyone’s guess (unless you have the ability to predict the future) so we must be patient to wait it out until it does.

As one punting pro put it to me lately – it’s not the timing of when you start betting, but your time in betting that matters most.

Because as long as you have a valid long-term method, you might be unlucky based on when you start and the early results but long-term it will all even out in your favour.

As long as you have the patience to STAY IN and ride out quirky stats like seen above.

Why We Recommend Tipsters With Long-Term Records Only

We apply this long-term logic to the tipsters we review and recommend, preferring to judge tipsters over a deep set of stats, rather than a few months here and there.

Any tipster can pick up a few winners by chance over a few weeks or even months, yet it’s only when they have a definitive edge long-term that we can rely on them to make us money.

It’s why the average length of time a SBC Hall of Fame rated tipster has been going for is over 4 years, because these are the tipsters that have proven themselves profitable long-term.

After all, were we to judge a tipster over a shorter period of time, we might find ourselves recommending tipsters who have an edge simple due to luck, rather than skill.

A football tipster that made a profit by backing away teams under 7/4 last season would be a prime example. Do they have a real edge or were they just lucky given the higher than average proportion of winners at these odds last season? Ultimately, only time will really tell on that front.

So, if you are after long-term, sensible advice on the best tipsters with proven records making money betting, do consider a Smart Betting Club membership.

You can get started instantly with a 90 day anytime money back guarantee to boot.

Sign-up To The Smart Betting Club

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Owner/Founder

Rocket Scientists Look Away – Football Betting Made Easy

Posted on January 25, 2013 by Mike

When I tell people about my gambling activities, their reaction usually follows a three step pattern:

Concern for my well being.
Intrigued that you can actually make money betting.
Laugh and say it all sounds a bit complex to them – They’ll stick to betting on the horse with the funniest name in the Grand National.

But you don’t need a degree in rocket science to make money, especially with football betting. In fact I’ll prove it to you….

An Easy To Follow Football Tipster

Take for example the football tipster service we reviewed in our latest Smart Betting Club magazine (published earlier this week), which is simplicity itself to follow.

They are a long-established football match-ratings and betting advice service who have developed a huge database on the sport. You can follow them in 2 ways…

Follow some of their established football systems and pick up their tips each week. OR
Use their database and ratings to build your own football systems.

The focus of our review was on two of these established football systems, both of which have excellent results and are extremely easy to follow. Allow me to reveal more… Continue reading →

Premier League Fink Tank Value Betting Results Update

Posted on November 3, 2011 by Dan

This season in the Premier League, we have been using the free Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings to help us spot value bets.

We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using the same value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings give a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

We’ve been tracking all the qualifiers this season for our members on our forum [membership required]. First here’s a recap on last season’s results. Continue reading →

Champions league value bets: Man City over priced at Villarreal

Posted on November 1, 2011November 8, 2019 by Dan

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games.

Results so far:

The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, the ratings haven’t landed any major shocks.

Bets: 45

Profit/ loss: -17.75 points

Tuesday’s games:

First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:

Villarreal vs Man City: Man City 51.6% Chance. No value with City.
Man U vs Otelul: Man U 87.2% chance. No value with Man U.
Arsenal vs Marseille: Arsenal 56.1% chance. No value in Arsenal.
Genk vs Chelsea: Chelsea 71% chance. No value with Chelsea.

The English clubs are all likely winners but the bookies are offering no value according to the ratings. Continue reading →

Are Man United more dangerous after a shock defeat?

Posted on October 28, 2011 by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

Manchester United didn’t just lose against Man City, they were demolished. They suffered their worst home defeat last weekend since the formation of the Premier League, and in the process drifted out to 2/1 second-favourites to be lifting the trophy in May.

A popular theory is that this makes United more dangerous to their opponents in their next game because they are looking to avenge their loss.

But is this true?

We have examined the data across Europe’s Big 5 leagues to find out if there are any trends that might point to an instant return to form for United this weekend against Everton. Continue reading →

How to spot when teams are over-performing

Posted on October 21, 2011 by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

A look at the Big Five European leagues shows that teams that are over-performing in comparison to the previous season tend to fall back during the season and by spotting these sides we have the basis for a successful strategy.

Using a sample that includes almost all Premier League matches since the start of the 1998/99 season we have a total of 920 games where a team has been 4-7 positions higher in the table than they finished the previous season. Had you backed their opponents every time you would have achieved a 5% profit on turnover. Backing the over-performing side would have yielded a 23% loss and the draw would have been a 15% loss. This is based on average odds, taking the top odds could yield better results.

Narrowing this sample to matches where the teams in question were playing away and were not playing an opponent who also fit the profile we are left with 456 matches and a profit of 13% from backing their opponents (37% loss backing the highlighted teams and 11% loss on the draw). Continue reading →

The Latest SBC Sports Betting Magazine Out Now

Posted on September 21, 2011 by Mike

If you are keen to take your own betting to the next level, then our latest Sports Betting magazine (Issue 64) might well be right up your street.

It includes our three part essential guide to in play football betting, which we have been showcasing samples of in recent blog posts, as well as a host of tipster reviews, interviews and profitable strategies to follow.

Part 1 of the in play guide tackles the brave new world of in-play betting, featuring strategies, practical advice and analysis on every part of sports betting’s biggest growth area.

Continue reading →

The SBC Interviews: Goran Trpevski

Posted on September 21, 2011 by Mike

Goran Trpevski is the creator of Goran’s Live Bets, one of the few tipster services that takes advantage of in play football betting, where he has a superb track record of making money.

Here, in an exclusive interview extract, he gives us the low down on his approach to betting live and in play and how he makes it work. Continue reading →

How To Bet: Under/ Over Goal Betting Explained

Posted on September 15, 2011November 8, 2019 by Dan

One of the most popular modern day betting markets is the number of goals in a game – usually the Over/Under 2.5 goals line.

This sometimes confuses people who are new to football betting as there is obviously no such thing as half a goal!

So what exactly are you betting on when it comes to Over or Under 2.5 goals?

Allow me to explain.

What Does 2.5 Goals Mean?

The term 2.5 goals is used because you are betting on one of the following:

2 goals or less being scored (The Under 2.5 goals market)
3 goals or more being scored (The Over 2.5 goals market)

The number 2.5 is used because it falls in the middle of both markets.

You either think a game will be a low scoring one with 2 goals or less OR you think there will be goals a-plenty, with 3 goals or more.

If you bet on less than 2.5 goals and the game finishes 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1 then your bet is a winner.

Yet if bet on less than 2.5 goals and the game finishes 2-1 or higher, then your bet is a loser.

And as the number of goals on average in a football game hovers around the 2.5 marker (although this varies based on trends, leagues and time of year) then its the usual market on offer.

Over/Under 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 and More!

The Over/Under 2.5 goals market isn’t the only option available to you though. If we look at the odds for this sample game, we can see a whole range of Over/Under goal lines:

The majority of bookmakers (43) are pricing up the Over/Under 2.5 goals line, but there are also a number at Over/Under +0.5, +1.5, +3.5, and so on.

Although they sound confusing, some of these these lines are actually relatively easy to understand as follows:

Over/ Under 0.5 goals means you want either 1 goal (over) or more or no goals (under).
Over/ Under 1.5 goals means you want either 2 goals (over) or more or 1 goal or less (under).
Over/ Under 3.5 goals means you want either 4 goals (over) or more or 3 goal or less (under).

Other Common Over/Under Goal Lines

The Over/Under lines don’t stop there, as you can often regularly bet on a whole range of other similar markets.

Many bookmakers for example will offer an Over/Under 2 goals betting market. The difference between this and the Over/Under 2.5 goals line is that you get your money back if the game has exactly 2 goals.

Finally to make this just a little more complex, you can also split your stakes by using the Over/Under 2.25 goals market. One half of your stake will go on the 2.5 goals line and the other half on the 2 goals line.

I appreciate this might sound complex so to help explain more, here is a quick summary guide to the different Over/Under lines and what it all means!

Learn More With A Smart Betting Club Membership

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Part Three: Mindset and What Makes A Winner– Key lessons on what really matters from betting pro’s
Part Four: What To Bet On – Football and Horse Racing absolute essentials
Part Five: Being Realistic – Tipsters or Systems? How to decide what suits you best
Part Six: You’re The Boss – How to develop your own betting niche and become your own expert
Part Seven: Bookie Bashing – How to keep under the bookmaker’s radar

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