How To Bet On Darts – And Win!

With the PDC World Darts Championship approaching the SBC commissioned this article from one of our Hall Of Fame stalwarts, Richard Anderson of the OnTheOche darts tipping service. Below, he discusses the intricacies of darts betting, the key concepts and some pointers for beginners to this growing betting market. SBC members can trial OnTheOche for free for 30 days. With this headline event approaching, now is the perfect time to hit the bullseye with this service which boasts a profitable 16 year record with ROI figures above 13%! 

Introducing Richard

My name is Richard Anderson and I’ve been running the successful OnTheOche darts tipping service since 2007.

I started betting on darts over 20 years ago. I competed at a reasonable standard back in the late ‘90s and would often play against the top players of the day in county games and in local open events.

Knowing the players so well gave me an advantage and led me to having the occasional bet down at the local bookies when they went on to play in tournaments broadcast on TV. While I didn’t really understand betting odds properly at the time, I knew enough to disagree with the compilers about the odd matchup and which player should be favourite. That was my starting point. I got interested and I have been betting on darts ever since!

An evolving sport with opportunities to profit

In those early days there were only three or four tournaments a year you could bet on. Over the years, more and more tournaments have been added to the calendar as the popularity of the sport has skyrocketed. Nowadays, you can bet on darts virtually every day of the year should you so wish. 

Darts is, in my opinion, a great betting niche. It’s a popular enough sport so that the markets are a good size. You are able to get a decent bet on. Liquidity on the exchanges is good, particularly close to game time as it’s tailor made for in-running trading with matches having so many volatile swings in momentum.

But… darts is also under the radar enough that the bookies don’t really have a full handle on things outside of the top players.  

My edge primarily comes from knowing more than the market about lower ranked and newer players to the tour.

Data’s role In darts

Data plays a huge part in darts betting. This is particularly true since 2017. Pre-2017, only match results were available for the PDC ‘floor’ events that make up the majority of events on the Pro Tour (and are not shown on television). There was no way of knowing how the players performed in those matches. 

That changed in 2017 when the PDC started using scoring software called ‘DartsConnect’. This meant every dart, thrown by every player, in every PDC competition was now publicly available.

The darts markets changed overnight and they are now driven by a player’s underlying statistics, much like xG in football or driving and putting data in golf. In today’s darts markets, performance data drives market moves much more than match results do.

Therefore, to succeed, a thorough database of up-to-date statistics is an absolute must to understand how and why the markets are pricing players how they are. There is a LOT of darts played around the world so it can be a time consuming process (my personal database has well over 600,000 rows of data for 2022 matches alone!). But, without it, you would be out of the loop – it is a must-have!   

Some things are more difficult to measure

Darts is a very simple sport – you either hit your target or you don’t. In theory, once you have a big enough sample size of how regularly each player hits the target it should be easy (both for you and the market) to be able to calculate an accurate price for every player.

However, the great thing about darts from a betting point of view is that there is also a very human element to it that makes it much more unpredictable than it appears on paper.

Not all players are created equally. A huge part of top level darts is about being able to keep yourself calm and throw your normal throw at an important moment.

Adrenaline in most sports is a useful thing, in darts it is the last thing you want. You want a steady hand, a regular heart rate, calm breathing and a clear head – all while you are trying to accurately throw a sharp stick at a tiny target to win tens of thousands of pounds!

Some players have incredible numbers on the off-TV floor events but never win a big event as they cannot throw to their ability under pressure. Some players have floor numbers well outside the top 16 but are multiple time major winners as they have the bottle (for want of a more sophisticated word!) on the big stage.

You have to know your players. You have to know the circumstances they are playing under and were playing under when they hit their previous numbers. You have to know what darts setup they are using now and if it’s the same as what they were using in the past. You basically have to know which numbers are relevant and which aren’t. 

Profitable darts betting is therefore a good mix of both numbers and knowledge/research.

Specialising to strike gold

In many ways darts is the ultimate sporting meritocracy. If a player has the ability and temperament to win matches then there are very few barriers to entry to them becoming a top player.

No expensive equipment or coaching is needed. No teammates, coaches or scouts to rely on. You don’t have to be a peak physical athlete. You can be a man or woman, young or old. And if you’re good, then you can quickly rise up to be playing in major events for major money within a few months of joining the Pro Tour. 

In 2016, Rob Cross was an electrician playing in his local events. In January 2017, he won his tour card at Q-school and was World Champion by December.  

This year, a 21 year old kid, Josh Rock, was a complete unknown when he won his tour card in January and is now the 5th favourite for the World Championship  (I cannot resist mentioning that OnTheOche members have a 250/1 ante post bet on Rock from earlier in the year so fingers crossed he can follow in the footsteps of Cross!).

From a betting point of view, that means there is an ever-changing cast of players to bet on. New players come along regularly so there are always fresh matchups to provide value opportunities.

I only bet on darts, no other sports, so I have the time to specialise and ‘dig deep’ on players so together, we can take advantage before they become too well known!

A rollercoaster ride

From a psychological point of view, darts can be a surprisingly dramatic sport to bet on.

There is an often agonising pause between a player throwing for double and finding out whether they have hit it or not. It is a very satisfying feeling seeing the dart hit, sealing you a big win!

On the other hand, it is a rough feeling watching a player you’ve backed have 3 darts at a double to win the match and put all 3 of them just the wrong side of the wire. Their opponent will then inevitably nail the same double with their last dart in hand to win it instead!

It is by its very nature a game decided by millimetres.

Wishing you the very best with any Darts bets you place!

Richard Anderson
On The Oche

FYI: If you’d like to try out OnTheOche during the upcoming World Championship, there is an exclusive 30 day trial available for SBC members – all part of the many special deals we negotiate on your behalf once you join the club!

 

GLOSSARY

If you are new to darts betting, the glossary table below explains the main markets:

Betting Fundamentals, Pro Gambler Blueprints & Unique Insights

You may know the Smart Betting Club from our podcasts, the articles we regularly blog about or for our tipster reviews and reports.

Did you know that we offer so much more to help you become profitable and build your betting portfolio?

Mastering betting banks, staking plans, variance, understanding risk, statistical analysis and betting psychology are some of the essentials for successful gambling and we have built a suite of tools and resources for you as a member to use.

So to showcase this, I have written below about some of the guides, tools and advice available to you to as part of the Smart Betting Club.

Join the Smart Betting Club today for full access to all of these educational resources alongside our free tipsters and amazing ‘Premium’ discounts.

SBC’S PRO GAMBLER BLUEPRINT

All SBC members get a copy of our Pro Gambler Blueprint, an exhaustive 65 page guide to put you firmly on the path to becoming a full time betting professional and ensure you have the fundamentals for success in place.

The Pro Gambler Blueprint is split into eight easy to follow sections:

Part One: Getting Started – The Fundamentals of Betting Success – The building blocks of what makes a consistent winner.

Part Two: The Nitty Gritty – 7 Pro Tips – Practical tips and advice on the tools, websites and resources to use when betting.

Part Three: Setting Realistic Expectations – How often you can expect to win and lose explained in both odds and percentage terms.

Part Four: The Pro Betting Mindset – Understanding the value betting concept and how to change your thinking to become a winner

Part Five: Betting Banks & How To Set Them Up For Success – A simple guide on how to set up a betting bank for each tipster you follow. Very easy to follow indeed and essential for EVERY bettor.

Part Six: Building Your Own Tipster Portfolio – Want to follow more than one tipster and run a portfolio? Everything you would ever need to know is explained in this extremely detailed section

Part Seven: What To Bet On – Backing, laying, horse racing & football betting – all the main markets explained and explored

Part Eight: Producing Your Own Prices – Understanding how bookmakers work and how to compile your own odds.

THE UNIQUE BETTING INSIGHT SECTION

Those of you looking for even more expert advice will love our expanding SBC Betting Insight section, which discusses key topics you need to understand to bet profitably in great detail.

Covering topics ranging from handling losing runs to understanding value betting, through to the psychological issues at play when we bet, it is designed to help you build the best platform for sustained betting achievement.

Here are just a few examples of SBC Betting Insight articles:

  • Betfair Racing Market Odds Analysis: Betfair SP or a pre-race Betfair price?

Using live market Betfair price data from over 30,000 horses that have raced this year, in this special article you can read about the patterns we have identified that can help you understand exactly when to take a price to obtain the best value. This is specific to betting on the exchanges and advises you when you should take a live betfair market price or Betfair SP.

  • Should You Bet Each Way or Win Only?

An in-depth look at this perennial question on the how and why you might like to bet each way or to win – specifically when following tipsters. Exploring topics such as the differing size losing runs each method brings, betting bank growth, bookmaker and exchange comparisons plus the very important psychology aspect, it’s a detailed examination of what you need to know about the best way to bet for you.

  • Understanding Risk and how it can shape the tipsters we follow and the bets we place

A special article on the topic of risk, including 2 simple tests to work out your own risk profile and tolerance levels. Understanding your approach to risk is absolutely vital when betting as if you have the wrong setup for your risk personality then there is every chance you will fail.

  • How safe is the money you deposit with bookmakers?

Given the closures of several bookmakers recently and their inability to pay out customer balances, this article explains the varied levels of protection offered by bookmakers to the funds you deposit with them.

  • What’s Better? Strike-rate or Profit?

Delving into the battle between strike-rate and profit and the real-life mental challenges that occur when using tipsters, especially those that select bets at big odds and to low strike-rates. Important insight for all punters.

  • Lessons we can learn from this legendary winning gambler

Bill Benter is the man who cracked the horse racing code and a legendary gambler to boot. Yet much of what informed Bill, informs us as punters, especially when it comes to understanding ‘value betting’. These are the lessons we can learn from him.

  • Overnight Racing Markets – A Changed Betting Landscape

The current state of play in the horse racing market, especially those betting overnight and how this impacts those following tipsters.

LAY THE FOUNDATIONS FOR SUCCESS WITH INSTANT SBC MEMBERSHIP

Access to all of the above (The Pro Gambler Blueprint & all Betting Insight articles) is provided as part of your Smart Betting Club membership. It forms part of our all-encompassing approach to giving you everything you need to make your betting a success.

For those of you who are unsure, there is also an (up to) 90-day money back guarantee available to give you full peace of mind when you sign-up. If you think that the SBC service can’t help you (for any reason whatsoever – its a no quibble guarantee) then you can request a full refund.

So, why not give it a try and sign-up today for instant Smart Betting Club access.

Get In Betting Shape For 2022 – My 5 Point Guide To Success

Get your betting in shape for 2022 with the help of my Personal Trainer Punting Plan.

5 days into the New Year and if you are anything like me, chances are you have already taken yourself off out for a run to try and burn off the many mince pies and chocolates consumed over the festive period.

January is always a bumper month for those in the fitness world but the sad reality is that most people signing-up to get fit will never stick it out and give up within the first few weeks, out of pocket, out of shape and out of breath!

It is acknowledged that one of the best ways to stick at a fitness regime is to sign-up with a Personal Trainer, somebody who has the expertise, accountability and motivation to get you fit.

And this is where the parallel with betting comes in, because if your New Year’s Resolutions involve making more money betting, you can really benefit from a ‘Betting Personal Trainer’ – someone to help get you Bet-Fit!

So whilst I can’t be there to place each bet for you or shout at you to do that difficult 75th sit-up on Zoom, here is my simple 5-Step Betting Profits ‘Personal Trainer’ Punting Plan for 2022 to get you started…

1) Hire The Right Experts

I am often asked ‘Why exactly do people follow tipsters?‘ ,yet the answer is really quite simple:

Shrewd punters follow winning tipsters because they have the expertise they don’t have on how to make money betting

Just as most people would call a electrician to rewire a house or a plumber to fix a leak, so too it makes sense to hire a good tipster for betting advice.

Yet whilst most of us wouldn’t think twice about hiring a electrician or plumber for their specific expertise, some do when it comes to tipsters.

Perhaps you are put off by some of the negative stories of those involved in the tipster world, where you do need to be cautious especially on social media.

The fact is there are many excellently run tipsters with proven track records of beating the bookmaker year-in, year-out that you can trust.

There are good and bad tipsters, just as in any industry (estate agents, lawyers, personal trainers even!) and the key is knowing who to trust – which is where SBC comes in.

So, if you don’t have the time or expertise needed to know more than a bookmaker on your chosen sport or market, then there is no shame in hiring someone who does.

Especially if they can add a few zeros onto your bookie account balance!

Top Tip: Keep a record of your own bets so you can honestly assess just how good (or not) you are at betting and if you could benefit from hiring experts to guide you.

2) Don’t Be Deterred When You Lose – You Will Make It Back

There should never be any ‘lucky last race’ to try and turn a bad day around. Nor should you worry unduly about good or bad days or weeks the same. Its all part of the ebb and flow of betting.

Real success betting comes to those who DON’T worry about short-term bad runs of form.

After all losing runs happen to EVERY punter and its how you deal with them that matters most.

A quote in a book on trading I read recently jumped out at me, where one successful stock market expert explained how he handled losing:

“It never bothered me to lose, because I always knew that I would make it right back”

So, if you have a profitable method or tipster that works, then look at what they make over the long-term – which often means evaluating their performance over months and years (and not days or weeks)

Just as you wouldn’t join a gym on January 1st and expect to have a body like Cristiano Ronaldo on February 1st, so too must you do the same when betting.

Be realistic and look for steady gains, not instant results.

Top Tip: Read Rowan’s Free Bet Diary throughout 2022 on the tipsters he has followed profitably for the past few years. Not all of the tipsters he follows win every month, yet over a longer-period, they have continued to make him a tidy profit.

3) Start Slowly & Build Gradually

Rome wasn’t built in a day and neither should you expect to make huge profits immediately when betting.

Yet, I still hear from the occasional ‘newbie’ punter who jumps right in at big stakes. For them it’s all or nothing and they simply want to get rich quick.

Such a quest can easily unravel as many inexperienced punters struggle to handle the pressure of betting at huge stakes.

It might be down to not following a recommended staking plan, becoming unnerved after hitting a few losers or simply because the tipster in question doesn’t suit the way you like to bet.

My advice is to start slowly, choose a few tipsters that suit your needs and to stake at affordable levels.

Don’t run before you can walk when betting as winning is a marathon not a sprint.

Remember the golden rule when starting out betting: Its better to make mistakes at small stakes.

Top Tip: Look to follow some of the free tipsters you can follow with your SBC membership. An ideal solution to get started with.

4) Watch For So-Called Guru’s & Fads

Every new year sees a whole host of ‘gurus’ come out of the woodwork promising quick-fixes, cheats and easy solutions to supposedly help you achieve your goals.

Whether it’s a new fad diet, wonder product to help stop smoking, or for those of us in the betting world – amazing new tipsters or betting systems. These so-called ‘gurus’ tout their wares using compelling sales material all designed to encourage us to think ‘Hey this quick-fix could actually work for me!’

Sadly, in 99% of all cases, these ‘gurus’ are touting nothing but hot air. There is no quick fix when betting, just as there isn’t with a diet or plan to stop smoking.

Scam tipsters are a major problem on social media, especially amongst those who promote accumulator challenges.

The majority of them make their profits from a share of the losses you suffer with their recommended bookmakers. It’s in their interests for you to lose, not win.

Instead, forget all about betting quick fixes which promise the earth, but deliver little. Concentrate on the boring, genuine experts with track records of success dating back several years. They might not be good at marketing, but they are at betting!

Top Tip: My advice is to focus on the top tipsters as can be sourced in our regular Tipster Profit Reports. They might not promise you a life changing 10-leg winning acca, but they will make you steady, reliable profits long-term.

5) Are You Betting For Kicks Or To Make Money?

One of the biggest emotional hits for any punter comes in watching a bet you have placed as it happens.

Whether it’s following a football game on TV or a horse race you have a bet on – nothing quite gets the heart rate going, especially when it’s a close run thing.

I broke my own rule when watching a horse race where I stood to win a 4 figure sum if my bet won. Miles clear approaching the final fence – you guessed it, my horse fell and instead of a big payout, I made a sizeable loss. It left me in a bad mood for the next few hours and it was a reminder to myself why I don’t watch events I have a lot riding on.

The additional problem here is that such emotions do nothing to help your rational thinking or your betting further down the line.

And it begs the question: Are you betting for kicks or to actually win money long-term?

It can quickly become addictive to seek the ‘hit’ that a winning bet brings.

Before you know it, rather than looking for value bets, you simply start to look for winners (whatever the odds). Never a good strategy.

Coupled with the fact that studies have found that a losing bet hurts you twice as much as the enjoyment gained from a winning bet and you have a recipe for disaster.

Yet if you follow a good tipster, then there is simply no need to watch every bet live as you are not the one selecting it.

Top Tip: Trust a quality tipster to advise the best tips – then place the bets & walk away – only checking the results at the end of the day. By not watching your bets unfold live, you will find your betting is that much easier to handle – win or lose!

Expert Help Betting All Year Round

As helpful as my 5 tips might be, one of the best ways to make any new year’s resolution a success is in having proven experts to guide you along the way.

At the Smart Betting Club, we have over 17 years experience of helping people make money betting and have plenty on offer to help you make 2022 your best punting year yet.

So if looking for a betting ‘Personal Trainer’ why not give us a try as with our 30 and 90 day money back guarantee you have nothing to lose and everything to gain.

After all, we might not be able to make you fitter or stop you eating too much chocolate, but we know a thing or two about making money betting and the tipsters to trust to do just that.

Discover more on how the SBC team can help your betting.

See you on the inside.

Peter Ling
SBC Editor

SBC Insight: Understanding your strike-rate & the losing runs that go with it – Essential punting advice

Without doubt one of the biggest barriers to making your betting a success is learning how to deal with the psychological challenges that it can bring – especially when it comes to the dreaded losing run.

We have all been on them – those runs where you can’t see where your next winner is coming from.

The type that see you constantly topping up your bookmaker account and the feeling you are hemorrhaging money.

It’s why 2 punters who start following the same tipster can often end up with very different results. Often because during a losing run, one of them quits in reaction to a short-term run of form.

There is no shame in this – after all the emotion of betting can be very hard to handle, especially when you are expecting to make a profit and yet you keep losing.

Yet there is a way to get through them – simply by having a better understanding of some fundamentals that underpin value betting such as your strike-rate.

Learning About Losing Runs

To help you understand more on this topic, I want to share with you below a tremendous article as published by Steve Jones of the CD Systems service. It serves to educate you on strike-rates and how they can guide you as per losing runs and what to expect.

For example, a tipster service with a 49% strike-rate has a 50/50 chance of hitting 10 losers on the bounce over a 650 bet period.

Most services hitting such a strike-rate will likely advise bets between say 11/10 and 11/8, so how likely are you to stay the course if you backed 10 losers in sequence at odds of 11/8?

Many people during such a sequence would throw in the towel, yet this is not always the wisest move.

This article is one I return to again and again, especially during the dark days of betting when I can’t see where my next winner is coming. Because no-one is immune to bad runs, yet how we handle and react to them is vitally important.

And despite what you might think – just because you pay for tips, it doesn’t mean they will lose less. The fundamentals of probability remain the same, yet if these tips are based on a ‘value betting strategy’ with an edge, long-term it will reap dividends.

My thanks to Steve for giving me permission to share this article and I hope you enjoy it. You can read more about Steve and his services at the CD Systems website.

For further insight – Steve also recommends spending 20 minutes or so at https://justflipacoin.com and recording the sequences generated by random even-money spins. The results will surprise many and would need to be fully understood by anyone seriously intending to embark on a lengthy series of short-priced bets.

Don’t Go Broke! Understanding Losing Runs

Reproduced with permission – see the original at http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/dont_go_broke!.htm

One of the quickest ways to disaster is to be ignorant about losing sequences. They can occur without warning at any time, and they can quickly devastate a betting bank if it is of insufficient size to absorb them.

First of all, how do you know what the length of these losing sequences is likely to be? Well actually, that is fairly easy to predict, provided you have an accurate idea of your strike rate.

Sequences are directly related to strike rate, and you can mathematically determine the likelihood of specific sequences appearing, provided you know what percentage of the bets in a series are going to win. You can then use this criteria to set up your betting bank.

My view is that the size of your opening bank should equal the longest losing sequence you could encounter during an extended series of bets, multiplied by your maximum stake.

To illustrate, I have produced the table below, which you can use to determine your staking strategy. Let’s say, for example, you estimate that your strike rate over a series of 600 bets will be around 40%.

Please note at this stage that there are no ‘good’ or ‘bad’ strike rates – they are all purely relative to the price range you decide to target – please refer to my article How Many Winners? in conjunction with this procedure (opens in a new window).

Use Your Strike-Rate To Determine Losing Runs

As can be seen from the table below, with a 40% strike rate you can expect to have a losing sequence of 10 somewhere in the series (there is a 75% chance of that happening). However, there is a 50% chance of your hitting a losing sequence of 12 and a 25% chance of a run of 14 losers. That sequence of 14 is less than likely to occur, but it will still happen, on average, once in every four series.

On the other side of the coin, you have a 75% chance of hitting at least one winning run of 6 during the series. A sequence of 7 is a 50:50 possibility and a successful run of 8 has a 25% chance of occurring. Those figures can be seen in the 60% row (take your strike rate away from 100 and look in the row for the difference in order to anticipate winning sequences).

Finally, with a less than 1% chance, you are likely to confront a losing sequence of 20 no more often than once in every hundred series. However, that is the figure you should use in constructing your betting bank. If you are to operate professionally that is what you must do.

Using the formula I mentioned earlier, you would multiply the longest losing sequence you could encounter during the series (in the above example that would be 20) by your maximum stake. If that is, say, 5 points, then your starting bank should be 100 points.

Losing Runs Happen To Everyone

Please don’t make the common mistake of thinking these sequences won’t happen to you. They are mathematically determined by your strike rate and will happen as often as they are entitled to, whether you like it or not. Nobody can avoid them, but the difference between a professional and an amateur is that the professional is fully prepared for them. When they do occur it certainly doesn’t mean that you are ‘out of form’ or doing anything wrong.

It is also recommended that you set aside a reserve bank which can be used to temporarily top up the main bank in extreme circumstances. For example, a downturn which is over and above any which had originally been catered for (perhaps the original strike rate calculation was based on insufficient data and needs amending).

Once you have accurately anticipated your strike rate, you will be able to use the table below to optimise your bank structure.

Provided the average price of your winners is sufficient for your strike rate, as explained in How Many Winners?, and your bank is set up in such a way as to absorb sequences, then you will never have a problem. You will be well on your way to securing a successful future in a professional manner.


Anticipation of Sequences – Table

Please note: The table below is based on a series of between 600 and 650 bets. A shorter series would be less likely to contain sequences as long as these and a longer series would be more likely.

 

Strike Rate

(%)

Anticipation of Sequences
Expected

(75% chance)

50:50

(50% chance)

Unlikely

(25% chance)

V. Unlikely

(<1% chance)

3 83 105 132 235
4 69 86 106 185
5 59 73 90 153
6 52 64 78 130
7 46 57 68 113
8 42 51 61 101
9 38 47 56 91
10 35 43 51 82
11 33 40 47 75
12 30 37 44 69
13 29 34 41 64
14 27 32 38 60
15 25 30 36 56
16 24 29 34 53
17 23 27 32 50
18 22 26 30 47
19 21 25 29 45
20 20 24 28 42
21 19 23 26 40
22 18 22 25 39
23 17 21 24 37
24 17 20 23 35
25 16 19 22 34
26 15 19 21 33
27 15 18 21 31
28 14 17 20 30
29 14 17 19 29
30 13 16 19 28
31 13 16 18 27
32 12 15 17 26
33 12 15 17 25
34 12 14 16 24
35 11 14 16 24
36 11 13 15 23
37 11 13 15 22
38 10 13 15 21
39 10 12 14 21
40 10 12 14 20
41 9 12 13 20
42 9 11 13 19
43 9 11 13 19
44 9 11 12 18
45 8 11 12 18
46 8 10 12 17
47 8 10 11 17
48 8 10 11 16
49 8 10 11 16
50 7 9 11 15
51 7 9 10 15
52 7 9 10 15
53 7 9 10 14
54 7 8 10 14
55 6 8 9 14
56 6 8 9 13
57 6 8 9 13
58 6 8 9 13
59 6 8 9 12
60 6 7 8 12
61 5 7 8 12
62 5 7 8 11
63 5 7 8 11
64 5 7 8 11
65 5 7 7 11
66 5 6 7 10
67 5 6 7 10
68 5 6 7 10
69 4 6 7 10
70 4 6 7 9
71 4 6 6 9
72 4 6 6 9
73 4 5 6 9
74 4 5 6 8
75 4 5 6 8
76 4 5 6 8
77 3 5 6 8
78 3 5 5 8
79 3 5 5 7
80 3 5 5 7
81 3 4 5 7
82 3 4 5 7
83 3 4 5 7
84 3 4 5 6
85 3 4 4 6
86 3 4 4 6
87 2 4 4 6
88 2 4 4 6
89 2 4 4 5
90 2 3 4 5

 

I hope you enjoyed this article – if you have any feedback on it, please do share your thoughts with me via email – pete@smartbettingclub.com

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

 

 

Deeper Betting Knowledge: Why understanding your ‘risk profile’ can make such a difference to your punting profits

It is fair to say that wherever you look now, betting is becoming more and more prominent in our society. Bookmakers are heavily involved in all major sports, especially so in the field of sponsorship and the increase of sporting coverage in the media has only heightened interest across the board in betting.

What hasn’t changed though are the risks involved in betting and how we as humans understand this and are affected by it. Nor the immutable rules of investment such as the fact that anything promising you a high reward almost always comes at a higher risk.

It is therefore important that we understand risk and how we as humans react to it.

Yet most crucially of all from a betting point of view – how we can calculate our own risk profile and how that should inform the way we bet and the tipsters we follow.

Understanding Your Risk Profile

Each of us has our own thoughts on the level of risk we take in our day to day lives. What we term your risk profile.

Are you for example, happy to risk speeding while driving as you calculate the chances of getting caught to be slim?

Alternatively, perhaps you prefer to drive within the speed limit to completely rule out the chances of attracting the long arm of the law.

If you do speed, how often and how far above the speed limit are you willing to risk on a fine or losing your licence? Are you happy to go 5%, 10% or even 20% over the limit?

We very often take these risk decisions and many others every day in our lives without realising.

Whether it be our speed driving or even in today’s coronavirus impacted world – when and how often we go outside and if we wear a mask when doing so. These decisions all feed from our in-built risk profile.

Therefore understanding risk and our perception of it is also especially important to those of us who gamble successfully.

If your approach to betting isn’t compatible with your risk profile, then chances are at some point it will cause you to fail or lose money.

The ‘Risky’ Tipster Promising +30% ROI  & Who They Suit

Through the Smart Betting Club and the tipsters we review and recommend, we see plenty of examples of the different types of risk that are open to us when betting.

So to highlight this we publish several different ratings that rank those at both ends of the risk spectrum for our members to note.

For example, there are those higher risk experts who put up betting tips at large prices, who offer high rewards, yet come with the risk of large losing runs or drawdowns at differing points in time.

These high risk tipsters can be very testing when following especially for those of you who might have a risk-averse risk profile.

As ever, that immutable law of investment rings true – high reward investments come at a high risk.

Take for example our recent review of a very profitable racing tipsterThis is a service who over 1200 bets had made a profit of 389.77 points @ 30.19% ROI at advised prices. An exceptionally fine record.

Most people will immediately note the extremely high ROI at over 30% and be attracted to it – yet it is vitally important to explore the facts behind the service to check whether it is suitable for you or not. As for some people, it will be simply too volatile a follow for their risk profile

As we get into the figures behind the profits, what is notable about this service is that it tips up bigger priced selections at an average price of around 14/1 and attains a strike-rate of approximately 14.14%. Just over 1 in 8 tips win.

So, whilst this service has made an extremely high ROI at 30% ROI, it also had endured some bad losing runs at time, as indicated by the drawdown graph below. This highlights the depth of each bad run the service has suffered, which have pushed just beyond 100 points at one point.

So if you were someone considered to be risk-averse, there is every chance that if you had joined at the onset of any of these bad runs – possibly the drawdown in excess of 100 points, you would have quit before it could recover.

And it is important to state that this tipster did recover from this bad run, and the profits have since continued, but it took time and patience to do so. Something those of you risk-averse might not be comfortable with.

 

How to Evaluate Your Approach To Risk

The good news is there are several ways to work out your risk profile and tolerance including some simple tests we provide to Smart Betting Club members on how to calculate where they stand.

Yet if you are keen to work out your risk profile, you might want to see how many of the following, if any, apply to you:

  • You get upset easily after short term losing runs
  • You quickly give up if something starts losing
  • You don’t handle losing money very easily
  • Your moods are impacted by losing runs and losing money
  • You feel if paying for tips they should not lose regularly
  • You feel the need to win money every week/month

If any of the above ring true, then you may well be a candidate to take a more risk-averse approach and to step away from any tipster, system or strategy that has a low strike-rate of success.

If however…

  • You can stick out long losing runs
  • You can lose money and not be upset by this
  • You understand that you may not win every day/week or month
  • You understand that anything with high reward comes at high risk
  • You are happy to take a chance and speculate.

Then you may well be more suitable to a low strike rate, more long-term type of tipster that offers a higher reward in exchange for higher risk.

Using SBC’s Ratings To Help Calculate The Risk Of Any Tipster

To help you calculate the level of risk involved with any given tipster, we provide several different risk related ratings when reviewing a service.

For example, our simple risk rating works on a scale of 1-5 and is updated every few months for each tipster we monitor.

  • A risk rating of 1 indicates a very high risk tipster and one that will be suitable to those of you who have an extremely aggressive risk profile.
  • A risk rating of 5 indicates a very low risk tipster and one that will be suitable to those of you who have an extremely conservative risk profile.

Beyond that we also provide several other more detailed ratings that relate to risk as follows:

  • Patience: Expressed as per the length of time you need to commit to following a tipster to ensure a profitable return. Those with patience ratings 12 months and beyond can be considered higher risk as if you join at the wrong time (which no-one can predict) then you might well need to be very patient.
  • Risk Reward Ratio – This is a simple rating that accurately reflects the level of risk versus the rewards of following any given tipster.
  • Capital Risk Ratio – A simple percentage figure illustrating the size of betting bank lost during the worst run any tipster has endured. The higher figure lost the greater the risk.
  • Dispersion Factor Rating – This rating takes out the top and bottom 5% of results and those that might be considered outliers or ‘freak results’. The ensuing rating outlines just how risky a tipster will be to follow.

Ignore Your Risk Preferences at Your Peril!

Perhaps the biggest risk that you can take is to ignore this area altogether and simply ‘cross that bridge when you come to it’.

You really need to act and understand this area because if you make choices that are incompatible with your risk profile and tolerance, it could set you back a long way.

Failure to bet in a way that is compatible with your risk profile could cost you in the form of lost winnings, extra losses and even unused subscription fees if you choose to follow tipsters.

If you are interested in learning more on your risk profile, then as an SBC member, you can access a detailed guide to the topic including some simple tests to calculate where you stand when it comes to risk. And of course – all SBC reviews also come with various risk ratings as standard to help you identify the right tipsters to fit you!

Join The Smart Betting Club and take advantage of our lowest EVER membership prices for 2020.

The good news is that from as little as £27.99 + VAT per quarter, you can get started immediately and access the ENTIRE Smart Betting Club service including all our SBC Magazines (including detailed tipster reviews), Tipster Profit Reports, Free Tipsters, Advanced Tipster Analytics, Betting Insight Articles, Pro Betting Guides & more.

This includes access to our full 14 year back catalogue and no quibble money back guarantee if you join and don’t like what is on offer (unlikely!).

£27.99 per quarter works out at just £2.15 per week. Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club and gain instant access

Best regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

 

 

 

Deeper Betting Knowledge Part 2: Using Monte Carlo Simulations To Evaluate Tipsters

Welcome back to the 2nd part of our look at the 12 Advanced Tipster Outputs we now publish in every SBC Tipster Review and how they can help reveal the best, most reliable tipsters.

If you missed Part 1, you can read it on the SBC Blog via this link.

Otherwise strap in for outputs 5 to 12, what they are and what they tell us about a tipster service…

5) 50th Percentile Drawdown

This is obtained by the same method as that in the 99th percentile drawdown (#4 in part 1), although on this occasion, we look at the 50th percentile, This calculation indicates there is a 50% chance, i.e. even money, of a losing run in any given year to the current staking plan.

It indicates that, if a service is followed for two years, a bettor should absolutely expect to suffer a drawdown of this size at some point.

What To Look For: A figure that is absorbed by the suggested betting bank as we can expect this run to happen once every 2 years. Again, it’s useful for you as a punter as you might want to avoid services with big drawdowns likely to occur at least once every 2 years.

Recent Examples: One tipster provided quite a severe example of this in action as we discovered that their 50% percentile drawdown figure was a staggering 111% of the suggested betting bank (as put forward by the tipster themselves). Clearly this was inadequate and if following the tipsters bank suggestion, you should expect to go bust once every 2 years. It was no surprise this tipster did not receive a strong rating from the SBC team.

6) 50% Bankroll Drawdown

Description: The result of this calculation, also known as the ‘semi-ruination’ figure, indicates how often one is likely to avoid a drop that eats half of the funds set aside for betting with a service.

It is a widely-held belief that some considerable resolve and confidence is required once you lose half of your betting bank. At the point that 50% of your bank goes, most people would quit.

What To Look For: The higher the percentile that this output gives, the better and the less likely one is to have to contend with such a 50% dip.

Recent Examples: One extreme example of a service with a poor 50% bankroll drawdown figure came in a review of a racing tipster from 2019, which indicated you should expect to see a peak-to-trough drop of this size in 82% of all years. Effectively meaning that every 4 out of 5 years you would lose half your bank and helping to highlight a very volatile service.

7) Likelihood of a Losing Year

Description: A percentage figure that indicates how likely you are to suffer a losing year.

What To Look For: The lower the figure the better – especially for those of you who expect to play it ‘safe’.

Recent Examples: The extensive simulations that we have run during the last year show one top rated SBC Hall of Fame racing tipster to have the lowest probability of a losing year. In fact, our Monte Carlo simulator ran 5000 seasons covering almost 28m bets and not one losing year was encountered!

The highest probability recorded was just over 49% by a poorly rated racing service. This meant that a loss should be expected every other year if following and it is of little surprise that this service ended a few months after our analysis.

8) Risk Reward Ratio

Description: This ratio is obtained by taking the average annual profit divided by the average annual drawdown over the period of the review.

What To Look For: The higher the number the better and for no huge disparity between the live and simulation results.

Recent Examples: Anything above a score of 2 can be regarded in a positive light (classed as ‘excellent’) and several recent tipsters all achieve this with a very high score for one racing service who hit a mark of 3.427..

9) Capital Risk Ratio

Description: The Capital Risk ratio is a simple calculation that represents the percentage of the bankroll consumed by the maximum drawdown suffered.

What To Look For: The lower the number the better and again parallels between the tipster’s live results and simulation results are welcome.

Recent Examples: If a tipster’s largest drop is less than one-third (33%) of their recommended bank, then this wins a rating of ‘excellent’. A score of more than 66% is a concern and noted as ‘poor’ and, again, intermediate figures are labelled as ‘strong’ and ‘average’.

A recent NFL tipster we reviewed leads the way in this exercise with a ratio of 17.20% with several others all featuring around the 22% mark. These all constitute an excellent Capital Risk Ratio score.

10) Dispersion Factor

Description: The dispersion factor indicates the degree of instability or uncertainty that should be expected when following a tipster. We use the simulations to produce best and worse-case strike-rates, disregarding the top and bottom 5% of results.The dispersion factor is the ‘near-best’ figure divided by the ‘near worst’, i.e. taking the 95th and 5th percentiles.

This output is routinely used to remove the outliers or freak results such as a one-off 200/1 winner or others that vary from the norm.

What To Look For: The lower the factor, the less volatile the tipster should be.

Recent Examples: A recent SBC review tackled a tipster with an excellent ROI of over 30%, but as one targeting bets at over 10/1, it can be a volatile service to follow. This is reflected by the fact they have a dispersion factor rating of 1.796, which is rated as ‘high’.

This follows the accepted wisdom that any investment with a high reward, for example a ROI of over 30%, comes at a high risk.

11) Sharpe Ratio

Description: This is a relatively new index that we have introduced into our analysis work to provide a measure with which we can compare a tipster’s annual betting bank growth.

It compares this growth against the UK’s average ‘risk-free’ investment rate over the review period. Effectively – what kind of interest rate you might enjoy if putting your money in guaranteed sources such as a bank savings account or a government bond. The risk-free rate has been consistent over the last few years at around 2.1% (although may admittedly be changing in this current climate). The ratio is the average ROC returned in excess of this figure.

What To Look For: The higher the number the better. It is also a good examination of what you can make in comparison to other savings options out there.

12) P-Value

Description: An incredibly useful output, the p-value is a statistical test to evaluate the probability of obtaining a set of results by chance (as opposed to skill). It is obtained from an algorithm that uses three variables: overall strike rate, ROI and the average odds of all selections.

What To Look For: The lower the number the better and as close to 0 as possible. A high number indicates either a lack of live data or a set of results that might be based on luck.

Recent Examples: ‘Low’ probability covers the range between 0 and 0.025, whilst a result of between 0.025 and 0.05 is seen as ‘moderate’, with p-values in excess of this being taken as ‘high’. To complete the picture, a p-value of 1 would indicate absolute certainty that the results have been obtained by pure chance alone.

Several strongly rated tipsters we have reviewed recently had p-values of zero, which suggest that the results obtained were 100% based on skill and there is no luck element to be found. There are also numerous other tipsters that have gone under our result microscope, each of whom had very low p-value scores.

Those with higher p-value scores are usually those tipsters either targeting bigger priced selections OR those with smaller data sets than we would like. For example, one promising golf tipster had a high p-value of 0.3130 as he had put up less than 600 tips over 3 years and at a strike-rate of 20.54%. Highlighting this as a tipster or promise, yet one we clearly need more data for before rushing to invest our money in his advice.

High scores could, but not necessarily, indicate that a tipster has changed methodology of selection during the review period and this is something we would test with the tipster.

Advanced Tipster Analytics Wrap

I do hope you have enjoyed this special 2-part guide on these Advanced Tipster Outputs and just how they can help you discover more about betting services.

They go further than simply evaluating which tipsters are good or not, but into other key areas such as losing runs, bank sizes and the level of risk if following them in.

All these outputs are important so you can fully understand which tipsters you should follow and those that suit your personality.

If you want to know more, then you can explore the full Advanced Tipster Analytics Guide with a Smart Betting Club membership. Best of all – you can read the 12 scores and ratings for each tipster we review based on the Monte Carlo Simulations we perform as standard.

All of which are designed to give you every bit of information to help you choose the best tipster services for you!

SBC Helping Inform Your Betting Over The Next Few Months

Whilst there isn’t a huge amount for us to bet on right now, we are using this quiet betting period to publish a series of quality reviews, articles and insightful guides to help deepen the expertise of SBC members.

Mindful of the fact that many of you are using this time without sport to improve your knowledge and understanding of the betting and tipster world, our role is to help fill that gap with informative, educational and quality content.

Tackling everything from helping develop and understand your betting risk profile, the psychology of a winner, Advanced Tipster Analytics and guides to betting on new sports, you can expect to read a lot as an SBC member over the next few months.

As ever, membership comes with a full 30 or 90 day money back guarantee, so if you are looking to develop your betting skills, do consider a Smart Betting Club subscription.

Best regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

 

 

Deeper Betting Knowledge Part 1: A Guide to Using Monte Carlo Simulations To Evaluate Tipsters

In these quiet times for sport and betting, it’s an ideal time to look to develop our knowledge and skill sets and as part of that, in this new 2-part series I want to walk you through how to use Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate tipsters.

Much of this work has been ported over from other investment worlds and the outputs provided help us make more informed decisions on just which tipsters offer the best chance to make you a profit betting.

The full SBC Advanced Tipster Analytics Guide on Monte Carlo Simulations and the outputs for each tipster are available to full SBC members, yet in this 2-part article, I want to outline what they are and how exactly they can help when evaluating a tipster.

The good news is that you DO NOT need to understand any complicated mathematics to benefit from exploring these advanced outputs. Simply follow the easy to understand explanations we give and the context and scores we put the ratings in.

These advanced analytics are ideal if you are interested in topics like losing runs, risk, whether a tipster is lucky or skilful, comparison to other investment returns and volatility.

Over the course of this 2-part article as well as explaining the usage of Monte Carlo simulations behind the analytics, I will also be explaining the outputs they provide, which include:

  • Historical maximum drawdowns
  • 99th and 50th percentile drawdowns
  • 50% bankroll drawdowns
  • Likelihood of a losing year
  • Risk reward & Capital risk ratios
  • Dispersion factor
  • Sharpe ratio
  • P-values

If this all sounds complex – don’t worry it isn’t and please don’t stop reading!! You honestly don’t need a degree in maths to figure out how they can help you.

Instead let me guide you through each of them and explain what they are and how they can help you make better decisions for choosing the tipsters you follow.

Introducing Monte Carlo Simulations

When the SBC team reviews a tipster, the first port of call is to explore the live record of performance obtained to date. Usually this encompasses at least a couple of years data, if not more and often at least 1000 to 2000 past actual bets.

As useful as it is to explore this live actual record of performance, from an analysis perspective, the amount of data we have – even if 2000 bets is often insufficient to draw 100% concrete conclusions from.

This is where running Monte Carlo simulations for each tipster comes in as they replicate the profile of the service over many million data points.

So rather than calculate what might happen when analysing 1000 or 2000 live bets, we do so over say 90 million – a much more useful data set.

The results of each Monte Carlo simulation can help to answer key questions for any given tipster such as:

  • Is a betting record more likely to be based on luck or skill?
  • What kind of losing runs or drawdowns might you realistically expect?
  • How do their live results compare to their simulation results?
  • Have they benefited from some freak results and outliers that are unlikely to be replicated?
  • What size betting bank do you REALLY need?

Ultimately, all the outputs from these simulations helps to give us a greater understanding of the quality of any given tipster. Certainly, it is far more useful than just scrutinizing the live results only.

All SBC reviews now include the results from our Monte Carlo simulator outputs as standard, hence why I wanted to illustrate what they mean and how you can interpret them in this special 2 part article.

How These Simulations Work

Monte Carlo simulations have existed in several forms for around 90 years and have been used in many walks of life such as medicine, insurance, space, oil exploration, nuclear weapon experimentation and even for general election modelling!

The simulation is a mathematical technique which is used to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty.

The main principle is the application of randomness and volatility to test theories of probability.

They are absolutely ideal for evaluating historic betting patterns and to predict best and worst-case scenarios.

When we at the SBC take a tipster’s proofed selections and provide statistical analyses by, for instance, season, month, course, race type and odds banding, we augment this by taking several copies of the key data fields and then modelling these through a computer algorithm which generates ‘virtual seasons’ each of the mean number of bets.

Typically, this might create, say, 100,000 seasons which could produce in the region of 90 million bets!

The greater the number of simulations that are run, the more confident and positive one can be of the accuracy of the outcomes.

It often takes 5-6 hours to run these Monte Carlo simulations for each tipster and a fair bit of processing power to get there but the results are often well worth the wait!

12 Outputs to Rate Tipsters By

By running the Monte Carlo simulations against each tipster analysed and reviewed, we are able to produce detailed results that provide a number of very useful outputs – 12 in total.

Over this 2 point guide, I will provide a description of each output with our reasoning as to why they are useful analytical tools and their application, together with some worked examples from our recent investigations showing how you can use them to make better decisions.

1) Strike Rate

This first output is a simple one as the strike rate is simply the overall number of winners divided by the tips given, expressed as a percentage.

What To Look For: Whilst there is isn’t really a ‘good’ or ‘bad’ strike-rate, this output is important as those tipsters with a lower strike-rate often require more patience, yet bring higher rewards and vice versa.

2) Return on Investment (ROI)

Another standard output whereby the ROI indicates the actual profit as a percentage of total stakes. ROI is always useful as it puts profit into context.

What To Look For: The type of ROI you can make often varies based on the strike-rate and the type of sport the tipster specialises in.

It isn’t rare to see a top racing tipster hit 30% ROI+ (caveated by the issues of getting on) vs that from a football tipster, whereby anyone making 5% ROI+ is doing very well (caveated by the fact it’s often much easier to get your bets on).

Therefore, the ROI needs to be judged in context against the markets tackled and the profile of tipster.

3) Historical Maximum Drawdown

Moving onto the first of the more advanced outputs and it’s important to understand what a drawdown is as this is a term we use regularly.

A drawdown is quite simply the worst historical run that has ever taken place – the peak-to-trough decline in bankroll experienced over a period of bets.

What To Look For: A tipster service with a strong record will have a historical maximum drawdown that is easily absorbed by the betting bank suggested. It’s a useful output to examine as if you struggle with long losing runs, you want to avoid tipsters that suffer occasional large drawdowns.

4) 99th Percentile Drawdown

Building upon [3] above, what this output does is effectively list all of the seasonal drawdowns found in the simulations and then takes the 99th percentile figure. It is useful as should a drawdown exceed this 99% figure; it indicates there is a problem or change in the service to be aware of.

What To Look For: We like to see similarity between a tipster’s live record and the results from the Monte Carlo simulation. If a tipster suffers a drawdown that equals or goes beyond this 99% figure – it could suggest a problem.

Recent Examples: We recently analysed a long-term profitable racing system, which over 9 years’ worth of live results had suffered a heaviest drawdown of 109 points. The 99th percentile figure came out at 119 points – suggesting the live tipping history was very similar to the simulation results. A very good sign.

Compare this with our analysis on another racing tipster recently that didn’t attract a high SBC rating. Although their worst drawdown to date was 63 points, the simulations reveal that 139 points would be needed to accommodate the likely potential drop at the 99th percentile. Suggesting that followers of this tipster should prepare for a worse run than that which has been seen in live results.

Read Part 2

Click here to read part 2 of this article, where I cover 8 further outputs from the Monte Carlo simulations including:

  • 50th percentile drawdown
  • 50% bankroll drawdown
  • Likelihood of a losing year
  • Risk reward ratio
  • Capital risk ratio
  • Dispersion factor
  • Sharpe ratio
  • P-values

SBC Helping Inform Your Betting Over The Next Few Months

Whilst there isn’t a huge amount for us to bet on right now, we are using this quiet betting period to publish a series of quality reviews, articles and insightful guides to help deepen the expertise of SBC members.

Mindful of the fact that many of you are using this time without sport to improve your knowledge and understanding of the betting and tipster world, our role is to help fill that gap with informative, educational and quality content.

Tackling everything from helping develop and understand your betting risk profile, the psychology of a winner, Advanced Tipster Analytics and guides to betting on new sports, you can expect to read a lot as an SBC member over the next few months.

As ever, membership comes with a full 30 or 90 day money back guarantee, so if you are looking to develop your betting skills, do consider a Smart Betting Club subscription.

Best regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

Another free tipster report from the blogger up over 7k in 2019. Read about his remarkable betting journey…

Today I have another freebie to share with you – a 2nd special report from a blogger using tipsters to turn a profit from his betting.

The author in question is the tipster blogger, Making Punting Pay who in this special report explains how he made a £7,346.57 clear profit betting in 2019.

In this 17 page PDF, you can explore his journey to profit on a month-by-month basis, including the 6 tipsters he follows, the lessons learnt along the way and his advice to those looking to copy his approach when sport and betting return!

Download it now via either of the links below.

DOWNLOAD THIS FREE REPORT PDF

P.s. Make sure you also read the latest posts up at the Making Punting Pay blog on how he performed during Cheltenham 2020 – where he made £6,704.19 over the course of the 4 day festival!

Download Another Free Tipster Report…

If you missed our email last Monday, you might not have seen the other free report now also available for download.

This second report is from SBC writer, Rowan Day on the performance of the tipsters he follows and the profits he made with them during 2019.

Just as with Making Punting Pay, 2019 was another profitable year for Rowan….Providing yet more evidence were it needed that the top rated tipsters we recommend are well worth following.

DOWNLOAD ROWAN’S BET DIARY REPORT PDF

Read More Free From Both These Authors

Although there is very little to bet on currently, it is a great time to read up on some of the excellent material from both these authors on their betting journeys in greater detail.

First of all you can explore more from Making Punting Pay at his regularly updated blog, including his performance so far during 2020. I also recommend going through each week of his blog during 2019 for even more detail on the decisions he made, the challenges faced and overcame.

If you want to read more from Rowan, the author of the 2nd report, you can find posts on his betting progress dating back to 2015 at the free SBC Bet Diary page.

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

 

 

How to earn ewallet cashback betting. Download our free guide and start adding extra to your bank

For those of you looking to build in extra profit and edge to your betting, then today I want to highlight how you can use e-wallets to earn cashback when depositing money into your betting accounts.

Whilst your betting income might fluctuate on a weekly and monthly basis, ewallet cashback ticks over whether you win or lose as its based on your staking and turnover.

By taking advantage of e-wallet cashback, those of you betting regularly can easily start to make an extra £100 to £200 per month by following a few simple steps.

Even if you already use an e-wallet with the likes of NetellerSkrill or ecoPayz – you can still earn cashback by following our advice.

So to help you understand more on how easy it is to earn e-wallet cashback, I have put together a simple 7-page guide for you to download on how you can take advantage of this. Click here to download

This free guide also outlines 3 different punters making between £100 and £560 per month simply by following this method and answers all the main questions you might have.


Download SBC’s Free E-Wallet Cashback Betting Guide
Link opens up a free PDF download


All told, it is really very simple to get started and by using this cashback method, you can enjoy a handy income boost each month.

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

1 winner from 41 bets – Why you should follow this tipster

A Bookies Nightmare – that’s the theme of our latest Tipster Profit Report focusing exclusively on several very profitable Horse Racing Tipsters that continue to ride a wave of success.

Yet to balance it out today, and with this recent article on Value Betting firmly in my thoughts, I also wanted to outline a couple of reality checks on life following a racing tipster.

Not a reality check in the form of a worry these top rated experts don’t know their stuff. Because they do – the profits they make are real.

But a reality check in terms of what to expect when following a racing tipster

And the very strong reality that even the best betting experts suffer a losing run.

Because experience tells me that when a punter understands this – it becomes so much easier to follow tipsters and to avoid the one thing that catches most unwary punters out – quitting a tipster at exactly the wrong time.

Handling Losses A Rite of Passage For Any Tipster

One of the biggest warning signs I look for when observing a tipster is if they have never had a losing run of some kind.

In my experience, even the very best experts have losing months.

So if I see a racing tipster in business for 30 months, yet every single month has been profitable – well it sets alarm bells that all is not what it seems.

I wonder “Are these results legitimate?” and often when you dig deeper, they aren’t.

Simply because to go 30 months without making a loss in at least a few of them is unrealistic and unprobable.

It’s important to recognise that just because you pay to follow a tipster – this does not mean that they will not suffer occasional losing runs.

They will and its important to understand this.

Let me show you more with a couple of high-profile examples…

 

1 Winner In 37 Tips From This ‘Expert’

Firstly, lets use focus on ‘Tipster X’ – which is a very long-running racing service with a major edge.

This tipster has made 3669 points profit @ 12.4% ROI over more than 15,000 bets since 2014.

He knows how to make a profit betting and its been a ‘Hall of Fame’ rated service for several years now.

In our Racing Tipster Profit Report, we reported back on his latest progress since our last update, which saw 138 points profit made @ 26.89% ROI from 138 bets between May and August 2019.

A very nice profit indeed.

Yet, that isn’t the full story as within those 138 bets, there was plenty of ups and downs along the way.

Including a run from the 20th July of 38 bets and just 1 winner, during which this tipster lost 66.88 points.

That is a strike-rate of just 2.6%.

Fancy paying a tipster for that!?

Because had you joined on the 20th July or at some point during those 38 bets, you would have every right to question what took place.

Why was this top-rated tipster giving nothing but losers? After all, SBC rate him in their Hall of Fame and you have spent money to join him!

The reality is that this run of 38 losers was just randomness at play and as long as sticking firm, the rewards would flow as indeed they did.

Of the very next 83 bets advised since this run of losers, the service has made a 143.77 point profit.

Making back the 66.68 points lost and adding another 77.09 points profit on top!

This short-term run of losers was over and in some style and had you quit at the wrong time then you would be kicking yourself right now!

1 Winner in 41 From This 2nd ‘Expert’

To highlight how often this kind of thing happens, another highly rated expert we recommend – lets call him Tipster Y also had a similar bad run of form in August 2019.

During one period, he advised 41 bets and found just 1 winner, losing 22.24 points.

That is a strike-rate of just 2.5%.

Imagine paying for that kind of tipping advice!

Yet, despite this loss, over the 4 month period we covered between May and September, he actually made a total profit of 17.61 points @ 16% ROI from 199 bets.

And when you look back to the first 4 months of the year (Jan to April) he also made 41.04 points @ 53.78% ROI from 138 bets.

So the year is very nicely in profit despite this run of 1 winner from 41 at one point in time.

In total, 2019 sits up 58.65 points profit @ 31.36% ROI from 337 bets

Which once again goes to illustrate the need for patience, even with the best experts.

Have A High Odds / Low Strike-Rate Mentality

One thing both Tipster X and Tipster Y have is a focus on bigger price selections.

During their losing runs, the approximate average odds of a tip put forward by Tipster X was 11/1 and Tipster Y 17/2.

When you are backing at higher odds like this, your strike-rate will always be lower and there will be times when it gets really low as we saw with 1 in 38 and 1 in 41 above.

This is something I will be exploring in more detail in a forthcoming article on strike-rates and what to expect, but for now do be aware that the higher the strike-rate, the greater the likelihood of a losing run.

Whatever You Do – Don’t Quit At The Wrong Time!

I wanted to pen this article today not to scare you from using tipsters, but to just help provide some context on the reality of what to expect at times.

Betting professionally is never PROFIT, PROFIT, PROFIT – there will always be challenging times, yet with both the examples of Tipster X and Y above, you can be reassured that they know how to help you win as they have between them over 20 years of doing exactly that.

What I do want to encourage is the simple notion of having a longer-term and more patient mindset and to disabuse the idea that simply because you pay for tips, you will no longer have a bad run.

I do at times come across some punters unaware of this fact and they are likely the type who will have quit Tipster X or Tipster Y at some point during the losing runs I outlined above.

Which of course is exactly the worst thing you can do as significant profits were just around the corner.

Discover More With SBC

If you enjoyed this article and want to know more about the Smart Betting Club’s work reviewing and rating tipsters, you can read more on this at our Tipster Review Process section.

As that outlines, whether it be a horse racing, football, baseball, golf or tennis tipster under the review microscope – we leave no stone unturned in our quest to examine what is on offer and we focus very much on long-term profits.

Not just what a tipster made just last week or in August, but several years and often thousands of thousands of past bets.

Giving re-assurance that when we say a tipster is good, it really is.

If you like what you read – then you can join the Smart Betting Club at our lowest ever prices for 2019 and all with a money-back guarantee to boot.

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Founder