In today’s modern betting world, one of the most essential points to consider before joining any tipster is an understanding of just how realistic the odds they quote actually are.
Or to put it in more simple terms:
Can you REALLY match the results a tipster claims?
Because, as important it is to check out a tipster’s expertise and their long-term results, it is pointless to join any tipster if you can’t get on their bets at the right odds.
After all, if a tipster says a bet is value at 16/1 and you can only get 10/1 at best, you are taking a price 37% lower than is recommended. The type of difference that can turn a profitable tipster into a losing one if repeated time and time again.
Whilst it is widely known that trying to match the quoted odds for some very popular tipsters like Hugh Taylor is nigh-on impossible, odds movement is also a problem for many lesser-known tipsters these days.
This includes tipsters that put up tips very early the day before racing in weak markets or those that quote odds with bookmakers known to slash odds at the first sign of money.
Very often they are claiming odds you can’t replicate and if not careful, you could end up badly out of pocket.
So, what should you do if wary about joining a tipster for fear of not getting the odds?
Allow me to explain using an example of how we tackle this issue here at the Smart Betting Club…
Why Its So Important To Track A Tipsters Odds
For every tipster review I oversee at the Smart Betting Club, I engage a member of my team to track how the odds on each advised tip stack up.
This in-depth tracking is designed to discover:
- How realistic the odds quoted by the tipster really are;
- How easy it is (or not) to match these quoted odds;
- How quickly the advised odds move downwards (if at all)
- AND….How much money you can really make with any given tipster;
To take a recent example – In the 2017 Best Tipster Guide, I reviewed a racing tipster for whom we had tracked the odds available for several months.
Painstakingly noting down the best odds for each tip as each day wore on to see how the quoted odds held up.
This tracking compared the advised odds by the tipster with the following: the best odds available on receipt of email, after 15 minutes, at 10.30am or 60 minutes later (whichever applied) and to SP.
To make this exercise even fairer we only noted down the odds offered from just 10 bookmakers.
What we ultimately discovered was that the odds quoted by the tipster were very fair indeed, with only a -0.2% to -0.6% ROI difference between those advised and those we could obtain.
Here is the full rundown of what we uncovered and how the ROI from this tipster will have reduced over each time period:
Whilst there were bigger differences such as the -5.2% ROI difference at 10.30am and -14.3% ROI difference at SP, this is to be expected for any shrewd racing tipster.
Ultimately this was not a tipster you should be following at 10.30am or SP.
The clear evidence from this tracking was that this tipster is claiming achievable odds and is one to follow.
NOTE: This tipster advises the vast majority of their tips during the big race meetings and on Saturdays, where there is a lot more money swilling around in these markets.
PRO TIP: Look out for tipsters that put up bets in similar markets as you will often find they are much easier to get on!
Adjusted Profits Based On This Odds Tracking…
As I perform similar odds tracking for each tipster SBC reviews these days, I also compile all of this data and present it in our Adjusted Profits Tables to present the differences on show.
Helping you view at a glance as to which tipsters offer the fairest odds!
This Adjusted Profits Table is available in our latest Tipster Profit Report and helps to raise awareness of those tipsters with both fair and possibly, unfair practices when it comes to settling bets.
Allow me to illustrate the power of this table further by using two examples from the latest Adjusted Profits Table (as taken from November’s Tipster Profit Report), which are based on the annualised profits made to a £2,000 betting bank.
Note: This £2,000 betting bank figure is merely a simple comparative sum – you don’t need this sum to follow these tipsters, it just helps us to compare and contrast easily.
Example 1: Improve Your Profits By £665
In the example featuring Tipster 1 below, our tracking revealed that you could actually boost the claimed profits by as much as 4% within the first 15 minutes of their advising a bet.
This is down to an extremely fair policy whereby Tipster 1 quotes and settle all tips to a very achievable price. Simply by using a site like Oddschecker to compare the best odds you can often beat their results.
To the £2,000 bank comparison sum, this 4% ROI difference in your favour over a year would be as much as £665 – a very considerable sum indeed.
Example 2: £3,554 Profit Becomes ‘Just’ £2,519
On the other hand, there are also those tipsters who quote what can be considered unrealistic odds as this next example proves.
If taking Tipster 2’s claimed results, you would have made a £3,554 profit – however with this service we noted major changes in price with an 8.5% ROI drop within the first 15 minutes.
This claimed £3,554 profit quickly became £2,519 – a drop of £1,035. Still profitable, but certainly not to the standards being claimed.
It’s Not Just The Profits But Achievable Odds That Matter
Odds availability is a crucial element of any tipster analysis and ultimately helping you choose and find the best tipsters to make you money betting.
Therefore, before you consider joining a tipster, stop to consider just how available or easy their claimed profits actually are.
You need to know if you can match their advised prices…because it can ultimately determine whether you can make a profit or loss from their advice!
The good news is that there are many tipsters out there, including those in our Hall of Fame who operate fair odds availability policies.
Ensuring that at worst, you can match their claimed results and at best – even improve on them by using odds comparison websites.
Get The Full Adjusted Profits Table
You can find the full ‘Adjusted Profits’ Table in the latest Tipster Profit Report, where you can see the individual rundown of the odds tracking for each tipster we have observed.
It’s a great way to discover those tipsters that quote fair odds and where you can realistically match the profits they claim.
All SBC reviews also include odds tracking as standard these days, so you know at all times just how each tipster stacks up when it comes to fairness.
Odds tracking is all part of our quest to genuinely help you make money betting with tipsters.
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If you want to know more about the very best betting tipsters (including those that quote FAIR odds) then you might like to consider a Smart Betting Club membership.
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