Should you bet to win or each way at Betfair SP? A new spin on this age-old question

Monday saw the release of the latest SBC review and the first in our series on profitable betting exchange tipsters as we honed in on the racing guru showing a fine profit at both Betfair SP and bookmaker prices.

Yet as profitable as this service is, one of the dilemmas our review threw up was the old query of – should you back a horse to win or each way?

Its a question as old as betting on racing itself as punters weigh up whether to go for broke and the big win OR to play it safe and get a payout of some kind should the horse finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

What is new is understanding which approach you should take when betting at Betfair SP as the each way market on the exchange is split into two – you bet into the win market and the place market separately.

Posing the updated question…

If betting at Betfair SP, should you back a horse to win or in both the win/place markets?

Allow me to help explain how we approached this dilemma in this new review…

Win only betting returns the highest points profit

Without question, the most profitable angle to follow this particular racing tipster from a points profit basis is to bet on each horse to win outright.

To outline this, below you can see the performance if backing win only at Betfair SP (after commission is deducted):

Betfair SP win only: 827 bets, 430.44 points profit @ 14.25% ROI

And then comparing that with mixing up win and place bets as directly advised by the tipster himself:

Betfair SP win/win & place mix: 827 bets, 290.68 points profit @ 9.63% ROI

On the face of it, this looks an open and shut case. Back all the tips to win and leave it at that.

Yet when we dig a little deeper, things turn out a little differently…

Next step – analysing the worst ‘drawdowns’

What the above doesn’t take into account as that bane of all punters everywhere – losing runs and specifically from our point of view, working out the worst drawdown from peak to trough.

Explained another way, a drawdown is an understanding of what the worst possible run you might suffer actually is….Should you be extremely unlucky and choose to follow this tipster on the very day they start their worst losing run.

Such drawdown figures are essential to understand because just as we always ask a tipster ‘what can i make?’ – we also need to ask ‘what can i lose?‘ should the worst happen.

Without hindsight its impossible to know when a bad run will actually hit – all it can really do is prepare you and make sure you have a bankroll to cover the worst eventuality. And if you think that losing runs don’t happen to us all, even professional punters when betting, well, think again…!

Here then are the worst drawdowns for both the win and win/place method:

Betfair SP win only worst drawdown: 154 points

Betfair SP win/win & place mix worst drawdown: 132 points

If these seem large, don’t be worried as the losses during each of these drawdowns were more then recouped simply with patience and time. No tipster, no matter how good they are is ever invincible and ALL go through drawdowns and losing runs at some time.


The method with the biggest ‘bank growth’

With the above ‘drawdown’ figures alongside the results of our in-house montecarlo simulator (which repeats the profile of each tipster several thousand times), we are then able to come up with an advised betting bank figure for each method.

This betting bank is designed to absorb drawdowns – thus ensuring you never go bust!

For the win only betting approach, we naturally need larger betting banks to cover larger possible drawdowns than the win/place method. And from this information, we can gauge exactly how much betting bank growth (or Return on Capital) we can make per method.

Here is how the 2 approaches stack up from a bank growth perspective:

Betfair SP win only: 142.04% Growth

Betfair SP win/win & place mix: 145.34% Growth

From this we can clearly see that its actually betting in both the win and place markets (effectively each way bets) which produces the most betting bank growth in this scenario. It’s only an extra 3.30% growth but every little counts.

This is because you need a much smaller betting bank if following win & place then if following win only.

And it is this higher bank growth figure you should focus on – not simply always just ‘points profit’.

Individual tipster analysis required

Although in this example, the greatest bank growth came by betting in both the win/place markets rather than win only, this is not always the case.

Such analysis needs to be performed on a tipster by tipster basis as each strategy is different and you need to understand them fully to really maximise your returns.

As ever – putting the profits made by any tipster into context is key – especially when it comes to betting banks

Which is why we pen these detailed reviews to help you maximise the revenue you can make by following any given tipster. We also perform the above analysis on all tipsters reviewed as standard.

If you would like to know more about the Betfair SP tipster featured in this example, you can access our detailed review the instant you join the Smart Betting Club.

You can sign-up today at our lowest prices ever – from just £27.99 + VAT per quarter, which provides you with the ENTIRE Smart Betting Club service including all our SBC Magazine, Tipster Profit Reports, Best Tipster Guides, Pro Betting Guides & more.

It’s our best ever SBC membership deal and with our amazing money back guarantee offer you have everything to gain and nothing to lose.

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club.

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New review alert: The Betfair SP Tipster up 17.78% ROI since 2017 – don’t miss out!

The first review from our forthcoming series on profitable betting exchange tipsters has just been published – and its fair to say this is one article you won’t want to miss out on!

Inside this latest review, we explore in great detail the success enjoyed by this tipster to both bookmaker advised prices and at Betfair SP (after commission) over nearly 850 bets since 2017.

At Betfair SP alone, this tipster has generated a profit of between 374 and 543 points at 12.27% and 17.78% ROI.

The profit differences above depend on whether you wish to follow as a mix of win & place bets on Betfair (effectively mimicking a traditional each way bet) or just win bets only.

You can make more money betting win only than each way, yet as ever you don’t get a payout if your horse finishes in the place money.

If able to bet with bookmakers – to his fairly quoted odds, he has made a profit of between 768 and 1041 points at 25.16% and 34.11% ROI.

Again these differences are based on whether you prefer to bet each way or to win outright – with the latter much more profitable long-term.

Read The Full SBC Review

As well as exploring the service and its profitability with both bookmakers and the exchanges, our review also discusses:

  • The service staking plan and how it stacks up;
  • The breakdown in performance by odds & where the service makes the greatest profit;
  • A comparison of win vs each way betting to help you decide what’s best for you;
  • The recommended betting bank sizes for each method & how to make the largest growth figures;
  • How best to follow on the exchanges and a possible ‘Hybrid’ method to make the greatest return.

If interested in learning more on this tipster and reading the full 11-page review, you can access it immediately with a Smart Betting Club membership.

You can also discover how to save £97 on the cost of joining this tipster – thanks to an exclusive Smart Betting Club deal.

Get The Full SBC Membership Package For Just £27.99

If wanting to get started right away and access this review ASAP, you can now join the Smart Betting Club and take advantage of our lowest EVER membership prices for 2019.

From as little as £27.99 + VAT per quarter, you can get started immediately and access the ENTIRE Smart Betting Club service including all our SBC Magazines, Tipster Profit Reports, Best Tipster Guides, Pro Betting Guides & more.

This includes access to our full 13 year back catalogue and no quibble money back guarantee if you join and don’t like what is on offer (unlikely!).

£27.99 per quarter works out at just £2.15 per week – less than the cost of the Racing Post.

It’s our best ever SBC membership deal and with our amazing money back guarantee offer you have everything to gain and nothing to lose.

Subscribe Now to the Smart Betting Club

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club.

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How to check if a tipsters quoted odds are fair and realistic

One of the most important questions facing those of you using racing tipsters these days is that of odds availability.

Specifically…Can you as a punter realistically obtain the odds that a tipster quotes?

For some of the most popular free tipsters like Hugh Taylor or Andy Holding it’s always been an issue as the weight of money behind their tips forces the odds in very quickly. The fact they both supply their tips for free means there are lots of punters trying to lump on their bets.

Odds movement is also now a growing issue for other less well-known tipsters too – especially horse racing experts that put up bets into early markets which are very price sensitive.

Whilst it might make sense to follow a tipster snapping up the earliest value – in reality, it can cause you all kinds of problems. From the fact you will be making less profit (and possibly losing so much value you might be in deficit by doing so) to being increasingly vulnerable to betting restrictions being applied to your bookmaker accounts.

In short, its a major issue and one you need to be acutely aware of if following a tipster.

The Evolution of Racing Bookmaking

To help explain the current issue with ‘early odds’, it’s worth a quick walk down memory lane to understand how betting on racing historically worked.

Back in the good old days, most major bookmakers employed large teams of racing traders who would price up each race meeting and manage a traditional racing book.

As money flowed in a market, the odds for each horse would change as each firm managed their liability and tried to work an overall profitable position.

Occasionally, some bookmakers would find themselves getting filled in and taking a hit if getting it wrong, yet their in-built over-round always ensured that long-term, they would usually make a profit with a modicum of skill.

With the introduction of betting exchanges, all of this changed.

Nowadays, large-scale racing trading teams are a thing of the past, with almost all bookmakers basing their odds on what happens on Betfair.

If money comes in for a horse on Betfair – the bookie slashes its prices to reflect that. The opposite rings true on horses that drift in price although generally bookies are much slower to put their odds up than down.

Ultimately, the art of building a racing book has been lost by all major firms. They simply track Betfair.

Which in turn has impacted how we as punters get on and how the markets react to shrewd money.

Why Odds Are Odd When Betting Early

This sea change in the world of racing bookmaking has had a major knock-on effect for those punters keen to bet early such as the night before or the early morning of racing.

For most horse races these days, you can expect to see the first odds start to appear around 4 to 5pm the day before racing is due to take place from a handful of bookies.

As the evening wears on, a few more firms will start to quote odds until there are a smattering of bookmakers pricing up each horse in a race.

This continues into the morning of racing and it is not until 10 to 1030am when the markets really start to form, with the vast majority of money actually only hitting the market around 10 minutes before a race actually starts.

The problem for us punters is that when taking ‘early’ prices prior to the market forming – these prices are based on a very small amount of Betfair trading – usually not much money at all.

A horse that is 10/1 at 9am, which suddenly sees a rush of support can send the bookies running for cover and be as short as 5/1 within 20 to 30 minutes.

This is because without a decent Betfair market to guide them at this time and with very little ‘racing expertise’, the bookies know they are vulnerable to shrewd punters who try and snap up the value odds on any overpriced horses at this point.

Therefore, even moderate sums of money coming in for a horse (especially at big odds) will see its price collapse in no time and the accounts of those placing such bets eyed with suspicion.

Want to red flag your account to a bookmaker as one for restriction? Simply place lots of bets on popular horses that quickly shorten in price and that usually does the trick.

Sometimes it matters not one jot if your bets go onto win. The simple act of regularly betting horses that shorten in price is enough to see many bookmakers limit your account.

20/1 Advised into 8/1 SP…

It is this issue of slashing odds that causes such a problem for tipsters who post up bets into these early betting markets.

The general logic is that the earlier a tipster puts up a tip, the greater chance its odds will move downwards*

*Although it’s important to make the distinction here that betting in the major race meetings such as Cheltenham or on the big Saturday/Sunday featured races won’t see the same level of movement.

For those tipsters with a large subscriber base, there is zero chance the quoted odds will hold up.

It’s all too common to see a price of 20/1 quoted by a tipster, yet within minutes it’s a best 16/1 or 14/1. Come the morning of the race its 10/1 and it starts at 8/1 SP.

Considering betting profitably is all about value, even a change from 20/1 to 16/1 can and does make a major difference to your bottom line.

Taking 8/1 or 10/1 on a 20/1 shot isn’t worth thinking about neither – and by doing so you are actually more likely to turn a loss than a profit.

The Tipster With Rapid Odds Movement Issues

To give you an example of the type of movement I regularly see on this front, I wanted to share with you stats from some ongoing odds monitoring we are currently undertaking on a popular racing tipster.

I won’t name the tipster in question as this odds monitoring is still ongoing, but I have seen several very positive reviews of his service as published by several other ‘review’ sites already – yet none of them mention his odds movement, which I fear is a major oversight.

This racing tipster advises his tips either the night before racing (8-9pm) or early in the morning of racing (8.30-9am) and to gauge how his prices stand up, we are tracking and comparing the best odds across 3 different metrics as follows:

  • The odds he advises
  • The odds after 15 minutes have elapsed from the time the tip was sent
  • The odds at 10am

Below you can see what the average odds look like in decimal format at each of these 3 metrics so far:

  • The odds he advises: 13.96
  • The odds after 15 minutes have elapsed from the time the tip was sent: 11.96
  • The odds at 10am: 10.85

Exploring these stats further, you can quite clearly see a major drop in the average odds available from those advised and those available after 15 minutes. From 13.96 to 11.96 in 15 minutes is a significant move.

By 10am, these odds have dropped even further down to 10.85 and it has quickly become apparent that they are being extremely well supported.

In terms of profit differences, you would be -9.35% ROI worse off if taking the best price after 15 minutes and -21.78% ROI worse off at 10am.

There is no suggestion that the odds quoted by this tipster are not accurate at the time they send the tips (our tracking also gauges this) but clearly they are going to prove to be very difficult to obtain.

Even if you did get on within the first few minutes of the bets being advised – most bookies would take one look at your betting history and quickly restrict or close your account.

If there is one thing that will get a bookies attention it is constantly backing a horse that drops significantly in price after you get on.

 

Why Odds Tracking Is A Must In ANY Review

The above outlines very neatly exactly why every genuine tipster review MUST feature an element of odds-tracking.

We perform this as standard for every major tipster we review and whilst it is hard-work and time-consuming, it is hugely valuable.

By doing so we can quickly identify those tipsters putting up genuine odds and inform you as to how achievable the odds are (or not).

The tipster I reference above will be reviewed in a forthcoming SBC Magazine once we complete our detailed odds tracking, and as things stand it does seem odds availability is a major issue – something that will prevent us recommending them to our members.

And whilst other reviews published on this tipping service might skirt this issue – we will not as it’s a fundamental problem that needs to be addressed if they wish to be taken seriously as a service.

The good news is that there are several Hall of Fame rated tipsters, whom we rate and recommend here at SBC that do play fair by the odds they quote for subscribers.

If you are keen to find out more on who they are and how they can help you, then you can find more details within our Hall of Fame listings and reviews, which you can gain access to with a Smart Betting Club membership.

Whatever you do though, be very wary of any tipster quoting results based on tips sent the day before racing. Very often you simply can’t match their results in practice!

P.s. If ever in doubt as to whether a tipster puts up genuine odds – be sure to ask them exactly when they put up their tips and how they settle their results. If they are putting them up the evening before racing and making no adjustments for odds movement, I would advise you to give them a miss!

Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club.

 

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

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How this Tipster uses Artificial Intelligence to bag winners

Monday saw the start of Wimbledon 2019 and if you are looking for a top tennis betting tipster to follow – then you simply must read our review of the Tennis Tipster with a phenomenal record as featured in the latest SBC magazine.

Although when I say ‘Tennis Tipster‘ I really should say ‘Tennis Algorithm‘ as this service uses a complex model based on Artificial Intelligence to generate value betting tennis tips on a daily basis.

Developed by Miguel – who used his background in both civil engineering and professional poker to produce the Algorithm, it crunches the numbers for each tennis match and works out the true betting odds for each player. If the odds available on any given player are larger than the Algorithm’s calculations – it becomes a bet.

…And you as a subscriber to this Tennis Service receive a notification of the bet, which in turn you can place with either a bookmaker or exchange.

1941.42 Points Profit Since 2016

Having observed this service for a lengthy period of time, we published our findings in the extremely detailed review now available in SBC 111.

This review highlights the profitability of the service including the key record of performance since 2016, whereby over 23142 bets, the service at ‘Average Odds’ has made a profit of 1941.42 points @ 8.39% Return on Investment (ROI)

You can view the full breakdown of performance below:

Over 19 X Bank Growth = Outstanding Profits

Even more impressive is the fact this profit has been generated at simple 1 point level stakes on each bet placed.

To such a simple staking plan, our recommendation is for a 100 point betting bank, which in turn has generated some huge Return on Capital (ROC) figures as illustrated by the table below.

The reason why such a high ROC figure is impressive as this is a direct way of calculating how much a betting bank will have grown – which in this case is 1941.4%.

So if you started with a fund of £500 in 2016 when the Tennis Tipster started, this £500 will have grown 19.41 times bigger,

In this case, that £500 would now be worth £9,705!!

Of course, this would rely on you placing every single bet during that period at the average odds, so in reality your figures will differ.

You will have missed some bets, got better or worse odds at times and possibly adjusted just how much you stake in £ on each bet during this period.

Yet the bottom-line is that this is a seriously impressive ‘Tipping’ service and one all aspiring punters should check out – whether you like Tennis or not.

Read This Review With Instant SBC Membership Access (& Save 40 Euros)

You can access our exclusive review of this Tennis Service in the latest SBC magazine – Issue 111 with a Smart Betting Club membership.

This includes access to every single tipster review we have ever written (there are literally hundreds available) and all of the Hall of Fame Tipsters we recommend to make you money betting.

Check out some of our latest publications.

Best of all, if interested in joining this Tennis Service, you can also save €40 on the cost of a subscription to the service as an SBC member, thanks to the major Tipster Savings we negotiate on your behalf.

Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club.

 

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

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