SBC Insight: Understanding your betting strike-rate & the losing runs that go with it

Those of you who have listened to the new podcast interview I recorded with Gambling.com will have noticed how throughout this chat, I regularly reference the importance of tackling and understanding the psychological challenges of betting in order to make your punting a success.

This is because I believe the ability to objectively analyse your betting and remove emotion from the equation can be the difference between winning and losing long-term.

It is why 2 punters who start following the same tipster can often end up with very different results. Often it is because during a losing run, one of them quits and usually in reaction to a short-term run of form.

There is no shame in this – after all the emotion of betting can be very hard to handle, especially when you are expecting to make a profit.

Psychologically, the pain of backing a loser is twice the joy you experience from backing a winner.

As I state on the podcast – just because you pay for tips, it doesn’t mean they will lose less. The fundamentals of probability remain the same, yet if these tips are based on a ‘value betting strategy’ with an edge, long-term it will reap dividends.

So to help you understand more on this topic, I want to share with you a tremendous article as published by Steve Jones of the CD Systems service. It serves to educate you on strike-rates and how they can guide you as per losing runs and what to expect.

For example, a service with a 49% strike-rate has a 50/50 chance of hitting 10 losers on the bounce over a 650 bet period.

Most services hitting such a strike-rate will likely advise bets between say 11/10 and 11/8, so how likely are you to stay the course if you backed 10 losers in sequence at those odds?

All told, it’s a fantastic and very informative article and one I return to again and again, especially during bad runs and when I can’t see where my next winner is coming. As ever the importance of having the right size betting bank is also paramount.

My thanks to Steve for giving me permission to share it. You can read more about Steve and his services at the CD Systems website.

For further insight – Steve also recommends spending 20 minutes or so at https://justflipacoin.com and recording the sequences generated by random even-money spins. The results will surprise many and would need to be fully understood by anyone seriously intending to embark on a lengthy series of short-priced bets.

Don’t Go Broke! Understanding Losing Runs

Reproduced with permission – see the original at http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/dont_go_broke!.htm

One of the quickest ways to disaster is to be ignorant about losing sequences. They can occur without warning at any time, and they can quickly devastate a betting bank if it is of insufficient size to absorb them.

First of all, how do you know what the length of these losing sequences is likely to be? Well actually, that is fairly easy to predict, provided you have an accurate idea of your strike rate.

Sequences are directly related to strike rate, and you can mathematically determine the likelihood of specific sequences appearing, provided you know what percentage of the bets in a series are going to win. You can then use this criteria to set up your betting bank.

My view is that the size of your opening bank should equal the longest losing sequence you could encounter during an extended series of bets, multiplied by your maximum stake.

To illustrate, I have produced the table below, which you can use to determine your staking strategy. Let’s say, for example, you estimate that your strike rate over a series of 600 bets will be around 40%.

Please note at this stage that there are no ‘good’ or ‘bad’ strike rates – they are all purely relative to the price range you decide to target – please refer to my article How Many Winners? in conjunction with this procedure (opens in a new window).

Use Your Strike-Rate To Determine Losing Runs

As can be seen from the table below, with a 40% strike rate you can expect to have a losing sequence of 10 somewhere in the series (there is a 75% chance of that happening). However, there is a 50% chance of your hitting a losing sequence of 12 and a 25% chance of a run of 14 losers. That sequence of 14 is less than likely to occur, but it will still happen, on average, once in every four series.

On the other side of the coin, you have a 75% chance of hitting at least one winning run of 6 during the series. A sequence of 7 is a 50:50 possibility and a successful run of 8 has a 25% chance of occurring. Those figures can be seen in the 60% row (take your strike rate away from 100 and look in the row for the difference in order to anticipate winning sequences).

Finally, with a less than 1% chance, you are likely to confront a losing sequence of 20 no more often than once in every hundred series. However, that is the figure you should use in constructing your betting bank. If you are to operate professionally that is what you must do.

Using the formula I mentioned earlier, you would multiply the longest losing sequence you could encounter during the series (in the above example that would be 20) by your maximum stake. If that is, say, 5 points, then your starting bank should be 100 points.

Losing Runs Happen To Everyone

Please don’t make the common mistake of thinking these sequences won’t happen to you. They are mathematically determined by your strike rate and will happen as often as they are entitled to, whether you like it or not. Nobody can avoid them, but the difference between a professional and an amateur is that the professional is fully prepared for them. When they do occur it certainly doesn’t mean that you are ‘out of form’ or doing anything wrong.

It is also recommended that you set aside a reserve bank which can be used to temporarily top up the main bank in extreme circumstances. For example, a downturn which is over and above any which had originally been catered for (perhaps the original strike rate calculation was based on insufficient data and needs amending).

Once you have accurately anticipated your strike rate, you will be able to use the table below to optimise your bank structure.

Provided the average price of your winners is sufficient for your strike rate, as explained in How Many Winners?, and your bank is set up in such a way as to absorb sequences, then you will never have a problem. You will be well on your way to securing a successful future in a professional manner.


Anticipation of Sequences – Table

Please note: The table below is based on a series of between 600 and 650 bets. A shorter series would be less likely to contain sequences as long as these and a longer series would be more likely.

 

Strike Rate

(%)

Anticipation of Sequences
Expected

(75% chance)

50:50

(50% chance)

Unlikely

(25% chance)

V. Unlikely

(<1% chance)

3 83 105 132 235
4 69 86 106 185
5 59 73 90 153
6 52 64 78 130
7 46 57 68 113
8 42 51 61 101
9 38 47 56 91
10 35 43 51 82
11 33 40 47 75
12 30 37 44 69
13 29 34 41 64
14 27 32 38 60
15 25 30 36 56
16 24 29 34 53
17 23 27 32 50
18 22 26 30 47
19 21 25 29 45
20 20 24 28 42
21 19 23 26 40
22 18 22 25 39
23 17 21 24 37
24 17 20 23 35
25 16 19 22 34
26 15 19 21 33
27 15 18 21 31
28 14 17 20 30
29 14 17 19 29
30 13 16 19 28
31 13 16 18 27
32 12 15 17 26
33 12 15 17 25
34 12 14 16 24
35 11 14 16 24
36 11 13 15 23
37 11 13 15 22
38 10 13 15 21
39 10 12 14 21
40 10 12 14 20
41 9 12 13 20
42 9 11 13 19
43 9 11 13 19
44 9 11 12 18
45 8 11 12 18
46 8 10 12 17
47 8 10 11 17
48 8 10 11 16
49 8 10 11 16
50 7 9 11 15
51 7 9 10 15
52 7 9 10 15
53 7 9 10 14
54 7 8 10 14
55 6 8 9 14
56 6 8 9 13
57 6 8 9 13
58 6 8 9 13
59 6 8 9 12
60 6 7 8 12
61 5 7 8 12
62 5 7 8 11
63 5 7 8 11
64 5 7 8 11
65 5 7 7 11
66 5 6 7 10
67 5 6 7 10
68 5 6 7 10
69 4 6 7 10
70 4 6 7 9
71 4 6 6 9
72 4 6 6 9
73 4 5 6 9
74 4 5 6 8
75 4 5 6 8
76 4 5 6 8
77 3 5 6 8
78 3 5 5 8
79 3 5 5 7
80 3 5 5 7
81 3 4 5 7
82 3 4 5 7
83 3 4 5 7
84 3 4 5 6
85 3 4 4 6
86 3 4 4 6
87 2 4 4 6
88 2 4 4 6
89 2 4 4 5
90 2 3 4 5

 

I hope you enjoyed this article – if you have any feedback on it, please do share your thoughts with me via email – pete@smartbettingclub.com

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

Part 2 of ‘A Bookies Worst Nightmare’ – 2 New racing tipsters reviewed in SBC 113

The very latest SBC Magazine (Issue 113) is out now and it’s Part 2 of our special ‘Bookies Worst Nightmare’ focus on profitable horse racing tipsters.

Inside this special magazine, 2 very different NEW racing tipsters go under our review microscope and the findings make for fascinating reading.

Firstly, we have the busy racing expert hitting a 19.45% ROI from nearly 3000 bets since May 2018. This equates to a betting bank growth figure of 320% to our calculations and it’s very much a racing service with superb potential. Best of all, in an exclusive SBC deal you can sign-up for just £10 for 3 months if interested in what they offer (A saving of £64.99 on the usual 3 month cost)

Secondly, we examine the service claiming to be the UK’s #1 rated racing tipster. Other review sites think it merits this award, yet our deep analysis found several issues with this much-hyped service that you need to be aware of before considering joining!

If SBC 113 interests you, then it is available to download immediately with a Smart Betting Club membership. Sign-up now to gain your instant access!

Team Up With Part 1 Of Our ‘Bookies Nightmare’ Report

SBC 113 is the perfect companion to our other recent release – our very special Horse Racing ‘Tipster Profit Report’ as published earlier this month.

Focusing on 34 of the best racing tipsters SBC have reviewed since 2006, you can explore unique ratings, rankings, analysis and best buy tables to help you find the right expert for you.

Highlights inside include:

  1. The new Hall of Fame entrant up more than 142 points profit so far this year
  2. The racing expert with amazing longevity – more than 8000 tips advised and a 32% ROI to boot!
  3. The free-to-SBC-members racing tipster posting more than 1100 points profit since 2011
  4. The top rated racing guru with 84% betting bank growth since January.


Both these reports (and a lot more besides) are available with a Smart Betting Club membership! Sign-up now to gain your instant access!

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

SBC interviewed in new betting podcast series from gambling.com

For those of you keen to learn more on the Smart Betting Club and the concept of using tipsters for profit, then make sure you listen to a new betting podcast featuring SBC Editor, Peter Ling.

Interviewed as part of a new Gambling.com podcast series entitled ‘The Knowledge’, host Jessica Lamb explored several topics including the SBC review process, the tipping world itself, the concept of value betting and most crucially – dealing with the psychological challenges of betting for profit.

Those of you interested in listening to it, can do so now via SoundcloudSpotify or directly via your browser through this link

Clocking in at just under 25 minutes long, its a great opportunity to learn more about the work of the Smart Betting Club team and our quest to help ordinary punters make a profit betting using tipsters.

About The Knowledge

The Knowledge’ is a longform, bi-monthly podcast from Gambling.com which gets to the heart of the betting industry through interviews with some of the biggest names, spanning across a range of gambling genres. Think Ted Talks for punters, think education with a betting edge.

The series will cover a wide range of topics, including the key issues facing the gambling industry, the growth of online poker, the latest betting technologies being implemented, plus much more as Gambling.com brings listeners valuable insight from industry leading expert guests.

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

1 winner from 41 bets – Why you should follow this tipster

A Bookies Nightmare – that’s the theme of our latest Tipster Profit Report focusing exclusively on several very profitable Horse Racing Tipsters that continue to ride a wave of success.

Yet to balance it out today, and with this recent article on Value Betting firmly in my thoughts, I also wanted to outline a couple of reality checks on life following a racing tipster.

Not a reality check in the form of a worry these top rated experts don’t know their stuff. Because they do – the profits they make are real.

But a reality check in terms of what to expect when following a racing tipster

And the very strong reality that even the best betting experts suffer a losing run.

Because experience tells me that when a punter understands this – it becomes so much easier to follow tipsters and to avoid the one thing that catches most unwary punters out – quitting a tipster at exactly the wrong time.

Handling Losses A Rite of Passage For Any Tipster

One of the biggest warning signs I look for when observing a tipster is if they have never had a losing run of some kind.

In my experience, even the very best experts have losing months.

So if I see a racing tipster in business for 30 months, yet every single month has been profitable – well it sets alarm bells that all is not what it seems.

I wonder “Are these results legitimate?” and often when you dig deeper, they aren’t.

Simply because to go 30 months without making a loss in at least a few of them is unrealistic and unprobable.

It’s important to recognise that just because you pay to follow a tipster – this does not mean that they will not suffer occasional losing runs.

They will and its important to understand this.

Let me show you more with a couple of high-profile examples…

 

1 Winner In 37 Tips From This ‘Expert’

Firstly, lets use focus on ‘Tipster X’ – which is a very long-running racing service with a major edge.

This tipster has made 3669 points profit @ 12.4% ROI over more than 15,000 bets since 2014.

He knows how to make a profit betting and its been a ‘Hall of Fame’ rated service for several years now.

In our Racing Tipster Profit Report, we reported back on his latest progress since our last update, which saw 138 points profit made @ 26.89% ROI from 138 bets between May and August 2019.

A very nice profit indeed.

Yet, that isn’t the full story as within those 138 bets, there was plenty of ups and downs along the way.

Including a run from the 20th July of 38 bets and just 1 winner, during which this tipster lost 66.88 points.

That is a strike-rate of just 2.6%.

Fancy paying a tipster for that!?

Because had you joined on the 20th July or at some point during those 38 bets, you would have every right to question what took place.

Why was this top-rated tipster giving nothing but losers? After all, SBC rate him in their Hall of Fame and you have spent money to join him!

The reality is that this run of 38 losers was just randomness at play and as long as sticking firm, the rewards would flow as indeed they did.

Of the very next 83 bets advised since this run of losers, the service has made a 143.77 point profit.

Making back the 66.68 points lost and adding another 77.09 points profit on top!

This short-term run of losers was over and in some style and had you quit at the wrong time then you would be kicking yourself right now!

1 Winner in 41 From This 2nd ‘Expert’

To highlight how often this kind of thing happens, another highly rated expert we recommend – lets call him Tipster Y also had a similar bad run of form in August 2019.

During one period, he advised 41 bets and found just 1 winner, losing 22.24 points.

That is a strike-rate of just 2.5%.

Imagine paying for that kind of tipping advice!

Yet, despite this loss, over the 4 month period we covered between May and September, he actually made a total profit of 17.61 points @ 16% ROI from 199 bets.

And when you look back to the first 4 months of the year (Jan to April) he also made 41.04 points @ 53.78% ROI from 138 bets.

So the year is very nicely in profit despite this run of 1 winner from 41 at one point in time.

In total, 2019 sits up 58.65 points profit @ 31.36% ROI from 337 bets

Which once again goes to illustrate the need for patience, even with the best experts.

Have A High Odds / Low Strike-Rate Mentality

One thing both Tipster X and Tipster Y have is a focus on bigger price selections.

During their losing runs, the approximate average odds of a tip put forward by Tipster X was 11/1 and Tipster Y 17/2.

When you are backing at higher odds like this, your strike-rate will always be lower and there will be times when it gets really low as we saw with 1 in 38 and 1 in 41 above.

This is something I will be exploring in more detail in a forthcoming article on strike-rates and what to expect, but for now do be aware that the higher the strike-rate, the greater the likelihood of a losing run.

Whatever You Do – Don’t Quit At The Wrong Time!

I wanted to pen this article today not to scare you from using tipsters, but to just help provide some context on the reality of what to expect at times.

Betting professionally is never PROFIT, PROFIT, PROFIT – there will always be challenging times, yet with both the examples of Tipster X and Y above, you can be reassured that they know how to help you win as they have between them over 20 years of doing exactly that.

What I do want to encourage is the simple notion of having a longer-term and more patient mindset and to disabuse the idea that simply because you pay for tips, you will no longer have a bad run.

I do at times come across some punters unaware of this fact and they are likely the type who will have quit Tipster X or Tipster Y at some point during the losing runs I outlined above.

Which of course is exactly the worst thing you can do as significant profits were just around the corner.

Discover More With SBC

If you enjoyed this article and want to know more about the Smart Betting Club’s work reviewing and rating tipsters, you can read more on this at our Tipster Review Process section.

As that outlines, whether it be a horse racing, football, baseball, golf or tennis tipster under the review microscope – we leave no stone unturned in our quest to examine what is on offer and we focus very much on long-term profits.

Not just what a tipster made just last week or in August, but several years and often thousands of thousands of past bets.

Giving re-assurance that when we say a tipster is good, it really is.

If you like what you read – then you can join the Smart Betting Club at our lowest ever prices for 2019 and all with a money-back guarantee to boot.

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Founder

A Bookies Worst Nightmare – Special Horse Racing Tipster Profit Report

Discover the top racing experts to follow with your copy of our NEW Horse Racing Tipster Profit Report

Focusing on 34 of the best racing tipsters we have reviewed since 2006, you can explore our unique ratings, rankings, analysis and best buy tables to help you find the right expert for you.

Highlights inside include:

  1. The new Hall of Fame entrant up more than 142 points profit so far this year
  2. The racing expert with amazing longevity – more than 8000 tips advised and a 32% ROI to boot!
  3. The free-to-SBC-members racing tipster posting more than 1100 points profit since 2011
  4. The top rated racing guru with 84% betting bank growth since January.

You can access this Tipster Profit Report the instant you join the Smart Betting Club.

The Top Ten Low Cost Racing Tipsters

To showcase how this Racing Tipster Profit Report can help you, check out the extract taken from the Low Cost Tipster Table found within it below.

Although the names of each tipster are hidden (this is available to Smart Betting Club members only), you can see how much profit is being made for very little outlay each month.

The top low cost tipster has made an annualised profit figure of £4,285 for just £20 a month fees. You can also see we have a new entry this month at #4, which is free to follow for SBC members and has generated a £1,932 annualised profit.

Each of the top 10 low cost tipsters is making in excess of £1,100 annualised profit figures for less than a £30 outlay per month.

What is Annualised Profit and how do we generate the figures in the table above?

The Annualised Profit figure helps to put a tipsters results into context as it takes several performance figures together, including betting bank growth to provide an estimated yearly average profit figure.

This is judged if operating to a £2000 betting bank for each tipster to provide a standard comparison tool, although it’s important to make clear you don’t need as much as £2000 to get started – it is just a sum for easy comparison.

Find The Right Tipsters To Suit You!

This Tipster Profit Report is designed to help you find the very best betting tipsters – those that have proven themselves to be successful over a long period of time.

Anyone can pick a few winners every now and then but it takes REAL SKILL to beat the bookmaker over the long-term – which is exactly what this report reveals.

To help illustrate just how good the best tipsters are and to help find the right one for you, inside this report we break them down into different categories so you can easily compare:

  • The most profitable overall tipsters;
  • The best tipsters from the last 12 months only;
  • The best low cost tipsters;
  • The best free tipsters;
  • The best betting bank growth tipsters;
  • The best ‘odds availability’ tipsters (those that quote realistic prices);
  • And much more besides…

We also know that it’s not just profits in theory that you want but in practice. Which is why you can also view:

  • The Best ‘Adjusted Profits’ Tipsters – Discover how each tipsters profits stand up if betting 15 to 30 minutes after a tip is supplied (ideal if you are worried about not getting the advised prices)
  • Unique ‘Suggested Profits’ Tables– Discover how much money you need to risk on each tipster to make a profit – and how much you can make if doing so. Fully tailored to each tipster to be entirely realistic.

Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club and gain instant access


Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

Punting Insight: James Bond, The Professional Gambler? Understanding Value Betting

On a semi-regular basis, I like to deviate slightly from my usual posts and share with you betting articles of interest – those that can help both challenge and educate us as punters.

With that in mind, I have a fascinating article to put to you today, one written by a relatively new tipster we have begun proofing here at the Smart Betting Club by the name of ‘Insider Gambles ‘ on the theory behind successful value betting.

Although a fairly long article, it raises some incredibly useful points that any aspiring punter really needs to understand such as randomness and betting when the odds are in your favour – i.e. value betting.

All of the professional gamblers and tipsters that I have come into contact with use this form of value betting to inform the wagers they place, so understanding it is critical to your ongoing success.

If and when you do have a few minutes spare, please do give it a read as I feel it is the type of article you want to bookmark and return to especially when your betting gets tough.

My thanks to to Mick from Insider Gambles for giving me permission to publish this article. We are actively proofing the ‘Insider Gambler’s’ advice with a view to a detailed SBC review in 2020.

James Bond The Professional Gambler?

What image comes into your mind when you hear ‘professional gambler’?

A James Bond type, suave and handsome, standing at a roulette wheel, martini in hand and a gorgeous blonde draped over his shoulder? He pushes forward a huge pile of chips onto a number, and watches with smug certainty as the ball falls into the right slot…..

This is all absolute nonsense of course.

For a start, James Bond’s favourite game was baccarat not roulette. Secondly, if you shake a martini you chip the ice and just get a watered down drink. Thirdly, neither James Bond nor anyone else in the history of human civilization (fictional or real) has ever been able to accurately predict where the ball will finish on a roulette wheel. A roulette wheel is an efficient random number generator, and the only way to beat it is by having the odds on your side.

So why do successful gamblers win?

How do some investors make loads of money, when most investors lose?

Every successful professional gambler/investor in history has something in common; they bet with an EDGE.

An EDGE is having the odds in your favour. Over time, if the odds are in your favour then you’ll win.

So the reality of professional gambling is somewhat less glamorous than the James Bond fantasy. A pro gambler is much more likely to be found reading a newspaper, or playing with numbers in a spreadsheet than standing in a casino, drinking and flirting with blondes.

The reality of professional gambling is mostly a little dull, and unfortunately there’s no way of explaining the basics that will be a roller-coaster ride of page-turning excitement.

But….if you master the basics it is possible for you to become filthy stinking rich through professional betting.

The Warren Buffett Approach

Just look at Warren Buffett. He leads a frugal, slightly eccentric life, with his head buried in a newspaper most of the time. But depending on what the US stock market has done in the last couple of days, he may very well be the richest man in the world as you read this.

And all Warren Buffett has done his whole life is practice ‘value investing’. He’s a professional gambler. He bets on the share prices of companies. Buys them for less than they’re worth. Sells them for more than they’re worth. That’s it. He understand randomness, he recognises value and he has developed investing methods to turn that value into an edge. You can do it too. Albeit likely on a smaller scale. But theoretically, once you understand how to find an edge there really is no limit to how much you can win.

So think of this article as studying for your O-Level (giving my age away) in professional investing.

Make yourself a cup of tea, settle down and be ready to make some notes. By the end of this article you’ll be ready to pass your exam, armed with the knowledge of how Tony Bloom, Phil Ivey and Warren Buffett made their millions.

Occasionally people manage to win without an EDGE. For example a lottery winner doesn’t have an EDGE. Neither does a guy who flukes a 6 horse accumulator bet. Or someone who buys a company’s shares on spec, just before their shares rocket in value.

Bookmakers, casinos, lottery operators and stock brokers all make a living by selling the dream; ‘it could be you!’. But it almost certainly won’t be. For every guy on the front page of a paper celebrating a £multi-million lottery win there are countless millions of losers. 99.999% of people who buy lottery tickets will make a loss in their lifetime on their lottery ticket investments.

The ratio of winners to losers is broadly similar when you look at people who invest with bookmakers, casinos and stock exchanges. There’s a reason lottery operators get you to tick a box to allow them to publicise you if you win. By displaying you with your winnings, they sell the dream of ‘it could be you’.

Same with big winners at the bookies. The ‘dream’ is what distracts their customers from the reality that the odds are consistently, and hugely against them. The truth that they are overwhelmingly unlikely to actually make a profit; that it ‘will’ be you. Their customers effectively pay a bookie/casino/lottery operator for providing them with a hobby. And a dream.

Professional investors are rare, and they are different. They are not seduced by the dream of a single big win. They take luck out of the equation, and turn the odds in THEIR favour. They get an EDGE.

But how do you get an EDGE?

The process of getting an edge is in 3 Steps;

Randomness – Value – Edge.

This article will explain what that means. How you get to the EDGE. It first involves explaining some theoretical concepts; RANDOMNESS and VALUE. But don’t worry, the payoff for learning the theory comes when you get to the EDGE.

To Be A Good Punter You Need To Understand ‘Randomness’

The first step to becoming a successful investor is to understand RANDOMNESS.

RANDOMNESS is a theoretical concept that you need to ‘get’ before you can move on. It’s invisible, but you have to know that it’s there, and how it works. Like a physicist has to believe in, and understand gravity, even though he can’t actually see it.

Understanding RANDOMNESS is the opposite of believing in fate. Events are not pre-ordained. Events are chaotic, random. Nothing happens ‘for a reason’. Things just happen because events that take place, no matter how small, have an effect on everything around it.

The influence of the laws of cause and effect are at play all around us, every second of every day. Everywhere in the universe. From the moment of the big bang. Anything that can happen, might happen. It will happen, if you wait long enough.

Everything that happens in the universe does so within a framework, the ‘laws’ of how the universe works. The rules of the game. Our best way of describing these laws is with;

  1. The standard model of particle physics
  2. Einstein’s general law of relativity

Essentially the force of gravity and the speed of light are fixed. Everything that happens in the universe conforms to these laws, but what actually happens within the framework that these create is random, chaotic.

There is loads of stuff in the universe, moving around, so it is interacting all the time with lots of other stuff. Even the tiniest event, the briefest collision between the most tiny and insignificant of these can set off a chain reaction that leads to a radically different outcome than would be observed if the tiny event hadn’t taken place.

Ok, enough already with the physics! What the hell has all this got to do with gambling? With sport, poker or the price of a company’s shares?

Everything.

Because games of sport, hands of cards and the economies of the world all work in the same way as the universe, fundamentally. There are rules. And there is randomness. That’s all.

Take a football match. The rules are fixed. There will be 22 players, a referee, a rectangular field and 2 sets of goals. The referee will blow his whistle and the players will start to play.

What happens over the next 90+ minutes on that rectangle is random.

There is a discernible and predictable pattern to the randomness for sure. We can know that it’s likely that the better players will play better. The team with more of the better players is more likely to win. The number of goals scored is most likely to be between 2 and 4. Etcetera.

We can know these things, these ‘likelihoods’, by observation and research, considering data on previous similar occurrences, i.e. other football matches, especially those involving these teams and these players.

But what we can’t do is predict EXACTLY what will happen.

From the moment the referee blows his whistle to start the match there are a virtually infinite number of possibilities of how the game might play out. Every decision a player makes, every spin and deflection of the ball, every instruction given by the coach, each breath of wind, every noise from the crowd that the players hear, every decision by the officials….they all come together to create a narrative, a story on a timeline across the 90 minutes that describes exactly what happened. And if you played the match a trillion times, the story would never be exactly the same twice.

This is because every variable is multiplied by every other variable to come up with the total number of possible storylines.

In the infinite number of storylines a % of them will result in the score ending nil-nil. A different % will be 1-nil, 2-nil, 3-1 etc. A much smaller % will result in the score ending 8-4. If it’s possible that it can happen, it will happen, even if it’s a tiny % of the time.

Every possible outcome will be included in the % distribution of different scorelines that result from our infinite number of storylines. We can look to this distribution to observe the implications of the rules of the game, the framework within which it operates.

None of the storylines will end up yielding a score of 5,000-nil. The rules of the game are that you play for 90 minutes (plus a bit more) and that after a goal the ball gets placed back on the centre spot. The clock continues to run while the ball is returned to the middle. So there isn’t enough time for a team to score 5,000 goals in a football match. That possibility exceeds the framework of the game established by the rules, so it will never happen. Nothing will ever travel faster than the speed of light.

In our infinite number of football match storylines the upper end of the total number of goals scored might by something like 60. Incredibly, mind-bendingly rare though such a match might be – it is possible that one match could yield 60 goals. And if it’s possible that it could happen, then it will happen. Eventually.

Nothing will ever travel faster than the speed of light. That is one of our laws of the universe. Things can and will travel at any speed up to and including the speed of light, but nothing over that.

Value Betting Is No Guarantee ‘Something Will Happen’ (Or A Bet Will 100% WIN)

So what are the practical implications for a professional gambler of understanding this RANDOMNESS theory?

First, you understand that fundamentally predictions are useless. It is impossible to predict exactly what will happen because the number of actual possible storylines is infinite.

But it is possible to guess at the pattern of likelihoods in advance. That is the best we can do, and it what we must do.

We know that, within the framework, all the things that are possible will occur a certain % of times. The job of the professional gambler is to discern the pattern in the RANDOMNESS.

To say ‘how likely’ something is to happen. Not to say what ‘will happen’.

Where the subject involves animate objects, like the players, officials, fans, pitch and weather of a football match then the pattern in the RANDOMNESS cannot be projected precisely. It involves an element of guesswork. Observation, such as watching previous matches involving the teams, or analysis by looking at a league table can make the guesswork more accurate than a guess plucked from thin air. Modelling the relative strengths of the teams and the players using sophisticated analysis, and then feeding that into an engine which works out a distribution of possible scorelines can get you pretty close to projecting the % distribution within the infinite storylines. But it’s still guesswork, even when it’s very informed guesswork using a computer model.

But where the subject involves an inanimate object such as a roulette wheel or a drum of lottery balls then we can be can be absolutely precise in discerning the patterns in the RANDOMNESS. So long as the roulette wheel (let’s use a European wheel here with a single 0) is well made, and working properly then the % distribution of the ball falling into each slot will be 2.7% over an infinite number of spins of the wheel.

It will be 2.7% in slot 0, and exactly the same % in slots 8, 13, 28, 31….. The % distribution of the ball falling into a slot numbered 57 will be 0%. The framework of a roulette wheel is defined by the rules of how many slots it has. Our wheel has 37 slots, so the number of times a ball will fall in a slot other than one of these 37 is the same number of times our football match will have with 61 goals. And the same as the number of times an object will move faster than the speed of light. Zero.

When two boxers get in a ring the better fighter will normally win. But the rules of the ring dictate that either fighter could win. So there doesn’t have to be a ‘reason’ why Buster Douglas knocked out Mike Tyson. Randomness means that it was inevitable that it would happen at some point, if you iterated that fight over many times. It just happened to be that night.

When a roulette wheel spins it is randomness that governs which slot it falls into.

There is no memory to the wheel, no number is ‘due’ to come up just because it hasn’t come out for ages. In 1913 in the Monte Carlo Casino the ball in a roulette wheel landed in a black slot 26 times in a row. The odds of that happening were over 67 million to 1. So while it was surprising to the onlookers (and ruinous to the ‘red backers’!) the sequence was actually no more surprising than any of the other 67 million possible storylines that the 26 spins could have produced.

So the point of learning the theory of randomness is to realise that predictions are useless to a professional gambler, because they are impossible.

It is impossible to see into the future. It is one of the immutable laws of nature. Part of the framework.

We need to understand that our job is to discern the patterns in the randomness. To say how likely something is to happen. Not to say what we think will happen.

Once we understand this principle we can move on to VALUE.

Value Betting – The Odds In Your Favour

VALUE mean finding investment opportunities where the odds are in your favour.

VALUE is backing something with a 50% chance of happening at odds of 11 to 10.

If anything can happen. And we can’t know what is going to happen. How can we profit from betting on something that is going to take place in the future?

The answer is that all you need is to be armed with an idea of how likely something is to happen. And then, to know that the chance of it happening is greater than the odds you get when you make your investment.

It’s all about the odds.

An investment is risking something in the hope of a profitable return. The profit you make when you win, divided by the amount you risked are the odds.

So if you bet £100 on a horse, and it wins, and you get £400 back then your profit was £300. 300 over 100 is 3 over 1. Your odds were 3 to 1.

On this occasion the horse won. But how likely was it to win? If we ran the race a million times, on how many occasions would our horse win? What is the pattern in the distribution of the randomness? Lets say out of a million races our horse wins 200k times. The pattern in the randomness is that our horse’s true chance of winning the race is 800k over 200k. Or 8 over 2, which is 4 over 1. 4/1 are the horse’s true odds.

If we bet a million times on our horse at 3/1 we would lose money. We would get back £800k having staked £1m. Our loss would be £200k. 200k is 20% of 1m. 3/1 is ‘bad value’ for that horse, to the tune of 20%.

But if we could get 5/1 about the horse the sums become £1.2m return on our £1m stake. The horse becomes Value, at 20%.

When I say the ‘horse’ becomes value, I don’t really mean the horse. I mean the odds of 5/1 are value. Where odds of 3/1 are not. The horse is, effectively, irrelevant. What matters is the odds that you get, not the horse itself. Every horse, no matter how slow has a chance of winning any race that it lines up for. Those are the rules. That is the framework that we are operating in.

So if a horse is so slow that it will only win 1% of the time then its true odds are 99/1. If you can bet on that horse, slowcoach that it is, at odds of 100/1 or better then it’s a Value bet.

What happens in the race on any single occasion doesn’t make the bet a bad bet. Single results don’t prove whether something was value or not, whether it was a good bet to make or a bad bet.

The truth of value investing only reveals itself over time.

There’s a paradox that gamblers have to get their head around. The difference between short term and long term. The only thing matters is winning overall, in the long term.

But winning on any one single occasion barely matters at all.

Value investing is a war waged though a series of many, many battles. Winning or losing any single battle does not really matter. Looking back on all the battles, from a position of triumph having prevailed in the war, the fuss that you made about the loss of any single battle will seem ridiculous.

Value investing is nothing to do with trying to win every battle. The only thing that matters is having the odds on your side consistently as you fight the battles, so that as a the results of a great number of battle becomes known your superiority becomes apparent.

Even great football teams lose some games. The best poker players regularly lose loads of hands. The best investors buy shares in companies who go bust. The best golfers make bogies. Champion jockeys lose far more races than they win. Short term losses are ultimately irrelevant. All that matters is long term overall victory.

So this is the concept of value; investing with the odds in your favour.

There is a neat, simple mantra for any professional investor to adhere to; Decisions Not Results.

If you keep making the right decisions, keep betting with the odds in your favour, keep finding Value then as long as you stay in the game for the long term you will end up a winner.

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I hope you enjoyed this article – if you have any feedback on it, please do share your thoughts with me via email – pete@smartbettingclub.com

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Editor

Another 117.8 points profit in the past week for these Free Tipsters. Grab your access now!

Further to my article last Thursday on the outstanding performance of our ‘Free Tipster’ Group who between them were up 253.64 points profit, yet more winnings have been made over the past 7 days to further boost the coffers for those shrewd enough to be following.

In total another 117.8 points profit have been added to the tally with 4 of the 5 free tipsters making a fine wedge in the past week alone.

This form ensured August ended on a high and September got off to a flyer…

If this group of free tipsters interests you, access to their advice is available with a Smart Betting Club membership – available now for as little as £27.99 per quarter

Latest Tipster Profits Rundown

You can view a full rundown on each free tipster and their recent and long-term results via this link:

Free Tipster Results Spreadsheet

Simply click each tab to view the results for each tipster and see what they have achieved to date.

Below you can find a brief rundown on each tipster and the extra profits made in the last week alone…

The Turf Buddy Racing Tips
Up an extra 100.2 points profit in the last week!
Latest Figures: 307.5 points profit @ 25.84% ROI

Kieran Ward’s Value Racing Tips
Up an extra 13.49 points profit in the last week!
Latest Figures: 1110.18 points profit @ 10.32% ROI

The Poacher Football Tips – PreMatch & In-Play
Pre-Match
Up an extra 3.82 points profit in the last week!
Latest Figures: 15.18 points profit @ 7.5% ROI

In-Play (started end of March 2019)
Up an extra 2.29 points profit in the last week!
Latest Figures: 2.12 points profit @ 2.26% ROI

The Inside Man’s Football Tips
Down 2 points profit in the last week
Latest Figures: 7.37 points profit @ 5.72% ROI

PGA Profits Golf Tips
No bets advised last week (they return on the 9th Sept)
Latest Figures: 334.52 points profit @ 19.3% ROI

Follow These Tipsters With Your Risk-Free SBC Membership

The tipsters mentioned above are available to follow for free each day as part of a Smart Betting Club membership.

Once a member, simply choose the tipster(s) you wish to follow and sign-up to get their selections sent via email by following the links in the SBC ‘Free Tips’ members only section.

So, if you are looking to get started betting with tipsters and don’t want to splash the cash on expensive tipster subscription fees, its an ideal solution to get you started.

Best of all, you can now sign-up totally risk-free thanks to our money back guarantee,which ensures if you find our service (and these free tipsters) not for you, then you can get a full refund.

Meaning you have everything to gain and nothing to lose from joining our exclusive club!

Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club and gain instant access


Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

4 new tipster reviews, 4 different ways to profit – read the latest expert SBC Magazine

The very latest SBC Magazine (Issue 112) is now available and it features incisive reviews on 4 different winning tipsters including:

  1. Laying Profits – The football service up 219 points profit since 2016 laying away teams on the betting exchanges;
  2. South American Football Expert – The Latin America tipster with 3 seasons of profit betting in Asian Handicap & Over/Under goals markets;
  3. Betfair SP Winners – The horse racing guru up 14.25% ROI @ Betfair SP in the past 3 years;
  4. The Ideal ‘Newcomer’ Tipster – Our review of the Matchday Profits service – making big profits from small stakes for the past 4 seasons.

So whether it be football or racing that interests you or whether you prefer to bet with bookmakers, exchanges or bet brokers, there is something for everyone in this latest magazine.

SBC 112 is available to download immediately with a Smart Betting Club membership. Sign-up now to gain your instant access!

Get The Full SBC Membership Package From Just £2.15 Per Week

You can now join the Smart Betting Club and take advantage of our lowest EVER membership prices for 2019.

From as little as £27.99 + VAT per quarter, you can get started immediately and access the ENTIRE Smart Betting Club service including all our SBC MagazinesTipster Profit ReportsFree TipstersPro Betting Guides & more.

This includes access to our full 13 year back catalogue and no quibble money back guarantee if you join and don’t like what is on offer (unlikely!).

£27.99 per quarter works out at just £2.15 per week – less than the cost of the Racing Post.

It’s our best ever SBC membership deal and with our amazing money back guarantee offer you have everything to gain and nothing to lose.

Subscribe Now to the Smart Betting Club