One of the best podcasts I have heard in a long-time dropped on Thursday with an exceptional discussion featuring analyst Joseph Buchdahl on the reality of betting for anyone that has aspirations of winning.
Joseph was the latest guest on the Pro Bet Podcast hosted by Mark Holder and Andrew Lowrie (2 former SBC podcast guests no less) and one of the topics he constantly referred to was how key it is to understand losing runs and how to handle them.
Its critical because no matter how good you are as a bettor, simple maths and probability dictate you will have losing runs at some point in your betting journey.
It is therefore how you handle, understand and prepare for them that often makes the difference between carving out a profit long-term or not.
Many punters ignore this at their cost – perhaps because they don’t want to think about losing and what it might be like when a bad run hits.
Yet take it from me – understanding this concept and the things that Joseph talks about in this episode is 100% crucial to long-term success.
MY ‘CONTROVERSIAL’ ARTICLE ON LOSING RUNS
This podcast episode also made me reflect on an article I wrote nearly 2 years ago on understanding losing sequences and the probability that underpins them. An article that is still hugely relevant today but one that seemed to be controversial at the time judging by some of the feedback received.
After publishing it, I had emails telling me “Why would anyone follow that tipster” but of course, those people entirely missed the point.
It’s not about the tipster in question (who has a 20 year profitable record no less) and all about the mathematics that underpin value betting.
This is because even the most hardened professionals have stories on losing runs that can make your eyes water.
If you meet someone who doesn’t, likely they are lying about the fact they are a professional!
No tipster or bettor will ever escape them and it’s only by embracing and understanding sequences and probability (some actual very simple concepts) that will you know what to do when the time comes.
So here is that article again. I hope you enjoy it and if you do – make sure you listen to Joseph Buchdahl’s interview!
THE RECOMMENDED TIPSTER WITH 26 LOSERS IN A ROW
Be honest with yourself. How likely are you to stick with a tipster, no matter how good their reputation, if they put up 26 losing bets in a row?
Chances are that most people, especially if paying for tips would throw in the towel long before they placed the 27th bet.
Yet, that is exactly the situation that unfolded with the SBC Hall of Fame service – the Daily Bargain in October 2020 when the first 26 bets of the month all lost.
(A Hall of Fame service is simply one of those we fully advocate to SBC members after several years of monitoring, thousands of results and deep analysis of the tipster in question)
As Steve who oversees the Daily Bargain puts up 1 bet a day, that was 26 days of consecutive losers, which will no doubt have seen some posing questions such as why have we at SBC recommended this service in the first place?
It must be some kind of mistake or perhaps even a scam as surely no subscription charging tipster could ever put up 26 losers in a row, could they?
Well, yes they can and in today’s article I am going to explain why as part of a very important discussion on mathematical sequences.
WHY UNDERSTANDING SEQUENCES IS VITAL WHEN BETTING
Many losing bettors are fooled by their lack of understanding of sequences in relation to the odds and strike-rate of the tipster they follow.
A run of 26 losers in a row, whilst sounding unlikely, is in fact entirely reasonable to expect given the strike-rate of the Daily Bargain.
The historical strike-rate for this service over 2500 bets since 2012 has sat at about 15%. Just under 1 in 7 bets win.
When we run this past the wonderful ‘Don’t Go Broke’ article I regularly reference from the Daily Bargain website itself, a tipster with a 15% strike-rate is rated to have as follows:
- A 75% chance of 25 losers in sequence
- A 50% chance of 30 losers in sequence
- A 25% chance of 36 losers in sequence
So as unlikely as it sounds a run of 26 losers in sequence is reasonably likely to happen over a large enough sample size.
The above is important as it gets to the heart of a flawed viewpoint that many punters wrongly believe – that if you pay for tips, you should win more often.
The reality is that you will continue to win just as often as the strike-rate of the tipster dictates. If the tipster wins 15% of the time, you will still win 15% of the time long-term.
Over the course of a short-term period, you will always see fluctuations in that – just as we saw in the first 26 bets of October 2020 for the Daily Bargain when it hit a 0% strike-rate.
Yet, what I haven’t yet discussed in this article is what happened between the 29th October and the 2nd November 2020 as you might have guessed by now…things changed!
Each of the 5 bets advised during this period by the Daily Bargain all won to make back the losses incurred in the first 26 bets of October and add plenty of profit on top.
To simple 1 point stakes, a deficit of -26 points had risen to a profit of +17.67 points.
A swing of 43.67 points in your favour.
What a turnaround and reward for those following during the fallow days of October for their patience. The losing run had been easily absorbed.
Taken as a whole, over the course of the 31 bets between the 1st October and 2nd November, this saw 31 bets advised, with 5 bets winning.
Which equates to…you guessed it a 16.12% strike-rate of success.
Just a smidgen above what the service has achieved long-term since 2012.
It is also worth pointing out here that during those 26 bets in October without a winner, 6 of them placed, finishing 2nd or 3rd at odds of 20/1, 10/1, 7/1, 7/1, 13/2, 11/2. So, it is not as if they all ran badly – sometimes it’s just a series of near misses that go against you, during a bad run. You must remain patient for the rewards to come your way.
THE SAME MATHS APPLY WHETHER PAYING FOR TIPS OR NOT
The truth is that even if paying for a quality tipster service like the Daily Bargain, there is no getting away from the maths that underpin betting.
So don’t be fooled into the notion that if paying for tips, they will lose less.
They will lose the same amount as their long-term strike-rate dictates. In the Daily Bargain’s case – 15% of the time, they will win. 85% of the time they will lose.
What will change is the profits you make based on the odds you place the bets at.
Because as long as taking a value price, such as the Daily Bargain advocates, then over the course of time, you will end up in profit.
Yet these profits never come in a straight line. You might get 26 losers in a row; you might get 5 winners in a row. You will have losing months and sometimes they unfold over several months.
The sequences will change. At times they will frustrate you and at others they will delight you. You simply have to be patient and not fall into the trap that gets so many punters who don’t understand the simple mathematics behind sequences.
The trick is not to micro-manage and live out your results day-to-day, week-to-week or even month-to-month.
If you do so, you might fall into the trap of quitting too soon. Like any punters that stopped following the Daily Bargain after the 26th loser in October 2020.
THE IMPORTANCE OF A BETTING BANK
To help you cope with sequences, you also need a betting bank to cover yourself when bad runs hit.
This is why we recommend a 100 points bank for the Daily Bargain, because even if you joined on the 1st October, you would have only lost 26% of your bank at that point.
Come the 2nd November, you would have been up 17.67 points or 17.67% of your bank.
The betting bank is there to help keep your staking in check when a bad run hits, because all bettors, no matter how experienced do feel the pain of losing to some degree.
Over time and once you have ridden this storm a few times, it gets easier to handle, but if new to betting in this way and if you struggle to keep focus when in a losing spree, a betting bank is absolutely crucial.
Don’t forget either that each individual bet you place is almost always totally disconnected from the last bet you placed (assuming placed on different games/races)
So just because your last bet won or lost, it makes it no likelier that your next bet will do the same.
The horse running in the 3.10 at Kempton you have just backed has no idea that the horse you backed yesterday in the 2.20 at Wolverhampton lost.
It’s a completely different race with different horses, jockeys and conditions entirely. So try not to think about runs of ‘good form’ or ‘bad form’ and instead focus on the bigger picture.
That alongside a greater understanding of the betting strike-rate can make a world of difference to your betting.
And as ever you also need patience. Patience in abundance at times, but for those of you able to apply this to your betting – the rewards are there with the right tipsters.
DISCOVER MORE ON TOP TIPSTERS & HOW TO WIN WITH SBC
If you are interested in learning more about both the top tipsters we recommend AND what it takes to win long-term as a bettor, then you might like to consider a Smart Betting Club membership.
Not only do we guide you as to the best tipsters to follow like the Daily Bargain, via our Hall of Fame ratings and regular Tipster Profit Reports.
But we also do our best to explain, educate and inform on how to setup like a professional and handle the psychological swings of betting.
For every tipster we review and recommend we give ratings and scores on things like risk and profitability as well as guidance on the size betting bank you need if following.
You can also read the Pro Gambler Blueprint guide (65 page PDF) and our special 54-page Betting Psychology Guide, entitled ‘How to get the Betting X-Factor‘ as an SBC member.
Furthermore, you can also save on quality tipsters such as the Daily Bargain thanks to the discounts we offer SBC members. For example, you can enjoy an extra month free of charge to the Daily Bargain as an SBC member if subscribing to them.
Best of all you can sign-up today and enjoy a full money back guarantee if not satisfied by what we offer. Membership is available from as little as £29.99 per quarter.
Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club and gain instant access