Closing Line Value

Bet Hero Founder Juan Explains How One of the Best Value Betting Tools Was Built

Posted on by Peter Ling

In Episode 104, I chatted with Juan, founder of Bet Hero, the value betting platform recently reviewed and recommended in SBC Magazine 164.

​Learn more about that review here and how you can save up to €215.80 on Bet Hero with the exclusive SBC member discount before the end of June 2026

Juan explains how his journey into betting began not through gambling, but by identifying inefficiencies in other markets. From building software to profit from sneaker releases, GPUs and collectibles, his background in computer science and automation naturally led him into arbitrage and eventually value betting.

The discussion explores the difference between arbitrage and value betting, why expected value is the foundation of long term success, and how Bet Hero evolved from a simple Discord alert bot into a platform covering more than 400 sportsbooks worldwide.

Pete and Juan analyse SBC’s review of 16,488 bets producing a 4.06% ROI, explaining why ROI alone can be misleading, the importance of closing line value, and how successful users maximise returns through volume, discipline and focusing on EV rather than short term results.

Finally, Juan discusses Bet Hero’s unique pricing model using multiple sharp sources, alongside Kelly staking, middling, and the ongoing battle to stay ahead of increasingly sophisticated bookmakers.

You can listen to Episode 104 FREE now via Apple / Spotify / YouTube and all other major podcast directories (search Smart Betting Club)

You can also support the SBC Podcast by visiting our podcast sponsor, Matchbook. You can get 150 days, commission free with them via this link.

Topics covered include

  • From sneaker reselling and software engineering into sports betting
  • Why expected value is more important than individual results
  • Building the first Bet Hero Discord bot
  • Growing from a personal tool into a platform covering 400+ sportsbooks
  • Why underserved betting regions create opportunities
  • Why ROI must be viewed alongside turnover and betting volume
  • The habits of Bet Hero’s most successful users
  • Why higher odds and lower strike rates can still offer excellent value
  • Building fair odds using multiple sharp sources rather than only Pinnacle
  • The role of exchanges and prediction markets in modern pricing
  • Adding middling betting and future Bet Hero developments

Bet Hero: One Of The Best Value Betting Tools We’ve Tested

​In SBC 164, we took an in-depth look at Bet Hero. This powerful value betting platform uses proprietary fair odds modelling, covers more than 400 sportsbooks and goes far beyond simple Pinnacle comparisons.

What stood out most was its consistency. Across a huge sample of 16,488 bets, Bet Hero generated profits in every month we tracked and performed strongly across all odds ranges.

This is one of the most detailed reviews we’ve ever published, covering performance, bookmaker coverage, staking, practical usage and strategies for maximising results.

It impressed us so much that we’re now using it ourselves here at SBC.

As an SBC member, you can claim an exclusive 20% discount on any Bet Hero monthly or yearly plan, saving up to €215.80 on the annual Pro package.

This special offer is available through June only, making now the perfect time to take advantage of one of the strongest value betting tools we’ve reviewed.

Access Issue 164 and the entire 20 year back catalogue with a SBC Membership​

  • Profits generated in every month tracked.
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  • Consistent performance across all odds ranges.
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  • Proprietary fair odds model using multiple sharp bookmaker references.
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  • Coverage of more than 400 sportsbooks worldwide
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  • Football, basketball and tennis providing the bulk of opportunities
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  • Exclusive 20% SBC member discount worth up to €215.80, available through June only

European Basketball Tipster Demetrio Giotti Delivers 22.3% ROI in 2024/25

Posted on by Peter Ling

Beating Pinnacle and the market on a sharp sport is no easy task — but once again during the 2024/25 season, Demetrio Giotti, SBC’s expert European basketball tipster, has done exactly that.

Since launching his service in 2016, Demetrio has delivered exceptional returns in one of the toughest betting arenas out there. Across his official bets he has produced:

  • 259.5 units profit
  • 15% ROI from over 925 bets

In 2024–25, he once again proved his edge:

  • +40.4 units profit on official bets resulting in an 80.8% ROC (Return on Capital)
    With the average recommended bankroll of €4,000, that translates to a profit of € 3,232 (before subscription fees)
  • 22.3% ROI across 103 bets
  • +11.3 units profit on extra unofficial bets at a 24.0% ROI


His Edge At Advised & Closing Prices

But it’s not just headline results that impress. His value is backed by hard data, including the fact that even betting at closing odds with Pinnacle, his ROI is 7.82%.

Of course – it’s better to bet on Demetrio’s selections earlier than this, and at his advised prices (where he had a 22.3% ROI and 80.8% ROC last season) , yet it showcases 1) his edge on closing prices and 2) his knowledge of European Basketball leagues and competitions.

In other words, even if you couldn’t grab the advised prices, just betting close to tip-off would still have made you a 62.4% ROC at the very least!  With the average recommended bankroll of € 4,000, that translates to a profit of € 2,496 (before subscription fees)

Demetrio’s approach is built on discipline, precision, and patience — and it shows in his end-of-season message below. More than just a recap, it’s a roadmap for how to think like a serious bettor. It explains how to ride out drawdowns, why bankroll discipline matters, and how to judge whether you still hold an edge. It’s well worth your time.

If you want to join Demetrio for the 2025–26 campaign, now’s the time to join his waiting list.

Enter your email below to be notified when Demetrio opens up for the 2025/26 season:

 

End-of-Season Message from Demetrio Giotti:

Hello,

A great season comes to an end with both official (40.4u / 22.3% ROI) and unofficial bets (11.3u / 24.0% ROI) performing superbly, as we bounce back from a break-even 2023-24 campaign.

When the season ends, I usually prepare a small review highlighting key facts and metrics, but this time, I decided to do something different. I will take you back exactly one year when I posted last season’s (2023-24) review. Please do yourself a favor and read the following carefully. Even better, save this email and when the next drawdown hits, read it again. I promise, it will make you a much more successful bettor and investor.

So, here’s an excerpt from that review:

“If you joined in early 2024 as I know a few of you did, it was obviously really bad luck and timing. It’s probably the second worst thing that can happen to a bettor. Joining a tipster service right after a very hot start, only to experience a big drawdown the following period. I’m saying it’s the second worst thing because there’s something even worse. That’s quitting altogether and taking the loss after a poor start, only to see the service recover and reach new highs a few months later.

Personally, I try to view periods of the inevitable drawdowns in sports betting as unrealized losses. You lose only when you decide to quit. You win when you stay the course following a proven and profitable long-term strategy. Easier said than done obviously in times when emotions are running high. I know how psychologically draining drawdowns can be, but in periods such as these, you need objective facts not letting emotions take over.

Speaking of objective facts, as the following numbers (during this drawdown) indicate beyond any doubt, the edge of the service remains intact. In other words, nothing more than negative variance at play.

In terms of drawdowns, we slightly exceeded the 2020 levels (25.1 units in 2020, 26.7 units now in 2024), so nothing out of the ordinary really. And you can see what followed right after. Cumulatively a little over 97 units won during the 2021-2023 period. I don’t have a crystal ball to predict the future but there is nothing to suggest that we won’t bounce back sooner or later…”

Fast forward one year, and that message aged like fine wine — 100% accurate, zero guesswork. Still no crystal ball though… Just cold math and stubborn patience!

Do realize that drawdowns in sports betting are inevitable no matter how profitable the strategy or tipster you follow are. So, instead of panicking and acting irrationally when the next one hits, here’s a step-by-step guide on how to deal with them:

Step 1-> Establish how deep a drawdown can get beforehand. In the case of my service, 20 to 30 units of drawdown are completely normal and will INEVITABLY happen once in a while. In fact, using the advanced analytics from the SBC review of my service, we can see there is a 1% chance of even hitting 40 units. Sure, it’s very unlikely, but still within the realm of possibilities.

Now, because 20 or 30 units may sound abstract, always calculate what that number would look like in your currency. So, if you are using for example a $4000 bankroll, then your stake per unit is $80, which means a 25-unit drawdown equals a 25 X $80 = $2000 (temporary) loss. Be prepared mentally for drawdowns like that (or even worse!), so you don’t get caught by surprise or spooked when these happen.

One last thing to keep in mind. I’ve been betting for nearly 15 years and I can tell you from experience that drawdowns are ALWAYS tough. Sure, they become a bit easier to handle over time, but extended losing runs test your patience and mental strength. But like any challenge, if you’re prepared, you’ll get through it and come out ahead. If not, it can be a really tough lesson. Just ask those who gave up last season during a perfectly normal drawdown. They’re probably kicking themselves now. Don’t let that be you!

TLDR-> Understand the inevitability of drawdowns and be prepared mentally and financially for the worst-case scenario.

Step 2-> During any drawdown, it’s important to assess whether the bets you’re placing are still +EV—that is, profitable over the long term. While not a perfect metric, the most reliable way to gauge this is by looking at Closing Line Value (CLV). This means checking how often and by how much, the odds you bet at are better than the closing odds at Pinnacle. If most of your bets are still consistently beating the closing line, that’s a strong sign you’re on the right track. In that case, you should keep placing those bets as usual and simply wait for the laws of probabilities to eventually work in your favor.

TLDR-> Make sure you are still betting with an edge.

Step 3-> It probably goes without saying, but I’m going to say it anyway. We are using a bankroll and precise stakes for a reason and that is to absorb any drawdowns without going bankrupt. So, if you are not using one by now, you are setting yourself up for failure.

Finally, when the next losing streak comes, don’t try to use “creative” strategies like doubling your stakes to gain back losses faster. Sure, it might work once or twice, but it will eventually backfire. So, stick to the plan, and don’t overcomplicate things or try to fix what isn’t broken.

TLDR-> Always have an appropriate bankroll and follow the staking plan religiously.

Follow these steps and you won’t fail when the next drawdown hits.

Finally, to drive the point home, please read this short article.

https://bettingiscool.com/2017/11/09/the-single-biggest-mistake-punters-make-by-russell-clarke/

Now, regarding next season, we will have an early start, as EuroBasket 2025 (27 Aug. – 14 Sept.) takes place in late August. This means that subscriptions for the 2025–26 season will open sometime in early August.

After a strong season, demand for a spot will most likely increase, although the cap will still remain at 50 spots. Naturally, priority will be given to those who have been with me for the past two years, followed by members who joined during the most recent season. I believe this is only fair.

That’s all for now. Enjoy your summer, and I’ll see you in August!

Best regards,

Demetrio Giotti

 

Looking Ahead to 2025–26

This is a no-nonsense service with proven results — and it’s limited to just 50 members per season. With EuroBasket 2025 starting in August, demand is already building.

If you want to join Demetrio for the 2025–26 campaign, now’s the time to join his waiting list.

Enter your email below to be notified when Demetrio opens up for the 2025/26 season:

Secure your spot, back a proven edge, and get ready for a profitable season ahead.

 

? Automatic CLV Tracking Added To SBC Proofing & Review Process ?

Posted on by Josh P

When it comes to evaluating tipsters, one of the most reliable metrics we can use is Closing Line Value (CLV).

Why?

Because simply looking at profit and loss figures often doesn’t tell the full story. Results can be skewed by variance or small sample sizes – CLV cuts through all of that.

If a tipster is consistently beating the closing line, especially with sharp bookmakers like Pinnacle, it’s a strong sign they’re identifying genuine value and making smart bets.

They are tipsters or services we want to consider following with our own money.

That’s why we’re excited to be incorporating the methodology behind Track-A-Bet – the latest product from Christian Baier—into our proofing and review processes here at SBC.

This tool adds another layer of insight, helping us assess tipsters not just on outcomes, but on the underlying quality of their advice.

We also have produced some specific SBC Member user-guides on Track A Bet (both a video & written) to explain how it works further.

A Real Life Example

Let’s use this real-life betting record to illustrate: 183 bets at level stakes, average odds of 1.95 (or 19/20 in fractional odds), a profit of 20.49 points and a ROI of 11.15%. This is brilliant, right? We’ve found the next Patrick Veitch or Tony Bloom!

 

Maybe, but this tipster’s CLV suggests not. Despite the profit made during this snapshot sample, we would actually have expected these bets to lose 4.7 points with a -2.56% ROI considering the closing prices with Pinnacle.

This came from a recent submission to the SBC from a football tipster. Were they being disingenuous or lying about their bets? No, it appears that they were being ‘fooled by randomness’ into believing that luck was skill.

We would expect the red and orange lines to converge over time and unfortunately in this case – we’d be lucky to break even once the sample reaches 1,830 or 18,300 bets.

What Are We Doing With This Data?

We have always looked at the closing line at the SBC but this data allows us to do a few things that we couldn’t do before:

  1. We can now separate out the very best tipsters from the rest quickly, without having to collect larger samples or manually run checks on how bets are performing against the closing line
  2. We can incorporate this data into our reviews, with graphs and tables used to clearly demonstrate how much value bets are finding

This, alongside all of our other deeper analytics around things like drawdowns, betting banks and odds sensitivity mean that our commentary and conclusions will now have even more depth to help you find the right services for you!

Sign Up For Access

We have created two user guides for SBC Members on the Track A Bet product – one written piece and one 15-minute video walkthrough – so in addition to the packed reviews referenced above, you can get instant access to both of those (and all of our other Intelligence) too!

It takes just minutes to get this access – you can get a full membership by clicking here, choosing your subscription and entering your details – you will then be ‘in’!

If you have any questions about our work on CLV, our reviews or anything else, please get in touch!