Want to win at betting? Learn about losing first

One of the best podcasts I have heard in a long-time dropped on Thursday with an exceptional discussion featuring analyst Joseph Buchdahl on the reality of betting for anyone that has aspirations of winning.

Joseph was the latest guest on the Pro Bet Podcast hosted by Mark Holder and Andrew Lowrie (2 former SBC podcast guests no less) and one of the topics he constantly referred to was how key it is to understand losing runs and how to handle them.

Its critical because no matter how good you are as a bettor, simple maths and probability dictate you will have losing runs at some point in your betting journey.

It is therefore how you handle, understand and prepare for them that often makes the difference between carving out a profit long-term or not.

Many punters ignore this at their cost – perhaps because they don’t want to think about losing and what it might be like when a bad run hits.

Yet take it from me – understanding this concept and the things that Joseph talks about in this episode is 100% crucial to long-term success.


This podcast episode also made me reflect on an article I wrote nearly 2 years ago on understanding losing sequences and the probability that underpins them. An article that is still hugely relevant today but one that seemed to be controversial at the time judging by some of the feedback received.

After publishing it, I had emails telling me “Why would anyone follow that tipster” but of course, those people entirely missed the point.

It’s not about the tipster in question (who has a 20 year profitable record no less) and all about the mathematics that underpin value betting.

This is because even the most hardened professionals have stories on losing runs that can make your eyes water.

If you meet someone who doesn’t, likely they are lying about the fact they are a professional!

No tipster or bettor will ever escape them and it’s only by embracing and understanding sequences and probability (some actual very simple concepts) that will you know what to do when the time comes.

So here is that article again. I hope you enjoy it and if you do – make sure you listen to Joseph Buchdahl’s interview!


Be honest with yourself. How likely are you to stick with a tipster, no matter how good their reputation, if they put up 26 losing bets in a row?

Chances are that most people, especially if paying for tips would throw in the towel long before they placed the 27th bet.

Yet, that is exactly the situation that unfolded with the SBC Hall of Fame service – the Daily Bargain in October 2020 when the first 26 bets of the month all lost.

(A Hall of Fame service is simply one of those we fully advocate to SBC members after several years of monitoring, thousands of results and deep analysis of the tipster in question)

As Steve who oversees the Daily Bargain puts up 1 bet a day, that was 26 days of consecutive losers, which will no doubt have seen some posing questions such as why have we at SBC recommended this service in the first place?

It must be some kind of mistake or perhaps even a scam as surely no subscription charging tipster could ever put up 26 losers in a row, could they?

Well, yes they can and in today’s article I am going to explain why as part of a very important discussion on mathematical sequences.


Many losing bettors are fooled by their lack of understanding of sequences in relation to the odds and strike-rate of the tipster they follow.

A run of 26 losers in a row, whilst sounding unlikely, is in fact entirely reasonable to expect given the strike-rate of the Daily Bargain.

The historical strike-rate for this service over 2500 bets since 2012 has sat at about 15%. Just under 1 in 7 bets win.

When we run this past the wonderful ‘Don’t Go Broke’ article I regularly reference from the Daily Bargain website itself, a tipster with a 15% strike-rate is rated to have as follows:

  • A 75% chance of 25 losers in sequence
  • A 50% chance of 30 losers in sequence
  • A 25% chance of 36 losers in sequence

So as unlikely as it sounds a run of 26 losers in sequence is reasonably likely to happen over a large enough sample size.


The above is important as it gets to the heart of a flawed viewpoint that many punters wrongly believe – that if you pay for tips, you should win more often.

The reality is that you will continue to win just as often as the strike-rate of the tipster dictates. If the tipster wins 15% of the time, you will still win 15% of the time long-term.

Over the course of a short-term period, you will always see fluctuations in that – just as we saw in the first 26 bets of October 2020 for the Daily Bargain when it hit a 0% strike-rate.

Yet, what I haven’t yet discussed in this article is what happened between the 29th October and the 2nd November 2020 as you might have guessed by now…things changed!

Each of the 5 bets advised during this period by the Daily Bargain all won to make back the losses incurred in the first 26 bets of October and add plenty of profit on top.

To simple 1 point stakes, a deficit of -26 points had risen to a profit of +17.67 points.

A swing of 43.67 points in your favour.

What a turnaround and reward for those following during the fallow days of October for their patience. The losing run had been easily absorbed.

Taken as a whole, over the course of the 31 bets between the 1st October and 2nd November, this saw 31 bets advised, with 5 bets winning.

Which equates to…you guessed it a 16.12% strike-rate of success.

Just a smidgen above what the service has achieved long-term since 2012.

It is also worth pointing out here that during those 26 bets in October without a winner, 6 of them placed, finishing 2nd or 3rd at odds of 20/1, 10/1, 7/1, 7/1, 13/2, 11/2. So, it is not as if they all ran badly – sometimes it’s just a series of near misses that go against you, during a bad run. You must remain patient for the rewards to come your way.



The truth is that even if paying for a quality tipster service like the Daily Bargain, there is no getting away from the maths that underpin betting.

So don’t be fooled into the notion that if paying for tips, they will lose less.

They will lose the same amount as their long-term strike-rate dictates. In the Daily Bargain’s case – 15% of the time, they will win. 85% of the time they will lose.

What will change is the profits you make based on the odds you place the bets at.

Because as long as taking a value price, such as the Daily Bargain advocates, then over the course of time, you will end up in profit.

Yet these profits never come in a straight line. You might get 26 losers in a row; you might get 5 winners in a row. You will have losing months and sometimes they unfold over several months.

The sequences will change. At times they will frustrate you and at others they will delight you. You simply have to be patient and not fall into the trap that gets so many punters who don’t understand the simple mathematics behind sequences.

The trick is not to micro-manage and live out your results day-to-day, week-to-week or even month-to-month.

If you do so, you might fall into the trap of quitting too soon. Like any punters that stopped following the Daily Bargain after the 26th loser in October 2020.


To help you cope with sequences, you also need a betting bank to cover yourself when bad runs hit.

This is why we recommend a 100 points bank for the Daily Bargain, because even if you joined on the 1st October, you would have only lost 26% of your bank at that point.

Come the 2nd November, you would have been up 17.67 points or 17.67% of your bank.

The betting bank is there to help keep your staking in check when a bad run hits, because all bettors, no matter how experienced do feel the pain of losing to some degree.

Over time and once you have ridden this storm a few times, it gets easier to handle, but if new to betting in this way and if you struggle to keep focus when in a losing spree, a betting bank is absolutely crucial.

Don’t forget either that each individual bet you place is almost always totally disconnected from the last bet you placed (assuming placed on different games/races)

So just because your last bet won or lost, it makes it no likelier that your next bet will do the same.

The horse running in the 3.10 at Kempton you have just backed has no idea that the horse you backed yesterday in the 2.20 at Wolverhampton lost.

It’s a completely different race with different horses, jockeys and conditions entirely. So try not to think about runs of ‘good form’ or ‘bad form’ and instead focus on the bigger picture.

That alongside a greater understanding of the betting strike-rate can make a world of difference to your betting.

And as ever you also need patience. Patience in abundance at times, but for those of you able to apply this to your betting – the rewards are there with the right tipsters.



If you are interested in learning more about both the top tipsters we recommend AND what it takes to win long-term as a bettor, then you might like to consider a Smart Betting Club membership.

Not only do we guide you as to the best tipsters to follow like the Daily Bargain, via our Hall of Fame ratings and regular Tipster Profit Reports.

But we also do our best to explain, educate and inform on how to setup like a professional and handle the psychological swings of betting.

For every tipster we review and recommend we give ratings and scores on things like risk and profitability as well as guidance on the size betting bank you need if following.

You can also read the Pro Gambler Blueprint guide (65 page PDF) and our special 54-page Betting Psychology Guide, entitled ‘How to get the Betting X-Factor‘ as an SBC member.

Furthermore, you can also save on quality tipsters such as the Daily Bargain thanks to the discounts we offer SBC members. For example, you can enjoy an extra month free of charge to the Daily Bargain as an SBC member if subscribing to them.

Best of all you can sign-up today and enjoy a full money back guarantee if not satisfied by what we offer. Membership is available from as little as £29.99 per quarter.

Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club and gain instant access

3 Brand New Tipster Reviews In SBC 131. Issue Out Now!

The latest Issue of the SBC Magazine is out now with 3 new tipster reviews to explore in full.

Our headline review this month is our exploration of the insider information based racing tipster with a ROI close to 17% since 2020!

We also have detailed profiles of a pay-as-you-win tennis tipster and a long-shot horse racing service. All three reviews can be read in full as a member of the Smart Betting Club

Inside SBC Issue 131 you will find:

Review 1: The racing tipster who uses industry contacts and has made over 800pts profit & a ROI of 16.89% since 2020.

Bets are profitable across both bookmakers and exchanges and we discuss odds availability, the practicality of using the service and betting bank advice alongside the key data from the 2,228 bets verified so far. SBC members also get a 33% discount on their first subscription purchase!

Review 2: The tennis tipster who only charges you when you are profitable! Using their betting experience and expertise of the major tours, this service has shown a consistent edge against bookmakers with a 9.19% ROI from over 2,000 bets! We discuss staking strategies, performance in different sub-markets and odds availability alongside how this tipster’s Fair Odds Policy adds value for the customer.

Review 3: The ‘Long-Shot’ horse racing tipster who provides daily tips that are profitable with both bookmakers and exchanges. By using form study, this service focuses on horses with double-digit prices and has shown a 15.91% ROI against advised odds and a 14.45% ROI against BSP since verification began. We discuss variance with longer priced horses, bankroll management and strategies to increase profitability by placing bets at the right time.


You can read all 3 of these in-depth tipster reviews inside SBC Issue 131 (and our huge back catalogue of reviews and reports) with a Smart Betting Club membership.

Quarterly, Bi-Annual and Annual memberships are available here and with so many verified and profitable tipsters available on the site, this is the perfect time to sign up!

All subscriptions come with a make money guarantee and other benefits that include:

  • Full access to all of our independent SBC publications and reviews of services
  • Access to 8 free verified tipsters who publish regular advice from a diverse set of sports
  • Discounts for numerous tipsters, including some of those from our famous ‘Hall Of Fame’
  • Tailored advice that meets your betting needs with practical help and guides

Subscribe here and take your betting to the next level

New Podcast: Paul Krishnamurty on Betting on Politics

In this latest episode I was joined by betting analyst Paul Krishnamurty to talk about his expertise in the field he is best known for – betting on politics.

With a steady stream of betting markets especially in the UK with its constant changes of leader and of course the never ending drama of the US political scene, there has never been a better time or opportunity to learn more about political betting.

With huge amounts of money traded on the exchanges and with bookmakers actively promoting their political betting markets, its an area ripe for exploitation for many a shrewd punter.

Paul is one of the best known and most informed voices in the political betting world and he shares all in this latest podcast.

You can listen to this episode now via Apple / Spotify / Google / YouTube and all other major podcast directories (search Smart Betting Club)


Armed with a degree in politics and a journalism background, Paul Krishnamurty first began betting on politics in the early 2000s’ and knows what it takes to make a profit from it.

He talks about the importance of reading and understanding the polls, how the political betting markets react to developments and news plus his approach to spreading around risk by placing bets in lesser-known markets.

With the US 2020 election market on Betfair the biggest ever betting event and the 2024 election projected to be greater still, interest in political betting is growing with huge sums of money available to trade on the exchanges.

For those of you intrigued about betting on politics, especially given the opportunities for getting on in such big exchange-driven markets, Paul is the man to listen to when it comes to these markets.

Check out all the episodes of the Smart Betting Club Podcast

Can you make a profit using inside information? We put this racing tipster to the test

The very latest tipster review from my team and I at the Smart Betting Club has just been published – where we have taken a detailed look at a fascinating ‘information’ based racing tipster service.

This tipster claims usage of a ‘network of stable insiders’ and access to ‘inside information’ as a source for bets that produced an impressive 16.89% ROI from over 2,200 bets.

Although we approach such claims with a fair amount of healthy skepticism, it became clear over our lengthy reviewing and proofing period that they do have a special relationship with certain yards.

Of course not every bet they advise wins but more than enough to build up the impressive set of results since June 2020 as per the table and graph below:


One of the issues with access to ‘information’ is how the betting market reacts when a lot of money is placed for a certain horse, especially when tipped up by this service.

To answer this question, we ran our standard odds tracking analysis, which although noting movement within the first 60 minutes after a bet was advised, did also did uncover that taking some bets on the Betting Exchanges was a viable alternative.

This is because in numerous instances, the odds did rebound after the initial burst of market support and in this review we have full analysis on performance and profits not only at Betfair SP but in the Live Betfair market too.

For example, we were able to match 81% of the advised bets against Betfair SP and SP with the following breakdown of profits:

To explain further, these bets would have made a 16.79% ROI at advised prices, yet a 12.02% ROI at Betfair SP with the average odds being larger at 7.81 Betfair SP vs 7.16 at advised.

In the review itself, we outline more on not only using Betfair SP but our live market analysis and the optimal time to place these bets on the Betfair exchange if using such an approach.

Providing full advice and guidance on how best to follow whether it be with bookmakers or on Betfair.


Best of all, SBC members currently enjoy a huge 33% discount on their first purchase to this service in an exclusive deal.

The savings work out as below – with both the 6 and 12 month discount more than the cost of joining SBC for 3 months!

  • 1 month – non-SBC member £29.00 – SBC member’s rate £19.43, saving £9.57
  • 3 months – non-SBC member £69.00 – SBC member’s rate £46.23, saving £22.77
  • 6 months – non-SBC member £129.00 – SBC member’s rate £86.43, saving £42.57
  • 12 months – non-SBC member £239.00 – SBC member’s rate £160.13, saving £78.87



You can read our extensive analysis and insight into this racing tipster service in the 11-page PDF review now available to Smart Betting Club members.

Membership also comes with full access to all our past and future tipster reviews, reports and much more besides!

And of course, the ability to take up the special 33% discount code on this service, which is available to SBC members only too.

Subscribe here and take your betting to the next level

New Podcast: US Sports Betting Professional, Rob Pizzola On His Winning Edge

In the latest SBC Podcast Episode, I was joined by North American professional bettor, Rob Pizzola to discuss his winning edge betting on sports like Baseball, Ice Hockey and American Football.

Rob has carved out a living betting on sports for several years and we discuss the models he utilises, the team he works with, how he gets bets on and the changing betting landscape in North America.

We also get into the US tipster (handicapper) market and how many of the same issues we have seen unfold in Europe when it comes to bookmakers are starting to manifest themselves there.

You can listen to this episode now via Apple / Spotify / Google / YouTube and all other major podcast directories (search Smart Betting Club)


Rob began life like many losing money betting on sports until he began developing his own advanced models, which over time developed a keen following given his clear edge over the market.

These days Rob juggles his own profitable betting portfolio with regular work as a betting analyst, whilst he is also the co-founder and co-owner of two betting websites – Betstamp and The Hammer.

We talk about the reality of betting in the North American market including the challenges of dealing with both offshore and onshore firms, both pre and post the legalisation of betting in states like Ontario, Canada where Rob lives. Just like in the European betting space, there are developing issues as regards effective regulation and the behaviour of bookmakers towards their customers.

Rob also shares his experience of the US Tipster (Handicapper) market, the number of scams that proliferate within them and why he has setup the odds comparison, line shopping website Betstamp to enable people to get better value and track the performance of handicappers.

All told its a fascinating exploration into the reality of betting professionally in North America and the challenges bettors there face to beat the bookmaker.

Check out all the episodes of the Smart Betting Club Podcast

2 big wins in the past 10 days for SBC’s tipster blogger!

Here at SBC we don’t just talk about following tipsters, we actually live and breathe it out ourselves each day – placing bets from many of the same tipsters we rate and recommend.

Which is why for the past 7 years, SBC writer and reviewer, Rowan Day has been blogging about his own experiences using tipsters and their ongoing performance via his FREE Online Bet Diary.

He lists not only the tipsters he follows but the profits and losses made each week.


As long-term Bet Diary readers will know, Rowan has been making a fine profit using tipsters for several years but lately he has hit a few big winners and I wanted to highlight a couple of highlights for you to check out.

First of all, on Sunday he hit not just one big golf winner, but two with 100/1 and 66/1 successes in both the PGA and DP world events as he outlines in this post.

That followed on from a huge winning day on the racing last week where he made 150% bank growth with one very successful Lucky 15. I have seen the betslip and can confirm it was a sizeable win indeed!


Posting 3 times a week on his Racing, Sports & Golf Tipsters, win or lose – Rowan is always refreshingly honest and realistic on the performance he achieves.

You can read Rowan’s weekly updates every Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday via the Smart Betting Club Bet Diary.


You can sign-up to get a free email every Thursday Evening with all 3 weekly Bet Diary posts inside it.

Click here to join the FREE Bet Diary email list.​


For even more intel on his approach to making a profit using tipsters, you can also listen to this podcast interview with Rowan Day on what he made betting over the past 12 months.

You can listen to this episode now via Apple / Spotify / Google and all other major podcast directories (search Smart Betting Club)

For those of you keen to build your own tipster portfolio, he shares his thoughts on how best to approach this and how to choose tipsters that suit you, your budget, experience and bookmakers available.

We also get into the topic of bookmaker restrictions and how he gets around that with a few tips for account longevity and using the exchanges.

Its an ideal podcast for those of you interested in making money via tipsters and the experience Rowan can share on his success over the years doing exactly this.