Professional punter insight on what it takes to win football betting – One expert speaks

Tuesday saw the release of our 2019/20 Season Football Tipster Guide – featuring our take on 16 of the very best football tipsters to follow this season.

Designed to help you find genuine, proven experts to follow in this season – its the perfect antidote to all the ‘predictions’ written by ex professional footballers or journalists with no background or experience in what it takes to make a profit football betting.

Playing football is one thing – betting on it another thing entirely!

One man who does know how to make a profit football betting is the very highly rated expert – Greg Gordon, who since 2006 has run a very profitable tipping service advising bets across a range of major English, Scottish & European leagues.

Greg was one of the experts featured within our 2019/20 Football Tipster Guide and alongside our detailed analysis on his performance, we also grilled him on the current state of play football betting as he saw it.

As a peek behind the curtain on what you can expect to find in the 2019/20 Football Tipster Guide, in this article you can read his interview in full.

We asked him about his performance last season, his thoughts on modern day football betting, the bookmakers & exchanges he uses PLUS his top advice for aspiring football punters.

As Greg also outlines, Smart Betting Club members can save a whopping £100 on the cost of joining his expert service – all thanks to our independent punter-first setup, where you pocket savings not us!

Sign-up for the Smart Betting Club.

Interview With Greg Gordon – As Taken From The 2019/20 Season Football Tipster Guide

SBC: Can you talk us through your tipping performance during the 2018/19 season and what you achieved overall?

Greg: At the end of each season, I always go back to first principles and I look at the season as a whole, before breaking it down into its constituent parts and its particular themes.

The first thing I’d say is that I am always happy to take a profit.

A profit of 20+ points is respectable enough. So is an ROI of 5.28%. With fees of £275 (with the £100 SBC discount applied) a return of £2,000 for an outlay of £275 is not to be sniffed at when compared to other places you could put your money for 10 months.

So big picture is OK. Not as good as last season, where I made a 44.37pts profit at an ROI of 14.84% – but not bad by any means.

Last season, your return would have been £4437 for the £275 outlay and adding the last 2 seasons together, that’s a £6437 profit for a £550 outlay.

Adding the last 2 seasons together, that’s a £6437 profit for a £550 outlay.

During the 18/19 season, we were prisoners of where the results fell and that is basically an occupational hazard in any betting endeavour.

Those that joined in the second half of the season will have had poor results and perhaps even a negative impression of the service. But the season as a whole was good, just as the previous seven seasons have been good.

Over the past 7 seasons I have averaged a profit of 31 points each season at a ROI of between 7 and 8%. Some seasons this figure is slightly higher and some slightly lower but I take strength from the fact my advice consistently beats the bookmaker.

Over the past 7 seasons I have averaged a profit of 31 points each season at a ROI of between 7 and 8%

It is what keeps me going on the days when things go wrong and equally I never go overboard on those great days where everything we touch turns to gold, which seems to happen at least once or twice every season.

And this is the nub of things for anyone betting seriously:

In a short run of bets, such as a half season or a few months you often get an extreme run of positive or negative results and I am sure that’s what happened for me this season more than usual.

When things went well in the first half of the season they went extremely well – with a lot of results falling our way, late in games. Latterly, when we’ve had a bad day or a bad run, the bit of counterbalancing luck you’d expect has deserted us.

At the time it doesn’t seem significant – three bad days a season.

But if you take say just five losing football bets and turn them into winners over a run of say, 100 bets you’d see quite a different picture and the effect of small margins for error, really running for you in individual games.

If you extrapolate that out, then -15pts or +15pts over 300 bets could typically be turned into a -15pts to a +20pts, a swing of as much as 35pts.

I’ve tried to mitigate against that potential for volatility by having more bets this season. It hasn’t worked out like I’d have hoped, largely because there’s been less goals around than I’d expect in the second half of the season. What I’ll need to ponder is, ‘is that likely to be an ongoing trend or is it just a quirk of a particular run of games?’

I look at 2019’s results and I don’t think there’s a deeper meaning to them than the variance of a small sample, based on my experience over the last 12 years. And I also know that to look or invent reasons for a run of results in retrospect, when you are dealing with a small sample size, can lead you down a false trail. I am wary of doing that.

SBC: Were there any notable highlights or challenges faced last season which stand out?

Greg: Starting with a negative: In a football sense there’s been a lot less late goals than I’d normally expect in the leagues I bet in, over the last two quarters of this season.

There’s been a lot less late goals than I’d normally expect in the leagues I bet in

That could be a function of a few things – players mentality, teams’ instructions and a fear of conceding overriding a desire to go and take risks to score that winning goal.

My suspicion is that current coaching fashion and the ‘too many cooks’ culture at most football clubs isn’t helping teams get a consistent, coherent message across to players for the whole season long.

For example, Liverpool take 25+ staff to every away game. In my opinion what can they possibly be adding other than a need to justify their own salaries? The result isn’t good for players that basically need a clear, concise message at all times, and strong sense of who they answer to and what the expectations are for them. Instead, their heads are full of complex, competing messages from a series of ‘expert practitioners’ from various disciplines.

So, what does this mean in terms of football betting? I think in a season of two halves, motivation and demotivation is going to be a key influencer on results and also goals tallies looking ahead. I think we now have to consider how we respond to a season, not as individual games or quarters but as two distinct halves.

So, while I started this answer with a negative, I think there is also a massive opportunity here for punters and tipsters that can look at the calendar in a dynamic, new way.

SBC: Will you be changing your tipping strategy at all for the forthcoming season? If so, what adjustments will you be applying and why?

Greg: For me it is always small changes, tweaks to thinking. The foundations are all solid but what fluctuates are short term results. Mainly, I’ll approach this season with optimism and an open mind. I think being open minded to the need to adapt on the hoof, and also being resolute where you need to be, is the balancing act that every punter has to negotiate.

SBC: Which bookmakers do you recommend for those following your service?

Greg: These days I am almost running a three tier service. For every member I have with a full suite of bookmaker accounts as listed on Oddschecker, I have many more restricted to a few accounts, solely to the exchanges or solely to Asian accounts or a provider such as Mollybet.

I only bet on match results and goals markets these days so the service isn’t restrictive or hard to follow.

It is a broad church service with a common sense approach – whether you bet with bookmakers, exchanges or bet brokers.

Basically it is a broad church service with a common sense approach – whether you bet with bookmakers, exchanges or bet brokers. I’ve set it up so everyone can get the bets on somewhere and in some combination that suits the accounts at their disposal.

SBC: What advice do you have for punters to help them with their football betting this coming season?

Greg: In terms of addressing a bad run, and this is general betting advice for tipster or punter alike, and advice I’ve been given myself: it is a balancing act between maintaining good principles that have stood you in good stead for many years while keeping an open mind to the potential for underlying change in the markets you are betting on.

On an individual level that means going back to first principles with every bet and making sure that you are confident that your thinking is sound and that you are betting to prices where you have an edge. Those are the two things that as a punter you can control – your opinion married to the price on offer. Everything else is ‘on the day’ and especially so in a low scoring game like football.

When the dust has settled and you are looking back over the bets you’ve done, see if there are common mistakes in your thinking, or pitfalls that you regularly fall into. Obviously, these are things that cost you money, that you don’t want to replicate.

I always say that you learn far more from your losers than your winners because winners don’t tend to be evaluated fairly. When we win we assume that skill has played a greater part than luck for the most part. It is easy to be over-critical of a good bet that has lost and to consider the process that got you there to be flawed.

I always say that you learn far more from your losers than your winners because winners don’t tend to be evaluated fairly

I wish there was a series of easy answers I could give you, but I know from past experience that taking care of details and simultaneously working hard on individual bets and the bigger picture is the only way to turn results around and that’s what you should strive to do. It is sore when you lose always, but it is not half as sore when you know that you have done your homework and applied your methods consistently. That’s what generates long term, steady success and that’s what means you’ll come out in front in the end, again and again.

SBC: Do you have any strong ante-post bets or teams/angles/managers to watch for the coming season?

(Note – the following was written on the 30th July and since then, some of the market prices have changed)

Greg: In the antepost markets, I can’t see past Cove Rangers in League Two they have been a popular choice in preseason but I still think there is value in their chances at anything over 5/4 (2.25). They are probably going to go off at around 7/4 (2.75) by the start of the season.

(Greg was correct on the above as before their first game of the season, Cove were 7/4 and are now 11/10 after an impressive start)

As an each way treble of Falkirk to win League One and Dundee United to win The Championship and Cove to win League Two should pay around 13/1 (14.0) and I’d expect all three to be in the frame

Cove have three players on Championship wages in League Two (Park, Masson and Megginson) and the money to back up an assault on the lower leagues above their current level. I can’t see any consistent challenge to their deep pockets over the next 10 months as every other team in their section has had to rebuild from scratch this summer and will take time to gel, even if their recruitment proves to be good. Cove, with a settled team that are used to winning, could be out of sight before the daffodils have bloomed.

SBC: Can you outline the membership options and terms you are offering during the 2019/20 season and any special offers you might have for SBC Members?

Greg: I always offer a £100 discount to SBC members. That takes annual fees of £375 down to £275 for the season up until May 2020.

Factor in the ability to join the Smart Betting Club for just £27.99 and anyone wishing to join my service would be mad to not join you guys first.

———–

Grab Your Copy of The 2019/20 Season Football Tipster Guide

You can read more from Greg and 15 other proven football experts inside the 2019/20 Season Football Tipster Guide with a Smart Betting Club membership.

Providing insight into the experts with a proven history of making money football betting long-term

It also includes details on 2 expert football tipsters providing their advice for free to Smart Betting Club members this season.

For those of you interested in other sports and how to turn a profit from them – you can also read detailed examinations, reviews and ratings on the best tipsters across the likes of Horse Racing, Tennis, Golf, NBA, NFL, Darts & much more as well.

Sign-up now to gain instant access to this guide and the entire Smart Betting Club service on the best tipsters across all sports.


Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

 

 

 

Gear up for the new season with the 2019/20 Football Tipster Guide

The new season upon us and to help you find the best football tipsters, you must check out our fantastic new 2019/20 Season Football Tipster Guide.

It features our take on 16 of the very best football tipsters we have uncovered over the past 13 years with updated ratings, rankings and recommendations on the best experts for you to follow this season.

Highlighting the experts with a proven history of making money for those shrewd enough to follow their football tips.

You can also read detailed interviews with many of these top tipsters including their strategies for the coming season and their tips and advice on how to make a profit football betting.

It also includes details on 2 expert football tipsters providing their advice for free to Smart Betting Club members this season.

Sign-up now to gain instant access to this guide (and the entire SBC back catalogue)

Significant & Exclusive Tipster Discounts

Inside the 2019/20 Season Football Tipster Guide you can also read details on several significant discounts available on the cost of these tipsters – exclusively available to SBC members.

You can often save more than the cost of a Smart Betting Club membership by taking up these discounts!

Exclusive SBC member savings include:

  • £100 off the cost of a season with the ‘Hall of Fame’ Scottish football expert;
  • 30% off your first purchase of any Pyckio.com football tipster;
  • 25% off the cost of a top-rated acca and free bets loophole tipster;
  • £21 off the cost of joining another long-running profitable football service;
  • 150 Euros off the cost of a season with a non-league football guru.
  • 5% off 2 different betting exchange laying services

Full details on these savings (and many others) are available to you with a Smart Betting Club membership.

The Best Tipsters On ALL Sports

If you want to know about the best football tipsters (Plus Horse Racing, Tennis, Golf, NBA, NFL, Darts & many other sports) then a Smart Betting Club membership will be right up your street.

Best of all, you can now sign-up totally risk-free thanks to our money back guarantee, which ensures if you find our service not for you, then you can get a full refund.

Meaning you have everything to gain and nothing to lose from joining our exclusive club!

Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club and gain instant access


Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

Expert tipsters speak: Football betting tips this season & beyond

Last week saw the release of SBC’s new season Football Tipster Guide, featuring reviews, recommendations and detailed insight into 14 of the best football tipping experts we have uncovered over the years.

Inside the guide you can also read our interviews with several of the expert tipsters, where we grilled them not only on their performance but also for their advice on what it takes to make a profit betting.

Based on some of the answers given, I have put together this neat snapshot on some of the key points raised by this gang of experts.

In no particular order then – here are some of the expert tips for profiting on football this season and beyond…

FS1819_468X60

Use Expected Goals Wisely…

Expected Goals (xG) have started to come into mainstream football conversation recently, but it’s important to know how best to use them – especially from a betting perspective.

Bear in mind that bookies and syndicates alike have been using xG for years, so on its own, using it to choose your bets is no silver bullet strategy. Mike Holden of Fox Punter had these wise words to share on xG:

“Don’t get too fixated by ‘expected goals’. It’s a helpful metric to get a feel for how a team has been performing relative to recent results but no two models are the same and making a random website your primary tool isn’t going to give you any sort of discernible edge on the market.

The big syndicates are using xG models so much more advanced than anything you will find available publicly, and their money one week will shape the market the next. If you think you’ve found an angle due to some xG quirk you’ve casually spotted, you might simply be at the mercy of an inadequate model.

By all means keep abreast of shot data and xG values, just like older punters would have kept abreast of the league tables or form guides in a bygone era. But turning shot data into a profitable system is more about the algorithm you put it through rather than the actual data itself.”

Use Social Media

One bit of modern technology you can use is Social Media as a means of gathering information to help you with your bets, as Brodders explained:

“You can never have enough information. Obviously that’s readily available for the big European leagues but trawl through Twitter and other Social Media to get info on players and teams news which may not be factored in by bookies having to offer prices a few days in advance.”

It’s not just Twitter either, but message boards and fans forums, especially at lower league level or in unfashionable leagues abroad, can be a helpful tool.

Bookies know everything there is to know about team news when Man City play Liverpool, but could they say the same for Arbroath vs Clyde?

Find The Vulnerable Early-Season Favourites…

Although we didn’t see any ‘shocks’ in the Premier League this weekend, one expert feels that value can be had looking for vulnerable favourites across the European leagues in these first few weeks of the season.

An idea put forward by football expert, Motaliz, its logic is based on the fact the World Cup finished just a few weeks ago and many teams have had a disrupted start to proceedings.

“This season comes after the World Cup which means that the transfer market and the set-up of the teams will have a later effect than usual.

This implies that the majority of top teams (the ones that had the most players in the WC) will take some time to gel and click which could generate some early season opportunities for the ones that are able to detect some overpriced favourites.”

The likes of Tottenham & Man Utd might well fall into this category but they came up against an unhappy club in Newcastle and another with its own World Cup related issues (Leicester) last weekend. It’s a strategy I will be keeping an eye over the next few weeks in England and Europe when these big teams face the right opposition.

SBC 468X60 (1)

Tailor Your Betting To You…

Each of us has a different approach to risk. Some of us wouldn’t think twice before bungee jumping, whilst others wouldn’t get within 200 ft of a bungee cable, let alone jump.

And it’s the same when betting as some of us like to back long-shots and can handle losing runs, whilst others need regular winners and a high strike-rate.

Therefore, the way you bet needs to be tailored to your risk as Greg Gordon puts it “You need to be honest with yourself and find a style of betting that suits your temperament and allows you to flourish.”

It’s a strategy he has applied himself to good effect to avoid the pain of losing as he outlined further…

“There’s a lot to be said for a steady graph and betting in a way that minimises losing runs and keeps the heartache to the minimum. It hasn’t been too painful for me over the years and I’ve tried to make it that way, purposefully. You should too.”

Is It Value & Can It Win?

Greg also had some excellent advice on the theory of finding value, as he fears too many punters purely look at this rather than the reality of whether a bet can win or not. As he puts it:

“I don’t have any strictly price call bets anymore. I always want strong football reasons to play – rather than just a bit of theoretical value.

When you price up a bet now ask yourself two questions: 1) Is it a value price? 2) Do I think it can win? If you can’t answer yes to both questions then I’d inclined to pass.”

Some might well disagree with this statement, yet given that Greg continues to fire in the profits, season after season, he is obviously onto something.

content_SBC_468X60

SBC is dedicated to finding the best tipster services out there, so as you might imagine, advice on how to do that is at the forefront of some of the advice given such as the following points…

Too Good To Be True?

Non-league tipster, Skeeve bangs a drum I regularly hit, advocating caution that ‘if a tipster’s record looks too good to be true, it’s probably fake’ and that ‘if the selections aren’t proofed to a third party (such as SBC), they’re useless. This betting world is full of crooks and scammers, so please be cautious.’

This is particularly the case with many tipsters on social media where it’s very easy to setup new accounts when the old ones start to hit a losing run. If a tipster is unable to provide proof of their results, then move on.

Ask Lots Of Questions…

Another way to avoid being caught out is to do your due diligence as Stuart from Football Investor points out:

Do plenty of research before joining a service and don’t be afraid to ask them plenty of questions. There are many factors which could impact upon your likelihood of success following a tipster so it’s better to have this information in advance as mistakes can often prove costly.”

Longevity Matters

The length of time a tipster has been in operation is also key as Mike Lindley of Winabobatoo recommends to ‘find a betting service that you can trust and stick with them. If they’ve been around for a long time, they’re probably still here today because they get things right more often than they get things wrong’

After all – the average age of an SBC Hall of Fame service is over 3 years for a very good reason.

Don’t Quit Too Soon!

Finally, I want to wrap up todays email with some very salient advice from Chris Baier from Wisdom of Crowds who talked about ‘the single biggest mistake punters make’ – over-reacting to bad form and making key decisions based on this.

Chris wrote how he had seen this take place not just in the betting world, but also the financial world stating that:

“I recently saw the records of a very successful US Hedge Fund, that showed over 40% of their lifetime client base had actually lost money while investing with the fund!

This fund had a relatively consistent record of double digit annual gains over decades.”

What was the reason 40% of clients made a loss from this successful fund?

“Bad timing and illogical emotion” whereby those following the hedge fund bought into it when it was doing well and sold when doing poorly.

So instead of letting the markets do their thing and watching it all dispassionately, many of those who posted a loss thought they knew better and took their money out or added more at the wrong time.

I see this all the time when betting as punters flit from one winning service to another, rather than simply choosing a good one and sticking with it. And that ultimately can be very costly!

Grab Your New Season Football Guide

I hope you have enjoyed this small snapshot into the interviews as found within this new season football guide.

You can read all of the interviews in full, alongside detailed write-ups, analysis and ratings on the best tipsters to follow thoughout the guide.

Available to download the instant you join the Smart Betting Club.

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

Pete_HeadShot_SMall

Under the microscope: 14 of 2018/19’s best football tipsters

 

The new season is nearly upon us and to help you find the best football tipster(s), you must check out our fantastic new 2018/19 Season Football Tipster Guide!

Inside it features our take on 14 of the very best football tipsters we have uncovered with updated ratings, rankings and recommendations on the best experts for the new season.

You can also read detailed interviews with many of the tipsters including their strategies for the coming season and their tips and advice on how to make a profit football betting.

Tackling tipsters betting across the globe on leagues from Spain to Scotland and Brazil to Belgium, it’s your one-stop-shop for finding the best football betting experts.

Sign-up now to gain instant access (and the entire SBC back catalogue)

FS1819_Cover

Significant SBC Member Discounts

Inside the 2018/19 Season Football Tipster Guide you can also read details on several significant discounts available of the cost of these tipsters – exclusively available to SBC members.

You can often save more than the cost of a Smart Betting Club membership with many of these discounts combined!

The savings include:

  • £100 off the cost of a season with the ‘Hall of Fame’ Scottish football expert;
  • 15% discount on a top rated South American tipster;
  • 30% discount off your first purchase of any Pyckio.com football tipster;
  • £1 monthly subscription to an up and coming football ratings tipster;
  • Up to £40 off the cost of one of the most popular system based tipsters;
  • £31.75 discount on the cost of the acca and free bets loophole tipster;
  • £32 off the cost of joining another long-running ratings based football service;
  • £25 discount on your first month with another ‘Hall of Fame’ European football tipster;
  • 125 Euros discount on the cost of a season with a non-league football guru.

Full details on these savings (and many others) are available to you with access to the Smart Betting Club website.

Click here to read more on other SBC member only discounts currently available.


“My Net Profit Was In Excess Of £58,000”

“I have just conducted a review of the tipster performance for 2017 and my net profit was in excess of £58,000, the majority of it coming from horse racing.”
Michael – An SBC Member For 5 Years

Read more from Michael on his profits last year

michael2

Gain Instant Access & Save Up To £45 On An SBC Membership

If you want to know about the best football tipsters (Plus Horse Racing, Tennis, Golf, NBA, NFL, Darts & many other sports) then subscribe to the Smart Betting Club today and gain instant access to all our expert betting reports.

Best of all if joining the Smart Betting Club today you can also save up to a whopping £45 on the usual cost of membership.

This is because we have slashed the price of joining to ensure as many people as possible have access to our reports, magazines and guides.

We know we can make a difference to your punting – so why not sign-up right away and get started immediately. (There is a 90-day money back guarantee available after all)

Best Regards,
Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

Pete_HeadShot_SMall

2018 Discount 468X60

Why so many football punters suffered ‘away day’ blues last season. 2017/18’s strange stats

.
Whilst the 2017/18 football season in England will be remembered for many things – Man City’s 100 points, Wolves domination of the Championship and of course, little Accrington Stanley taking the League 2 title, for those of us that enjoy betting on the beautiful game, it will be remembered for some very different reasons.

Primarily this is down to some strange statistical quirks we saw throughout the top 4 English Leagues during the 2017/18 season. Stats that can teach us plenty about variance, luck and most of all – the patience needed to make a profit football betting.

Patience for many can be a dirty word when betting – especially from those punters not used to handling losing runs (I understand this – they can be tough!) but the reality is it’s something we all most get to grips with if we ever want to make our betting really pay.

It’s easy when you are winning but you find out the most about yourself and your betting when in a bad patch. After all – even the best punters are not immune to having a bad football season as pro punter Rory Campbell admits to in part 1 of these excellent videos.

So, in today’s email I want to showcase with you some strange stats for the English season in 2017/18, why ‘underdog’ backers suffered a huge drop AND just how you could have made a huge profit blind backing away teams.

(Note – all stats are based on the best odds available on the day of each game and at 10 point level stakes. It also runs up to the end of April – I have been unable to get stats on the last set of fixtures in the 3 lower leagues and last 2 fixtures in the Premier League as yet.)

SBC 104 468X60

Why Football Betting Last Season (in England) Was So Strange

One of the biggest statistical quirks witnessed during the 2017/18 season for the top 4 English leagues was the form of what I term ‘underdogs’ away from home – those teams priced at 7/4 and above.

This is a particularly important trend as a lot of pro punters and tipsters regularly focus on value away from home, especially at the bigger prices (so 7/4 and above). Therefore, the form of these teams is vital, yet in 2017/18 we saw a major drop in the number of ‘underdog’ away wins.

To set the scene, for the 10 years prior to the 2017/18 season, below I have listed the average performance of away teams priced at 7/4 and over (if blindly backing all away teams at these odds). As with all the stats in this article, all bets are calculated to 10 point level stakes to win.

Away Teams 7/4 & Over 10 Season Total Loss: -3162 points, ROI -2.1%, 24.9% strike rate

Over an average season, we can reasonably expect to post a 316 point loss at -2.1% ROI and to hit a 24.9% strike-rate.

With only a -2.1% ROI to overcome, it’s easy to see why this is an area of intense focus, because with the right strategy, a profit is there to be made by filtering out unprofitable away underdogs.

Any strategy is always vulnerable to short-term fluctuations (Yes, I will call a season short-term as it’s not a huge data sample) and 2017/18 was a case in point. This is because backing away underdogs during the 2017/18 season generated the following figures:

Away Teams 7/4 & Over 2017/18 Season Total Loss: -1270 pts, ROI -9.2%, 23.2% strike rate

In short, the average points lost rose by 954 points, the ROI dropped 7.1% and the strike-rate by 1.7%.

Whilst a -2.1% ROI might be overcome, it’s very difficult to turn around a -9.2% ROI into profit if backing away teams 7/4 and over.

There were also clear fluctuations across each of the 4 English leagues as follows for these bets 7/4 and over:

Premier League: -370pts , ROI -14.9%, 17.7% strike rate

Championship: -294pts, ROI -7.7%, 24% strike rate

League One: -121pts, ROI -3.2%, 25.4% strike rate

League Two: -485pts, ROI -13.2%, 23.6% strike rate

League 2 was particularly bad with a -13.2% ROI and to put its specific stats in context, the worst season prior to 17/18 for League 2 was 14/15 with -152 points and -3.6% ROI.

When Backing Away Teams Has Been Profitable

To further back up what a strange season 2017/18 was, those of you blindly backing all away teams under 7/4 will conversely have made a fine profit.

That is because if backing all away teams to win at odds under 2.75 (staking 10 points on each bet) in the Premier League , Championship, League One and Two you would have made a profit of 471 points at 8.5% ROI and hit a 48.9% strike-rate.

It’s not very often than you can blindly back favourites away from home in all those leagues and get a nice profit, yet that is exactly what happened in 17/18.

This trend gets stronger if we drop the Premier League and concentrate on the 3 lower leagues.The profit rises to 531 points and the ROI goes up to 11.7%!

SBC 468X60 (1)

What Can We Do About This?

So with all the strange patterns seen in the 2017/18 season, what are we to do as punters?

The first thing when we see trends like this is to ask if anything has changed to influence a lower strike-rate of winners away from home.

Are away teams less prepared, dealing with longer-travel times or banned from taking away supporters with them for example?

The answer to all of these questions is no. To my mind there is no actual logical reason why all of a sudden, away teams at bigger prices are under-performing.

The reason lies with what is termed Variance, which is something we see over relatively small samples of data.

Variance in its most simple terms is the difference from one data set to the mean. For example, if comparing what we made in one season during 2017/18 to what has been achieved over the past 10 seasons as a whole.

…And when comparing the 17/18 data set from the 10 year average we see plenty of variance at play.

One key reason for this is that football games are in the main tight affairs decided by 1 goal. 1-0 is the most common scoreline historically and even in League 2 this season, 67.31% of all games were decided by 1 goal or less.

The margin for error is therefore very slim and it’s easy to see weird trends like this over a small sample size such as one season.

It’s Your Time In The Game, Not Timing That Matters Most

So there you have it, some strange stats from the 2017/18 season and plenty of food for us football punters.

Ultimately, we can expect to realistically see these away trends change in time and no doubt there will be a season soon when we see the opposite apply – A higher proportion of away winners over 7/4 and a lower number under 7/4.

When exactly this will take place is anyone’s guess (unless you have the ability to predict the future) so we must be patient to wait it out until it does.

As one punting pro put it to me lately – it’s not the timing of when you start betting, but your time in betting that matters most.

Because as long as you have a valid long-term method, you might be unlucky based on when you start and the early results but long-term it will all even out in your favour.

As long as you have the patience to STAY IN and ride out quirky stats like seen above.

TPR Feb 18 468X60

Why We Recommend Tipsters With Long-Term Records Only

We apply this long-term logic to the tipsters we review and recommend, preferring to judge tipsters over a deep set of stats, rather than a few months here and there.

Any tipster can pick up a few winners by chance over a few weeks or even months, yet it’s only when they have a definitive edge long-term that we can rely on them to make us money.

It’s why the average length of time a SBC Hall of Fame rated tipster has been going for is over 4 years, because these are the tipsters that have proven themselves profitable long-term.

After all, were we to judge a tipster over a shorter period of time, we might find ourselves recommending tipsters who have an edge simple due to luck, rather than skill.

A football tipster that made a profit by backing away teams under 7/4 last season would be a prime example. Do they have a real edge or were they just lucky given the higher than average proportion of winners at these odds last season? Ultimately, only time will really tell on that front.

So, if you are after long-term, sensible advice on the best tipsters with proven records making money betting, do consider a Smart Betting Club membership.

You can get started instantly with a 90 day anytime money back guarantee to boot.

Sign-up To The Smart Betting Club

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Owner/Founder

Why Backing All Home Teams Made 81 Points Profit Last Season

.
Never mind pre-season friendlies, this weekend sees the return of ‘Proper Football’ with the start of the Championship, League 1 and League 2 seasons (alongside a whole host of others) and with it the hopes and dreams of many a football fan and punter!

Yet, did you know that last season was one of the strangest on record as anyone backing each and every home team in the main UK leagues would have made a fine profit?

It sounds bizarre, but it is true with a profit of 81.7 points at 3.4% ROI if backing all 2416 home teams in the top 4 English Leagues and the SPL last time out.

Check out the full stats below:

WW0408_01

This table is based on the results as taken from the football-data.co.uk website, which tracks the best early odds from a panel of 3 bookmakers.

Conversely as you might imagine, this also meant that those of you backing the Draw or the Away side also make a serious loss with 168 and 177 points lost respectively…

WW0408_02

Away Team Stats Over The Last 5 Seasons

For many punters, such a statistic is like a dagger to the heart as the biggest priced bets are often found when backing the away team.

The away teams are therefore usually taken as offering the ‘best value’ when considering who to bet upon.

Although when I say best value it’s important to understand I don’t mean ‘most likely to win’ – its vital to separate out a need to pick out a winner, versus taking a value price.

Again the 2016/17 season away bias is neatly reflected by this next graph which showcases the returns if blindly backing all away teams with Pinnacle Sports over the past 5 seasons.

Taking the closing odds (those available just before each game kicks off), you can see how the 2016/17 season compared with a huge loss of nearly 200 points. The previous ‘worst’ season for backing away teams only was the 2014/15 season, which dropped just over 25 points.

WW0408_03

What Has Changed For Us Punters?

For punters this kind of seasonal bias can cause all kind of challenges, raising questions such as…

  • Why is it happening?
  • Will this home side bias continue this season?
  • Should you avoid backing all away sides altogether?

Looking at the stats objectively and with an understanding that nothing has changed across the wider football world to give home sides an extra hidden advantage…the logic has to be that this is just a short-term pattern in play.

Short-term might seem a strange term to suggest when looking at 2416 games and a full season, yet we have seen similar patterns before.

A glance at the Pinnacle graph above from the 2012/13 season tells us that backing all away teams blindly made almost a 70 point profit that year…yet since this date such a strategy will have made an overall loss of over 200 points.

One Football Tipster Bucking The Seasonal Trends

Such seasonal trends also impact tipsters, so it takes a particularly talented expert or system to navigate them and still show a profit.

Take for example, one of the top rated football system-based tipsters here at SBC, who despite the home-team bias, still managed to make strong profit with a 17.1% ROI last season.

Due to his strict filters, he was able to filter out several potential (ultimately losing) away bets and end up with such a fine profit. Although his systems advised less bets than usual in an average season, it ensured his members were unaffected by this bias.

His success last season was no fluke either as this system has made a profit in each of the last 5 seasons – averaging a 12.7% ROI across the board.

You can read more about this tipster and several others in the recently released Football Tipster Guide for the 2017/18 season..

TPRJune17_468X60

The Best Tipsters For All Seasons (And Sports)

If you want to know about the best football tipsters (Plus horse racing, tennis, golf, nba, nlf and darts) then why not subscribe to the Smart Betting Club today and gain instant access to all these reports and more!

Best of all if joining the Smart Betting Club today you can also save up to a whopping £38 on the usual cost of membership.

This is because we have slashed the price of joining to ensure as many people as possible have access to our reports, magazines and guides.

We know we can make a difference to your punting – so why not sign-up right away and get started immediately. (There is a 90-day money back guarantee available after all!)

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor


pete

[/bs_r

Can You Win Betting On Football Accas? Free Report Inside


This Tipster Is – Download His Free Report!

If you enjoy betting on football, chances are you have posed the question…Can I make a profit betting on Football Accumulators? (or Accas as they are often termed)

Well the good news is YES you can profit from accas but only if following an expert tipster like Paul Ruffy, who has a proven strategy on how to make them pay.

Through his tipster service, Matchday Profits (which we have proofed extensively), Paul advises you on the best accas to place and with which bookmaker. So far he has made a minimum of 68 points profit at 43% Return on Investment from his accas alone.

Best of all, Paul has prepared a special free report on his successful football accumulator strategy, which he has kindly allowed me to share with you all today…

Download Paul’s Free ‘How To Win With Football Accumulators’ Report

To showcase his profitable Football Accumulator expertise, Paul has put together a free 12-page report on his betting strategy for you to download.

Click Here To Download Now (link opens up PDF file)

Within this free report you can read:

  • How he has turned the tables on the bookies (who view acca punters as cash cows);
  • Why his method is safe to follow (he is not bonus bagging)
  • His ‘Bankers & Base’ acca strategy and how you can replicate it;
  • His performance with and without acca insurance;
  • The best ‘acca’ bookmakers to place your bets with.

 

Over $1 Million In Profits Betting…

My total profits since joining the Smart Betting Club are well over $1 million of which SBC approved tipsters account for about 25% of that amount.”
As written by Billy McPherson – An SBC member since 2011

Click here to read more from Billy on his SBC experience

How Not To Be An Acca ‘Mug-Punter’

I am happy to recommend Paul and his Matchday Profits service, having examined it in detail on behalf of SBC members back in August 2016.

I was impressed by his unique and sensible strategy to make a profit betting on football accas, which traditionally have been viewed by bookmakers as a very lucrative market (It attracts what they term ‘mug-punters’).

Paul has turned this on its head as his results below prove (presented both with and without the of ‘acca insurance’)

matchday-profit

Acca insurance is an offer many bookies provide whereby if 1 selection in an acca of 5 or more loses, you get your money back or a free bet. It is not essential to place your bets with a bookie offering acca insurance, but it can help increase your profits.

A full review of Matchday Profits, can be found in Part 5 of our Essential Football Compendium.

Savings 468X60

 

Save £20 On The Cost Of A Year’s Membership

In an exclusive deal, all Smart Betting Club members can save £20 on the cost of a year’s subscription to Matchday Profits.

Instead of the usual price of £97 for a year, through the special discount link provided to you as a Smart Betting Club member, you can join Paul for just £77.

But be warned – Paul tells me that he genuinely won’t be able to offer this discount for much longer AND that he expects to have to increase the cost soon too.

So if you want to follow him in – NOW is the time to act.

If signing-up today, you can also jump on Paul’s advice for tonight’s Champions League games, including a likely £30 to £35 free offer from Bet365 you won’t want to miss.

As ever, this special saving is ONLY available to Smart Betting Club subscribers as part of the unique ‘Tipster Discounts‘ we negotiate on their behalf.

Due to the way SBC is funded by member subscriptions – we are able to negotiate these unique deals and pass 100% of the savings onto them. Helping line their pockets, not ours!

Once you have signed-up for your Smart Betting Club subscription, simply visit our members area, click on the ‘Tipster Savings’ link and you will find full details on how to take-up this special discounted Matchday Profits subscription (plus several other major trials and discounts unique to SBC!)

Subscribe Now And Get Started Immediately!

See you on the inside…

Peter Ling
SBC Editor

P.s. If you are more interested in betting on racing – check out this profitable Betfair SP tipster making big profits. He is also offering an exclusive 30 day trial for just £1 with an ongoing 50% discount for each month thereafter!

“90-Day 100% Satisfaction Money Back Guarantee”……

“I believe so strongly in SBC’s ability to help your betting, you can subscribe with a 100% cast-iron 90-day money back guarantee”.
SBC Editor – Peter Ling     Subscribe Now

pete

Video: How SBC’s 6-Part Football Compendium Can Help You This Season

>

In his latest video, SBC Editor, Peter Ling discusses how the Smart Betting Club’s amazing 6-part ‘Essential Football Betting Compendium’ can help you during the 2016/17 season.

The Essential Football Betting Compendium will help you whether a total newcomer or experienced campaigner when it comes to profitable football punting!

Check out all 6 parts of the Compendium below:

All 6 parts of the Essential Football Compendium are available to download the instant you subscribe to the Smart Betting Club.

The 2 New Football Tipsters With 12% ROI & £2302 Profit…

>
Part’s 4 & 5 of SBC’s 2016/17 Season Essential Football Betting Compendium have just been released – featuring reviews of 2 more profitable tipsters to check out!

Inside you can find details on the free football tipster with a 12% ROI last season (and how you can follow free in 2016/17) plus the outstanding ‘loophole’ tipster with a fantastic record.

PART 4) TIPSTER REVIEW: Free Football Tipster Guru (12% ROI)

SBC_FootballCompendium4

Enjoy this exclusive SBC review of the FREE Football Tipster with a fantastic 12% ROI record across both UK and European competitions during the 2015/16 season.

Read a full interview with the tipster in question plus details on how you can follow for free during the whole of the 2016/17 season

PART 5) TIPSTER REVIEW: Football Loophole Tipster (£2302 Profit)

SBC_FootballCompendium5

Check out the amazing Football ‘Loophole’ Tipster, who made a £2302 profit from just £3006 staked in 2015/16.

He utilises bookie specials, accas and shrewd low-risk bets to make some very easy to follow profits.

Best of all the first 20 SBC members to sign-up can save 20% on the cost of joining him!

What’s In Parts 1, 2, 3 & 6….

Our 2016/17 Essential Football Betting Compendium comes in 6 parts, with Parts 1, 2 & 3 already available and Part 6 due for release later this week.

Here is what is inside Parts 1, 2, 3 & 6:

Part 1: Sports Tipster Report: Discover just who the best sports tipsters are that we track. View tipster league tables & best buy rankings on 25 different experts. AVAILABLE NOW

Part 2: Football Tipster 2016/17 Guide: Read exclusive interviews and analysis on 13 top football tipsters – including those recommended in our Hall of Fame. AVAILABLE NOW

Part 3: Tipster Review 1: An exclusive review of the fantastic Brazilian Football Tipster that we have been tracking for 18 months – during which time he has scooped a 7.5% ROI from more than 750 Asian Handicap bets. AVAILABLE NOW

Part 6: Best Bookmaker Report: Read about the 4 betting exchanges and brokers you need to use – those that offer the best, most competitive odds and lowest commission rates. Includes exclusive interviews, reviews and analysis on each option. AVAILABLE FRIDAY 13TH

Read all about the Essential Football Betting Compendium

Save £16 on all SBC Subscriptions

Sign-Up Now & Gain Instant Access

The only way to pick up all 6 parts of this unique compendium is as a Smart Betting Club member.

The instant you join you gain full access to the SBC service and give yourself the best possible foundations to make this coming season a betting success.

If taking up either a Gold or Platinum subscription you can also enjoy the peace of mind of their  90-day Money Back Guarantee if not satisfied once joining! Ensuring you can sign-up totally risk-free, with everything to gain and nothing to lose.

Read more on how SBC can help you make money betting

Theory & Practice: How To Make Money Football Betting

>
Earlier this week we released Part 3 of our Essential Football Betting Compendium – featuring our exclusive review of the Brazilian Football Tipster that has really impressed us after stacking up some serious profits.

Predominantly, this was down to the tremendous performance of his Asian Handicap tips which have made 118 points profit from 757 bets and at a ROI of 7.5%.

Yet as I am at constantly urging readers of these emails to be aware – making a profit in theory and a profit in practice are often two very different things when betting.

After all – how many of you have experience betting in the Brazilian leagues and know exactly which bookmakers price these games up and how their odds stack up?

Not many of you I imagine!

So to gauge more on just how we could put these Brazilian tips profits into practice – we ran some very detailed odds analysis – Allow me to reveal all!


OUT TODAY: Part 4 Of The Essential Football Compendium

Enjoy this exclusive SBC review of the FREE Football Tipster with a fantastic 12% ROI record across both UK and European competitions during the 2015/16 season.

Read a full interview with the tipster in question plus details on how you can follow for free during the whole of the 16/17 season.

(Plus lookout for Part 5 on Monday featuring the amazing Football ‘Loophole’ Tipster, who made £2302 profit from just £3006 staked in 2015/16).

Gain Instant Access With SBC Membership

SBC_FootballCompendium4

 

3 MONTHS & 277 TIPS ODDS TRACKING…

As standard practice when reviewing a tipster, we initiate some very detailed odds tracking analysis, whereby we observe how the quoted odds a tipster put forward rise or fall.

If for example a tipster is going to settle a bet at 7/1, when you can only get 5/1 – there really is no point in following!

(Something I see time and time again in the racing world these days – be very careful of tipsters quoting big odds the night before racing as often its impossible to obtain them)

SBC Team member, David, is the man in charge of our odds tracking and he spends hours each week monitoring the betting markets and logging the odds for each tipster under our review microscope.

It’s a herculean task but it is a hugely worthwhile one as the results are often invaluable.

As part of the Brazilian tipster review, David tracked the price movements of 277 tips between March and June 2016. He used two bookmaker panels for this exercise; a “UK” panel (consisting of Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes, Matchbook, Paddy Power, VCBet, and William Hill), and an “Asian” panel (188bet, Pinnacle, and SBOBet).

The advised odds were recorded and compared to prices available on receipt of email, 60 minutes after receipt, and the closing (kick off) price.

Here is what he found – starting with the UK Bookmaker Panel:

Odds Tracking Results (UK Bookmaker Panel)

Advisedodds1

For those of you with only access to UK bookmaker accounts – the good news is that the odds available when the tips were received could be beaten by around 0.8% ROI on average. Those of you waiting up to 60 mins or when the odds close would be between 1.3% and 2.5% worse off.

Now moving onto the odds movement from our Asian Bookmaker Panel (best odds from Pinnacle, SBObet or 188bet) – here is what David found:

Odds Tracking Results (Asian Bookmaker Panel)

Advised-Odds2

Once again, the good news was that if placing your bet when it was received would result in a 1% increase in overall ROI – signifying the odds quoted by this tipster were both realistic and beatable.

More positive news came in the form of the odds available after 60 minutes had elapsed, which still showed an increase of 0.4% ROI.

468X60 gif (1)

WHAT WE LEARNT

The upshot of our odds tracking analysis told us a few things:

  • Those getting on as soon as they receive a tip can expect to improve ROI by between 0.8% and 1% ROI.
  • If getting on within an hour, you can expect at worst a 1.3% ROI drop if confined only to UK bookies or at best a 0.4% ROI increase if accessing other ‘Asian’ bookies.
  • The odds do move downwards between 0.9% and 2.5% ROI towards kick-off, indicating a tipster that has a clear edge on the betting market.

So to go back to our original question: Does this tipster make both a practice in theory and in practice?…The answer would have to be a resounding yes.

Of course, the profits you make are dependent upon which bookmakers you utilise. The more bookies and exchanges you hold accounts with, then the greater the odds you can achieve.

In actual fact these days you probably only need a few key accounts for football betting – something we will be covering in-depth in Part 6 of our Essential Football Betting Compendium (out next week!)

READ THIS REVIEW

You can read our full and detailed independent review of this particular Brazilian football tipster with a Smart Betting Club subscription (which currently you can save £16 on!)

By signing-up you will also gain full access to all 6 parts of our Essential Football Betting Compendium – all you need to make a profit on the beautiful game this 2016/17 season.

Subscribe to the Smart Betting Club

Save £16 on all SBC Subscriptions