Expert tipsters speak: Football betting tips this season & beyond

Last week saw the release of SBC’s new season Football Tipster Guide, featuring reviews, recommendations and detailed insight into 14 of the best football tipping experts we have uncovered over the years.

Inside the guide you can also read our interviews with several of the expert tipsters, where we grilled them not only on their performance but also for their advice on what it takes to make a profit betting.

Based on some of the answers given, I have put together this neat snapshot on some of the key points raised by this gang of experts.

In no particular order then – here are some of the expert tips for profiting on football this season and beyond…

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Use Expected Goals Wisely…

Expected Goals (xG) have started to come into mainstream football conversation recently, but it’s important to know how best to use them – especially from a betting perspective.

Bear in mind that bookies and syndicates alike have been using xG for years, so on its own, using it to choose your bets is no silver bullet strategy. Mike Holden of Fox Punter had these wise words to share on xG:

“Don’t get too fixated by ‘expected goals’. It’s a helpful metric to get a feel for how a team has been performing relative to recent results but no two models are the same and making a random website your primary tool isn’t going to give you any sort of discernible edge on the market.

The big syndicates are using xG models so much more advanced than anything you will find available publicly, and their money one week will shape the market the next. If you think you’ve found an angle due to some xG quirk you’ve casually spotted, you might simply be at the mercy of an inadequate model.

By all means keep abreast of shot data and xG values, just like older punters would have kept abreast of the league tables or form guides in a bygone era. But turning shot data into a profitable system is more about the algorithm you put it through rather than the actual data itself.”

Use Social Media

One bit of modern technology you can use is Social Media as a means of gathering information to help you with your bets, as Brodders explained:

“You can never have enough information. Obviously that’s readily available for the big European leagues but trawl through Twitter and other Social Media to get info on players and teams news which may not be factored in by bookies having to offer prices a few days in advance.”

It’s not just Twitter either, but message boards and fans forums, especially at lower league level or in unfashionable leagues abroad, can be a helpful tool.

Bookies know everything there is to know about team news when Man City play Liverpool, but could they say the same for Arbroath vs Clyde?

Find The Vulnerable Early-Season Favourites…

Although we didn’t see any ‘shocks’ in the Premier League this weekend, one expert feels that value can be had looking for vulnerable favourites across the European leagues in these first few weeks of the season.

An idea put forward by football expert, Motaliz, its logic is based on the fact the World Cup finished just a few weeks ago and many teams have had a disrupted start to proceedings.

“This season comes after the World Cup which means that the transfer market and the set-up of the teams will have a later effect than usual.

This implies that the majority of top teams (the ones that had the most players in the WC) will take some time to gel and click which could generate some early season opportunities for the ones that are able to detect some overpriced favourites.”

The likes of Tottenham & Man Utd might well fall into this category but they came up against an unhappy club in Newcastle and another with its own World Cup related issues (Leicester) last weekend. It’s a strategy I will be keeping an eye over the next few weeks in England and Europe when these big teams face the right opposition.

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Tailor Your Betting To You…

Each of us has a different approach to risk. Some of us wouldn’t think twice before bungee jumping, whilst others wouldn’t get within 200 ft of a bungee cable, let alone jump.

And it’s the same when betting as some of us like to back long-shots and can handle losing runs, whilst others need regular winners and a high strike-rate.

Therefore, the way you bet needs to be tailored to your risk as Greg Gordon puts it “You need to be honest with yourself and find a style of betting that suits your temperament and allows you to flourish.”

It’s a strategy he has applied himself to good effect to avoid the pain of losing as he outlined further…

“There’s a lot to be said for a steady graph and betting in a way that minimises losing runs and keeps the heartache to the minimum. It hasn’t been too painful for me over the years and I’ve tried to make it that way, purposefully. You should too.”

Is It Value & Can It Win?

Greg also had some excellent advice on the theory of finding value, as he fears too many punters purely look at this rather than the reality of whether a bet can win or not. As he puts it:

“I don’t have any strictly price call bets anymore. I always want strong football reasons to play – rather than just a bit of theoretical value.

When you price up a bet now ask yourself two questions: 1) Is it a value price? 2) Do I think it can win? If you can’t answer yes to both questions then I’d inclined to pass.”

Some might well disagree with this statement, yet given that Greg continues to fire in the profits, season after season, he is obviously onto something.

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SBC is dedicated to finding the best tipster services out there, so as you might imagine, advice on how to do that is at the forefront of some of the advice given such as the following points…

Too Good To Be True?

Non-league tipster, Skeeve bangs a drum I regularly hit, advocating caution that ‘if a tipster’s record looks too good to be true, it’s probably fake’ and that ‘if the selections aren’t proofed to a third party (such as SBC), they’re useless. This betting world is full of crooks and scammers, so please be cautious.’

This is particularly the case with many tipsters on social media where it’s very easy to setup new accounts when the old ones start to hit a losing run. If a tipster is unable to provide proof of their results, then move on.

Ask Lots Of Questions…

Another way to avoid being caught out is to do your due diligence as Stuart from Football Investor points out:

Do plenty of research before joining a service and don’t be afraid to ask them plenty of questions. There are many factors which could impact upon your likelihood of success following a tipster so it’s better to have this information in advance as mistakes can often prove costly.”

Longevity Matters

The length of time a tipster has been in operation is also key as Mike Lindley of Winabobatoo recommends to ‘find a betting service that you can trust and stick with them. If they’ve been around for a long time, they’re probably still here today because they get things right more often than they get things wrong’

After all – the average age of an SBC Hall of Fame service is over 3 years for a very good reason.

Don’t Quit Too Soon!

Finally, I want to wrap up todays email with some very salient advice from Chris Baier from Wisdom of Crowds who talked about ‘the single biggest mistake punters make’ – over-reacting to bad form and making key decisions based on this.

Chris wrote how he had seen this take place not just in the betting world, but also the financial world stating that:

“I recently saw the records of a very successful US Hedge Fund, that showed over 40% of their lifetime client base had actually lost money while investing with the fund!

This fund had a relatively consistent record of double digit annual gains over decades.”

What was the reason 40% of clients made a loss from this successful fund?

“Bad timing and illogical emotion” whereby those following the hedge fund bought into it when it was doing well and sold when doing poorly.

So instead of letting the markets do their thing and watching it all dispassionately, many of those who posted a loss thought they knew better and took their money out or added more at the wrong time.

I see this all the time when betting as punters flit from one winning service to another, rather than simply choosing a good one and sticking with it. And that ultimately can be very costly!

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Grab Your New Season Football Guide

I hope you have enjoyed this small snapshot into the interviews as found within this new season football guide.

You can read all of the interviews in full, alongside detailed write-ups, analysis and ratings on the best tipsters to follow thoughout the guide.

Available to download the instant you join the Smart Betting Club.

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

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Why so many football punters suffered ‘away day’ blues last season. 2017/18’s strange stats

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Whilst the 2017/18 football season in England will be remembered for many things – Man City’s 100 points, Wolves domination of the Championship and of course, little Accrington Stanley taking the League 2 title, for those of us that enjoy betting on the beautiful game, it will be remembered for some very different reasons.

Primarily this is down to some strange statistical quirks we saw throughout the top 4 English Leagues during the 2017/18 season. Stats that can teach us plenty about variance, luck and most of all – the patience needed to make a profit football betting.

Patience for many can be a dirty word when betting – especially from those punters not used to handling losing runs (I understand this – they can be tough!) but the reality is it’s something we all most get to grips with if we ever want to make our betting really pay.

It’s easy when you are winning but you find out the most about yourself and your betting when in a bad patch. After all – even the best punters are not immune to having a bad football season as pro punter Rory Campbell admits to in part 1 of these excellent videos.

So, in today’s email I want to showcase with you some strange stats for the English season in 2017/18, why ‘underdog’ backers suffered a huge drop AND just how you could have made a huge profit blind backing away teams.

(Note – all stats are based on the best odds available on the day of each game and at 10 point level stakes. It also runs up to the end of April – I have been unable to get stats on the last set of fixtures in the 3 lower leagues and last 2 fixtures in the Premier League as yet.)

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Why Football Betting Last Season (in England) Was So Strange

One of the biggest statistical quirks witnessed during the 2017/18 season for the top 4 English leagues was the form of what I term ‘underdogs’ away from home – those teams priced at 7/4 and above.

This is a particularly important trend as a lot of pro punters and tipsters regularly focus on value away from home, especially at the bigger prices (so 7/4 and above). Therefore, the form of these teams is vital, yet in 2017/18 we saw a major drop in the number of ‘underdog’ away wins.

To set the scene, for the 10 years prior to the 2017/18 season, below I have listed the average performance of away teams priced at 7/4 and over (if blindly backing all away teams at these odds). As with all the stats in this article, all bets are calculated to 10 point level stakes to win.

Away Teams 7/4 & Over 10 Season Total Loss: -3162 points, ROI -2.1%, 24.9% strike rate

Over an average season, we can reasonably expect to post a 316 point loss at -2.1% ROI and to hit a 24.9% strike-rate.

With only a -2.1% ROI to overcome, it’s easy to see why this is an area of intense focus, because with the right strategy, a profit is there to be made by filtering out unprofitable away underdogs.

Any strategy is always vulnerable to short-term fluctuations (Yes, I will call a season short-term as it’s not a huge data sample) and 2017/18 was a case in point. This is because backing away underdogs during the 2017/18 season generated the following figures:

Away Teams 7/4 & Over 2017/18 Season Total Loss: -1270 pts, ROI -9.2%, 23.2% strike rate

In short, the average points lost rose by 954 points, the ROI dropped 7.1% and the strike-rate by 1.7%.

Whilst a -2.1% ROI might be overcome, it’s very difficult to turn around a -9.2% ROI into profit if backing away teams 7/4 and over.

There were also clear fluctuations across each of the 4 English leagues as follows for these bets 7/4 and over:

Premier League: -370pts , ROI -14.9%, 17.7% strike rate

Championship: -294pts, ROI -7.7%, 24% strike rate

League One: -121pts, ROI -3.2%, 25.4% strike rate

League Two: -485pts, ROI -13.2%, 23.6% strike rate

League 2 was particularly bad with a -13.2% ROI and to put its specific stats in context, the worst season prior to 17/18 for League 2 was 14/15 with -152 points and -3.6% ROI.

When Backing Away Teams Has Been Profitable

To further back up what a strange season 2017/18 was, those of you blindly backing all away teams under 7/4 will conversely have made a fine profit.

That is because if backing all away teams to win at odds under 2.75 (staking 10 points on each bet) in the Premier League , Championship, League One and Two you would have made a profit of 471 points at 8.5% ROI and hit a 48.9% strike-rate.

It’s not very often than you can blindly back favourites away from home in all those leagues and get a nice profit, yet that is exactly what happened in 17/18.

This trend gets stronger if we drop the Premier League and concentrate on the 3 lower leagues.The profit rises to 531 points and the ROI goes up to 11.7%!

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What Can We Do About This?

So with all the strange patterns seen in the 2017/18 season, what are we to do as punters?

The first thing when we see trends like this is to ask if anything has changed to influence a lower strike-rate of winners away from home.

Are away teams less prepared, dealing with longer-travel times or banned from taking away supporters with them for example?

The answer to all of these questions is no. To my mind there is no actual logical reason why all of a sudden, away teams at bigger prices are under-performing.

The reason lies with what is termed Variance, which is something we see over relatively small samples of data.

Variance in its most simple terms is the difference from one data set to the mean. For example, if comparing what we made in one season during 2017/18 to what has been achieved over the past 10 seasons as a whole.

…And when comparing the 17/18 data set from the 10 year average we see plenty of variance at play.

One key reason for this is that football games are in the main tight affairs decided by 1 goal. 1-0 is the most common scoreline historically and even in League 2 this season, 67.31% of all games were decided by 1 goal or less.

The margin for error is therefore very slim and it’s easy to see weird trends like this over a small sample size such as one season.

It’s Your Time In The Game, Not Timing That Matters Most

So there you have it, some strange stats from the 2017/18 season and plenty of food for us football punters.

Ultimately, we can expect to realistically see these away trends change in time and no doubt there will be a season soon when we see the opposite apply – A higher proportion of away winners over 7/4 and a lower number under 7/4.

When exactly this will take place is anyone’s guess (unless you have the ability to predict the future) so we must be patient to wait it out until it does.

As one punting pro put it to me lately – it’s not the timing of when you start betting, but your time in betting that matters most.

Because as long as you have a valid long-term method, you might be unlucky based on when you start and the early results but long-term it will all even out in your favour.

As long as you have the patience to STAY IN and ride out quirky stats like seen above.

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Why We Recommend Tipsters With Long-Term Records Only

We apply this long-term logic to the tipsters we review and recommend, preferring to judge tipsters over a deep set of stats, rather than a few months here and there.

Any tipster can pick up a few winners by chance over a few weeks or even months, yet it’s only when they have a definitive edge long-term that we can rely on them to make us money.

It’s why the average length of time a SBC Hall of Fame rated tipster has been going for is over 4 years, because these are the tipsters that have proven themselves profitable long-term.

After all, were we to judge a tipster over a shorter period of time, we might find ourselves recommending tipsters who have an edge simple due to luck, rather than skill.

A football tipster that made a profit by backing away teams under 7/4 last season would be a prime example. Do they have a real edge or were they just lucky given the higher than average proportion of winners at these odds last season? Ultimately, only time will really tell on that front.

So, if you are after long-term, sensible advice on the best tipsters with proven records making money betting, do consider a Smart Betting Club membership.

You can get started instantly with a 90 day anytime money back guarantee to boot.

Sign-up To The Smart Betting Club

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Owner/Founder

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Rocket Scientists Look Away – Football Betting Made Easy

When I tell people about my gambling activities, their reaction usually follows a three step pattern:

  1. Concern for my well being.
  2. Intrigued that you can actually make money betting.
  3.  Laugh and say it all sounds a bit complex to them – They’ll stick to betting on the horse with the funniest name in the Grand National.

But you don’t need a degree in rocket science to make money, especially with football betting. In fact I’ll prove it to you….

An Easy To Follow Football Tipster

Take for example the football tipster service we reviewed in our latest Smart Betting Club magazine (published earlier this week), which is simplicity itself to follow.

They are a long-established football match-ratings and betting advice service who have developed a huge database on the sport. You can follow them in 2 ways…

  1. Follow some of their established football systems and pick up their tips each week. OR
  2. Use their database and ratings to build your own football systems.

The focus of our review was on two of these established football systems, both of which have excellent results and are extremely easy to follow. Allow me to reveal more… Continue reading

Premier League Fink Tank Value Betting Results Update

This season in the Premier League, we have been using the free Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings to help us spot value bets.

We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using the same value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings give a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

We’ve been tracking all the qualifiers this season for our members on our forum [membership required]. First here’s a recap on last season’s results. Continue reading

Champions league value bets: Man City over priced at Villarreal

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, the ratings haven’t landed any major shocks.
Bets: 45
Profit/ loss: -17.75 points
Tuesday’s games:  
First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Villarreal vs Man City: Man City 51.6% Chance. No value with City.
  • Man U vs Otelul: Man U 87.2% chance. No value with Man U.
  • Arsenal vs Marseille: Arsenal 56.1% chance. No value in Arsenal.
  • Genk vs Chelsea: Chelsea 71% chance. No value with Chelsea.
The English clubs are all likely winners but the bookies are offering no value according to the ratings. Continue reading

Are Man United more dangerous after a shock defeat?

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

Manchester United didn’t just lose against Man City, they were demolished. They suffered their worst home defeat last weekend since the formation of the Premier League, and in the process drifted out to 2/1 second-favourites to be lifting the trophy in May.

A popular theory is that this makes United more dangerous to their opponents in their next game because they are looking to avenge their loss.

But is this true?

We have examined the data across Europe’s Big 5 leagues to find out if there are any trends that might point to an instant return to form for United this weekend against Everton. Continue reading

How to spot when teams are over-performing

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

A look at the Big Five European leagues shows that teams that are over-performing in comparison to the previous season tend to fall back during the season and by spotting these sides we have the basis for a successful strategy.

Using a sample that includes almost all Premier League matches since the start of the 1998/99 season we have a total of 920 games where a team has been 4-7 positions higher in the table than they finished the previous season. Had you backed their opponents every time you would have achieved a 5% profit on turnover.  Backing the over-performing side would have yielded a 23% loss and the draw would have been a 15% loss. This is based on average odds, taking the top odds could yield better results.

Narrowing this sample to matches where the teams in question were playing away and were not playing an opponent who also fit the profile we are left with 456 matches and a profit of 13% from backing their opponents (37% loss backing the highlighted teams and 11% loss on the draw). Continue reading

The Latest SBC Sports Betting Magazine Out Now

If you are keen to take your own betting to the next level, then our latest Sports Betting magazine (Issue 64) might well be right up your street.

It includes our three part essential guide to in play football betting, which we have been showcasing samples of in recent blog posts, as well as a host of tipster reviews, interviews and profitable strategies to follow.

  • Part 1 of the in play guide tackles the brave new world of in-play betting, featuring strategies, practical advice and analysis on every part of sports betting’s biggest growth area.

Continue reading

The SBC Interviews: Goran Trpevski

Goran Trpevski is the creator of Goran’s Live Bets, one of the few tipster services that takes advantage of in play football betting, where he has a superb track record of making money.

Here, in an exclusive interview extract, he gives us the low down on his approach to betting live and in play and how he makes it work. Continue reading

How To Bet: Under/ Over Goal Betting Explained

One of the most popular modern day betting markets is the number of goals in a game – usually the Over/Under 2.5 goals line.

This sometimes confuses people who are new to football betting as there is obviously no such thing as half a goal!

So what exactly are you betting on when it comes to Over or Under 2.5 goals?

Allow me to explain.

What Does 2.5 Goals Mean?

The term 2.5 goals is used because you are betting on one of the following:

  • 2 goals or less being scored (The Under 2.5 goals market)
  • 3 goals or more being scored (The Over 2.5 goals market)

The number 2.5 is used because it falls in the middle of both markets.

You either think a game will be a low scoring one with 2 goals or less OR you think there will be goals a-plenty, with 3 goals or more.

If you bet on less than 2.5 goals and the game finishes 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1 then your bet is a winner.

Yet if bet on less than 2.5 goals and the game finishes 2-1 or higher, then your bet is a loser.

And as the number of goals on average in a football game hovers around the 2.5 marker (although this varies based on trends, leagues and time of year) then its the usual market on offer.

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Over/Under 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 and More!

The Over/Under 2.5 goals market isn’t the only option available to you though. If we look at the odds for this sample game, we can see a whole range of Over/Under goal lines:

The majority of bookmakers (43) are pricing up the Over/Under 2.5 goals line, but there are also a number at Over/Under +0.5, +1.5, +3.5, and so on.

Although they sound confusing, some of these these lines are actually relatively easy to understand as follows:

  • Over/ Under 0.5 goals means you want either 1 goal (over) or more or no goals (under).
  • Over/ Under 1.5 goals means you want either 2 goals (over) or more or 1 goal or less (under).
  • Over/ Under 3.5 goals means you want either 4 goals (over) or more or 3 goal or less (under).

Other Common Over/Under Goal Lines

The Over/Under lines don’t stop there, as you can often regularly bet on a whole range of other similar markets.

Many bookmakers for example will offer an Over/Under 2 goals betting market. The difference between this and the Over/Under 2.5 goals line is that you get your money back if the game has exactly 2 goals.

Finally to make this just a little more complex, you can also split your stakes by using the Over/Under 2.25 goals market. One half of your stake will go on the 2.5 goals line and the other half on the 2 goals line.

I appreciate this might sound complex so to help explain more, here is a quick summary guide to the different Over/Under lines and what it all means!

Learn More With A Smart Betting Club Membership

If you enjoyed this article, you can find more like this in the in-depth Pro Gambler Blueprint supplied to all new Smart Betting Club members, which provides everything you need to set up your betting properly.

This 100-page blueprint features advice and guidance from seasoned professional gamblers in seven easy to follow sections:

  • Part One: Solid Foundations – Avoid common newbie mistakes by getting your betting off on the right foot.
  • Part Two: Money Matters – Betting bankroll management and how to maximise your profits
  • Part Three: Mindset and What Makes A Winner– Key lessons on what really matters from betting pro’s
  • Part Four: What To Bet On – Football and Horse Racing absolute essentials
  • Part Five: Being Realistic – Tipsters or Systems? How to decide what suits you best
  • Part Six: You’re The Boss – How to develop your own betting niche and become your own expert
  • Part Seven: Bookie Bashing – How to keep under the bookmaker’s radar

 

Subscribe Now & Gain Instant Access!

We have over 11 years experience of helping people make money betting and have plenty on offer to help you make 2017 your best punting year yet.

 

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Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

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