Expert tipsters speak: Football betting tips this season & beyond

Last week saw the release of SBC’s new season Football Tipster Guide, featuring reviews, recommendations and detailed insight into 14 of the best football tipping experts we have uncovered over the years.

Inside the guide you can also read our interviews with several of the expert tipsters, where we grilled them not only on their performance but also for their advice on what it takes to make a profit betting.

Based on some of the answers given, I have put together this neat snapshot on some of the key points raised by this gang of experts.

In no particular order then – here are some of the expert tips for profiting on football this season and beyond…

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Use Expected Goals Wisely…

Expected Goals (xG) have started to come into mainstream football conversation recently, but it’s important to know how best to use them – especially from a betting perspective.

Bear in mind that bookies and syndicates alike have been using xG for years, so on its own, using it to choose your bets is no silver bullet strategy. Mike Holden of Fox Punter had these wise words to share on xG:

“Don’t get too fixated by ‘expected goals’. It’s a helpful metric to get a feel for how a team has been performing relative to recent results but no two models are the same and making a random website your primary tool isn’t going to give you any sort of discernible edge on the market.

The big syndicates are using xG models so much more advanced than anything you will find available publicly, and their money one week will shape the market the next. If you think you’ve found an angle due to some xG quirk you’ve casually spotted, you might simply be at the mercy of an inadequate model.

By all means keep abreast of shot data and xG values, just like older punters would have kept abreast of the league tables or form guides in a bygone era. But turning shot data into a profitable system is more about the algorithm you put it through rather than the actual data itself.”

Use Social Media

One bit of modern technology you can use is Social Media as a means of gathering information to help you with your bets, as Brodders explained:

“You can never have enough information. Obviously that’s readily available for the big European leagues but trawl through Twitter and other Social Media to get info on players and teams news which may not be factored in by bookies having to offer prices a few days in advance.”

It’s not just Twitter either, but message boards and fans forums, especially at lower league level or in unfashionable leagues abroad, can be a helpful tool.

Bookies know everything there is to know about team news when Man City play Liverpool, but could they say the same for Arbroath vs Clyde?

Find The Vulnerable Early-Season Favourites…

Although we didn’t see any ‘shocks’ in the Premier League this weekend, one expert feels that value can be had looking for vulnerable favourites across the European leagues in these first few weeks of the season.

An idea put forward by football expert, Motaliz, its logic is based on the fact the World Cup finished just a few weeks ago and many teams have had a disrupted start to proceedings.

“This season comes after the World Cup which means that the transfer market and the set-up of the teams will have a later effect than usual.

This implies that the majority of top teams (the ones that had the most players in the WC) will take some time to gel and click which could generate some early season opportunities for the ones that are able to detect some overpriced favourites.”

The likes of Tottenham & Man Utd might well fall into this category but they came up against an unhappy club in Newcastle and another with its own World Cup related issues (Leicester) last weekend. It’s a strategy I will be keeping an eye over the next few weeks in England and Europe when these big teams face the right opposition.

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Tailor Your Betting To You…

Each of us has a different approach to risk. Some of us wouldn’t think twice before bungee jumping, whilst others wouldn’t get within 200 ft of a bungee cable, let alone jump.

And it’s the same when betting as some of us like to back long-shots and can handle losing runs, whilst others need regular winners and a high strike-rate.

Therefore, the way you bet needs to be tailored to your risk as Greg Gordon puts it “You need to be honest with yourself and find a style of betting that suits your temperament and allows you to flourish.”

It’s a strategy he has applied himself to good effect to avoid the pain of losing as he outlined further…

“There’s a lot to be said for a steady graph and betting in a way that minimises losing runs and keeps the heartache to the minimum. It hasn’t been too painful for me over the years and I’ve tried to make it that way, purposefully. You should too.”

Is It Value & Can It Win?

Greg also had some excellent advice on the theory of finding value, as he fears too many punters purely look at this rather than the reality of whether a bet can win or not. As he puts it:

“I don’t have any strictly price call bets anymore. I always want strong football reasons to play – rather than just a bit of theoretical value.

When you price up a bet now ask yourself two questions: 1) Is it a value price? 2) Do I think it can win? If you can’t answer yes to both questions then I’d inclined to pass.”

Some might well disagree with this statement, yet given that Greg continues to fire in the profits, season after season, he is obviously onto something.

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SBC is dedicated to finding the best tipster services out there, so as you might imagine, advice on how to do that is at the forefront of some of the advice given such as the following points…

Too Good To Be True?

Non-league tipster, Skeeve bangs a drum I regularly hit, advocating caution that ‘if a tipster’s record looks too good to be true, it’s probably fake’ and that ‘if the selections aren’t proofed to a third party (such as SBC), they’re useless. This betting world is full of crooks and scammers, so please be cautious.’

This is particularly the case with many tipsters on social media where it’s very easy to setup new accounts when the old ones start to hit a losing run. If a tipster is unable to provide proof of their results, then move on.

Ask Lots Of Questions…

Another way to avoid being caught out is to do your due diligence as Stuart from Football Investor points out:

Do plenty of research before joining a service and don’t be afraid to ask them plenty of questions. There are many factors which could impact upon your likelihood of success following a tipster so it’s better to have this information in advance as mistakes can often prove costly.”

Longevity Matters

The length of time a tipster has been in operation is also key as Mike Lindley of Winabobatoo recommends to ‘find a betting service that you can trust and stick with them. If they’ve been around for a long time, they’re probably still here today because they get things right more often than they get things wrong’

After all – the average age of an SBC Hall of Fame service is over 3 years for a very good reason.

Don’t Quit Too Soon!

Finally, I want to wrap up todays email with some very salient advice from Chris Baier from Wisdom of Crowds who talked about ‘the single biggest mistake punters make’ – over-reacting to bad form and making key decisions based on this.

Chris wrote how he had seen this take place not just in the betting world, but also the financial world stating that:

“I recently saw the records of a very successful US Hedge Fund, that showed over 40% of their lifetime client base had actually lost money while investing with the fund!

This fund had a relatively consistent record of double digit annual gains over decades.”

What was the reason 40% of clients made a loss from this successful fund?

“Bad timing and illogical emotion” whereby those following the hedge fund bought into it when it was doing well and sold when doing poorly.

So instead of letting the markets do their thing and watching it all dispassionately, many of those who posted a loss thought they knew better and took their money out or added more at the wrong time.

I see this all the time when betting as punters flit from one winning service to another, rather than simply choosing a good one and sticking with it. And that ultimately can be very costly!

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Grab Your New Season Football Guide

I hope you have enjoyed this small snapshot into the interviews as found within this new season football guide.

You can read all of the interviews in full, alongside detailed write-ups, analysis and ratings on the best tipsters to follow thoughout the guide.

Available to download the instant you join the Smart Betting Club.

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

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Under the microscope: 14 of 2018/19’s best football tipsters

 

The new season is nearly upon us and to help you find the best football tipster(s), you must check out our fantastic new 2018/19 Season Football Tipster Guide!

Inside it features our take on 14 of the very best football tipsters we have uncovered with updated ratings, rankings and recommendations on the best experts for the new season.

You can also read detailed interviews with many of the tipsters including their strategies for the coming season and their tips and advice on how to make a profit football betting.

Tackling tipsters betting across the globe on leagues from Spain to Scotland and Brazil to Belgium, it’s your one-stop-shop for finding the best football betting experts.

Sign-up now to gain instant access (and the entire SBC back catalogue)

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Significant SBC Member Discounts

Inside the 2018/19 Season Football Tipster Guide you can also read details on several significant discounts available of the cost of these tipsters – exclusively available to SBC members.

You can often save more than the cost of a Smart Betting Club membership with many of these discounts combined!

The savings include:

  • £100 off the cost of a season with the ‘Hall of Fame’ Scottish football expert;
  • 15% discount on a top rated South American tipster;
  • 30% discount off your first purchase of any Pyckio.com football tipster;
  • £1 monthly subscription to an up and coming football ratings tipster;
  • Up to £40 off the cost of one of the most popular system based tipsters;
  • £31.75 discount on the cost of the acca and free bets loophole tipster;
  • £32 off the cost of joining another long-running ratings based football service;
  • £25 discount on your first month with another ‘Hall of Fame’ European football tipster;
  • 125 Euros discount on the cost of a season with a non-league football guru.

Full details on these savings (and many others) are available to you with access to the Smart Betting Club website.

Click here to read more on other SBC member only discounts currently available.


“My Net Profit Was In Excess Of £58,000”

“I have just conducted a review of the tipster performance for 2017 and my net profit was in excess of £58,000, the majority of it coming from horse racing.”
Michael – An SBC Member For 5 Years

Read more from Michael on his profits last year

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Gain Instant Access & Save Up To £45 On An SBC Membership

If you want to know about the best football tipsters (Plus Horse Racing, Tennis, Golf, NBA, NFL, Darts & many other sports) then subscribe to the Smart Betting Club today and gain instant access to all our expert betting reports.

Best of all if joining the Smart Betting Club today you can also save up to a whopping £45 on the usual cost of membership.

This is because we have slashed the price of joining to ensure as many people as possible have access to our reports, magazines and guides.

We know we can make a difference to your punting – so why not sign-up right away and get started immediately. (There is a 90-day money back guarantee available after all)

Best Regards,
Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

Pete_HeadShot_SMall

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Parts 1 to 5 Essential Football Compendium 2017/18 Season Now Available

The 5th and final part of SBC’s 2017/18 Essential Football Betting Compendium is now available – our exclusive review of the Football Tipping Expert profitable across all 4 major English leagues.

With a record of 1047 points profit as generated from 2700 bets across the past 5 seasons in the Premier League, Championship, League 1 and League 2 – this expert has really grabbed our attention.

Our review explores the profits made by this service, including a look at some intriguing compound staking options and details on the exclusive subscription options for SBC members interested in joining.

You can read this review and the other 4 parts of our new football season guide the instant you join the Smart Betting Club.

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Also – Grab Parts 1, 2, 3 & 4 Of Our New Football Season Compendium

Alongside instant access to this English Tipster Review (Part 5), you can also access Parts 1, 2, 3 & 4 of our 2017/18 Essential Football Compendium the instant you join the Smart Betting Club.

Part 1 is our Sports Tipster Report which features updates on 24 of the best sports betting experts we continually monitor. Including details on the new Hall of Fame Tennis tipster hitting a 10.5% ROI from 1480 tips AND the Baseball expert averaging 133% betting bank growth each year.

Part 2 is our 17/18 Football Tipster Guide, which features our take on 12 of the very best football tipsters we monitor with updated ratings, rankings and recommendations for the new season. You can also read detailed interviews with several of the expert tipsters included on their strategies for the coming season and how best to maximise their advice.

Part 3 is our in-depth review of The Football Guru service from the Betting Gods tipster network. We examine their pre-match and in-play tips from this popular expert to gauge exactly how their performance stacks up. For those interested in the service, there is also a free 60 day trial available.

Part 4 is our Exchange & Bet Broker Guide, providing the rundown on 4 of the best firms to bet with both this coming season and for other sports such as Horse Racing, Golf & Tennis. It also includes an interview with each of the firms on what they offer, the advantages of using them and who they are suitable for. A must-read if you want to get better value odds!

Join SBC Risk-Free Now (90 Day Money Back Guarantee)

You can gain full access to the 5-part Essential Football Compendium the instant you sign-up as a Smart Betting Club member.

What’s more, you can also now join with the full peace of mind provided by our full 90-day make money guarantee.

Sign-up for either a Gold or Platinum membership and if you don’t like what you see, you can get your money back at any time during your first 90 days as a member.

No questions asked!

If you sign-up and don’t like what we offer for any reason, email us and we will process a full refund. It’s that simple.

Best of all if joining the Smart Betting Club today you can also save up to a whopping £38 on the usual cost of membership.

This is because we have slashed the price of joining to ensure as many people as possible have access to our reports, magazines and guides.

We know we can make a difference to your punting – so why not sign-up right away and get started immediately.

See you on the inside.

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor


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Under The Microscope: 2017/18’s Best Football Tipsters

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The new season is nearly upon us and to help you find the best football tipster(s), you must check out our fantastic new 2017/18 Season Football Tipster Guide!

Inside it features our take on 12 of the very best football tipsters we monitor with updated ratings, rankings and recommendations for the new season.

You can also read detailed interviews with several of the expert tipsters included on their strategies for the coming season and how best to maximise their advice.

Sign-up now to gain instant access (and the entire SBC back catalogue)

The 2017/18 Season Football Tipster Guide

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Significant SBC Member Discounts

Inside the 2017/18 Season Football Tipster Guide you can also read details on several significant discounts available on the cost of these tipsters – exclusively available to SBC members.

You can often save more than the cost of a Smart Betting Club membership with many of these discounts combined!

The discounts include:

  • 15% discount on a top rated South American tipster
  • 10% discount worth £34.90 on a major football league tipster
  • Up to £40 off the cost of one of the most popular system based tipsters
  • A 25% discount on the cost of the Matchday Profits service (worth £31.75)
  • £100 off the cost of a season with a well liked Scottish football expert
  • 60 Euros discount on the cost of a season with a non-league football guru

Full details on these savings (and many others) are available to you with access to the Smart Betting Club website.

Subscribe now to take full advantage and save!

Team Up With These 2 Other SBC Reports

An an SBC member you can also access two other reports to help provide you with the most comprehensive guide to the best tipsters: The latest Sports Tipster Profit Report AND Horse Racing Tipster Profit Report.

The Sports Tipster Report was released last week and features updates on 24 of the best sports betting experts we continually monitor. Including details on the new Hall of Fame Tennis tipster hitting a 10.5% ROI from 1480 tips AND the Baseball expert averaging 133% betting bank growth each year.

Secondly, our latest Horse Racing Tipster Profit Report was released in June and provides the complete rundown on the best 34 racing tipsters for you to follow. Including the on-fire racing expert averaging 6X betting bank growth annually AND the free tipster up £2713 since June 2016.

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 Gain Instant Access & Save Up To £38 On An SBC Membership!

If you want to know about the best football tipsters (Plus horse racing, tennis, golf, nba, nlf and darts) then why not subscribe to the Smart Betting Club today and gain instant access to all these reports and more!

Best of all if joining the Smart Betting Club today you can also save up to a whopping £38 on the usual cost of membership.

This is because we have slashed the price of joining to ensure as many people as possible have access to our reports, magazines and guides.

We know we can make a difference to your punting – so why not sign-up right away and get started immediately. (There is a 90-day money back guarantee available after all!)

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

pete

The Tipster Making £2,378 Annually From 16 Bets Per Month

If there is one thing we are known for at the Smart Betting Club it’s our Hall of Fame of the best tipsters to follow – effectively those proven to make you money betting.

Yet if you are like most people you will likely have 2 key questions you want answering before you start following the best tipsters…

1. How Much Money Will It Make You?
And
2. How Much Time Will It Take?

Allow me to quickly answer both questions and show you how easy and profitable it can be if following the right tipster, including how one tipster supplying just 16 bets a month makes an average profit of £2,378 a year. Continue reading

Fink Tank Value System Update: Big Winners landed

It’s been an interesting festive period to say the least with the big teams  appearing to join Wayne Rooney in focusing more on the festive cheer than their hard working opponents.

Most of the top teams were over turned in the festive/ new year period with last night’s Man U defeat the icing on the cake. It’s been a bad period for Alex Ferguson, but the Fink Tank value system has had a cracking time. Here are some of the bets it picked out recently:

  • Villa to beat Chelsea away at 14.8.
  • Blackburn to beat Man U away at 21.0
  • Sunderland to beat Man City at home at 7.0
  • Fulham to beat Arsenal at 4.33
  • Bolton to beat Everton away at 7.5
  • Newcastle to beat Man U at home at 5.5

Continue reading

Premier League Fink Tank Value Betting Results Update

This season in the Premier League, we have been using the free Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings to help us spot value bets.

We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using the same value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings give a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

We’ve been tracking all the qualifiers this season for our members on our forum [membership required]. First here’s a recap on last season’s results. Continue reading

The Free Bets That Would Have Grown Your Bank By 116%

One question we are often posed here at the Smart Betting Club refers to what type of bets a keen punter should look to focus on if he wants to be a success, especially when betting on Football.

Very often the simple answer for this is…look at the type of bets the bookmakers advertise and then go nowhere near them!

Because if you were to login to a bookies website or visit your local turf accountant shop, you would quickly notice the type of bets they advertise, which are in markets such as…

  • First goalscorer
  • Correct score
  • Refunds if a certain player scores the winner

It isn’t because bookmakers have suddenly seen the light and actually want you to win money, but more the fact they know these type of bets are very hard to call.

The bottom line is these type of bets pay for bookies to go on holiday…or more likely these days,  swell the shareholders coffers!

Therefore the next question that might fall from your lips could well be…

So what bets should you look for when football betting? Continue reading

Will boring Villa scupper Man City’s hot streak?

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help analyse some of the current winning and losing streaks of teams in the English Premier League to identify what might happen next.

Man City are flying, having won eight home games on the bounce, but can they keep it up?

To simplify the analysis, the streaks primarily refer to each team playing at home or away respectively going back to 2006. E.g. We’re only looking at the home winning/ losing streaks not their home and way performance.

Man City (8 home wins) vs Aston Villa (3 away draws)

  • Man City have won eight home games on the bounce just once before, winning the next game against Bolton 4-2.
  • In the history of the Premier League since 2006, there have been 12 instances of teams winning 8 home games on the bounce. The hot team won their next home game 75% of the time, making a small profit of 0.4 points. The last team to do this was Manchester United who happened to beat Villa in their next game.
  • Villa have drawn three away games on the bounce just twice before, drawing once and losing the other time.
  • Since 2006 there have been 23 instances of teams drawing three consecutive away games. Backing the away team is unsurprisingly a bad option, with the draw masters winning the next game just 13% of the time and losing 48% of the time. Backing another draw isn’t a bad shout though, it happened 39% of the time returning a profit of 9.9 points.

Wigan (DWDWL from last 5 home) vs Bolton (3 points from last 5 games)

  • Bolton are rooted at the foot of the table having secured just one win this season. They been in a situation of having scored between 2-4 points from 5 away games 40 times before. The odds of a turnaround tomorrow aren’t great with Bolton losing their next away game 70% of the time.
  • Backing Bolton to lose the next away game would have actually returned a profit of +8.7 points from 40 games.
  • Historically since 2006, any Premier League team with just 2-4 points from their last 5 games has won the next match just 21% of the time and losing 53% of the time.
  • It’s not impossible that Bolton will turn it around tomorrow, but the odds are against it.

Pick up a Smart Betting Club membership to access all this and more.

 

Will boring Villa scupper Man City's hot streak?

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help analyse some of the current winning and losing streaks of teams in the English Premier League to identify what might happen next.

Man City are flying, having won eight home games on the bounce, but can they keep it up?

To simplify the analysis, the streaks primarily refer to each team playing at home or away respectively going back to 2006. E.g. We’re only looking at the home winning/ losing streaks not their home and way performance.

Man City (8 home wins) vs Aston Villa (3 away draws)

  • Man City have won eight home games on the bounce just once before, winning the next game against Bolton 4-2.
  • In the history of the Premier League since 2006, there have been 12 instances of teams winning 8 home games on the bounce. The hot team won their next home game 75% of the time, making a small profit of 0.4 points. The last team to do this was Manchester United who happened to beat Villa in their next game.
  • Villa have drawn three away games on the bounce just twice before, drawing once and losing the other time.
  • Since 2006 there have been 23 instances of teams drawing three consecutive away games. Backing the away team is unsurprisingly a bad option, with the draw masters winning the next game just 13% of the time and losing 48% of the time. Backing another draw isn’t a bad shout though, it happened 39% of the time returning a profit of 9.9 points.

Wigan (DWDWL from last 5 home) vs Bolton (3 points from last 5 games)

  • Bolton are rooted at the foot of the table having secured just one win this season. They been in a situation of having scored between 2-4 points from 5 away games 40 times before. The odds of a turnaround tomorrow aren’t great with Bolton losing their next away game 70% of the time.
  • Backing Bolton to lose the next away game would have actually returned a profit of +8.7 points from 40 games.
  • Historically since 2006, any Premier League team with just 2-4 points from their last 5 games has won the next match just 21% of the time and losing 53% of the time.
  • It’s not impossible that Bolton will turn it around tomorrow, but the odds are against it.

Pick up a Smart Betting Club membership to access all this and more.