Why so many football punters suffered ‘away day’ blues last season. 2017/18’s strange stats

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Whilst the 2017/18 football season in England will be remembered for many things – Man City’s 100 points, Wolves domination of the Championship and of course, little Accrington Stanley taking the League 2 title, for those of us that enjoy betting on the beautiful game, it will be remembered for some very different reasons.

Primarily this is down to some strange statistical quirks we saw throughout the top 4 English Leagues during the 2017/18 season. Stats that can teach us plenty about variance, luck and most of all – the patience needed to make a profit football betting.

Patience for many can be a dirty word when betting – especially from those punters not used to handling losing runs (I understand this – they can be tough!) but the reality is it’s something we all most get to grips with if we ever want to make our betting really pay.

It’s easy when you are winning but you find out the most about yourself and your betting when in a bad patch. After all – even the best punters are not immune to having a bad football season as pro punter Rory Campbell admits to in part 1 of these excellent videos.

So, in today’s email I want to showcase with you some strange stats for the English season in 2017/18, why ‘underdog’ backers suffered a huge drop AND just how you could have made a huge profit blind backing away teams.

(Note – all stats are based on the best odds available on the day of each game and at 10 point level stakes. It also runs up to the end of April – I have been unable to get stats on the last set of fixtures in the 3 lower leagues and last 2 fixtures in the Premier League as yet.)

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Why Football Betting Last Season (in England) Was So Strange

One of the biggest statistical quirks witnessed during the 2017/18 season for the top 4 English leagues was the form of what I term ‘underdogs’ away from home – those teams priced at 7/4 and above.

This is a particularly important trend as a lot of pro punters and tipsters regularly focus on value away from home, especially at the bigger prices (so 7/4 and above). Therefore, the form of these teams is vital, yet in 2017/18 we saw a major drop in the number of ‘underdog’ away wins.

To set the scene, for the 10 years prior to the 2017/18 season, below I have listed the average performance of away teams priced at 7/4 and over (if blindly backing all away teams at these odds). As with all the stats in this article, all bets are calculated to 10 point level stakes to win.

Away Teams 7/4 & Over 10 Season Total Loss: -3162 points, ROI -2.1%, 24.9% strike rate

Over an average season, we can reasonably expect to post a 316 point loss at -2.1% ROI and to hit a 24.9% strike-rate.

With only a -2.1% ROI to overcome, it’s easy to see why this is an area of intense focus, because with the right strategy, a profit is there to be made by filtering out unprofitable away underdogs.

Any strategy is always vulnerable to short-term fluctuations (Yes, I will call a season short-term as it’s not a huge data sample) and 2017/18 was a case in point. This is because backing away underdogs during the 2017/18 season generated the following figures:

Away Teams 7/4 & Over 2017/18 Season Total Loss: -1270 pts, ROI -9.2%, 23.2% strike rate

In short, the average points lost rose by 954 points, the ROI dropped 7.1% and the strike-rate by 1.7%.

Whilst a -2.1% ROI might be overcome, it’s very difficult to turn around a -9.2% ROI into profit if backing away teams 7/4 and over.

There were also clear fluctuations across each of the 4 English leagues as follows for these bets 7/4 and over:

Premier League: -370pts , ROI -14.9%, 17.7% strike rate

Championship: -294pts, ROI -7.7%, 24% strike rate

League One: -121pts, ROI -3.2%, 25.4% strike rate

League Two: -485pts, ROI -13.2%, 23.6% strike rate

League 2 was particularly bad with a -13.2% ROI and to put its specific stats in context, the worst season prior to 17/18 for League 2 was 14/15 with -152 points and -3.6% ROI.

When Backing Away Teams Has Been Profitable

To further back up what a strange season 2017/18 was, those of you blindly backing all away teams under 7/4 will conversely have made a fine profit.

That is because if backing all away teams to win at odds under 2.75 (staking 10 points on each bet) in the Premier League , Championship, League One and Two you would have made a profit of 471 points at 8.5% ROI and hit a 48.9% strike-rate.

It’s not very often than you can blindly back favourites away from home in all those leagues and get a nice profit, yet that is exactly what happened in 17/18.

This trend gets stronger if we drop the Premier League and concentrate on the 3 lower leagues.The profit rises to 531 points and the ROI goes up to 11.7%!

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What Can We Do About This?

So with all the strange patterns seen in the 2017/18 season, what are we to do as punters?

The first thing when we see trends like this is to ask if anything has changed to influence a lower strike-rate of winners away from home.

Are away teams less prepared, dealing with longer-travel times or banned from taking away supporters with them for example?

The answer to all of these questions is no. To my mind there is no actual logical reason why all of a sudden, away teams at bigger prices are under-performing.

The reason lies with what is termed Variance, which is something we see over relatively small samples of data.

Variance in its most simple terms is the difference from one data set to the mean. For example, if comparing what we made in one season during 2017/18 to what has been achieved over the past 10 seasons as a whole.

…And when comparing the 17/18 data set from the 10 year average we see plenty of variance at play.

One key reason for this is that football games are in the main tight affairs decided by 1 goal. 1-0 is the most common scoreline historically and even in League 2 this season, 67.31% of all games were decided by 1 goal or less.

The margin for error is therefore very slim and it’s easy to see weird trends like this over a small sample size such as one season.

It’s Your Time In The Game, Not Timing That Matters Most

So there you have it, some strange stats from the 2017/18 season and plenty of food for us football punters.

Ultimately, we can expect to realistically see these away trends change in time and no doubt there will be a season soon when we see the opposite apply – A higher proportion of away winners over 7/4 and a lower number under 7/4.

When exactly this will take place is anyone’s guess (unless you have the ability to predict the future) so we must be patient to wait it out until it does.

As one punting pro put it to me lately – it’s not the timing of when you start betting, but your time in betting that matters most.

Because as long as you have a valid long-term method, you might be unlucky based on when you start and the early results but long-term it will all even out in your favour.

As long as you have the patience to STAY IN and ride out quirky stats like seen above.

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Why We Recommend Tipsters With Long-Term Records Only

We apply this long-term logic to the tipsters we review and recommend, preferring to judge tipsters over a deep set of stats, rather than a few months here and there.

Any tipster can pick up a few winners by chance over a few weeks or even months, yet it’s only when they have a definitive edge long-term that we can rely on them to make us money.

It’s why the average length of time a SBC Hall of Fame rated tipster has been going for is over 4 years, because these are the tipsters that have proven themselves profitable long-term.

After all, were we to judge a tipster over a shorter period of time, we might find ourselves recommending tipsters who have an edge simple due to luck, rather than skill.

A football tipster that made a profit by backing away teams under 7/4 last season would be a prime example. Do they have a real edge or were they just lucky given the higher than average proportion of winners at these odds last season? Ultimately, only time will really tell on that front.

So, if you are after long-term, sensible advice on the best tipsters with proven records making money betting, do consider a Smart Betting Club membership.

You can get started instantly with a 90 day anytime money back guarantee to boot.

Sign-up To The Smart Betting Club

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Owner/Founder

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Parts 1 to 5 Essential Football Compendium 2017/18 Season Now Available

The 5th and final part of SBC’s 2017/18 Essential Football Betting Compendium is now available – our exclusive review of the Football Tipping Expert profitable across all 4 major English leagues.

With a record of 1047 points profit as generated from 2700 bets across the past 5 seasons in the Premier League, Championship, League 1 and League 2 – this expert has really grabbed our attention.

Our review explores the profits made by this service, including a look at some intriguing compound staking options and details on the exclusive subscription options for SBC members interested in joining.

You can read this review and the other 4 parts of our new football season guide the instant you join the Smart Betting Club.

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Also – Grab Parts 1, 2, 3 & 4 Of Our New Football Season Compendium

Alongside instant access to this English Tipster Review (Part 5), you can also access Parts 1, 2, 3 & 4 of our 2017/18 Essential Football Compendium the instant you join the Smart Betting Club.

Part 1 is our Sports Tipster Report which features updates on 24 of the best sports betting experts we continually monitor. Including details on the new Hall of Fame Tennis tipster hitting a 10.5% ROI from 1480 tips AND the Baseball expert averaging 133% betting bank growth each year.

Part 2 is our 17/18 Football Tipster Guide, which features our take on 12 of the very best football tipsters we monitor with updated ratings, rankings and recommendations for the new season. You can also read detailed interviews with several of the expert tipsters included on their strategies for the coming season and how best to maximise their advice.

Part 3 is our in-depth review of The Football Guru service from the Betting Gods tipster network. We examine their pre-match and in-play tips from this popular expert to gauge exactly how their performance stacks up. For those interested in the service, there is also a free 60 day trial available.

Part 4 is our Exchange & Bet Broker Guide, providing the rundown on 4 of the best firms to bet with both this coming season and for other sports such as Horse Racing, Golf & Tennis. It also includes an interview with each of the firms on what they offer, the advantages of using them and who they are suitable for. A must-read if you want to get better value odds!

Join SBC Risk-Free Now (90 Day Money Back Guarantee)

You can gain full access to the 5-part Essential Football Compendium the instant you sign-up as a Smart Betting Club member.

What’s more, you can also now join with the full peace of mind provided by our full 90-day make money guarantee.

Sign-up for either a Gold or Platinum membership and if you don’t like what you see, you can get your money back at any time during your first 90 days as a member.

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If you sign-up and don’t like what we offer for any reason, email us and we will process a full refund. It’s that simple.

Best of all if joining the Smart Betting Club today you can also save up to a whopping £38 on the usual cost of membership.

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We know we can make a difference to your punting – so why not sign-up right away and get started immediately.

See you on the inside.

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor


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Under The Microscope: 2017/18’s Best Football Tipsters

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The new season is nearly upon us and to help you find the best football tipster(s), you must check out our fantastic new 2017/18 Season Football Tipster Guide!

Inside it features our take on 12 of the very best football tipsters we monitor with updated ratings, rankings and recommendations for the new season.

You can also read detailed interviews with several of the expert tipsters included on their strategies for the coming season and how best to maximise their advice.

Sign-up now to gain instant access (and the entire SBC back catalogue)

The 2017/18 Season Football Tipster Guide

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Significant SBC Member Discounts

Inside the 2017/18 Season Football Tipster Guide you can also read details on several significant discounts available on the cost of these tipsters – exclusively available to SBC members.

You can often save more than the cost of a Smart Betting Club membership with many of these discounts combined!

The discounts include:

  • 15% discount on a top rated South American tipster
  • 10% discount worth £34.90 on a major football league tipster
  • Up to £40 off the cost of one of the most popular system based tipsters
  • A 25% discount on the cost of the Matchday Profits service (worth £31.75)
  • £100 off the cost of a season with a well liked Scottish football expert
  • 60 Euros discount on the cost of a season with a non-league football guru

Full details on these savings (and many others) are available to you with access to the Smart Betting Club website.

Subscribe now to take full advantage and save!

Team Up With These 2 Other SBC Reports

An an SBC member you can also access two other reports to help provide you with the most comprehensive guide to the best tipsters: The latest Sports Tipster Profit Report AND Horse Racing Tipster Profit Report.

The Sports Tipster Report was released last week and features updates on 24 of the best sports betting experts we continually monitor. Including details on the new Hall of Fame Tennis tipster hitting a 10.5% ROI from 1480 tips AND the Baseball expert averaging 133% betting bank growth each year.

Secondly, our latest Horse Racing Tipster Profit Report was released in June and provides the complete rundown on the best 34 racing tipsters for you to follow. Including the on-fire racing expert averaging 6X betting bank growth annually AND the free tipster up £2713 since June 2016.

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 Gain Instant Access & Save Up To £38 On An SBC Membership!

If you want to know about the best football tipsters (Plus horse racing, tennis, golf, nba, nlf and darts) then why not subscribe to the Smart Betting Club today and gain instant access to all these reports and more!

Best of all if joining the Smart Betting Club today you can also save up to a whopping £38 on the usual cost of membership.

This is because we have slashed the price of joining to ensure as many people as possible have access to our reports, magazines and guides.

We know we can make a difference to your punting – so why not sign-up right away and get started immediately. (There is a 90-day money back guarantee available after all!)

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

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