For anyone wanting to make a profit betting, I have long extolled the virtues of developing your own expertise in a niche area – be it a niche sport, league or betting market.
The logic behind this is strong as bookmakers have a very limited resource pool in terms of the number of odds compilers they employ, making it impossible for them to be experts in every betting field.
In fact many bookies these days simply base their prices on those listed at Betfair or by using set formula to form their odds – effectively seeing them operate blind with no knowledge of any of the intricacies of each betting market.
So if you know a decent amount about a sport or niche market – you could be sitting on a potential betting goldmine to beat the bookies with.
There is perhaps no better example of this than with the non-league expert tipster Skeeve, who has made a profit betting since 2006 in his chosen leagues.
A shrewder, more experienced ‘niche bettor’ you will struggle to find and for the first time in this article, he has shared 5 of his very best, expert football betting tips for those of you keen to make money on non-league football
Skeeve’s 5 Expert Non-League Football Betting Tips
1) Pick a league. No, not eight leagues – if you have a busy lifestyle, a league or two are more than enough. You’ll have to know the language of course – if you’re trying to focus on the Scottish 2nd Division and you only speak German, well, I won’t be subscribing to your service, thank you very much.
2) Don’t take your eyes off the stats. I use the statto.com website and that, combined with my own excel sheets, is pretty much everything I need as far as stats are concerned. When you’re looking at the stats for a team that’s playing away from home, you don’t just look at their overall away form or at their away form in the last six games.
Look at their results away at struggling teams or away at top ten teams. Look at their midweek games only or their Saturday games only. Look at the games they played in heavy rain and in a strong wind. Look at the games they were forced to play without their key midfielder. As I said, every little thing is the most important thing.
3) Don’t think online editions of local papers are useless. That’s where you find out who’s still injured, who’s returned to training and who’s been made available for a loan. That’s where you read a pre-match interview with the manager and a post-match interview with the skipper. That’s where you notice the game might not go ahead at all because of the torrential rain in that part of England.
4) Don’t ignore the fans’ forums. That’s where you hear the latest rumours. That’s where you read about fans’ mood. That’s where you find out how much longer is their centre-half going to be out with a nasty injury. That’s where you feel stupid for being a researcher and not a fan. Getting ahead of the bookies on team news is extremely important, especially in the lower leagues. I think I can identify key players well enough and I always laugh when I notice the BBC forget about a couple of suspensions or don’t mention the new signings, stuff like that. That’s why official websites, online editions of local papers and fans’ forums are very important
5) Take a look at all match highlights you can find. It’s one thing to read the match reports written from two different perspectives, but when you see the actual ten-minute highlights, it’s almost like seeing all characters from your novel come to life at the same time. There’s plenty of match highlights available on the internet and, if you’re keeping an eye on fans’ forums, local papers and official websites, you’ll know where to find what you’re looking for.
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- Part Five: Being Realistic – Tipsters or Systems? How to decide what suits you best
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Smart Betting Club Editor