Why some racing tipsters quote misleading odds & how to avoid being duped


One of the most important issues facing many racing tipsters these days is that of odds availability.

Can you as a punter realistically obtain the odds that a tipster puts forward?

For some popular or free tipsters like Hugh Taylor and Pricewise it’s always been an issue as the weight of money behind their tips forces the odds in very quickly indeed.

Yet it is also now a growing issue for other less well-known tipsters too – especially horse racing experts that put up bets the night before a race runs.

Because whilst it might make sense to follow a tipster snapping up the earliest value – in reality, it can cause you all kinds of problems.

Allow me to explain more, including why some unscrupulous tipsters are taking advantage and catching unwary punters out

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The Evolution Of Racing Bookmaking

To help explain the current issue with taking early odds, it’s worth a quick walk down memory lane to understand how betting on racing historically worked.

Back in the good old days, most major bookmakers employed large teams of racing traders who would price up each race meeting and manage a traditional racing book.

As money flowed in a market, the odds for each horse would change as each firm managed their liability and tried to work an overall profitable position.

Occasionally, some bookmakers would find themselves getting filled in and taking a hit if getting it wrong, yet their in-built over-round always ensured that long-term, they would usually make a profit.

With the introduction of betting exchanges, all of this changed.

Nowadays, large-scale racing trading teams are a thing of the past, with almost all bookmakers basing their odds on what happens on Betfair.

If money comes in for a horse on Betfair – the bookie slashes its prices to reflect that. The opposite rings true on horses that drift in price although generally bookies are much slower to put their odds up than down!

Ultimately, the art of building a racing book has been lost.

And this in turn has impacted how we as punters get on and how the markets react to shrewd money.

Why Odds Are Odd When Betting Early

This sea change in the world of racing bookmaking has had a major knock-on effect for those punters keen to bet early – especially in your bog-standard racing fare.

For most horse races these days, you can expect to see the first odds start to appear around 4 to 5pm the day before racing is due to take place.

As the evening wears on, a few more firms will start to quote odds until there are a handful of bookmakers pricing up each horse in a race.

The problem is these prices are based on a very small amount of trading seen on Betfair – which is usually not much money at all.

And without a decent Betfair market to guide them and very little ‘racing expertise’, the bookies know they are vulnerable to shrewd punters who try and snap up the value odds on any overpriced horses at this point.

Therefore, even moderate sums of money coming in for a horse (especially at big odds) will see its price collapse in no time and the accounts of those placing such bets eyed with suspicion.

The Accountant


Tipsters & Their Quoted Prices

It is this issue of slashing odds that causes such a problem for tipsters who post up bets the evening before racing.

The general logic is that the earlier a tipster puts up a tip, the greater chance its odds will move downwards*

*Although it’s important to make the distinction here that betting in the major race meetings such as Cheltenham or on the big Saturday/Sunday featured races won’t see the same level of movement.

For those tipsters with a large subscriber base, there is zero chance the quoted odds will hold up.

It’s all too common to see a price of 20/1 quoted by a tipster, yet within minutes it’s a best 16/1 or 14/1. Come the morning of the race its 10/1 and it starts at 8/1 SP.

Considering betting profitably is all about value, even a change from 20/1 to 16/1 can and does make a major difference to your bottom line.

Taking 8/1 or 10/1 on a 20/1 shot isn’t worth thinking about neither – and by doing so you are actually more likely to turn a loss then a profit.

A 26% Drop In ROI After Just 15 Minutes!

Yet despite these clear issues with early tips – some unscrupulous tipsters continue to wilfully take advantage and claim what might be termed ‘fictional odds’ for their advised bets.

A clear example of this came from one racing tipster we reviewed here at SBC in 2017 who claimed a ROI of 46.6% from 880 bets over a 14-month period.

A 46.6% ROI on the face of it is phenomenal – far and away the best ROI we would have ever seen from any tipster over a long-term period.

The problem was – yep, you guessed it. This tipster was putting up bets at 5/6pm the evening before racing that disappeared almost as quickly as he put them up. I know this because as part of the SBC review, my team tracked the odds movement for 135 of these tips, which revealed some significant differences.

These 135 tips in isolation fared well, hitting a 70.6% ROI during a purple patch for the service, yet within 15 minutes of the tip being advised, the overall ROI dropped as much as 24.6%

By 8am on race day, the difference was -60.2% ROI and by 10.30am, it was -67.5% ROI!

The average odds also went from 12.48/1 down to 10.88/1 within 15 minutes – suggesting the odds on his tips were slashed very quickly indeed. You can see the full findings below:


So, whilst the odds this tipster quoted were indeed accurate at the time advised, practically no-one would be able to get on more than a few quid before the prices were slashed. Even if you did get on – most bookies would take one look at your betting history and quickly restrict or close your account.

You would be a marked man, because if there is one thing that will get a bookies attention it is constantly backing a horse that drops significantly in price after you get on.

Odds Tracking Is A Must For Any Racing Review

This story outlines very neatly exactly why every genuine tipster review MUST feature an element of odds-tracking.

We perform this as standard for every major tipster we review and whilst it is hard-work and time-consuming, it is hugely valuable.

We track not only performance to the quoted odds, but the best odds after 15 minutes, 60 minutes, at 10.30am, SP, Betfair SP and other relevant time periods.

By doing so we can quickly identify those tipsters putting up genuine odds and inform you as to how achievable the odds are (or not).

The tipster I reference above received a poor SBC rating following their review due to the very obvious odds availability issues. He certainly had an eye for a horse, but its highly unlikely many punters would be able to follow and obtain the same level of performance.

Instead of claiming a 46.6% ROI from these odds, he would have been far better aiming for a realistic 15% ROI by putting up bets at 10.30am when most punters could get on.

The good news is that there are numerous tipsters that we rate and recommend here at SBC who do play fair by the odds they quote for subscribers.

They might not be able to claim a 46.6% ROI, but at least you know what they do offer is realistic and fair.

Many of them can be found within our Hall of Fame listings and reviews, which you can obtain full details on with a Smart Betting Club membership.

Whatever you do though, be very wary of any tipster quoting results based on tips sent the day before racing. Very often you simply can’t match their results in practice!

P.s. If ever in doubt as to whether a tipster puts up genuine odds – be sure to ask them exactly when they put up their tips and how they settle their results. If they are putting them up the evening before racing and making no adjustments for odds movement, I would advise you to give them a miss!

Join the Smart Betting Club now and see what all the fuss is about!

See you on the inside

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor


How to follow this exchange-friendly profitable laying tipster free with SBC (but be quick!)

Following on from my essential lay betting advice email on Friday, there has been a LOT of interest in SBC’s very own FREE laying tipster – ‘The Accountant due to the profits being racked up from his easy-to-follow betting exchange tips.

The Accountant’s laying tips have made a profit of £2,248.94 since August 2017 over the course of almost 850 place lays. Each of which has been supplied free of charge to Smart Betting Club members and all results settled at Betfair SP minus 5% commission.

(A place lay is simply whereby you lay a horse not to finish in the place money – usually the first 2, 3 or 4 of any given race)

As you can imagine, demand is proving high for his expertise, especially given how easy it is to follow his profitable method at Betfair, or indeed on any of the other exchanges.

Which is why I have negotiated a deal with The Accountant whereby he has agreed to provide all of his advice for free until at least the end of May 2018.

All you need to access these free tips is a Smart Betting Club membership with full details on how to follow his advice via email supplied to all within the SBC service.

This is a really good deal, especially when you consider he has already been providing his tips for free via email to SBC members since August 2017.

Beyond May 2018, there is every likelihood that he will look to charge a fee for his advice. Although he was at pains to make clear that anyone following him prior to becoming a paid service would be given priority to join what he plans to be a very exclusive and limited number service.

The Accountant’s Profits Laid Bare

For those of you keen to know more on the profits he has generated – here is the lowdown on what has been achieved thus far.

The Accountant recommends 2 different staking plans you can choose from when following his place laying service as follows:

  1. The first staking plan is to risk a fixed £100 sum on each lay regardless of price.
    So if laying a horse at 2/1, you would stake £50 for a total max loss of £100 (£50 X 2/1). If it were 4/1, you would risk £25 and so on.
    This fixed approach has generated a profit of £4,326.30 from £80400 staked.
  2. The second (and our recommended method) is to risk 3% of your bank as the total liability on each lay. 
    So if your betting bank is £1000, you would risk £30 (3%) on the max loss from the lay. You would then recalcuate what 3% of your bank is each day.
    This 3% approach has generated a profit of £2248.94 and all from a starting bank of £1000. (You can obviously start from smaller or larger betting banks than £1000 as per your preferences – we use this simply for illustrative purposes

How To Follow The Accountant FREE With SBC

The Accountant is one of several tipsters who provide their advice free of charge to Smart Betting Club members. These free tipsters are often ideal to help get you started or to build up your betting profits without breaking the bank.

Other free tipsters include the long-term profitable racing experts, The Rooster and Racing UK’s Tipstar competition winner, Chris Baker. Read more about all 3 free SBC tipsters.

Tips from The Accountant, Chris & The Rooster are supplied both via email and also through access to the SBC members-only tipping forum.

Full details on how to access them are provided to all Smart Betting Club members.

So if you want to get started following these ready-made tipping experts for free – why not subscribe to SBC today and get going immediately.

See you on the inside

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

Lay Betting: How to do it right – some essential punting advice

Ever since the arrival of Betfair back in 1999, punters like you and me have finally been able to act like bookmakers and try our hand at making money from laying bets.

However, the reality is that laying can be a very difficult game indeed (as many a wound-up bookie will attest) and it’s crucial you fully understand how laying works prior to getting heavily involved.

And with a rise in the number of people and tipsters I see laying these days, I wanted to pen a few key pointers to help shed some light on the subject.

Because whilst laying can offer a profitable angle when done right, it can also be a nightmare if done wrong or without an understanding of the risks involved.

Here then are a few essential points from me to consider when laying….

Why laying a 3/1 shot is like backing a 1/3 shot

Most people wouldn’t back too many short bets at odds like 1/3, yet that is exactly what you are doing if laying a bet at 3/1.

Because when you place a lay at 3/1, you are risking 3 units to win 1.

It’s the same as if you were backing a bet at 1/3 as you would need to risk 3 units to win 1. Many new layers are not aware of this fact, especially if laying at larger odds, yet it’s a crucial point.

Would you back a 1/10 shot or 1/20 shot as readily as you might place a lay at 10/1 or 20/1?

Probably not, which leads me onto my next point…

Know what your worst-case scenario laying is

When laying you must always be mindful of the worst-case scenarios that can occur – even if you are hitting a high strike-rate of successful lays.

After all, losing lays can and will happen to even the best punters out there.

To give a real-life example – one profitable football laying tipster we work with here at SBC has an 83% strike-rate laying teams up to a max price of 9/1.

The average lay price comes in at a shade over 4/1, yet even with this high strike-rate and low average odds you still need to be prepared for worst case scenarios.

One easy way to calculate this for yourself is to use a table like the ‘Don’t Go Broke’ one from the excellent CD Systems website. This valuable table tells you how many losers on the trot you can realistically expect given a particular strike-rate (You need to register your email to view the content, but it’s worth it)

From this table we learn that even with an 83% strike-rate, we can expect over a series of 600 to 650 bets the following sequences:

  • A 75% chance of 3 losers on the bounce
  • A 50% chance of 4 losers on the bounce
  • A 25% chance of 5 losers on the bounce
  • A less than 1% chance of 7 losers on the bounce

So, assuming we are laying at average odds of 4/1, here is what we can expect:

  • A 75% chance of 3 losers at 4/1 on the bounce: -12 units
  • A 50% chance of 4 losers at 4/1 on the bounce: -16 units
  • A 25% chance of 5 losers at 4/1 on the bounce: -20 units
  • A less than 1% chance of 7 losers at 4/1 on the bounce: -28 units

If you don’t have a betting bank setup to expect a loss of AT LEAST 28 units then you run the risk of going broke at some point or being in for a nasty surprise.

Ideally your betting bank should be a lot bigger than this, especially if your losers are at bigger prices than 4/1. What if you get a series of losers at 9/1? It’s unlikely but then the whole point is that these things do happen (FYI – the recommendation is for a betting bank between 150 and 200 units for this service).

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No betting strategy is fool proof

Now you might say to yourself – ‘Oh my laying strategy is fool-proof, I will not get caught out’ – yet you will be wrong to do so.

For example when football betting, you are only one red-card, bad team performance or mad refereeing decision away from an unlikely result.

How many of you had West Brom to beat Man United or Roma to knock out Barcelona recently?

The truth is the best punters don’t have some silver-bullet, never lose betting strategy. Far from it. They lose just like all of us do.

They simply know how to handle losing in the context of a betting bank and the type of strategy they are utilising.

Consider fixed-loss staking to reduce your exposure

One option for you to reduce the risk when laying is to consider using a fixed loss staking strategy.

So rather than place a £100 lay on a bet regardless of the odds – instead you place a lay to lose a maximum amount of £100 should the bet go south.

To give a real-life example, one laying horse racing tipster we work with here at SBC advises a series of lays each day up to a maximum price of 15.0 Betfair SP (14/1)

Now the average lay price stands at just under 5.0 so it’s not often you lay at large prices like 15.0 but to reduce the risk of a big loss, he suggests you cap losses at a max 3% of your bank.

At the start of the day you simply work out what 3% of your betting bank looks like.

So, if starting with a £1000 bank, this would be £30.

If laying one of his tips at odds of 2.27 for example, you would risk losing £30 as a maximum as follows:

  • If the layed horse goes onto lose (you win) then you would be up £23.60 before commission (this is £30 / 1.27)
  • If the layed horse goes onto win (you lose) then you would be down £30

Where it comes into its own though is when you lay at larger odds, say at 5.52 (another recent example). Here are the scenarios:

  • If the layed horse goes onto lose (you win) then you would be up £6.71 before commission (this is £30 / 4.52)
  • If the layed horse goes onto win (you lose) then you would be down £30

Your winnings are capped with this staking plan but equally and more importantly, your losses are too.

It’s also very easy to place bets like this at Betfair SP – you simply place a lay on the horse and set your liability (max loss). You can also set the maximum price you will take – the rest will be calculated for you.

The horse racing tipster in question has used this 3% risk method to great success since August last year, growing his bank from £1000 to £3432.99 through it. For more on his method and how you can currently follow free with SBC, read about The Accountant Laying System on this free tips page.

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Be a Bookmaker or Exchange-Tart

If laying at Betfair SP, then naturally you are restricted to using Betfair, yet for those of you placing lays in other markets, I want to encourage you to look at alternative firms.

Just like people who chop and change credit cards are ‘rate-tarts’, I want to encourage you to be a bookmaker-tart (or indeed exchange-tart)!

SmarketsMatchbook & Betdaq offer low commission alternatives to Betfair and the difference between Betfair’s 5% base-line rate and the 2% with Smarkets and Betdaq can be vast.

Take the aforementioned football laying tipster available to SBC members, who’s results we record at Betfair’s 5% commission rates as standard. During 2018 from 188 lays, it has made a 55.8 point profit at 8.4% ROI to this metric.

If you had placed each bet with Smarkets or Betdaq and enjoyed their 2% commission rates, this profit would have risen to 60.27 points profit at 9.0% ROI. An extra 4.47 points profit in your pocket, simply for using a different website to place your lays.

Forget brand or company loyalty when it comes to bookies – it can hurt your bottom-line. Simply use the best value exchange on offer. Be an exchange-tart.

For More Expert Advice…

I hope a few of the points I have raised in today’s article have provided some food for thought for those of you interested or involved with laying on a regular basis.

When done right then laying can be a fantastic angle, but when done badly, it can be very costly indeed. Don’t get caught out!

If you are after further advice and expertise with your betting, you might like to consider a Smart Betting Club membership. It comes with a 90-day-money-back-guarantee as standard and is at significantly reduced prices for 2018.

Join the Smart Betting Club now and see what all the fuss is about!

See you on the inside

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

Learn from the experts – The ‘How I Make Money Betting’ interviews

Today I am pleased to unveil the first in a series of SBC interviews with winning punters, cunningly titled the ‘How I Make Money Betting series.

Kick-started today with the publication of our interview with Andrew, AKA ‘The Value Bettor’ – one of the very finest horse racing brains out there (as judged by the phenomenal returns he has made tipping over the years), the goal with these interviews is to provide inspiration and guidance to you from the experts who are making their betting pay.

After all, profitable betting can be a tough and sometimes lonely profession, so the more insight we get, the better our chances of making it pay.

In this special interview, we delved into Andrew’s background and setup to provide valuable insight into one of the most respected and profitable racing experts – including how he identifies value betting opportunities, the resources he uses, race-reading, the psychology of a winner and much more besides.

Perfectly timed if you are looking for some inspiration to find a winner at Aintree this week or even just on racing in general as much of his insight applies across the board betting-wise.

The How We Make Money Betting Legacy Report

Alongside Andrew’s interview, I have also put together a special ‘Legacy’ How We Make Money Betting issue, featuring my interviews with 6 other gambling experts as previously published by us at SBC.

Featuring discussions with a wide-range of betting experts and punters who are successful across a variety of sports, it provides fascinating insight into the world of pro-punting including:

  • The UK’s top racing tipster on just how he has beaten the bookies since 2003;
  • The bookie insider on his journey to success betting on horse racing;
  • The award winning racing expert on his love of the sport and how he picks out value bets
  • The long-term professional on his love of bookie loopholes and niche angles’

How To Read These Interviews Right Away

The How I Make Money Betting Series of interviews (both Andrew’s and the Legacy report) are available for immediate download with a Platinum ‘Pro Punter’ SBC membership.

More ‘How I Make Money Betting’ interviews with other professional punting experts are also planned for release throughout the year and as long as you have a Platinum membership, you will be able to access all of this content.

As well as gaining access to the full Best Tipster Guide, a Platinum Smart Betting Club membership also grants you full access to our complete ‘Professional Punter’ package including:

  • 1 Year of SBC Magazines;
  • 1 Year of Tipster Profit Reports;
  • Complete access to the Best Tipster Guide (2016, 2017 & 2018 versions)
  • 1 Year of Bet Diary Pro Access;
  • Access to our 12-year Back Catalogue;
  • Access To The SBC Tipping Forum;
  • Gold Tipster Discounts & Trials;
  • Platinum Tipster Discounts & Trials;
  • Our Best Systems & Guides;
  • Full 90-Day Refund Guarantee!

All told – it’s quite the package with a huge amount of expertise and information available to you and all from a genuinely independent source.

Click here to get started right away.

See you on the inside

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor


You can’t make money backing favourites…Or can you?


“You can’t make money backing favourites”

…Or so goes the famous phrase favoured by many in the betting world on the notion that it’s only mugs who bet at short prices.

Yet the reality is that betting (like most things in life) is not quite so black and white and you can make money backing favourites…as long as you back the right ones…

The right favourites – such as those put forward by the ‘myth-busting’ racing tipster featured in SBC Magazine (Issue 104) who has made a fine profit backing short horses.

Our review of this tipster found that over the course of 1676 bets advised over 2 and a bit years, he had made a baseline profit of 5% Return on Investment (ROI).

For those who prefer to concentrate on Return on Capital (ROC) this equated to a figure of 140% over the same period.

To put that into easy to understand financial figures…

  • A £1000 starting betting bank would have grown to £2,400.
  • A £5000 starting betting bank would have grown to £12,000.
  • A £10000 starting betting bank would have grown to £24,000.


And best of all – solely from backing favourites.

Although it’s fair to point out that it’s not always the favourite he tips up, but sometimes also the second favourite – in general it’s selections 5/2 and below at the front of the market

Ultimately – the saying “You can’t make money backing favourites” should really read “You can’t make money backing bad value favourites” as therein lies the difference between making a profit or loss betting.

If you are taking 9/4 on a bet that should be 6/4, long-term you will make a profit. Just as you might taking 20/1 about a bet that should be 10/1.

So, the next time someone tells you that backing favourites is a mugs game…you know what to say!

Major Benefits Of Backing Favourites

There are also some very important additional benefits from backing favourites to be aware of – here are 4 of the most relevant:

1. It’s easy to improve profits with Best Odds Guaranteed offers

I used the word ‘baseline profits’ when discussing the tipster above as the reality is that you can easily improve the profit figures if you have access to the Best Odds Guarantee concession in your bookmaker account.

We equated the potential to improve your ROI by as much as 5.4% simply by using Best Odds Guarantee offers.

As many as 40% of all bets drifted after being advised by this tipster and were therefore subject to a better price if taking Best Odds Guaranteed.

2. Hit a high strike-rate – easier on you mentally

If you are one of those punters who struggle when facing a losing run, then a short priced tipster might be the right answer for you. After all – not everyone is cut out to handle low strike-rates, nor have the patience to wait for the winners to hit home.

This favourite-backing tipster has a high strike-rate of 43.1% from the 1676 bets with 723 winners and 953 losers during this period.

Ensuring in general, short losing runs and a regular supply of winners to put your mind at rest!

3. You can get on with the bookies – even if you win

Perhaps best of all, favourites are very easy to bet with the bookies as they know most punters backing them will be long-term losers.

Your betting account might show a fair profit but when they see its from backing horses at 5/2 and under – they will often assume that in time you will lose and you have been lucky thus far. Even if you are chucking £100, £200 (or more) on these tips to win.

Making backing short priced tips such as those advised by this tipster ideal for those of you worried about betting restrictions. It’s just a fact that if you are backing 2/1 winners instead of 20/1 winners, your betting account is much more likely to go un-restricted.

4. A genuine betting-exchange option

Even if you can no longer bet with bookmakers, this favourite tipster is very easy to follow on the betting exchanges.

Our analysis found that you can actually IMPROVE your profits by as much as 1.1% ROI by simply taking better odds available 15 minutes after the tips are advised.

At the time these tips are put forward (10am) there is also considerable money available to trade on all betting exchanges and we found no issues getting our bets matched on these favourites.

So, if you are limited to betting with exchanges like Betfair, Smarkets, Betdaq or Matchbook, it’s a very valid option for you.

Read All About It In SBC 104 

If you want to know more about this tipster and the profits he has made backing favourites you can read the detailed SBC review in SBC magazine – Issue 104.

Inside the review you can also find details on how you can save 25% on the cost of joining this tipster as an SBC member.

Join the Smart Betting Club now and see what all the fuss is about!

See you on the inside.

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

2 new profitable, betting-exchange friendly tipsters to check out in SBC 104 (both with 43% high strike-rates)


The Latest SBC Magazine (Issue 104) is out now and features reviews of 2 new profitable, betting exchange-friendly tipsters.

It includes the uniquely profitable Tennis System with a 5-year winning track record AND the favourite-backing Racing Tipster with 140% bank growth. Both tipsters are ideal for following on betting exchanges – ideal for those of you unable to bet with bookies.

Sign-up now to gain instant access to SBC 104 or read on for more details…


Inside The Latest SBC Magazine

Here is a brief rundown of what you can find in SBC 104:

  • Review 1: The Tennis Betting Expert
    Discover this unique tennis rating system with a clear edge in both the Men’s (ATP) and Women’s (WTA) tennis tournaments. Hitting a 43% strike-rate and with 5 years of profits behind it – this service is suitable for exchange-only punters and is run by a very well respected professional (he writes regularly for both Betfair & Pinnacle). PLUS you can SAVE £45 on a 3-month subscription as an SBC Member.
  • Review 2: The Favourite-Backing Myth Buster
    Blowing aside the myth you can’t make a profit backing favourites in horse racing, this expert has made 140% betting bank growth over 1600 bets at the front-end of the betting market. Also hitting a high 43% strike-rate, its another tipster you can follow with ease on the betting exchanges. PLUS you can Save 25% on the cost of subscription as an SBC Member.
  • Expert Guide: How To Bet on Tennis
    Interested in betting on Tennis but don’t know where to start? In this special guide, we explain everything about betting on the sport from the bookies to use, tournament & betting market structure, type of bets & much more besides. Ideal for those of you interested in following the Tennis Betting Expert featured in SBC 104.

How To Get Your Copy (& The Entire Back Catalogue)

You can access your own copy of SBC 104 and our entire back catalogue of magazines the instant you join the Smart Betting Club.

This includes every single tipster review we have ever written (there are literally hundreds available!) and all of the Hall of Fame Tipsters we recommend to make you money betting.

You can also enjoy significant discounts on the cost of joining many of these tipsters via our unique Tipster Discounts exclusively available to SBC members only!

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor