# Part 2: Odds Availability & How It Impacts Your Real-World Betting Profits

Last week in part 1 of my article on why odds availability is so important when judging a tipster, I discussed the help that odds tracking can bring when figuring out how much real world profit you can actually make.

Today, I want to take this a step further and showcase some of the easy comparison tables that put these odds tracking studies into the context of £££’s!

We do this at SBC via 2 different Profit Adjustment Tables – one for racing and one for other sports based tipsters, which compare just how the claimed profits by each tipster stand up after a minimum of 15 minutes have elapsed from the time a tip was advised.

Allow me to show an example of how each Profit Adjustment Table works from a positive perspective for 3 different sports tipsters.

Before we get into the examples, it’s important to be clear that we use something called Annualised Profit for comparison purposes. This is simply the average yearly profit you would make if using a £2000 betting bank to follow each tipster. You don’t need a £2000 figure to get started betting, it is simply a good measure to compare and contrast with. Don’t get hung up on the need for £2000!

To explain this table, in the original SBC review of Service 1, we found there to be an actual increase of 2% ROI when compared to the quoted odds settled by the tipster. In a nutshell – you could easily beat their claimed profits if betting within the first 15 minutes after they are advised.

Based on this 2% ROI jump – an projected Annualised Profit of £2,956 for Service 1 could well increase by as much as £771 to £3,726, simply by taking better odds.

It’s a similar story for Service 2, whereby the increase was found to be 2.5% – which would turn the Annualised Profit from £1958 to £2576. An increase of £618.

Service 3 is very interesting as whilst there was a 0.5% reduction in odds within 15 minutes, the difference is just £809 less. Taking the Annualised Profit from £12,766 to £11,957.

#### When Odds Are Odd

Where these Profit Adjustment Tables are equally vital is when they illustrate the changes on the negative side – i.e. tipsters who quote odds that get smashed in very quickly. Those tipsters who claim a profit you are unlikely to match in the real world.

I have copied 3 examples from the Horse Racing Profit Adjustment Tables below that show this in play below:

Starting off with Service 4, we noticed a swing of -4.5% ROI within 15 minutes of the bets being advised. That is reflected in the drop of £1020 if waiting 15 minutes to get your bets on, which takes the profit from £4216 to £3196. It isn’t the biggest move but still its enough to be of concern.

Service 5 raises this up a notch and the 10.82% change within 15 minutes is huge and represents a £2472 swing against you. This would take a profitable service on paper (£982) to a losing one (-£1490) in reality.

Finally, the biggest extreme we have found is Service 6, which continues to quote completely unrealistic odds. That takes a supposed profit of £2,688 down to a loss of £307 due to the 24.5% ROI swing!

The reason for this big swing is that this Service 6 is a racing tipster who continues to take very early, big prices in the racing market which get quickly hammered in. It is for that reason we do not currently recommend Service 6 to SBC members and won’t do so until they start quoting fairer odds.

#### Red-Flags That A Tipster Is Quoting Unrealistic Odds

In the 6 examples above you can see the two sides to the need for odds tracking – highlighting those tipsters quoting both fair and unfair prices.

Far too often I see too many tipster reviews and recommendations, which do not tackle this issue and simply look at the claimed profit level or ROI without giving it a second thought. It is a genuine problem and it upsets me no end as they are not being straight with you on the real world profit figures.

Whilst I can’t advise you on every tipster out there and how their prices stack up, you can read the odds tracking results for the majority of the 60 tipsters included in each Tipster Profit Report and in every SBC review now published.

Yet for those of you concerned about this area – here are a few ‘red-flags’ that a tipster might be quoting unfair odds:

• They are regularly backing already well supported bets. Effectively they are highlighting ‘steamers’ or those shorter in price on the exchanges than with bookmakers and hoping to jump on the back of a move in price.
• Racing tipsters who put up bets the night or evening before the race itself takes place. There is very little trading money around at this time and you often see huge moves downwards for even the slightest amount of support for a horse.
• Tipsters in very niche markets where it takes not a lot of money to move the odds down. Bookies get spooked if you win large sums in sports or markets where they can’t lay off their liabilities.

This is by no means is that an exhaustive list and ultimately the only real way to get a handle on this is to track the odds and work the data. All of which we do in each review.

#### Want To See More?

Over the past 14 years, the SBC team have reviewed hundreds and hundreds of tipster services – with the very best and most profitable tipsters listed in the Hall of Fame and featured in our Betting Magazines.

We also report back on their ongoing form of each service in our Tipster Profit Reports.

Most importantly – our Hall of Fame listing section is based on those tipsters we feel make a clear edge in the real world. I.e. Not those quoting imaginary prices.

You will hear me say that phrase regularly ‘Real World Profits’ as we won’t recommend a tipster to you that we don’t feel can make a realistic return for you.

So, if you want to know and see more, including the fair tipsters with proven long-term records of making a profit, you will want to join us at the Smart Betting Club.

Sign-up today and get started on your profitable betting journey.

# The most important, yet overlooked fact when judging a tipster (part 1)

After 14 years working at the coalface of monitoring, tracking and reviewing tipsters, I like to think I have learnt a thing or two about what exactly a genuine, winning tipping service looks like.

Firstly, it needs to be profitable and showcase a winning record going back a decent amount of time. That is a given.

On top of that it needs to be well run, have a solid consistent strategy, send bets at reasonable times, use a workable staking plan and of course to be affordable after any subscription fees are deducted.

Speaking of which – I heard about one scam recently in the States where a guy was charging \$100 to get tips priced at odds of 1.08. The mind boggles!

Yet, one vitally important point that many people overlook – including all other ‘review’ websites (at least as far as I can tell) is the question of odds availability.

Can you match the odds a tipster quotes and settles at?

• If they quote 10/1 on a tip – how long does that 10/1 stay available for?
• Is it 9/1 in seconds and 8/1 within 5 minutes?
• OR does the 10/1 stay widely available for a while with even some 11/1 or 12/1 on offer elsewhere?

Because if you keep taking 8/1 when a tipster is claiming 10/1 – you need to know if that is an approach that will make or lose you money.

Understanding odds availability of a tipster is also critical in today’s age of bookmaker restrictions whereby if you consistently beat the market, you will find yourself closed down.

It doesn’t matter if your bets win or lose – simply the fact you are taking ‘sharp prices’ will see your account red flagged on a regular basis.

#### SBC’s Solution – Odds Tracking & Profit Adjustment Tables

To tackle this problem head on, in each SBC tipster review, you can also read the results of our detailed odds tracking study exploring the movement in odds.

This compares the average odds quoted by the tipster against:

• The best odds available if placing the bet immediately
• The best odds available if placing 15 minutes later
• The best odds available if placing at 10am
• The best odds available at kick-off (if a football tipster)
• The odds available at Betfair SP (if a racing tipster)

The goal with this analysis is to help identify the best and worst tipsters when it comes to odds movement.

Highlighting those you can follow in the real world and not just in theory.

#### A Recent Odds Tracking Example

Allow me to show exactly how this works by using an example from a recent SBC Magazine, where my team and I tracked the odds from a popular racing tipster, who put up tips each morning at 9am by email and SMS.

In total we tracked the odds movement from a random collection of 200 bets supplied.

As part of this tracking we compared the advised odds by the tipster against those available with a panel of bookmakers (Bet 365, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet Victor, Black Type, Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, SkyBet, Tote and William Hill) at the time received, after 15 mins and at 10am.The exercise also encompassed both Industry and Betfair SPs.

Below you can see the results with the important figures the ROI difference in the far right column, as this highlights the drop in ROI at the different time periods.

Please ignore the P/L figures and fact this service made a loss during this random collection of 200 bets. What is of most importance is the ROI difference!

A 4.09% ROI Boost Immediately Available!

From the above we can see that getting on as quickly as possible is advised with this tipster. If able to bet as soon as the tips are released, then with a fair set of viable bookmaker accounts you stand a chance of bettering the official ROI figures by 4.09% ROI. This clearly demonstrated to us that this tipster is putting up fair odds at the time of advice.

However, as time passes the quoted prices come under pressure as within 15 minutes there is a drop of -6.19% ROI against the advised prices. The average odds went from 13.71 to 12.22 – a major move and this is reflected by the drop in points profit. Instead of losing just 27.48 points, you would have lost 39.85 points.

Furthermore, if betting just an hour after release at 10am, the impact on ROI is significant at -13.5% ROI and you would be 27 points worse off.

The average odds at 10am are just 11.07, so they have gone from a little under 13/1 to a little over 10/1 in 60 minutes.

You will notice as well that at Betfair SP, the ROI difference bounces up to -4.18%, which is better than the -6.19% ROI after 15 minutes. This is despite the average odds rising up to 15.74 – better even the average odds available when the tips are advised. It hints at some potential following at Betfair SP.

#### Bet365 The Go-To Bookie

As part of our odds tracking study, we also provide details on which bookmaker accounts you need to maximise your time with each service.

In terms of the accounts needed to follow this tipster – Bet365 are essential with the Stoke-based bookmaker either offering top price or equal top price on just over half of the selections.

Paddy Power, Bet Victor & Betfair Sportsbook all were required for more than 40% of bets as well.

#### Look Out For Part 2 Next Week

Odds availability is a huge topic so look out for Part 2 of this article coming next week.

In this second article I will explore how to use ‘Profit Adjustment Tables’ to work out exactly how the odds movement study above impacts the real world money you might make with any tipster.

If you are after dedicated expert help on sourcing the best tipsters to make you a profit betting – then you might like to consider a Smart Betting Club membership.

From as little as £27.99 + VAT per quarter, you can get started immediately and access the ENTIRE Smart Betting Club service including all our Tipster Reviews, Tipster Profit Reports, Free Tipster Access, Pro Betting Guides & more.

Membership also includes access to our full 14 year back catalogue and no quibble money back guarantee if you join and don’t like what is on offer (unlikely!).

Sign-up today and get started on your profitable betting journey immediately!

# How to check if a tipsters quoted odds are fair and realistic

One of the most important questions facing those of you using racing tipsters these days is that of odds availability.

Specifically…Can you as a punter realistically obtain the odds that a tipster quotes?

For some of the most popular free tipsters like Hugh Taylor or Andy Holding it’s always been an issue as the weight of money behind their tips forces the odds in very quickly. The fact they both supply their tips for free means there are lots of punters trying to lump on their bets.

Odds movement is also now a growing issue for other less well-known tipsters too – especially horse racing experts that put up bets into early markets which are very price sensitive.

Whilst it might make sense to follow a tipster snapping up the earliest value – in reality, it can cause you all kinds of problems. From the fact you will be making less profit (and possibly losing so much value you might be in deficit by doing so) to being increasingly vulnerable to betting restrictions being applied to your bookmaker accounts.

In short, its a major issue and one you need to be acutely aware of if following a tipster.

#### The Evolution of Racing Bookmaking

To help explain the current issue with ‘early odds’, it’s worth a quick walk down memory lane to understand how betting on racing historically worked.

Back in the good old days, most major bookmakers employed large teams of racing traders who would price up each race meeting and manage a traditional racing book.

As money flowed in a market, the odds for each horse would change as each firm managed their liability and tried to work an overall profitable position.

Occasionally, some bookmakers would find themselves getting filled in and taking a hit if getting it wrong, yet their in-built over-round always ensured that long-term, they would usually make a profit with a modicum of skill.

With the introduction of betting exchanges, all of this changed.

Nowadays, large-scale racing trading teams are a thing of the past, with almost all bookmakers basing their odds on what happens on Betfair.

If money comes in for a horse on Betfair – the bookie slashes its prices to reflect that. The opposite rings true on horses that drift in price although generally bookies are much slower to put their odds up than down.

Ultimately, the art of building a racing book has been lost by all major firms. They simply track Betfair.

Which in turn has impacted how we as punters get on and how the markets react to shrewd money.

#### Why Odds Are Odd When Betting Early

This sea change in the world of racing bookmaking has had a major knock-on effect for those punters keen to bet early such as the night before or the early morning of racing.

For most horse races these days, you can expect to see the first odds start to appear around 4 to 5pm the day before racing is due to take place from a handful of bookies.

As the evening wears on, a few more firms will start to quote odds until there are a smattering of bookmakers pricing up each horse in a race.

This continues into the morning of racing and it is not until 10 to 1030am when the markets really start to form, with the vast majority of money actually only hitting the market around 10 minutes before a race actually starts.

The problem for us punters is that when taking ‘early’ prices prior to the market forming – these prices are based on a very small amount of Betfair trading – usually not much money at all.

A horse that is 10/1 at 9am, which suddenly sees a rush of support can send the bookies running for cover and be as short as 5/1 within 20 to 30 minutes.

This is because without a decent Betfair market to guide them at this time and with very little ‘racing expertise’, the bookies know they are vulnerable to shrewd punters who try and snap up the value odds on any overpriced horses at this point.

Therefore, even moderate sums of money coming in for a horse (especially at big odds) will see its price collapse in no time and the accounts of those placing such bets eyed with suspicion.

Want to red flag your account to a bookmaker as one for restriction? Simply place lots of bets on popular horses that quickly shorten in price and that usually does the trick.

Sometimes it matters not one jot if your bets go onto win. The simple act of regularly betting horses that shorten in price is enough to see many bookmakers limit your account.

#### 20/1 Advised into 8/1 SP…

It is this issue of slashing odds that causes such a problem for tipsters who post up bets into these early betting markets.

The general logic is that the earlier a tipster puts up a tip, the greater chance its odds will move downwards*

*Although it’s important to make the distinction here that betting in the major race meetings such as Cheltenham or on the big Saturday/Sunday featured races won’t see the same level of movement.

For those tipsters with a large subscriber base, there is zero chance the quoted odds will hold up.

It’s all too common to see a price of 20/1 quoted by a tipster, yet within minutes it’s a best 16/1 or 14/1. Come the morning of the race its 10/1 and it starts at 8/1 SP.

Considering betting profitably is all about value, even a change from 20/1 to 16/1 can and does make a major difference to your bottom line.

Taking 8/1 or 10/1 on a 20/1 shot isn’t worth thinking about neither – and by doing so you are actually more likely to turn a loss than a profit.

#### The Tipster With Rapid Odds Movement Issues

To give you an example of the type of movement I regularly see on this front, I wanted to share with you stats from some ongoing odds monitoring we are currently undertaking on a popular racing tipster.

I won’t name the tipster in question as this odds monitoring is still ongoing, but I have seen several very positive reviews of his service as published by several other ‘review’ sites already – yet none of them mention his odds movement, which I fear is a major oversight.

This racing tipster advises his tips either the night before racing (8-9pm) or early in the morning of racing (8.30-9am) and to gauge how his prices stand up, we are tracking and comparing the best odds across 3 different metrics as follows:

• The odds after 15 minutes have elapsed from the time the tip was sent
• The odds at 10am

Below you can see what the average odds look like in decimal format at each of these 3 metrics so far:

• The odds he advises: 13.96
• The odds after 15 minutes have elapsed from the time the tip was sent: 11.96
• The odds at 10am: 10.85

Exploring these stats further, you can quite clearly see a major drop in the average odds available from those advised and those available after 15 minutes. From 13.96 to 11.96 in 15 minutes is a significant move.

By 10am, these odds have dropped even further down to 10.85 and it has quickly become apparent that they are being extremely well supported.

In terms of profit differences, you would be -9.35% ROI worse off if taking the best price after 15 minutes and -21.78% ROI worse off at 10am.

There is no suggestion that the odds quoted by this tipster are not accurate at the time they send the tips (our tracking also gauges this) but clearly they are going to prove to be very difficult to obtain.

Even if you did get on within the first few minutes of the bets being advised – most bookies would take one look at your betting history and quickly restrict or close your account.

If there is one thing that will get a bookies attention it is constantly backing a horse that drops significantly in price after you get on.

#### Why Odds Tracking Is A Must In ANY Review

The above outlines very neatly exactly why every genuine tipster review MUST feature an element of odds-tracking.

We perform this as standard for every major tipster we review and whilst it is hard-work and time-consuming, it is hugely valuable.

By doing so we can quickly identify those tipsters putting up genuine odds and inform you as to how achievable the odds are (or not).

The tipster I reference above will be reviewed in a forthcoming SBC Magazine once we complete our detailed odds tracking, and as things stand it does seem odds availability is a major issue – something that will prevent us recommending them to our members.

And whilst other reviews published on this tipping service might skirt this issue – we will not as it’s a fundamental problem that needs to be addressed if they wish to be taken seriously as a service.

The good news is that there are several Hall of Fame rated tipsters, whom we rate and recommend here at SBC that do play fair by the odds they quote for subscribers.

If you are keen to find out more on who they are and how they can help you, then you can find more details within our Hall of Fame listings and reviews, which you can gain access to with a

Whatever you do though, be very wary of any tipster quoting results based on tips sent the day before racing. Very often you simply can’t match their results in practice!

P.s. If ever in doubt as to whether a tipster puts up genuine odds – be sure to ask them exactly when they put up their tips and how they settle their results. If they are putting them up the evening before racing and making no adjustments for odds movement, I would advise you to give them a miss!

Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club.

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

# Why some racing tipsters quote misleading odds & how to avoid being duped

One of the most important issues facing many racing tipsters these days is that of odds availability.

Can you as a punter realistically obtain the odds that a tipster puts forward?

For some popular or free tipsters like Hugh Taylor and Pricewise it’s always been an issue as the weight of money behind their tips forces the odds in very quickly indeed.

Yet it is also now a growing issue for other less well-known tipsters too – especially horse racing experts that put up bets the night before a race runs.

Because whilst it might make sense to follow a tipster snapping up the earliest value – in reality, it can cause you all kinds of problems.

Allow me to explain more, including why some unscrupulous tipsters are taking advantage and catching unwary punters out

#### The Evolution Of Racing Bookmaking

To help explain the current issue with taking early odds, it’s worth a quick walk down memory lane to understand how betting on racing historically worked.

Back in the good old days, most major bookmakers employed large teams of racing traders who would price up each race meeting and manage a traditional racing book.

As money flowed in a market, the odds for each horse would change as each firm managed their liability and tried to work an overall profitable position.

Occasionally, some bookmakers would find themselves getting filled in and taking a hit if getting it wrong, yet their in-built over-round always ensured that long-term, they would usually make a profit.

With the introduction of betting exchanges, all of this changed.

Nowadays, large-scale racing trading teams are a thing of the past, with almost all bookmakers basing their odds on what happens on Betfair.

If money comes in for a horse on Betfair – the bookie slashes its prices to reflect that. The opposite rings true on horses that drift in price although generally bookies are much slower to put their odds up than down!

Ultimately, the art of building a racing book has been lost.

And this in turn has impacted how we as punters get on and how the markets react to shrewd money.

#### Why Odds Are Odd When Betting Early

This sea change in the world of racing bookmaking has had a major knock-on effect for those punters keen to bet early – especially in your bog-standard racing fare.

For most horse races these days, you can expect to see the first odds start to appear around 4 to 5pm the day before racing is due to take place.

As the evening wears on, a few more firms will start to quote odds until there are a handful of bookmakers pricing up each horse in a race.

The problem is these prices are based on a very small amount of trading seen on Betfair – which is usually not much money at all.

And without a decent Betfair market to guide them and very little ‘racing expertise’, the bookies know they are vulnerable to shrewd punters who try and snap up the value odds on any overpriced horses at this point.

Therefore, even moderate sums of money coming in for a horse (especially at big odds) will see its price collapse in no time and the accounts of those placing such bets eyed with suspicion.

#### Tipsters & Their Quoted Prices

It is this issue of slashing odds that causes such a problem for tipsters who post up bets the evening before racing.

The general logic is that the earlier a tipster puts up a tip, the greater chance its odds will move downwards*

*Although it’s important to make the distinction here that betting in the major race meetings such as Cheltenham or on the big Saturday/Sunday featured races won’t see the same level of movement.

For those tipsters with a large subscriber base, there is zero chance the quoted odds will hold up.

It’s all too common to see a price of 20/1 quoted by a tipster, yet within minutes it’s a best 16/1 or 14/1. Come the morning of the race its 10/1 and it starts at 8/1 SP.

Considering betting profitably is all about value, even a change from 20/1 to 16/1 can and does make a major difference to your bottom line.

Taking 8/1 or 10/1 on a 20/1 shot isn’t worth thinking about neither – and by doing so you are actually more likely to turn a loss then a profit.

#### A 26% Drop In ROI After Just 15 Minutes!

Yet despite these clear issues with early tips – some unscrupulous tipsters continue to wilfully take advantage and claim what might be termed ‘fictional odds’ for their advised bets.

A clear example of this came from one racing tipster we reviewed here at SBC in 2017 who claimed a ROI of 46.6% from 880 bets over a 14-month period.

A 46.6% ROI on the face of it is phenomenal – far and away the best ROI we would have ever seen from any tipster over a long-term period.

The problem was – yep, you guessed it. This tipster was putting up bets at 5/6pm the evening before racing that disappeared almost as quickly as he put them up. I know this because as part of the SBC review, my team tracked the odds movement for 135 of these tips, which revealed some significant differences.

These 135 tips in isolation fared well, hitting a 70.6% ROI during a purple patch for the service, yet within 15 minutes of the tip being advised, the overall ROI dropped as much as 24.6%

By 8am on race day, the difference was -60.2% ROI and by 10.30am, it was -67.5% ROI!

The average odds also went from 12.48/1 down to 10.88/1 within 15 minutes – suggesting the odds on his tips were slashed very quickly indeed. You can see the full findings below:

So, whilst the odds this tipster quoted were indeed accurate at the time advised, practically no-one would be able to get on more than a few quid before the prices were slashed. Even if you did get on – most bookies would take one look at your betting history and quickly restrict or close your account.

You would be a marked man, because if there is one thing that will get a bookies attention it is constantly backing a horse that drops significantly in price after you get on.

#### Odds Tracking Is A Must For Any Racing Review

This story outlines very neatly exactly why every genuine tipster review MUST feature an element of odds-tracking.

We perform this as standard for every major tipster we review and whilst it is hard-work and time-consuming, it is hugely valuable.

We track not only performance to the quoted odds, but the best odds after 15 minutes, 60 minutes, at 10.30am, SP, Betfair SP and other relevant time periods.

By doing so we can quickly identify those tipsters putting up genuine odds and inform you as to how achievable the odds are (or not).

The tipster I reference above received a poor SBC rating following their review due to the very obvious odds availability issues. He certainly had an eye for a horse, but its highly unlikely many punters would be able to follow and obtain the same level of performance.

Instead of claiming a 46.6% ROI from these odds, he would have been far better aiming for a realistic 15% ROI by putting up bets at 10.30am when most punters could get on.

The good news is that there are numerous tipsters that we rate and recommend here at SBC who do play fair by the odds they quote for subscribers.

They might not be able to claim a 46.6% ROI, but at least you know what they do offer is realistic and fair.

Many of them can be found within our Hall of Fame listings and reviews, which you can obtain full details on with a Smart Betting Club membership.

Whatever you do though, be very wary of any tipster quoting results based on tips sent the day before racing. Very often you simply can’t match their results in practice!

P.s. If ever in doubt as to whether a tipster puts up genuine odds – be sure to ask them exactly when they put up their tips and how they settle their results. If they are putting them up the evening before racing and making no adjustments for odds movement, I would advise you to give them a miss!

Join the Smart Betting Club now and see what all the fuss is about!

See you on the inside

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor