I recently released the 2nd review from SBC’s 2018 Best Tipster Guide, focusing in great detail on one of the very best tipsters my review team and I have ever had the pleasure to examine.
But exactly what is it that the SBC review team (and therefore you) should look for in a tipster?
And what qualities does a tipster have for us to enter it into our Best Tipster Guide?
To help answer these questions, today I want to explore the anatomy of a profitable tipster with 5 KEY pointers for you to consider when weighing up whether a tipping service is for you or not.
To help, I will be using this latest Best Tipster Guide expert as a reference point and tackling topics like staking plans, profit levels, exchange backing, odds availability & much more besides…
Here then is my 5 point guide to finding a genuine tipping expert...
1) Long-term, consistent & realistic profit
Just like football managers, tipsters live and die based upon the results they achieve. If they don’t make a simple profit for you (over and above the cost of joining) then there really is no point to them.
Once there is a profit to view, then its also important that it is both relatively consistently achieved and realistic. You would be amazed at how many ‘profitable tipsters’ are nothing of the sort on this front.
For example – I recently explored a tipster with on the face of it a profitable record from over 800 bets, yet by digging into their results I found this record was massively skewed by a 200/1 winner. The profits from that 1 bet aside, the service had made a combined loss from the other 799 bets!
Contrasting with this, our Best Tipster Guide (BTG) expert has a consistent, long-term record with a profit from each season active. Some seasons higher, some lower but each profitable and an average seasonal profit of around 45 points.
This general consistency is further backed up by the profit graph below that is useful as we can see any spikes (like a 200/1 winner) that might suggest problems.
Beyond a small plateau between the 600 and 700 bet marker, its been generally smooth upward progress for our BTG expert.
2) A staking plan that works
When a tipster has a profitable strategy, one other simple way they can maximise this is through a staking plan.
The theory here is that you should stake more when there is greater perceived value from a tip and less when the opposite applies.
Once again our BTG expert ticks these boxes and by viewing their staking plan, we can see how the greater the amount staked, the greater the ROI.
For example, the smaller staked bets (0.25 points) return a 16.8% ROI, whereas the maximum staked bets (1.5 to 2 points) hit a 38.8% ROI.
Proof positive this expert knows where the value lies as the greater you stake, the greater your profit.
3) Odds you can actually get
In today’s modern betting world, we must also be aware of the issues we might suffer in trying to get our bets on.
Bookmakers shift prices very quickly at the smallest sign of shrewd money on a racing bet, especially those placed early away from the big race meetings.
Even if you do manage to obtain a good price for your bet, if it should win and especially if it shortens in price dramatically before the off, you run every chance of suffering a bookmaker account restriction or closure.
Which is why its important to follow a tipster that takes this into consideration. If they are putting up a 33/1 hot racing tip at 6pm the night before racing and not accounting for any price movement should the odds be slashed, its a problem.
Again though, our BTG expert leads the way here with a policy of only tipping in big races, when markets are already formed and when you are able to back them easily in shops.
He explains more on his fair policy here:
“Whenever I issue a tip now, it is my belief that it is possible for people to back it in bookmaker shops, should they choose to do so.
So, if I issue a tip the day before a race, it will be in races which are generally priced up at that time; whilst those tips issued in the morning, are only issued when shops are open and the horses can be backed within them.
I’ve actually got a few guys in the service who do exactly this (they have no online accounts) – and they achieve around 90% of the prices by backing in shops.
This also means that the prices of all the tips are relatively robust, because the markets have some maturity. Therefore, it should be possible to back the horses at (or close to) the price specified an hour or so later both with bookmakers and on exchanges.
My focus on big races, helps massively in this whole area, because they tend to be competitive fields, and therefore most of the horses get backed.”
4) Backable on the Exchanges
Leading on from this last point – if you are restricted or shut down by the bookies, then the best route open to you is that of betting exchanges.
Smarkets, Matchbook & Betdaq are all now improving, low commission alternatives to Betfair and offer a genuine route to punters unable to bet with bookies.
Exchanges allow you to win as much as you want and won’t shut you down. They welcome your business, even if you are a winner.
Best of all, our BTG expert is one you can follow on the exchanges with only a 2.6% ROI drop (after exchange commission) from the sample of data we gathered following them with Smarkets.
So rather than obtaining the 30.1% ROI as seen in my first point, you might instead make 2.6% less = 27.5% ROI. Still a very strong edge.
During the study, bets were generally placed between 9.30 and 10.15am, roughly 45 minutes to 1.5 hours after bet release.The sample size was decent – 508 bets and in short, the results demonstrated that backing these selections on big race days is viable on the Exchanges:
5) Affordable & easy to follow
Last but not least, there are some sensible things any good tipster will think about – namely the price and how and when they supply tips.
The price is right
The cost of any tipster should be reasonable and will allow you to make plenty of profit beyond it. The profit also should be within your reach to make a profit without staking at huge levels.
Our BTG expert charges just £250 for a full NH season and averages around 45 points profit each time out. Even a simple £50 per point strategy would see you make around 10X the cost of joining in an average season.
Time of bet supply
Its important to also have a clear understanding of how many bets are supplied by the tipster and when they are sent on.
If tips come through at random times with no warning then realistically how are you going to be setup to follow them properly? They might send them at 10pm one day and 10am the next. If you need to get on them quickly then you will often miss out on value altogether.
Again, the BTG expert ticks the boxes here as he uses three possible tipping windows: 17.00-18.00 the evening before racing, 8.30-9.30 am, and 11.00-12.00am.
You know therefore when to look out for possible bets and when exactly they might be heading your way.
Thanks For Reading..
Hopefully these 5 key points will help to guide you towards those genuinely profitable tipsters that can help you make money betting.
There are naturally more than just 5 points to consider for every tipster but the 5 above are some of the most important and where many punters are unwittingly caught out.
Reviewing and tracking tipsters is what we do best here at the Smart Betting Club – having been at the heart of the industry since 2006.
More details on the Best Tipster Guide can also be found here.
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See you on the inside.
Smart Betting Club Editor