# Part 2: Odds Availability & How It Impacts Your Real-World Betting Profits

Last week in part 1 of my article on why odds availability is so important when judging a tipster, I discussed the help that odds tracking can bring when figuring out how much real world profit you can actually make.

Today, I want to take this a step further and showcase some of the easy comparison tables that put these odds tracking studies into the context of £££’s!

We do this at SBC via 2 different Profit Adjustment Tables – one for racing and one for other sports based tipsters, which compare just how the claimed profits by each tipster stand up after a minimum of 15 minutes have elapsed from the time a tip was advised.

Allow me to show an example of how each Profit Adjustment Table works from a positive perspective for 3 different sports tipsters.

Before we get into the examples, it’s important to be clear that we use something called Annualised Profit for comparison purposes. This is simply the average yearly profit you would make if using a £2000 betting bank to follow each tipster. You don’t need a £2000 figure to get started betting, it is simply a good measure to compare and contrast with. Don’t get hung up on the need for £2000!

To explain this table, in the original SBC review of Service 1, we found there to be an actual increase of 2% ROI when compared to the quoted odds settled by the tipster. In a nutshell – you could easily beat their claimed profits if betting within the first 15 minutes after they are advised.

Based on this 2% ROI jump – an projected Annualised Profit of £2,956 for Service 1 could well increase by as much as £771 to £3,726, simply by taking better odds.

It’s a similar story for Service 2, whereby the increase was found to be 2.5% – which would turn the Annualised Profit from £1958 to £2576. An increase of £618.

Service 3 is very interesting as whilst there was a 0.5% reduction in odds within 15 minutes, the difference is just £809 less. Taking the Annualised Profit from £12,766 to £11,957.

#### When Odds Are Odd

Where these Profit Adjustment Tables are equally vital is when they illustrate the changes on the negative side – i.e. tipsters who quote odds that get smashed in very quickly. Those tipsters who claim a profit you are unlikely to match in the real world.

I have copied 3 examples from the Horse Racing Profit Adjustment Tables below that show this in play below:

Starting off with Service 4, we noticed a swing of -4.5% ROI within 15 minutes of the bets being advised. That is reflected in the drop of £1020 if waiting 15 minutes to get your bets on, which takes the profit from £4216 to £3196. It isn’t the biggest move but still its enough to be of concern.

Service 5 raises this up a notch and the 10.82% change within 15 minutes is huge and represents a £2472 swing against you. This would take a profitable service on paper (£982) to a losing one (-£1490) in reality.

Finally, the biggest extreme we have found is Service 6, which continues to quote completely unrealistic odds. That takes a supposed profit of £2,688 down to a loss of £307 due to the 24.5% ROI swing!

The reason for this big swing is that this Service 6 is a racing tipster who continues to take very early, big prices in the racing market which get quickly hammered in. It is for that reason we do not currently recommend Service 6 to SBC members and won’t do so until they start quoting fairer odds.

#### Red-Flags That A Tipster Is Quoting Unrealistic Odds

In the 6 examples above you can see the two sides to the need for odds tracking – highlighting those tipsters quoting both fair and unfair prices.

Far too often I see too many tipster reviews and recommendations, which do not tackle this issue and simply look at the claimed profit level or ROI without giving it a second thought. It is a genuine problem and it upsets me no end as they are not being straight with you on the real world profit figures.

Whilst I can’t advise you on every tipster out there and how their prices stack up, you can read the odds tracking results for the majority of the 60 tipsters included in each Tipster Profit Report and in every SBC review now published.

Yet for those of you concerned about this area – here are a few ‘red-flags’ that a tipster might be quoting unfair odds:

• They are regularly backing already well supported bets. Effectively they are highlighting ‘steamers’ or those shorter in price on the exchanges than with bookmakers and hoping to jump on the back of a move in price.
• Racing tipsters who put up bets the night or evening before the race itself takes place. There is very little trading money around at this time and you often see huge moves downwards for even the slightest amount of support for a horse.
• Tipsters in very niche markets where it takes not a lot of money to move the odds down. Bookies get spooked if you win large sums in sports or markets where they can’t lay off their liabilities.

This is by no means is that an exhaustive list and ultimately the only real way to get a handle on this is to track the odds and work the data. All of which we do in each review.

#### Want To See More?

Over the past 14 years, the SBC team have reviewed hundreds and hundreds of tipster services – with the very best and most profitable tipsters listed in the Hall of Fame and featured in our Betting Magazines.

We also report back on their ongoing form of each service in our Tipster Profit Reports.

Most importantly – our Hall of Fame listing section is based on those tipsters we feel make a clear edge in the real world. I.e. Not those quoting imaginary prices.

You will hear me say that phrase regularly ‘Real World Profits’ as we won’t recommend a tipster to you that we don’t feel can make a realistic return for you.

So, if you want to know and see more, including the fair tipsters with proven long-term records of making a profit, you will want to join us at the Smart Betting Club.

Sign-up today and get started on your profitable betting journey.

# Anatomy of a profitable tipster: 5 KEY pointers to find a genuine tipping expert

I recently released the 2nd review from SBC’s 2018 Best Tipster Guide, focusing in great detail on one of the very best tipsters my review team and I have ever had the pleasure to examine.

But exactly what is it that the SBC review team (and therefore you) should look for in a tipster?

And what qualities does a tipster have for us to enter it into our Best Tipster Guide?

To help answer these questions, today I want to explore the anatomy of a profitable tipster with 5 KEY pointers for you to consider when weighing up whether a tipping service is for you or not.

To help, I will be using this latest Best Tipster Guide expert as a reference point and tackling topics like staking plans, profit levels, exchange backing, odds availability & much more besides…

Here then is my 5 point guide to finding a genuine tipping expert...

#### 1) Long-term, consistent & realistic profit

Just like football managers, tipsters live and die based upon the results they achieve. If they don’t make a simple profit for you (over and above the cost of joining) then there really is no point to them.

Once there is a profit to view, then its also important that it is both relatively consistently achieved and realistic. You would be amazed at how many ‘profitable tipsters’ are nothing of the sort on this front.

For example – I recently explored a tipster with on the face of it a profitable record from over 800 bets, yet by digging into their results I found this record was massively skewed by a 200/1 winner. The profits from that 1 bet aside, the service had made a combined loss from the other 799 bets!

Contrasting with this, our Best Tipster Guide (BTG) expert has a consistent, long-term record with a profit from each season active. Some seasons higher, some lower but each profitable and an average seasonal profit of around 45 points.

This general consistency is further backed up by the profit graph below that is useful as we can see any spikes (like a 200/1 winner) that might suggest problems.

Beyond a small plateau between the 600 and 700 bet marker, its been generally smooth upward progress for our BTG expert.

#### 2) A staking plan that works

When a tipster has a profitable strategy, one other simple way they can maximise this is through a staking plan.

The theory here is that you should stake more when there is greater perceived value from a tip and less when the opposite applies.

Once again our BTG expert ticks these boxes and by viewing their staking plan, we can see how the greater the amount staked, the greater the ROI.

For example, the smaller staked bets (0.25 points) return a 16.8% ROI, whereas the maximum staked bets (1.5 to 2 points) hit a 38.8% ROI.

Proof positive this expert knows where the value lies as the greater you stake, the greater your profit.

#### 3) Odds you can actually get

In today’s modern betting world, we must also be aware of the issues we might suffer in trying to get our bets on.

Bookmakers shift prices very quickly at the smallest sign of shrewd money on a racing bet, especially those placed early away from the big race meetings.

Even if you do manage to obtain a good price for your bet, if it should win and especially if it shortens in price dramatically before the off, you run every chance of suffering a bookmaker account restriction or closure.

Which is why its important to follow a tipster that takes this into consideration. If they are putting up a 33/1 hot racing tip at 6pm the night before racing and not accounting for any price movement should the odds be slashed, its a problem.

Again though, our BTG expert leads the way here with a policy of only tipping in big raceswhen markets are already formed and when you are able to back them easily in shops.

He explains more on his fair policy here:

Whenever I issue a tip now, it is my belief that it is possible for people to back it in bookmaker shops, should they choose to do so.

So, if I issue a tip the day before a race, it will be in races which are generally priced up at that time; whilst those tips issued in the morning, are only issued when shops are open and the horses can be backed within them.

I’ve actually got a few guys in the service who do exactly this (they have no online accounts) – and they achieve around 90% of the prices by backing in shops.

This also means that the prices of all the tips are relatively robust, because the markets have some maturity. Therefore, it should be possible to back the horses at (or close to) the price specified an hour or so later both with bookmakers and on exchanges.

My focus on big races, helps massively in this whole area, because they tend to be competitive fields, and therefore most of the horses get backed.”

#### 4) Backable on the Exchanges

Leading on from this last point – if you are restricted or shut down by the bookies, then the best route open to you is that of betting exchanges.

Smarkets, Matchbook & Betdaq are all now improving, low commission alternatives to Betfair and offer a genuine route to punters unable to bet with bookies.

Exchanges allow you to win as much as you want and won’t shut you down. They welcome your business, even if you are a winner.

Best of all, our BTG expert is one you can follow on the exchanges with only a 2.6% ROI drop (after exchange commission) from the sample of data we gathered following them with Smarkets.

So rather than obtaining the 30.1% ROI as seen in my first point, you might instead make 2.6% less = 27.5% ROI. Still a very strong edge.

During the study, bets were generally placed between 9.30 and 10.15am, roughly 45 minutes to 1.5 hours after bet release.The sample size was decent – 508 bets and in short, the results demonstrated that backing these selections on big race days is viable on the Exchanges:

#### 5) Affordable & easy to follow

Last but not least, there are some sensible things any good tipster will think about – namely the price and how and when they supply tips.

The price is right

The cost of any tipster should be reasonable and will allow you to make plenty of profit beyond it. The profit also should be within your reach to make a profit without staking at huge levels.

Our BTG expert charges just £250 for a full NH season and averages around 45 points profit each time out. Even a simple £50 per point strategy would see you make around 10X the cost of joining in an average season.

Time of bet supply

Its important to also have a clear understanding of how many bets are supplied by the tipster and when they are sent on.

If tips come through at random times with no warning then realistically how are you going to be setup to follow them properly? They might send them at 10pm one day and 10am the next. If you need to get on them quickly then you will often miss out on value altogether.

Again, the BTG expert ticks the boxes here as he uses three possible tipping windows: 17.00-18.00 the evening before racing, 8.30-9.30 am, and 11.00-12.00am.

You know therefore when to look out for possible bets and when exactly they might be heading your way.

Hopefully these 5 key points will help to guide you towards those genuinely profitable tipsters that can help you make money betting.

There are naturally more than just 5 points to consider for every tipster but the 5 above are some of the most important and where many punters are unwittingly caught out.

Reviewing and tracking tipsters is what we do best here at the Smart Betting Club – having been at the heart of the industry since 2006.

For those of you after more information on our service, you can read about our tipster review process here and crucially our 100% independent stance.

More details on the Best Tipster Guide can also be found here.

### Save £45 Right Now

By joining the Smart Betting Club today, you can also save a whopping £45 on the usual cost of a Platinum ‘Pro Punter’ membership (which provides access to the Best Tipster Guide)

This is because we have slashed the price of joining to ensure as many people as possible have access to our reports, magazines and guides.

We know we can make a difference to your punting – so why not sign-up right away and get started immediately. (There is a 90-day refund guarantee available after all)

See you on the inside.

Best Regards,

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Editor

pete@smartbettingclub.com

# How to check if a tipster is telling the truth

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In today’s modern betting world, one of the most essential points to consider before joining any tipster is an understanding of just how realistic the odds they quote actually are.

Or to put it in more simple terms:

Can you REALLY match the results a tipster claims?

Because, as important it is to check out a tipster’s expertise and their long-term results, it is pointless to join any tipster if you can’t get on their bets at the right odds.

After all, if a tipster says a bet is value at 16/1 and you can only get 10/1 at best, you are taking a price 37% lower than is recommended. The type of difference that can turn a profitable tipster into a losing one if repeated time and time again.

Whilst it is widely known that trying to match the quoted odds for some very popular tipsters like Hugh Taylor is nigh-on impossible, odds movement is also a problem for many lesser-known tipsters these days.

This includes tipsters that put up tips very early the day before racing in weak markets or those that quote odds with bookmakers known to slash odds at the first sign of money.

Very often they are claiming odds you can’t replicate and if not careful, you could end up badly out of pocket.

So, what should you do if wary about joining a tipster for fear of not getting the odds?

Allow me to explain using an example of how we tackle this issue here at the Smart Betting Club…

### Why Its So Important To Track A Tipsters Odds

For every tipster review I oversee at the Smart Betting Club, I engage a member of my team to track how the odds on each advised tip stack up.

This in-depth tracking is designed to discover:

• How realistic the odds quoted by the tipster really are;
• How easy it is (or not) to match these quoted odds;
• How quickly the advised odds move downwards (if at all)
• AND….How much money you can really make with any given tipster;

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To take a recent example – In the 2017 Best Tipster Guide, I reviewed a racing tipster for whom we had tracked the odds available for several months.

Painstakingly noting down the best odds for each tip as each day wore on to see how the quoted odds held up.

This tracking compared the advised odds by the tipster with the following: the best odds available on receipt of email, after 15 minutes, at 10.30am or 60 minutes later (whichever applied) and to SP.

To make this exercise even fairer we only noted down the odds offered from just 10 bookmakers.

What we ultimately discovered was that the odds quoted by the tipster were very fair indeed, with only a -0.2% to -0.6% ROI difference between those advised and those we could obtain.

Here is the full rundown of what we uncovered and how the ROI from this tipster will have reduced over each time period:

Whilst there were bigger differences such as the -5.2% ROI difference at 10.30am and -14.3% ROI difference at SP, this is to be expected for any shrewd racing tipster.

Ultimately this was not a tipster you should be following at 10.30am or SP.

The clear evidence from this tracking was that this tipster is claiming achievable odds and is one to follow.

NOTE: This tipster advises the vast majority of their tips during the big race meetings and on Saturdays, where there is a lot more money swilling around in these markets.

PRO TIP: Look out for tipsters that put up bets in similar markets as you will often find they are much easier to get on!

### Adjusted Profits Based On This Odds Tracking…

As I perform similar odds tracking for each tipster SBC reviews these days, I also compile all of this data and present it in our Adjusted Profits Tables to present the differences on show.

Helping you view at a glance as to which tipsters offer the fairest odds!

This Adjusted Profits Table is available in our latest Tipster Profit Report and helps to raise awareness of those tipsters with both fair and possibly, unfair practices when it comes to settling bets.

Allow me to illustrate the power of this table further by using two examples from the latest Adjusted Profits Table (as taken from November’s Tipster Profit Report), which are based on the annualised profits made to a £2,000 betting bank.

Note: This £2,000 betting bank figure is merely a simple comparative sum – you don’t need this sum to follow these tipsters, it just helps us to compare and contrast easily.

Example 1: Improve Your Profits By £665

In the example featuring Tipster 1 below, our tracking revealed that you could actually boost the claimed profits by as much as 4% within the first 15 minutes of their advising a bet.

This is down to an extremely fair policy whereby Tipster 1 quotes and settle all tips to a very achievable price. Simply by using a site like Oddschecker to compare the best odds you can often beat their results.

To the £2,000 bank comparison sum, this 4% ROI difference in your favour over a year would be as much as £665 – a very considerable sum indeed.

Example 2: £3,554 Profit Becomes ‘Just’ £2,519

On the other hand, there are also those tipsters who quote what can be considered unrealistic odds as this next example proves.

If taking Tipster 2’s claimed results, you would have made a £3,554 profit – however with this service we noted major changes in price with an 8.5% ROI drop within the first 15 minutes.

This claimed £3,554 profit quickly became £2,519 – a drop of £1,035. Still profitable, but certainly not to the standards being claimed.

### It’s Not Just The Profits But Achievable Odds That Matter

Odds availability is a crucial element of any tipster analysis and ultimately helping you choose and find the best tipsters to make you money betting.

Therefore, before you consider joining a tipster, stop to consider just how available or easy their claimed profits actually are.

You need to know if you can match their advised prices…because it can ultimately determine whether you can make a profit or loss from their advice!

The good news is that there are many tipsters out there, including those in our Hall of Fame who operate fair odds availability policies.

Ensuring that at worst, you can match their claimed results and at best – even improve on them by using odds comparison websites.

#### Get The Full Adjusted Profits Table

You can find the full ‘Adjusted Profits’ Table in the latest Tipster Profit Report, where you can see the individual rundown of the odds tracking for each tipster we have observed.

It’s a great way to discover those tipsters that quote fair odds and where you can realistically match the profits they claim.

All SBC reviews also include odds tracking as standard these days, so you know at all times just how each tipster stacks up when it comes to fairness.

Odds tracking is all part of our quest to genuinely help you make money betting with tipsters.

### Sign-Up With A 90-Day Money Back Guarantee

If you want to know more about the very best betting tipsters (including those that quote FAIR odds) then you might like to consider a Smart Betting Club membership.

Best of all, membership also now comes with the full peace of mind provided by our 90-day risk-free money back guarantee.

Sign-up for either a Gold or Platinum membership and if you don’t like what you see, you can get your money back at any time during your first 90 days as a member.

If you sign-up and don’t like what we offer for any reason, email us and we will process a full refund. It’s that simple.

We offer this guarantee as we know the difference SBC can make to your punting – so why not sign-up right away and get started immediately.

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See you on the inside.

Peter Ling
SBC Editor

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