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RACING: Real signs of a recovery.

The racing portfolio has been racing ahead of its Sports and Golf equivalents, but that has almost entirely been down to the excellence of the Bookiebashing Racing Tracker.  So it was really encouraging last week to see Northern Monkey show us the sort of form he is capable of, bagging over 12 points of profit.  I managed to get on a couple of Saturday bets too, as they were released early.  Every day of the week saw a profit of some sort from NMP, and I may have detected too some real optimism that the bad spell may be coming to an end.  I’ve said it before, but the midsummer months are traditionally the best for this service, and the signs are there that that may be a trend that continues this year.  Let’s hope so.

As for BB’s Racing Tracker, it was another very profitable week, with two bets doing the business (out of 21).  One saw no winners but all four place in the Lucky 15, and the other saw winners at 11/2, 9/2 and 11/1 alongside a loser.  Shame I had no BOG concession – the 11/1 winner went off at 18s!  Still, I’m not complaining.

Overall and the racing section is not too far off doubling its bank for the year, which in July I’m hugely satisfied by.  Of course that 87% could well go down, but with NMP looking like it’s returning to form, and the BB Tracker continuing to produce the goods, there is plenty of cause for optimism.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 142pts, -9.93pts, roi -6.99%, roc -9.93%, High 0pts, DD -9.93pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 235.5pts, -29.384pts, roi -12.47%, roc -36.73%, High 0pts, DD -29.384pts, Max DD -45.043pts

The Value Bettor (40): Staked 9.75pts, +1.46pts, roi 14.97%, roc 3.65%, High 2.71pts, DD -1.25pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 241pts, +312.929pts, roi 129.84%, roc 312.929%, High 0pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -13.388pts

Racing Totals: ROI 45.73%, ROC 87.03%.

SPORTS: A turnaround for The Poacher?

This could well be a trick of memory – I am getting older! – but for what feels like the first time for a fair while, The Poacher landed the two bets put up on the same evening and a nice profit was landed.  It’s been a tough spell, but there will be a turning point when things start to go our way again, and I’m really hoping that last Friday and these two picks prove to be it.

Elsewhere and it was a fairly busy week for On The Oche, although as is the case through the summer, I wasn’t able to place the bets sent through on Saturday.  A sliver of a loss for me, but no real damage done at all, so nothing to worry about.

On to next week…

On The Oche (30pt bank): Staked 51.5pts, +7.37pts, roi 14.31%, roc 24.56%, High 7.64pts, DD -0.27pts, Max DD -2.05pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 142.5pts, +0.765pts, roi 0.53%, roc 1.91%, High 6.606pts, DD -5.841pts, Max DD -7.075pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 11pts, +0.39pts, roi 3.54%, roc 0.78%, High 0.66pts, DD -0.27pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 4.56%, ROC 8.1%

GOLF: J.T. Posts the way to victory for Weekly Golf Value

As far as golf winners go, Weekly Golf Value’s J.T.Poston (45/1) won the John Deere Classic over in the States about as comfortably and stress free as they come.  After shooting a first round 62 to lead by four shots or so on Day 1, he didn’t ever leave top spot, and even through the often nervy back-nice on the final day, he never really looked like relinquishing his lead.

With a share of a place in the same tournament, and a place poition secured in Europe with 100/1 shot Thorbjorn Olesen (also a ‘placer’ for The Rainmaker) it was a decent week for WGV.

Overall it was a profitable week with a small overall profit for The Rainmaker, PGA Profit and Tour Tips.  The only big disappointment was Golf Insider who blanked in all tournaments and by doing so has now reached a new depth of drawdown for 2022 to date.

An interesting email during the week from GI re the ne LIV Tour.  In essence, the Golf Insider feels this breakaway Tour is here to stay and what we’re seeing is a bit of a restructure in the golfing year that we’re going to have to get used to.  I’ve seen elsewhere it written that it is just a fad on shaky ground.  I guess time will tell which viewpoint turns out to be the more accurate.  All moral and ethical issues around the wider subject of sportswashing aside (and in the real world, it is of course not so easy to dismiss these!), from a betting point of view I guess it will provide more tournaments for our tipsters to sink their teeth into.

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 237pts, -51.635pts, roi -21.67%, roc -25.68%, High 29.24pts, DD -80.875pts, Max DD -80.875pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 466.5pts, +76.24pts, roi 16.34%, roc 15.24%, High 119.24pts, DD -43pts, Max DD -127.01pts

European Tour (500): Staked 81.5pts, -65pts, roi -79.75%, roc -13%. High 0pts, DD -65pts, Max DD -65pts

Ben Coley (600): Staked 496pts, -110.79pts, roi -22.33%, roc -18.46%, High 79.93pts, DD -190.72pts, Max DD -190.72pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 126pts, -35.27pts, roi -27.99%, roc -23.51%, High 19.614pts, DD -55.25pts, Max DD -55.85pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 2,526.5pts, +955.28pts, roi 37.81%, roc 47.76%, High 1,136.72pts, DD -181.44pts, Max DD -435.75pts

The Rainmaker (400): Staked 664.5pts, -244.3pts, roi -36.76%, roc -61.07%, High 5.2pts, DD: -249.5pts, Max DD -282.6pts

Golf Totals: ROI -11.1%, ROC -14.93%

RACING: Speechless, flabbergasted, elated – BB Racing Tracker on Fire!!!

The 8.20 over in Ireland, last Monday.  I was on an 11/1 shot.  I don’t often watch the races I’ve bet on, but I’d made an effort for this one.

My selection eased its way to the front about three furlongs out and struck for home, pulling a length or so clear.  I was strangely calm, not really feeling any real emotion.  Sure, I was hopeful, but there was still a long way to go.  A cool cucumber like me doesn’t get all het up in moments like this.  It’s just another bet, at the end of the day.

Except it wasn’t.

It was only when about 100 yards from the post that my horse was overtaken.  It had been a bold effort, but backed each way the second place finish had merit, and a return.  The thing is though, that that beast was the fourth leg of a Lucky 15 that had already produced winners at 14/1, 22/1 and 7/1!!!!  I was 100 yards away from a five figure payout.

Was I b*!llocks as “cool as a cucumber”! I was shouting that nag on so loud my neighbours must have wondered what on earth was going on.  Was I disappointed?  Not really.  A four figure sum was compensation.

The bet landed a profit of over 108 points.  The bank is only 100 points.  And this to go on top of the 90-odd point earning Lucky 15 of a few weeks ago.

I realise that I am experiencing extreme positive variance.  This cannot go on, it’s that simple.  But by ‘eck I’m going to enjoy it whilst it lasts.  For those interested, I don’t have any science-based logic behind why I pick the horses for the Lucky 15s that I do.  I do use the Racing Pro version, for those familiar with the Bookiebashing product.  But beyond that, I just try to have a spread of different odds within the Lucky 15 and within those parameters tend to go for the horses offering the most +EV.  I’ll have one horse at 9/1 or under, two between 10/1 and 14/1, and one longer shot going up to 25/1.  And that’s it.  That’s my “strategy”.

I’m fully expecting a sizeable drawdown.  It’s just got to happen now.  Hasn’t it?

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 142pts, -9.93pts, roi -6.99%, roc -9.93%, High 0pts, DD -9.93pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 221.5pts, -42.168pts, roi -19.03%, roc -52.71%, High 0pts, DD -42.168pts, Max DD -45.043pts

The Value Bettor (40): Staked 9.75pts, +1.46pts, roi 14.97%, roc 3.65%, High 2.71pts, DD -1.25pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 220pts, +291.292pts, roi 132.44%, roc 291.29%, High 0pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -13.388pts

Racing Totals: ROI 42.52%, ROC 76.28%.

SPORTS: Two bets…

…one of which won, and one of which lost.  Kind of sums up the Sports portfolio during what is undoubtedly the quietest time of the year.

The new football season is creeping closer.  It feels like it should be ages away, but with the World Cup interrupting the season in December, the European leagues are starting earlier than usual.  A number of Premier League clubs started back at pre-season training on Monday!  When that happens, and when the new NFL season starts late summer, then things will start to pick up again. Until then though, it’s going to be quiet.

The winner was for On The Oche which sets a new high water mark for the year.  The loser for The Poacher which sets a new low mark for the year.  I’m now in negative territory with the latter which clearly isn’t great, but I’m not worried or losing faith.  Not at this stage – the drop from high to low remains less than 25% of the bank.  My feelings are that this is simply a disappointing spell that will be put behind us.  One thing I do know is that The Poacher himself will be working hard to bring back the good times.

On The Oche (30pt bank): Staked 47.5pts, +7.64pts, roi 16.08%, roc 25.46%, High 7.64pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -2.05pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 140.5pts, -0.469pts, roi -0.33%, roc -1.17%, High 6.606pts, DD -7.075pts, Max DD -7.075pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 11pts, +0.39pts, roi 3.54%, roc 0.78%, High 0.66pts, DD -0.27pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 4.27%, ROC 7.34%

 

GOLF: Shocker!

This is a particularly brief post as there is very little to say about what can only be termed as a shocker of a golf betting week.  That the second best result – after one Golf Insider tip managing to grab a share of 8th in the PGA event along with about 35 other golfers – was Sungjae Im withdrawing before the start and so giving us our money back, says it all.

Perhaps The Rainmaker knew.  He didn’t get a return anywhere, but it was noticeable that he tipped up fewer players and committed a lower number of points to the week’s selections than I’d previously seen from him.  In some ways, that kinda feels like a bit of a win.

Let’s very much hope that this week brings better!

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 225pts, -39.635pts, roi -17.61%, roc -19.81%, High 29.24pts, DD -68.875pts, Max DD -76.35pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 459.5pts, +67.24pts, roi 14.63%, roc 13.44%, High 119.24pts, DD -52pts, Max DD -127.01pts

European Tour (500): Staked 81.5pts, -65pts, roi -79.75%, roc -13%. High 0pts, DD -65pts, Max DD -65pts

Ben Coley (600): Staked 496pts, -110.79pts, roi -22.33%, roc -18.46%, High 79.93pts, DD -190.72pts, Max DD -190.72pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 120pts, -35.87pts, roi -29.89%, roc -23.91%, High 19.614pts, DD -55.85pts, Max DD -55.85pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 2,373.5pts, +799.03pts, roi 33.66%, roc 39.95%, High 1,136.72pts, DD -337.69pts, Max DD -435.75pts

The Rainmaker (400): Staked 596pts, -250.8pts, roi -42.08%, roc -62.52%, High 5.2pts, DD: -256pts, Max DD -282.6pts

Golf Totals: ROI -16.05%, ROC -12.9%.

RACING: Bet Alchemist enjoys Royal Ascot

A good week at the Royal meeting last week for Bet Alchemist.  Not sure how they did on the Saturday, but a couple of nice priced winners on the Tuesday and Wednesday ensured a health profit was made for my week at least.  We’re within touching distance of being break even for the year.  Hopefully the weeks immediately ahead will see us push into the black.

That marker feels a long way away at the moment for Northern Monkey, who as you might expect, was busy last week.  There were a couple of winners but a loss overall and we’re again at a low point for 2022 to date.  Other followers of the service may not be of course, but breaching the 50% loss of the bank is always a little uncomfortable, no matter how experienced a bettor you are.

A quiet week for Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker too with a profit, but one less than a point!  However, in what is a bit of a teaser, I strongly suggest you read next week’s post.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 134pts, -5.53pts, roi -4.12%, roc -5.53%, High 0pts, DD -5.53pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 204.5pts, -45.043pts, roi -22.02%, roc -56.3%, High 0pts, DD -45.043pts, Max DD -45.043pts

The Value Bettor (40): Staked 9.75pts, +1.46pts, roi 14.97%, roc 3.65%, High 2.71pts, DD -1.25pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 198pts, +183.042pts, roi 92.44%, roc 183.04%, High 0pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -13.388pts

Racing Totals: ROI 25.79%, ROC 42.65%

SPORT: A smidgeon of profit.

It may be only a little bit, but a profit is a profit, and always – always! – better than a loss.

And so I’m going take the few quid I made from the sports tipsters last week, add it to the fund, and carry on.  That’s all I can do.  And you’ll never hear me complaining about adding to funds.

This past week finally saw an end to the Spanish Segunda league season, and I thought I detected just a hint of relief in The Poacher’s email.  He finished with two winners from two bets on Sunday, which was a nice way to round things off.

On The Oche eaked out the profit for the week though.  Nothing spectacular, just a touch over a half point’s worth, and that will do me.

On The Oche (30pt bank): Staked 46.5pts, +6.44pts, roi 13.84%, roc 21.46%, High 6.44pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -2.05pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 139.5pts, +0.531pts, roi 0.38%, roc 1.32%, High 6.606pts, DD -6.075pts, Max DD -6.075pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 11pts, +0.39pts, roi 3.54%, roc 0.78%, High 0.66pts, DD -0.27pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 4.19%, ROC 7.14%.

GOLF: Fine margins.

I stayed up to watch the end of the US Open last night, simply because Weekly Golf Value and The Rainmaker had both put up Will Zalatoris (I had 28/1 and 30/1).  Prominent at the top of the leaderboard throughout the final round, our man was neck and neck with ultimate winner Mark Fitzpatrick and would have forced a play off had he managed to hole his first putt on the last green.  Agonzingly, the ball rolled literally millimetres past the hole.

In top level sport, fine margins can dictate careers, let alone the outcome of single matches or events.  The width of a post, a fielder stopping a ball an inch from the boundary rope, a golfer rolling a putt fractionally wide…these are the things that matter.  And if these things dictate and separate the winners from the losers in sport, so they will those betting on the outcome.  Had Zalatoris holed that putt, it would have been the a big win on the week.  As it was, those millimetres meant a losing week.

It was a solid enough week for The Rainmaker who also had Keegan Bradley place, and therefore he turned a profit.  That was the only service to do so though (although judging by what I saw on Twitter, I think Ben Coley was on the winner!).

Let’s see what this week coming brings…

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 215pts, -30.635pts, roi -14.24%, roc -15.31%, High 29.24pts, DD -59.875pts, Max DD -76.35pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 442.5pts, +84.24pts, roi 19.03%, roc 16.84%, High 119.24pts, DD -35pts, Max DD -127.01pts

European Tour (500): Staked 81.5pts, -65pts, roi -79.75%, roc -13%. High 0pts, DD -65pts, Max DD -65pts

Ben Coley (600): Staked 496pts, -110.79pts, roi -22.33%, roc -18.46%, High 79.93pts, DD -190.72pts, Max DD -190.72pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 120pts, -35.87pts, roi -29.89%, roc -23.91%, High 19.614pts, DD -55.85pts, Max DD -55.85pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 2,276.5pts, +896.03pts, roi 39.35%, roc 44.8%, High 1,136.72pts, DD -240.69pts, Max DD -435.75pts

Golf Totals: ROI -10.42%, ROC -12.9%.

 

The Rainmaker (400)(£5): Staked 584pts, -238.8pts, roi -40.89%, roc -59.7%, High 5.2pts, DD: -244pts, Max DD -282.6pts

RACING: Half Term Report

Like with the sports services, I didn’t place one bet on the nags last week so there’s no performance update to be had.  Instead, we’ll continue the theme for the week of taking a view on where we’re at halfway through the year.

It’s all a little weird with the racing portfolio at the moment.  The overall ROI is at an absolutely outstanding 40%, and the ROC at 42% (remember my target for the full year is bank growth of 50%!).  And yet we have Bet Alchemist and Northern Monkey running at -13.5% ROI and -22.5% respectively.  With The Value Bettor contributing just 1.4 points of profit before the National Hunt season came to an end in April, you can see just how reliant we’ve been on the quite outstanding performance of the Bookiebashing Racing Tracker.

The rate of return from the Tracker has been quite remarkable (104.2% ROI) and I am well aware that it simply can’t continue.  At some point sooner or later I’m going to start to revert to the mean.  What I’ve experienced so far is clearly positive variance, and it’s as important to ot get carried away by that as it is to not get too doomy and gloomy when the variance is negative.

Which brings me back round to Bet Alchemist and Northern Monkey.  NMP in particular had a fine year last year, and I’ve no doubt the good times will return.  It would be nice if the midsummer months saw a real return to the form we know Wayne is so very capable of.  The same could be said for BA too.  With these two services we have very experienced tipsters who have been in the game for a long time.  That has to count for a lot, and I genuinely feel that it is simply a case of grinding away until the wheel of fortune turns full circle and we’re bringing in the profits again.

Let’s hope so.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 106pts, -14.392pts, roi -13.57%, roc -14.39%, High 0pts, DD -14.392pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 174.75pts, -39.322pts, roi -22.5%, roc -49.15%, High 0pts, DD -39.322pts, Max DD -40.047pts

The Value Bettor (40): Staked 9.75pts, +1.46pts, roi 14.97%, roc 3.65%, High 2.71pts, DD -1.25pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 175pts, +182.363pts, roi 104.2%, roc 182.36%, High 0pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -13.388pts

Racing Totals: ROI 40.24%, ROC 42.01%