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RACING: Taking the bad times with the, err,…bad! And what’s wrong with my TV?

The general theme of this week’s Bet Diary posts has been that it’s all been pretty gloomy.  I’d love to say that he racing section had compensated, but if I did I’d be lying.

Despite a decent Saturday for Northern Monkey who landed a couple of Maximum single bet and a double when Royale Pagaille won the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock, there really hasn’t been much to shout about.

So I won’t.  Suffice to say, neither Bet Alchemist of Racing Service 1 had much by way of success, both lost on the week, and did more damage than just negate the small weekly profit from NMP.

On another thing entirely, how’s this for spooky?  Twice now, our television has turned itself on during the middle of the night.  Blaring volume, way higher than we’d ever have it on at.  What’s going on?!?

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 15pts, -6.75pts, roi -45%, roc -6.75%, High 0pts, DD -6.75pts, Max DD -6.75pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 20.25pts, -4.013pts, roi -19.81%, roc -5.01%, High 0pts, DD -6.075pts, Max DD -6.075pts

Racing Service 1 (40): Staked 4pts, -1.54pts, roi -38.5%, roc -3.85%, High 0pts, DD -1.54pts, Max DD -2pts

Racing Totals: ROI -31.03%, ROC -3.85%

SPORTS: NFL gets off the mark, but tough going.

I imagine the Sports portfolio is going to be pretty darned quiet at times this year.  Which is a good thing.  If you read my Bet Diary posts at the start of the year, you will know that one of my main aims for 2022 was to cut back the time I dedicate to betting without losing anything in terms of profitability.

With Sports Service 1 in action only sporadically, and Touchdown Profit only through the six months of the NFL season (with few games each week once the regular season ends), it is going to be The Poacher that provides by far the most regular action.  Come the summer when the main European leagues shut down, it’s going to be very quiet indeed.

What all this does mean is that with reduced turnover, there is a greater risk of variance having an effect for a longer period of time (in terms of weeks and months).  It is easy for a low-turnover service to have a losing year, because there are relatively few bets.  Of course if things go well, the stats can show an amazing year.

All of this is a very long-winded way of saying that it was good to see Touchdown Profit get off the mark for 2022 with a win from its only bet this week having lost its first four bets.  We don’t want to be getting too far behind when we know there are not going to be that many bets over a course of 12 months to allow us to catch up.

Not a great week for The Poacher though, and like the golf, Sports is struggling to get going this year.

Sports Service 1 (30pt bank): n/a

The Poacher (40): Staked 18pts, -0.731pts, roi -4.06%, roc -1.82%, High 3.33pts, DD -4.061pts, Max DD -4.061pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 5pts, -3.09pts, roi -61.8%, roc -6.18%, High 0pts, DD -3.09pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI -14.55%, ROC -2.66%.

GOLF: Slim pickings.

Well, this post is going to be a short one, because there are hardly any returns to talk about this week.  It’s been a bad week for the golf tipsters as the DP Tour (European) got up and running in Abu Dhabi.

Let’s list the blanks: Golf Insider, Ben Coley, PGA Profit, European Tour and Tour Tips.

From a portfolio of six services, that’s not great!

The only return this week came from Weekly Golf Value, with Tyrell Hatton finishing in the frame at 20/1.  We were a little unlucky with Adam Scott bogeying the last hole – a par 5 – to drop out of the frame, but even if this hadn’t happened the week would have been a very poor one.  It was kinda summed up over Stateside, with WGV pick Seamus Power starting the last day just two shots off the lead, before promptly double bogeying the very first hole.  He never recovered, and it summed up the week as a whole.

Oh well, on we go…

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 15pts, -8.11pts, roi -54.06%, roc -4.05%, High 1.89pts, DD -10pts, Max DD -10pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 55pts, -49.5pts, roi -90%, roc -9.9%, High 0pts, DD -49.5pts, Max DD -49.5pts

European Tour (500): Staked 4pts, -4pts, roi -100%, roc -0.8%. High 0pts, DD -4pts, Max DD -4pts

Ben Coley (600): Staked 47pts, +25.66pts, roi 54.59%, roc 4.27%, High 56.66pts, DD -31pts, Max DD -31pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 18pts, -18pts, roi -100%, roc -12%, High 0pts, DD -12pts, Max DD -12pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 134.5pts, -84.88pts, roi -63.1%, roc -4.24%, High 5.37pts, DD -90.25pts, Max DD -90.25pts

Golf Totals: ROI -59.96%, ROC -4.47%

RACING: Building a Cheltenham war chest!

Northern Monkey is something of an enigma.  Ask me, or any subscriber I reckon, or even Wayne himself as to what sort of horse racing service NMP is, and as sure as eggs are eggs the answer would be: a flat racing service. Indeed, in an email this past week Wayne did actually say just that:

“…any profit we make over the winter is always considered a bonus as NMP is a Flat racing service”.

You really can’t get much clearer than that, eh?  So why is it then, that every year at the Cheltenham Festival Northern Monkey’s Cheltenham antepost advice always seems to produce a great profit?

Anyway, this year’s portfolio of Cheltenham bets is beginning to grow, and if previous years are anything to go by, it’s going to grow bigger and bigger.  It all adds up to an exciting week of racing and let’s face it, the Festival is pretty exciting enough anyway.

In the meantime and the past week has been a quiet one on the racing front.  Racing Service 1 tipped just one horse over the weekend, a nice winner.  I know January can be a bit of a quieter month anyway as racing yards up and down the country time their prep runs for their Festival hopefuls and certainly it was a day of small fields on Saturday, the day you would normally expect the racing to be at its most competitive.

But this is simply the lull before the Cheltenham storm, I’m sure.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 8pts, -4pts, roi -50%, roc -4%, High 0pts, DD -4pts, Max DD -4pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 8.75pts, -6.075pts, roi -69.42%, roc -7.59%, High 0pts, DD -6.075pts, Max DD -6.075pts

Racing Service 1 (40): Staked 2.5pts, -0.04pts, roi -1.6%, roc -0.1%, High 0pts, DD -0.04pts, Max DD -2pts

Racing Totals: ROI -46.42%, ROC -3.89%.

SPORTS: A difficult start but focus is on the long term.

It’s a nightmare when you start to follow a new service and it gets off to a difficult start.  Even now, after having been following tipsters for a number of years, I really hope that the first bets with a new service will provide a return.  It does wonders for confidence.  Human nature, I guess.

So with the first four bets from Touchdown Profit all losing, I’m finding I have to keep reminding myself that four losing tips really is nothing…and it isn’t.  The statistical significance doesn’t even register.  You know that.  I know that.  We all know that.

But it would be nice to get a winner.

In contrast The Poacher has solidified a good start to the year.  Together, they’ve compensated for the other and so I’m essentially at break even.

Sports betting is about grinding.  And that’s what I feel like I’m doing.

On The Oche (30pt bank): n/a

The Poacher (40): Staked 9pts, +3.104pts, roi 34.48%, roc 7.76%, High 3.33pts, DD 0.226pts, Max DD -1pt

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 4pts, -4pts, roi -100%, roc -8%, High 0pts, DD -4pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI -0.78%, ROC -0.08%.

GOLF: First winner of the year!

And we’re  up and running!  Ben Coley’s tip on Hideki Matsuyama came in after a play off (tipped at 20/1, I got 20.0 on Smarkets) although that really, is only half the story.  Ben actually tweeted this morning that the player Matsuyama defeated in that play off  Russell Henley – had been five shots clear going into the back nine of the final round and missed a 10ft putt to win the tournament.  For our man to win from that sort of position is pretty remarkable, but we’ll take it.

All this action unfolded way, way past my bedtime and I think with what went down I’m pretty pleased it all passed my by.  Not sure the old ticker would have taken all the drama!

So, really nice to get the first winner under our belt, but unfortunately a collective lack of placed golfers from the other tipsters meant that over the week, I actually lost a bit.

Golf Insider is exempt from this criticism, finding two to place at 35/1 and 150/1. I say place, the 150/1 shot finished tied for 7th so I got a return from the Top 10 market.  Other than that though, zilch.  Nada.  Niente.

The European Tour recommences this week.  Golf is taking over!

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 5pts, +1.89pts, roi 37.8%, roc 0.94%, High 1.89pts, DD 0pts, Max DD 0pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 36pts, -30.5pts, roi -84.72%, roc -6.1%, High 0pts, DD -30.5pts, Max DD -30.5pts

European Tour (500): n/a

Ben Coley (600): Staked 16pts, +56.66pts, roi 354.12%, roc 9.44%, High 56.66pts, DD 0pts, Max DD 0pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 6pts, -6pts, roi -100%, roc -4%, High 0pts, DD -6pts, Max DD -6pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 67pts, -36.13pts, roi -53.92%, roc 1.8%, High 5.37pts, DD -41.5pts, Max DD -41.5pts

Total: ROI -12.2%, ROC -0.39%

RACING: NOT, the best of starts!

So the weekend saw me leap (stumble?) into racing action then, and by the end of a miserable day’s betting, I kinda wished I hadn’t bothered.  Between Bet Alcemihst, Northern Monkey and Racing Service 1, I struck 11 bets, many of them each way, and failed to get one single return.

I reckon the weather didn’t help.  To be quite honest with you, if I was a horse and I poked my nose out of my box and saw it raining like I needed to build an ark, I can’t say that I’d be particularly enthused about getting out there and giving it my best shot.  I think I’d sulk a bit, roll my eyes a lot and tut loudly, and generally channel my inner mule, ie. I’d be pretty darned stubborn about not putting my best foot forward.

Anyway, things can only get better.  Well, I suppose they could quite easily get a lot worse before getting better when I think about it, but let’s not go there for now.  Instead let’s think positively.  It hasn’t rained for an hour or two, and next weekend could be a lot, lot better.

One observation though.  I mentioned last week how I have sought to taper down my workload this year in terms of bet placement.  Well, I think I’ve succeeded in achieving that aim.  I know Northern Monkey will be more active in the summer, but of course at that point RS1 will be on his annual hibernation.  With no bets at all to place between Monday and Wednesday of this week, in a betting sense I’ve been twiddling my thumbs.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 3pts, 0pts, roi 0%, roc 0%, High 0pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -2pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 4.25pts, -3.825pts, roi -90%, roc -4.78%, High 0pts, DD -3.825pts, Max DD -3.825pts

Racing Service 1 (40): Staled 2pts, -2pts, roi -100%, roc -5%, High 0pts, DD -2pts, Max DD -2pts

SPORTS: Off to steady start.

It was Saturday before I jumped on The Poacher’s bets and we’ve got off to a steady enough start.  Not everything has run smoothly, and only a few days The Poacher professed to be in a “grinding away” position.  We’ve had a couple of red cards for the wrong team and late equalisers we’d rather not have, but after just three days betting we’re over a point up and I ain’t complaining.

This weekend saw a number of dead rubbers in the round of NFL matches and so just the one bet from Touchdown Profit as they seek to keep powder dry for the upcoming play-offs.

With the end of the World Championships, a tournament we were hopeful of big things from Sports Service 1 that sadly failed to materialize, we’ve not had any darting action at all, so a pretty quiet week all round.

Let’s see what this next week brings.

Sports Service 1 (30pt bank):

The Poacher (40): Staked 5pts, +1.686pts, roi 33.72%, roc 4.21%, High 1.686pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -1pt

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 1pt, -1pt, roi -100%, roc -2%, High 0pts, DD -1pt, Max DD -1pt

Total:  ROI 15.27%, ROC 0.73%

GOLF: And the two new golf tipsters for 2022 are…

2022 is up and running.  Well, walking anyway.  Perhaps jogging now, but definitely walking this time last week.  With a host of other “stuff” to do, I took it easy with my betting last week, not backing anything on horses or sports until the weekend, and only the PGA Profit (small loss) and Weekly Golf Value (small profit) picks on the golf.

One of the main reasons for this easing of my way in was working out which golf tipsters to follow this year.  If it’s one thing I’ve learnt, it is to take your time with this sort of decision, and with everything else that was going on I thought it wise to let the week more or less slide.  There’ll be loads of golfing action soon enough to get stuck into.

Mind you, I remember doing the exact same thing last year, prevaricating over Weekly Golf Value, and I missed a winner as a result.  But when I go on holiday over Christmas, I do make a deliberate effort to stop thinking too much about betting or anything else for that matter. There’s a huge amount to be said for switching off completely every now and again.

So, the upshot is I now have my golfing tipsters/services all lined up and ready to go.  The roll call is…drum roll…

Golf Insider

PGA Profit

European Profit

Weekly Golf Value

Ben Coley

Tour Tips

The latter two are new to the portfolio, and a factor that did come into play is that they are both free to follow.  I thought readers of the Bet Diary who are looking to get their golf betting journey up and running could do a lot worse than follow two tipsters with a strong track record, fully reviewed by the SBC, and which won’t cost a penny to subscribe to.  A quick follow and alarm set on Twitter, and bet notifications hit the old phone.  No huge rush to get on.  What could be simpler.

Just a word on PGA Profit this past week.  In his tournament notes, Matt actually mentioned eventual winner Cam Smith as a player he would have given as a bet had the odds been available widely enough.  With only two bookmakers offering acceptable odds at the time the bet email was sent out, Matt felt it would be unfair to his members to give Smith as an official selection.  That Smith won must have been hugely frustrating for him, but to me, full credit is due for being ultra-professional and putting the interests of his members first.  I’m sure there would be many a tipster who couldn’t care a less for such things, and issued the bet knowing full well that not many would be able to get on.  Well played, Sir!

PGA Profit (500pt bank): Staked 17pts, -11.5pts, roi -67.64%, roc -2.3%, High 0pts, DD -11.5pts, Max DD -11.5pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 25.5pts, +5.37pts, roi 21.05%, roc 0.26%, High 5.37pts, DD 0pts, Max DD 0pts

Golf Totals: ROI -16.56%, ROC 54.81%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

RACING: A game of two halves.

I followed four horse racing services in 2021.  Two of them – Bet Alchemist and Northern Monkey – produced a great profit for me, particularly the latter.  The other two – Racing Service 1 and Precision Value – did not.  In fact over the period January to December, RS1 actually ended up in the red.  The profit for Precision Value was minimal.

Being completely honest, I retain full faith in all of the services.  I know how good RS1 is at reading form and at reading between the form lines.  He is the master of his art and suffers from a tipping point of view from a relative lack of turnover.  Compared to many (most) racing services, RS1 bet numbers are low and consequently more susceptible to variance.

Precision Value too comes from a very, very well respected source (quite rightly so) whose methods have been proven to be successful over many years.  I genuinely have no doubt that the good times will return. The source of the PV bets is flawless.

But as you may have read yesterday, by ramping up my golf betting (by two services) then I need to lose two to counter the workload/time commitment.  And because of that, I’m very reluctantly going to let Precision Value go this year.  I hate doing it, I really do.

So just the three racing tipsters being followed this year, to add to the three sports and six golf.

Early results in next week’s posts.