Bet Diary Email Updates

Follow Rowan's Profitable Betting Quest

Receive each of Rowan's Bet Diary posts direct to your inbox and never miss an update on his profitable tipster portfolio.

Enter your email address below to receive the latest from Rowan each week:

We won't send you spam. You can also unsubscribe at any time. Powered by ConvertKit

Tipsters under pressure.

It was a pretty poor week all round last week, but two tipsters have put themselves under some fairly severe pressure through continuing underperformance.

I’m rooting for him, but if you have read the SBC’s latest Tipster Profit Report, you will know that Racing Service 3 has been in the doldrums for a little while.  His place in the Hall of Fame is looking less secure and he needs to show signs of an improvement in his form sooner rather than later.  He has been through tough spells before of course, and it has been his ability to remain focused when under pressure that has seen him recover from them before pushing ahead again.  I’ve a feeling that crunch time has arrived however.  It hadn’t been a bad week for RS3 until an exceptionally busy Saturday saw a lot of bets and only one winner, the outcome being a pretty poor day.

The other service to suffer recently has been Football Lay Profits.  Last Sunday was another particularly poor day; not the first in recent times.  The result is a large deficit and already there has to be question marks over whether or not this season can turn a profit or not.  It can.  Of course it can.  But we need to see a return to the consistency for which this service has been known in the past.  To be over 23 points down already for September, having ended August in excess of 10 points down is a loss of form that I don’t remember seeing from FLP in the past.  That may be my poor memory at play, and let’s retain some sense of perspective.  We have a 200 point bank set up, so a c.30-35 point drawdown isn’t setting off panic alarms, but nonetheless we could do with seeing a reversal in fortune if only to restore confidence.

This is not the time to panic.  I’m confident that neither RS3 nor FLP are doing so.  So let’s buckle up and brace ourselves…and hope that the good times return quickly for these two tipsters under pressure.

Main’ portfolio: ROI -4.17%, ROC -1.56%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI -19.4%, ROC -7.05%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 17pts, -4.95pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 32pts, -5.325pts.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 126.8pts, -23.71pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 8pts, +1.399pts

Golf Insider: Staked 31.5pts, -31.5pts.

MVS: Staked 30pts, +1.125pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 26pts, +4.937pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 16.9pts, +3.836pts.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 68.25pts, -3.175pts.

Tipsters – a breed of Superhumans?

I don’t think he’ll mind my saying so but Wayne of Northern Monkey was recently married.  He took a few days off by way of a honeymoon.  How dare he – I expect my tipsters to be working all day, every day in the pursuit of profit!

I jest, of course.  But there is a serious point to be made around just how hard the best tipsters work for their members.

How often have you, in your working life, really felt that you need a break, to go away for a few days and completely switch off from the day to day stress of your job?  There can’t be many, if any, who don’t feel like that at least a couple of times every year.  And yet the tipsters I follow appear to be complete workaholics.  Most of them I believe, have jobs outside of betting, and will no doubt have to cope with the pressures of work on top of the pressure they come under from running a tipping service.  To me, that sounds like a lot to handle, and yet rarely do they seem to go on holiday or take a break.

I’ve long felt that there’s a tendency by some to simply assume that tipsters live in some kind of tipping bubble, unaffected by outside factors such as work, having kids, or even something as small as suffering from a cold.  I know what it feels like to struggle out of bed in the morning, nose streaming and throat raw, feeling awful but knowing you have to get to work.  And then after a long and exhausting day, still feeling like death warmed up, collapsing into bed with a lemsip.  Imagine doing all that, but before the lemsip bit, having do all that you need to do to run your service – finding the bets, dealing with emails, all the admin stuff.

My view is that the tipsters I follow go to superhuman lengths to provide their members with a profit.  They must do.  We never hear them complain, but that doesn’t mean they’re not experiencing what the rest of us go through in day to day life, which of course they do.  To my mind, those that run their services professionally and with care, are to be congratulated for the effort they put into doing so.

Portfolio performance for September to date:

A solid if unspectacular start to the month.  It was good to see the return to action of Football Service 1, although the timing of the season’s first break in domestic football for the interminably dull international break stymied somewhat the number of bets.  Only three, but all three won so a great start.  The aforementioned Northern Monkey returned too, celebrating the recent nuptials by knocking in a couple of decent winners, including a winning double.  Good to see Football Service 2 having some success, perhaps reward for taking stock after a recent poor spell and being a little more selective in his approach.

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 5.05%, ROC 0.94%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI -1.5%, ROC -0.22%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 6pts, -1.285pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 14pts, -1.25pts.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 46.7pts, -7.6pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 3pts, +4.189pts

Golf Insider: Staked 20.5pts, -20.5pts.

MVS: Staked 20pts, -3.625pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 12.5pts, +8.318pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 7.4pts, +2.006pts.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 23.75pts, +0.125pts.

August Review

August was a bit of a strange month in the sense that I took a week out to go away on holiday.  I’ve no idea to this date how each service performed whilst I was away, although I get the impression I may have missed out on some extra Northern Monkey profit as the official figures are a fair bit better than mine, and that is not usually the case.

I also know I missed a Golf Insider winner and all in it hasn’t been a good month for the Broxchange portfolio.  The situation wasn’t helped by the fact that it has only had Golf Insider and Football Lay Profits providing any action.  Football Service 1 returns this month to boost turnover and hopefully profit.

FLP is worrying me at the moment, I must admit.  The first month of the new season has seen a pretty bad loss in terms of points dropped and the trouble with a laying service is that it feels that losses can take a long time to recoup.  When you win (by your team not winning) you only benefit to the tune of 0.95 or 0.98 points, dependant on which exchange you placed the lay and the relevant rate of commission.  So a loss of ten points means you need 11 straight winning lays to get back on track.

This is all psychological of course, and one or two decent weekends will provide a different feeling I’m sure.

On the positives, then it’s fair to say that BetAlchemist, Racing Service 1 and Northern Monkey all excelled through August.  In light of this, it feels a little underwhelming when considering the overall ROI attained for the month was 8.3%.  Not a bad figure by any means, but one which makes me feel it could and perhaps should, have been so much better.

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 8.3%, ROC 4.4%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI -11.53%, ROC -3.96%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 39pts, +19.008pts, ROI 48.73%, ROC 19%.

Racing Service 1: Staked 66pts, +44.775pts, ROI 67.84%, ROC 22.38%

Football Lay Profits: Staked 147.35pts, -10.96pts, ROI -7.43%, ROC -5.48%

Football Service 1: n/a

Golf Insider: Staked 35pts, -16.112pts, ROI -46.03%, ROC -4.02%.

MVS: Staked 72pts, -10.8.75pts, ROI -15.1%, ROC -10.87%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 45.5pts, +31.054pts, ROI 68.25%, ROC 38.81%.

Football Service 2: Staked 22.75pts, -0.777pts, ROI -3.41%, ROC -1.94%.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 71.5pts, -24.55pts, ROI -34.33%, ROC -17.53%

How do your tipsters react when they lose?

Football Service 2 had a bit of a stinker on Saturday.  Five and a half points were staked across six bets.  Only one was a winner.

No-one enjoys following a tipster when they’re losing, but it is always somewhat reassuring when a tipster who is suffering acknowledges poor form and spells out exactly what they feel the reasons are and what they are going to do to reverse their fortunes.  In this respect, FS2 excel.

Come Saturday evening, when all the results were in and had been digested, an FS2 email hit members’ inbox.  After reading the email, I know my concerns had been soothed somewhat.  It was clear that here is a tipster who has seen bad runs come and go in the past and had always recovered strongly from the drawdowns.  The email told of theories as to why form had been so unpredictable in recent weeks, and what the consequences were in terms of betting over the next few weeks.  It also showed an awareness that a bettor must continually adapt to stay ahead of the game, to react quickly to changing conditions, and to have such a depth of knowledge about their area of expertise that they can see why their betting environment is changing.

To be honest, I have been taken a little by surprise by FS2’s recent lack of form.  This is traditionally a strong time of year for this service.  But having received that email, I feel pretty darned confident that it will be churning out the profits again very soon.

So, a question for you.  How may of the tipsters that you follow take the time and trouble to explain why they feel things are as they are when they’re not doing so well?  I’d be interested to hear of people’s experiences.

Portfolio performance for August to date:

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 10.71%, ROC 4.58%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI -5.94%, ROC -1.35%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 32pts, +12.175pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 58pts, +43.775pts.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 89.25pts, +1.71pts.

Football Service 1: n/a

Golf Insider: Staked 35pts, -16.112pts.

MVS: Staked 59pts, -8pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 42.75pts, +33.204pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 19.25pts, -2.3pts.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 58pts, -23.15pts.

Win some, lose some…but mostly winning.

The one question I’ve been asked more than any other over the years is, I reckon, the one about whether or not I advise continuing to bet when away on holiday.  Going back to my early days of running a portfolio of tipsters, I would place – or at least try to place – every single bet that came through during my weeks off.  You see, I couldn’t bear to think about potentially missing out on a massive pay day from a tipster, the likes of which might only come along once or twice a year if at all.  As it happens, not once did I come back from holiday thinking the effort and aggravation had been worth it.  And it is effort and aggravation, waiting for emails to come through before heading off down to the beach or out for lunch, never really switching off and certainly not benefiting from the mental break from normal day to day life that a holiday should bring.

So after a couple of years I resolved to just forget about betting when I was away with the family.  Switch off the laptop or resolve to leave it at home, or better still find somewhere with no WiFi to avoid temptation.  Since doing that, holidays are much better, relaxed and beneficial.  The wife and kids, although never saying anything, probably appreciate it too.

Last week however, I came perilously close to missing out big time, but after totting up the weekend’s results and returns I have to admit I had to laugh.  You see, my holiday cottage for the week was a Friday changeover, which meant I was back home Friday evening and back betting on the Saturday.  It was an interesting day.

As I checked the MVS results, I was ruing my luck and wishing I’d gone away Saturday to Saturday – 9 bets, 9 losers.  Yes, that’s right – N.I.N.E.  Typical, I thought.  And then I checked the results for Northern Monkey…

Over 33 points profit.

That’s an ROC of 41.25% – in one day!  A day I could so very easily have missed.  It was a case of wishing I’d travelled back from holibobs on the Saturday to thanking my lucky stars I hadn’t.

There is a small twist in the tale.  Golf Insider also had a 14/1 winner over the weekend.  Trouble is of course, with the bets being issued during the week, I wasn’t on it.  The week really had been a case of you win some, you lose some.

Portfolio performance for August to date:

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 27.28%, ROC 7.54%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI 1.1%, ROC 0.17%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 18pts, +14.325pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 30pts, +51.4pts.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 69.25pts, +8.85pts.

Football Service 1: n/a

Golf Insider: Staked 16pts, -16pts.

MVS: Staked 37pts, -4.75pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 29.25pts, +28.777pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 12.75pts, +2.21pts.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 39pts, -20.95pts.

Wow! 40/1, then a 14/1, and then a 20/1??!! Just Wow!

Yup, between them Bet Alchemist and Racing Service 1 tore it up at the Goodwood Festival last week. I can’t say that Glorious Goodwood is a meeting that strikes me down with pre-Festival excited anticipation in the way that Cheltenham say, does.  I’ve no memories of spectacular wins and sure, the course is obviously set in a beautiful part of the world, but somehow it just leaves me a little cold.

Not now.  It’s amazing what a couple of big winners can do to your mindset.  By the time the winner of the last race on Saturday was being tended to in the winner’s enclosure, I was wishing the meeting could go on in to this week!  I really can’t remember backing many 40/1 winners on the nags, but RS1 tipped one up last week, and how sweet it was when it came home in front.

I feel the need to espouse the virtues of RS1, a relatively recent addition to the portfolio.  Look, I know that banging in big-priced winners is always going to make you feel good about a tipster, and it’s likely that had I started to follow at a time that coincided with a losing run, I’d be feeling a whole lot different.  But that admission aside, there is so much to like about the service.

Interesting write-ups, odds that stand up, bets on races that aren’t going to send the bookies into paroxysms of panic and closing your accounts quicker than you can say “account restriction”.  A weekly update, blog posts and an ‘Eyecatcher’ angle…I do wonder how this service went underneath my radar for so long.  Crikey, it’s even made me warm to the Glorious Goodwood meeting.

No post next week, folks.  I’m away on my holibobs and I refuse to take my laptop.  Nope.  I’m going to take a few books, more bottles of wine, and sit back and not even think about betting.

See you in a fortnight.

Portfolio performance for August to date:

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 21.63%, ROC 3.15%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 2, Golf Insider): ROI -16.89%, ROC -0.94%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 15pts, +14.825pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 26pts, +55.4pts.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 23pts, -0.77pts.

Football Service 1: n/a

Golf Insider: Staked 7.5pts, -7.5pts.

MVS: Staked 19pts, -2.5pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 19.5pts, -4.023pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 2.25pts, +1.8pts.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 26pts, -20.7pts.

July Review

After a decent but unspectacular June it was great to see the ‘Main’ portfolio follow up with an excellent July.

There were eight services in action, of which five turned a profit.  Four of those five generated a high return.  Of the three that ended in a loss for the month, only one – Football Service 2 – underperformed significantly.

The star of the July show was undoubtedly MVS (Lite).  I seem to remember that midsummer a couple of years ago was a real golden period for this service and certainly July 2019 has been a month that has produced a rich harvest.  A significant part of the profit was made across just two days of multiple selections that all came in which meant that anyone following the ‘Multiples’ strategy must have been richly rewarded.

I wrote last month of a “torrid” time for Northern Monkey, and so it is really good to report that July has been a much better month for my long-termer.  I could repeat that last sentence for Racing Service 3, and it would be just as true.

Bet Alchemist came good too and is finding some real consistency at present.

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 18.59%, ROC 10.04%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI -18.18%, ROC -2.13%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 39pts, +17.625pts, ROI 45.19%, ROC 17.62%.

Racing Service 1: Staked 53pts, +7.15pts, ROI 13.49%, ROC 3.62%

Football Lay Profits: Staked 26.6pts, -3.7pts, ROI -13.9%, ROC -1.85%

Football Service 1: n/a

Golf Insider: Staked 59.5pts, -13.1pts, ROI -22.01%, ROC -3.27%.

MVS: Staked 71pts, +32.75pts, ROI 46.12%, ROC 36.38%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 61.25pts, +19.203pts, ROI 31.35%, ROC 24%.

Football Service 2: Staked 37.5pts, -5.165pts, ROI -13.77%, ROC -12.91%.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 92.25pts, +22.937, ROI 24.86%, ROC 16.38%.

Sick to the stomach…

Nope, not because I’d backed a 50/1 shot that finished a nose second after missing the break out of the stalls, finding itself in a pocket and hemmed in by the rail coming around the home turn, the jockey dropping the whip and then stumbling when leading inside the final furlong.  I mean literally….sick to the stomach.  A bug.  A virus. Food poisoning – whatever.  The outcome was the same and I’ve been knocked sideways.

So apologies, but it means I’m behind on my betting and my figures, so those will have to wait until the next post when I’ll sum everything up.  I’ve no idea how the last few days would have gone.  I’ve just lay in bed, moaning and griping to anyone who’d listen (which was no-one), feeling as if my time was up.

Yesterday however, although not still back to normal, I was at least able to put some generally cognitive thoughts together, and my mind wandered towards Northern Monkey.  Why NMP in particular, I’ve no idea, but I got to remembering how it was when I joined up with the service, some years ago now.

It was the one time when I’ve joined a tipster and have immediately gone on a pretty significant losing run.  Sure, there have been times when I’ve signed up to a new service and lost a bit over the first couple of months or so, but this was different.  This was a proper drawdown.

I remember thinking many times that I would quit.  That this guy didn’t know what he was doing and consequently I was losing good money after bad.  I honestly don’t quite know how I managed to stick with it.  Probably some sort of pig-headedness or perhaps other tipsters I was following at the time were performing well, making the NMP losses easier to bear.  But stick with it I did, and I’ve reaped the rewards year after year since, with really solid profits banked.  Sure, there have been flat spells and losing runs (including a pretty severe recent drawdown) but ultimately it’s come up with the goods.

Anyway, I’m thinking that the largest psychological hurdle to overcome when following tipsters, presents itself when you first sign up and things immediately go pear-shaped.  You’ve built up no trust in the service and you’re losing money; that’s a tough spot to be in.  It means it is essential to fully prepare yourself, to read and re-read reviews, to properly set up a betting bank and to brace yourself for the worst.  Do all that and you have a chance.  Don’t, and you could make a really bad, emotionally-based decision which means you miss out on making good money for many years to come.

Right, I’m off for a glass of Lucozade (the old-fashioned fizzy stuff, not this modern, new-fangled Sports drink malarkey) and a Rich Tea biscuit (other incredibly bland and largely tasteless biccies that immediately collapse when you dunk them in a cuppa, are available).

The three ‘P’s – Patience and Perseverance = Profit.

If you’ve been reading the Bet Diary recently you’ll have noted how difficult things have been for Northern Monkey recently.  A sharp and deep drawdown has been to the sufferance of all followers, and it’s never nice when it happens.  And you know what?  I reckon there’s likely to be some who have decided to quit, or at the very least reduce stakes, perhaps convincing themselves that the edge that has been proven over the last few years has all but disappeared.

Now, just as one swallow does not a summer make, one big pay day does not a drawdown wipe…or something…  But I’ll tell you something.  A really nice winner or two takes the edge off the pain and helps restore any wavering faith.  And that is exactly what happened for Northern Monkey on Saturday.

The day coughed up just over 19 points of lovely, sweet Northern profit.  Wayne went in big on Tis Marvellous in a competitive sprint at Ascot, backing it with a decent stake on it’s own and doubling it up with a few others.  Tis Marvellous was bloomin’ marvellous, winning easily and landing one of the doubles for what was a timely reminder of Wayne’s skills.  There’s still a way to go before the losses from this losing run are fully recouped, but it’s a very real start to doing just that.

Portfolio performance for July to date:

July is still running pretty smoothly and it was another decent week.  Of the seven services offering bets so far, only one is in the red, Football Service 2, who in direct contrast to Northern Monkey, had a torrid Saturday.

Favourable mentions and nods of recognition to MVS (Lite) and Racing Service 3 too, for their efforts last week.

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 16.32%, ROC 2.32%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI 60%, ROC 1.81%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 14pts, +11pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 28pts, +0.775pts.

Football Lay Profits: n/a

Football Service 1: n/a

Golf Insider: Staked 29pts, +17.4pts.

MVS: Staked 33pts, +8.25pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 31.75pts, +14.653pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 18.5pts, -4.74pts.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 46.75pts, +3.75pts.

New exchange friendly racing tipster to add?

Just a very quick update this week as time feels like a valuable commodity.  Interestingly however, a chunk of that time has been writing up a review that SBC members will shortly have access too.  The review is of a horse racing service that can be followed very profitably with both the bookmakers and the Exchanges.  I’m giving serious consideration to adding into the ‘Broxchange’ portfolio, so watch this space.

Portfolio performance for July 1st – 7th

A strong week to start July off, with five of the seven services in action producing a profit.  The two to fail to do so were the two strugglers from last month, Northern Monkey and Racing Service 3.  Let’s hope their fortunes reverse soon.

The only service to really excel was Bet Alchemist who knocked in a lovely 16/1 winner on Saturday.

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 21.15%, ROC 2.32%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI 40.68%, ROC 0.61%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 5pts, +12pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 11pts, +5.6pts.

Football Lay Profits: n/a

Football Service 1: n/a

Golf Insider: Staked 14.5pts, +5.9pts.

MVS: Staked 14pts, +3.25pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 15.75pts, -2.125pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 8.5pts, +0.69pts.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 17.75pts, -3.375pts.