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GOLF: Close but no cigar at The Masters

Heading into the final round last night and all the eyes in my household (well, mine anyway) were firmly fixed on Augusta debutant and Weekly Golf Value pick Will Zalatoris, lying in second place when his round started.  After two birdies over the first two holes, I was beginning to get a little excited, I don’t mind telling you, and when leader (and ultimate winner) Matsuyama dropped an early shot, well…

Unforunately, despite playing well, Zalatoris couldn’t ever quite get close enough, despite playing well.  Backed each way at 66/1 however, we picked up a nice place return.  Jon Rahm, although never positioned to win, had a storming final round to also ensure a place return and an overall profit on the week for WGV, but frustratingly, Bryan Harman dropped a shot at the 17th, and in the process dropped himself out of the finishing frame and a return.  The frustration was doubled knowing he was also a pick for PGA Profit.

The latter service also generated a profit over the week by picking Patrick Reed and gaining a place return in addition to Harman.  Sadly, it was a blank for Golf Insider although I placed only the Outright tournament bets, deciding to leave the First Round Leader and group picks.  From what I can gather, I believe that ultimately saved me some points, so all good there.

Golf Insider (200pts bank): Staked 95pts, -42.035pts, roi -44.24%, roc -21.01%, High 14.95pts, CDD: -60.715pts, Max DD: -60.715pts

 PGA Profit (500): Staked 280.5pts, +104.93pts, roi 37.4%, roc 20.98%, High +178.5pts, CDD: -73.57pts, Max DD: -83.77pts

 Weekly Golf Value (1,000): 2,465pts, +1,333.69pts, roi 54.1%, roc 66.68%, High 1,336.09pts, CDD: -6.6pts, Max DD: -93.25pts.

Golf portfolio: ROI 38.08%, ROC 33.33%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

 

 

RACING: Looking forward to Liverpool.

There really is very little to report on from this past week’s betting on the nags.  I guess it’s the nature of the beast when it comes to blogging, but when things are just ticking over nicely, there’s not a great deal to comment on.

And that is where we are at presently…ticking along nicely.  The most remarkable thing to happen has been a good run of results for Precision Value which has eaten nicely into its drawdown, getting us close to being in positive territory for the year.

Things should get a lot more interesting from tomorrow when the Grand National meeting at Aintree begins.  Always a slight feeling of ‘after the Lord Mayor’s show’ I feel, when only a couple of weeks or so ago we had Cheltenham.  But the quality of racing is high, and after a race or two to warm up, I tend to end up really enjoying the meeting.

Let’s hope it’s a good one.

Bet Alchemist: Staked 110pts, +18.81pts, roi 17.1%, roc 18.81%, High: 24.135pts, CDD: -5.325pts, Max DD: -9pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 140.5pts, +30.218pts, roi 21.5%, roc 30.21%, High: 30.218pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: -27.028pts

Precision Value:  Staked 219pts, -2.262pts, roi -1.03%, roc -1.13%, High: 5.989pts, CDD: -8.251pts, Max DD: -24.834pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 22.5pts, +9.812pts, roi 43.6%, roc 19.62%, High: 12.312pts, CDD: -2.5pts, Max DD: -8pts

Racing Portfolio: ROI 16.46%, ROC 16.88%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

SPORTS: Hitting all realistic targets and ambitions.

When it comes to betting on sports such as football, darts, boxing, etc., it is hugely important for the sake of our own betting sanity that we set ourselves realistic targets and ambitions.  It is simply not possible to hit the sort of ROI levels that a top horse racing service or golf tipster can hit.  The markets are very different, as are the dynamics.

I don’t know the exact figure, but I do know that taking all bets struck since the start of this year from the services in the ‘Sports’ section of the portfolio, the average of prices I’ve taken is easily under Evens.  Odds on, in other words.  So in this context, the overall ROI we’ve seen of 5% to date, is both excellent and meets exactly the target I have set for these tipsters (collectively).

I did think actually, at the start of they year, that attempting to hit a 5% ROI target might be a little too ambitious.  I’ve mentioned more than once that the long term ROI of The Poacher lies around the 4-5% mark, and here we are now with this service returning around 10%.  This has been countered of course by the relative underperformance to date of Premium Boxing Tips and Scottish Football Income Booster, but I’m as certain as it can be when it comes to betting that we will go through a period at some point this year, when these positions are reversed.

So far though, as we move into the second quarter of 2021, so good.

Sports Service 1 (40pts): Staked 24pts, -5.664pts, roi -23.6%, roc -14.16%, High 0pts, CDD: -5.664pts, Max DD: -6.264pts.

Sports Service 2 (30): Staked 14.25pts, +5.265pts, roi 36.94%, roc 17.55%, High: 5.265pts, CDD: -0pts, Max DD: -0.7pts.

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 48pts, -11.769pts, roi -24.51%, roc -11.76%, High: 4.394pts, CDD: -16.123pts, Max DD: -17.984pts.

The Poacher (40): Staked 138.5pts, +14.095pts, roi 10.17%, roc 35.23%, High: 14.183pts, CDD: -0.088pts, Max DD: -9.645pts

Sports Portfolio: ROI 5.06%, ROC 6.28%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

GOLF: A tough week, but the Masters is coming!

Difficult week this week just gone for our golfing tipsters.  Between them we had just the one place as Golf Insider came closest to breaking even.  Not a dickie bird of a return for the other two.

But let’s consign the past few days to the betting dustbin, and instead focus our attention on the glory of The Masters which starts at Augusta this week.  It really is a fantastic tournament.  I love watching on the Sunday evening whether I have a player in contention or not.  The course is stunningly beautiful, the sky seems always to be crystal clear and as blue as can be, the birds singing…lovely stuff.

It’s a tournament that has been kind to me over the years.  I’ve backed the winner on a number of occasions.  Nick Faldo’s psychological dismantling of Greg Norman on the final day was the first bet on golf I’ve ever had.  Bubba Watson winning more recently too, was a highlight.  Can’t wait.

Finally, for those of you who listen to the SBC betting podcast, you can listen to Pete and I chew the golf betting fat in today’s latest edition.  And if you don’t listen to the podcast, why the blazers not!?!  Seriously, you need to stick it in your ears and have at it!

Golf Insider (200pts bank): Staked 90pts, -37.035pts, roi -41.15%, roc -18.51%, High 14.95pts, CDD: -51.985pts, Max DD: -55.215pts

 PGA Profit (500): Staked 258.5pts, +94.73pts, roi 36.64%, roc 18.94%, High +178.5pts, CDD: -83.77pts, Max DD: -83.77pts

 Weekly Golf Value (1,000): 2,295pts, +1,264.09pts, roi 55.08%, roc 63.2%, High 1,124.85pts, CDD: -72pts, Max DD: -93.25pts.

Golf portfolio: ROI 38.31%, ROC 31.24%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

RACING: New highs for Bet Alchemist and Racing Service 1.

After a slow start to the year the racing tipsters have largely run into some strong form.  Cheltenham proved to be the catalyst, as I had hoped it might.  We’ve covered the sterling performance of Northern Monkey at the Festival but it should be noted that Racing Service 1 didn’t let us down, either.  Although Bet Alchemist didn’t generate too much during the four days, its form just prior and since has been good with a regular supply of decent priced winners.

As a result, both Bet Alchemist and RS1 have hit new profit highs for the year to date, as has the racing section as a whole.  From running along in negative territory for much of the first three months of the year, the ROI now stands at a very decent 16.9%.  It just goes to show how quickly things can turn around.

Such a reversal in fortune would be much appreciated by Precision Value whose form feels typified by the number of second places its currently hitting – three, only yesterday!  As a rule, the horses PV are tipping are running well enough, but not quite well enough to get in front when the line arrives.  No doubt at some point this trend will reverse and we’ll get a prolific run of winners, many of them prevailing by heads and short heads.  We’re certainly due.

It all means as we hit the end of Month 3, that overall the portfolio is running at an ROI of 18.28%.  I’d take that, any day of the week!

 

Bet Alchemist (100pts): Staked 99pts, +24.135pts, roi 24.37%, roc 24.13%, High: 22.385pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: -9pts.

Northern Monkey Punter (100): Staked 133.75pts, +22.977pts, roi 17.17%, roc 22.97%, High: 27.874pts, CDD: -4.897pts, Max DD: -27.028pts

Precision Value (200):  Staked 210pts, -14.012pts, roi -6.67%, roc -7%, High: 5.989pts, CDD: -20.001pts, Max DD: -24.834pts.

Racing Service 1 (50): Staked 22.5pts, +12.312pts, roi 54.72%, roc 24.62%, High: 12.312pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: -8pts.

Racing Portfolio: ROI 16.9%, ROC 16.18%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

SPORTS: A new high line for The Poacher.

The sports portfolio is very distinctly cut in half at the moment.  Of the four services, two are doing extremely well (Sports Service 2 and The Poacher) and the other two not so well.  This is normal, and I’ve no doubt that at some point in the months ahead the roles of each will be reversed.  That’s the idea of spreading the risk and diversification – you look for the profits of some to balance out and then provide more than the losses from others.  That as a whole the sports section is still running at an overall ROI around the 5% mark means it is meeting expectations.

The Poacher in particular has had a good week, reaching a new high water line for the year before yesterday’s losing tip.  I can’t emphasise how easy it is to get on.  It’s not infrequent that the advised price is a few ticks lower than advised by the time I got to the exchanges to get on, but I just leave an order for the recommended price and most of the time it is matched before kick off.  I’ll “keep” the order when the game goes in-play too, and have no real concerns about time erosion before the order is matched.  Occasionally I miss a bet if it’s a + on the Asian Handicap, but most are not and I’m not going to fret about missing the odd bet here or there…and it really is only the odd bet.

So, all good, and just a case of keepin’ on truckin’…

Sports Service 1 (40pts): Staked 23pts, -6.264pts, roi -27.23%, roc -15.66%, High 0pts, CDD: -6.264pts, Max DD: -6.264pts.

Sports Service 2 (30): Staked 14.25pts, +5.265pts, roi 36.94%, roc 17.55%, High: 5.265pts, CDD: -0pts, Max DD: -0.7pts.

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 43pts, -10.63pts, roi -24.72%, roc -10.63%, High: 4.394pts, CDD: -14.984pts, Max DD: -14.984pts.

The Poacher (40): Staked 125pts, +13.183pts, roi 10.54%, roc 32.95%, High: 14.183pts, CDD: -1pts, Max DD: -9.645pts

Sports Portfolio: ROI 4.93%, ROC 5.62%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

GOLF: Disaster averted at the last!

It was a busy week of golf betting with no fewer than three tournaments being played across the two tours, and for much of it things looked pretty threatening.  If I tell you that between the three tipsters, we had 39 separate bets and that only one ended up finishing in the frame, you can see where I’m coming from.

But, all that said, the one that did come in the frame was Billy Horschel who ended up winning the WGC matchplay tournie at odds of 66/1 (many would have got 70/1) for Weekly Golf Value, which in turn meant that I made a profit on the week.  So, another winner for WGV and their annus miraculis continues for now!

To be honest, the standard of the golf in the final yesterday meant that the hours the two players got to get around really dragged, despite having the prospect of a good win to be excited about.  In some respects, the late night didn’t really feel worth it. I couldn’t help think this morning I would have been better going to bed at a normal time and finding out the result today, it really was that poor and slow.  Not a great advert for golf, but ultimately, who cares when the outcome is a 66/1 winner?

This might be  good time to point out that if Weekly Golf Value is of interest to you (and if it’s not, why not!?!), the SBC are running a member offer this week of the first month subscription of just £10.  You can read more here: SBC Weekly Golf Value Offer.

Golf Insider (200pts bank): Staked 85pts, -36.535pts, roi -47.68%, roc -20.26%, High 14.95pts, CDD: -55.215pts, Max DD: -55.215pts

 PGA Profit (500): Staked 241.5pts, +111.73pts, roi 46.26%, roc 22.34%, High +178.5pts, CDD: -66.77pts, Max DD: -66.77pts

 Weekly Golf Value (1,000): 2,223pts, +1,336.09pts, roi 60.1%, roc 66.8%, High 1,124.85pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: -93.25pts.

Golf portfolio: ROI 43.38%, ROC 33.95%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

RACING: Further reflections on NMP’s Cheltenham

I don’t know about anyone else, but this week definitely has an ‘after the Lord Mayor’s show’ feel to it.  With no flat racing until Friday, Northern Monkey is taking a very well-earned break from tipping, and I can’t blame him.  Cheltenham must have been a pretty full on experience for him, and that’s before taking into account the rollercoaster of emotions that we all go through during the Festival itself.

It certainly was a good week for NMP.  You can’t argue with over 43 points profit at an ROI of 136%.  It feels as if each year at the Festival is a good one for Wayne, and he certainly builds up to it over a fair old period of time.  It can be easy at times to question the wisdom of rolling up a selection on the all weather at Southwell with a horse ante post for Cheltenham, especially when the horse running at Southwell loses, but when you see the potential returns during Festival week add up it is easy to alter your thinking.  Even more so when the results run the right way.

What has been nice is that NMP followed up Cheltenham with a good day on Saturday, landing two win singles and a double for another 9 points profit.  At this point I was going to drop Wayne a quick email and ask for his advice on what numbers I should pick on the lottery, such has been his recent form!  It shouldn’t be forgotten that prior to Cheltenham, NMP was finding the going pretty sticky.  The last week or so has shown just how quickly things can turn around.  We’ve gone from being about 27 points down to 27 points up in a fortnight, give or take.  Certainly something to remember the next time we have a bad spell.

Bet Alchemist (100pts): Staked 96pts, +22.385pts, roi 23.31%, roc 22.38%, High: 22.385pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: -9pts.

Northern Monkey Punter (100): Staked 122pts, +25.874pts, roi 21.2%, roc 25.87%, High: 27.874pts, CDD: -2pts, Max DD: -27.028pts

Precision Value (200):  Staked 192pts, -9.012pts, roi -4.69%, roc -4.5%, High: 5.989pts, CDD: -15.001pts, Max DD: -24.834pts.

Racing Service 1 (50): Staked 20.5pts, +8.562pts, roi 41.76%, roc 17.12%, High: 11.25pts, CDD: -2.688pts, Max DD: -8pts.

Racing Portfolio: ROI 17.14%, ROC 15.21%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

 

SPORTS: Chugging along very nicely indeed, thank you.

It’s been a very good week for The Poacher.  You may remember a couple of weeks or so ago I’d commented on how this service had started 2021 on fire, but was going through a rougher patch.  It was framed in the context that the ROI had reverted much closer to expected levels and that we should in no way be alarmed at what was in my view, simply a “correction”.  Well, as is so typical when it comes to betting, The Poacher has had a good run and from the perspective of my personal figures, from reaching a drawdown figure around the 9.5 point mark, I’m now back to within a couple of points of the previous high water line.

The current ROI (for me) now stands at a lofty 9.5%, once again a figure considerably higher than the 4-5% historical long term roi.  If anything shows how we should manage our own expectations, not getting carried away when things are going swimmingly, and not growing despondent when things are not going so well, surely it is this.

As for the sports portfolio as a whole, I’m now tracking along at exactly the level I aim for long term, ie. an ROI around the 5% mark.  The ROI over time is never going to be as high as it is with golf or the horses, but if a 5% ROI figure can be maintained over the long term, then it’s happy days indeed.

Sports Service 1 (40pts): Staked 17pts, -5.39pts, roi -31.7%, roc -13.47%, High 0pts, CDD: -5.39pts, Max DD: -6.13pts.

Sports Service 2 (30): Staked 14.25pts, +5.265pts, roi 36.94%, roc 17.55%, High: 5.265pts, CDD: -0pts, Max DD: -0.7pts.

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 33pts, -8.699pts, roi -26.36%, roc -8.69%, High: 4.394pts, CDD: -13.093pts, Max DD: -13.86pts.

The Poacher (40): Staked 112.5pts, +10.689pts, roi 9.5%, roc 26.72%, High: 12.955pts, CDD: -2.266pts, Max DD: -9.645pts

Sports Portfolio: ROI 5.09%, ROC 5.08%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

GOLF: An overdue reality check.

All in all, last week’s betting went swimmingly with both the racing and sports elements of the portfolio making good profits.  However, over the weekend we had a bit of a reality check with the golf.

This had to be expected.  In the same way as I warned a few weeks ago that the ROI being generated by The Poacher was unsustainable, the golf had reached the point where a correction had grown overdue.  This was the week when that happened, to an extent.

Between the three services, we backed something like 23/24 golfers with only two or three overlapping.  Two finished in the places; an in-running bet from PGA Profit at 12/1 which had to share its final place position with a fair few others meaning the return was minimal, and a 125/1 shot from Weekly Golf Value.  I actually ended up backing the place part of the latter bet in the Top 10 market and was unable to secure the odds I would have liked to.

So, not the best of weeks but if you look at the overall golfing ROI for the year to date in the figures below you will see it still sits at a lofty 43.75%.  This is still some way above the level I would expect long term, so all needs to be placed into perspective.  I think too that we have been spoiled a little recently, and weekends like this one are to be expected on a fairly regular basis.

Golf Insider (200pts bank): Staked 73pts, -28.535pts, roi -39.08%, roc -14.26%, High 14.95pts, CDD: -43.215pts, Max DD: -43.215pts

 PGA Profit (500): Staked 215.5pts, +137.73pts, roi 63.91%, roc 27.54%, High +178.5pts, CDD: -40.77pts, Max DD: -65pts

 Weekly Golf Value (1,000): 1,875pts, +1,034.49pts, roi 55.17%, roc 51.72%, High 1,124.85pts, CDD: -90.36pts, Max DD: -93.25pts.

Golf portfolio: ROI 43.75%, ROC 29.21%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown