I’m very aware that a number of readers have been good enough to email me over the last week/ten days or so with questions and comments. I will be getting back to each email and address questions within these posts, so please bear with me if you are one of those that have. There was no Bet Diary post last week, as I was given the starkest of lessons in just how much we take for granted good health, how precious life is, and how short it can be.
All of which meant that the day-to-day betting went out of the window for a few days. The weekend just gone was back to normal, and it proved to be the most profitable of 2024 so far, dragging the overall ROI up to a level of respectability, if still lagging a bit behind where I would want and expect it to be long-term. This despite the only bets that were placed during the week – on golf – proving to be fruitless.
2024 Betting: Total ROI 6.8%
Still rattling along in the lead of my 2024 tipster and strategy league table are the Value Bets taken from the Bookie Bashing Bet/Combo Bets Tracker. Occasionally you see bets that carry BIG value, and not always those gained by Odds Boosts or the like. Take this Sunday when a bet on the corners market offered on a Spanish Liga 1 match was landed, sourced from the William Hill #YourOdds offers. Not only are these the sort of bets that online books like to see you take, but when the perceived value is at 115%+ and the price at 2/1, it means a sizable stake. They don’t all win of course, but over time I’m more than confident these will make a decent profit, and so it is proving this year so far. I’ve taken 81 bets since January 1st, many using cash at the shops, and others online as described above. My only filter is that I need to see a minimum perceived value of 105%. 32 winning bets later, and the ROI is at a ridiculous 34% and bank growth of 33%. I appreciate the sample is very small. I appreciate that level of ROI is clearly unsustainable (I’m hoping for 5-6% long term). But just now, I’m enjoying the ride.
Bookie Bashing Value/Combo Bets Tracker: Staked 1,449pts, +494.43pts, ROI: 34.12%, ROC: 32.96%
In second place is the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker, and the strategy of putting four teams in Lucky 15s, and placing 5 Lucky 15s down per day. This clearly provides high turnover, with the aim of reducing variance. So far the tactic has worked extremely well, and Saturday saw four teams come in, including one at a price of 15/2. My natural caution means that my approach is to look to have one team at odds of 3/1 or higher in each set of four, and three at any price up to 3/1; very similar to the way I look to structure the Lucky 15s I stick down on the horses (albeit at different odds bands). The full house on Saturday landed just over 22 points profit, with all the other Lucky 15s generating a very small loss between them. This very neatly illustrates the strategy – look to tick over, making a little, losing a little, waiting for the big win which will inevitably come if you give it long enough.
Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 2,265pts, +413pts, ROI 18.23%, ROC 27.53%
The last few months have been a testing period for Sys Analyst and I’m still a fair way from my last previous high which was back in the autumn. But, to say there are signs of a recovery is something of an understatement as a consistent supply of winners in 2024 sees me rattling along at an ROI for the year of 50%! In an email to members this week, Allan pointed to an above average numbers of near misses that has badly affected returns, whilst acknowledging that this is all part of the game and at other times the breaks go for you and not against you. This is where experience in any tipster you follow can be invaluable. An ability to adapt, to continue to trust in the methodology, to not panic and remain calm is paramount.
Allan lowers his stakes a little whenever a particularly bad run hits, but from this week he is raising them back up to the “normal” level. Reading his email made me think of old favourite The Value Bettor, and how focus on tipping realistically achievable prices in markets holding sufficient liquidity is necessary as the bookmaking environment we’re operating in is so poor. This one factor is shaping how honest tipsters work. Those that are happy to simply quote headline prices which no-one is going to be able to either get consistently or if they somehow manage to, keep their accounts open for any length of time, can get in the bin. Those like Allan, and many others monitored by the SBC and who find themselves in the Hall of Fame, are to be cherished. This quote from Allan’s email sums it all up: “I have evolved the service continually to change with the times, and these days, it’s OK to bet on the big races early, but the low class, low hanging fruit type races may be easy to make a big profit on, but no good for winners as they are account closers.”
Sys Analyst: Staked 504.9pts, +254.04pts, ROI: 50.31%, ROC: 16.93%
That’s all for now. Next post will see more results and a question answered on dealing with a busted bankroll.