Bet Diary Email Updates

Follow Rowan's Profitable Betting Quest

Receive each of Rowan's Bet Diary posts direct to your inbox and never miss an update on his profitable tipster portfolio.

Enter your email address below to receive the latest from Rowan each week:

We won't send you spam. You can also unsubscribe at any time. Powered by ConvertKit

RACING: Finding the going heavy.

Short post today as to be honest, there’s not a great deal to remark upon.  No big wins.  No real excitement.  Just one of those periods when not a lot seems to happen other than a steady drip of small losses each day.

It does feel like the quality of racing is really pretty poor at the moment.  When I see National Hunt Flat race meetings at Lingfield, and observations from the likes of Wayne at Northern Monkey that a day’s racing is “utter garbage”, and the next day “slightly better, but still garbage”, then I think we know where we are.  This is the very depth of winter.  It’s cold, wet, and miserable.  If I was a horse, not sure I’d want to go out into the elements to do my thing.  Would you?

Bet Alchemist (100pts): Staked 7pts, -0.85pts, roi -12.14%, roc -0.85%, High: 1.15pts, CDD: -2pts, Max DD: -2pts.

Northern Monkey (100): Staked 10.5pts, -6.092pts, roi -58.01%, roc -6.09%, High: 1.687pts, CDD: -7.77pts, Max DD: -7.77pts

Precision Value (200):  Staked 16pts, -7.288pts, roi -45.55%, roc -3.64%, High: 1.792pts, CDD: -9.08pts, Max DD: -10pts.

Racing Service 1 (50): Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts, roi -100%, roc -3%, High: 0pts, CDD: -1.5pts, Max DD: -1.5pts.

Racing Portfolio: ROI -47.67%, ROC -3.39%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

 

GOLF: A late night and a big win!

There are three things that make me grumpy – lack of sleep, being hungry, and Arsenal losing.  Arsenal didn’t play yesterday, we had a lovely Sunday roast at home, but that lack of sleep thing.  It’s got me this morning.  You see, the problem is, my internal clock doesn’t need much to knock if off sync.  If I go to bed at roughly the same time, read for half an hour or so, and then lights out…I’m generally fine.  Knock that routine out though, and that’s me done for the night.  It’ll be the wee small hours before I finally doze off.

Last night I made the fatal error of switching over to the golf, instead of going to bed after the City/Palace game on the telly.  One of Weekly Golf Value’s men, Kevin Na (60/1) was within a couple of shots of the lead.  I’ll just watch this hole, I thought.  Two hours later, bedtime long gone, and I’m still watching.  Hence, this morning, I’m grumpy.

Imagine how grumpy I would have been had not Kevin Na gone on to win!?!  Got to admit, the winnings have taken the edge off my grumpiness.  But I need to learn a lesson here.  If I’m going to stay up watching golf on a Sunday evening, Mondays are going to be a nightmare for the rest of the household.  Heaven help them.

I can’t do it.  I really can’t.  So, I’m resolving myself to NOT switch over “just to see how it’s going”, each Sunday evening.  Not until next week, anyway.

On a serious note, what a start to 2021 it’s been for WGV.  Two winners from two tournaments.  Trouble was of course, I wasn’t on last week’s winner (I was through Golf Insider, but not WGV).  The figures are just daft – the ROC for Weekly Golf Value wouldn’t be that far off 100%, just two tournaments in.  That the win strike rate for this service lies somewhere between 1 and 2% tells us in pretty stark terms that we need to enjoy this little spell whilst it’s here, because who knows when the next win will come.  And that’s golf betting in a nutshell.  So I’m steeling myself, knowing full well that this can’t continue.  Can it?

Golf Insider (200pts): Staked 10pts, +9.95pts, roi 99.5%, roc 4.98%, CDD -5.05pts, Max DD -5.05pts.

PGA Profit (500): Staked 48pts, -48pts, roi -100%, roc -9.6%, CDD -48pts, Max DD -48pts.

Weekly Golf Value (1,000): Staked 126pts, +543.6pts, roi 431.42%, roc 54.36%, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: 0pts.

Golf portfolio: ROI 182.84%, ROC 16.57%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

 

 

Football, boxing and the arrers – what we’re betting on in 2021.

We’ve seen over the past couple of days that we’ve increased our golf betting exposure and tailored the racing services to suit.  Now we look at other sports and tipsters to bet on.

Starting with football, and there’s no need to change anything when it comes to Scottish Football Income Booster.  It’s perfectly possible to use the exchanges on a regular basis, and it’s low workload.  Although results through the early part of this rather strange season were a little underwhelming, there have been recent signs of a pick up in form, and as things gradually return to some sort of normality in the football world over the months ahead (hopefully, fingers crossed, etc.), I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see this service excel.

The second footie tipster I’m following is SBC Premium service The Poacher.  Having built up a live proofed record by offering the picks for free, The Poacher has just turned pro’ and is now operating a paid subscription service administered by the SBC.  This has become a proven and tested path to professional tipping for a number of tipsters and the set up makes sense.  Let the SBC do their thing when it comes to the mechanics, let the tipster concentrate on tipping.

The proofed record to date shows an ROI of 3.99%.  Doesn’t sound a lot, but when we consider that we’re betting in very liquid and efficient markets, utilizing Asian Handicaps and goal lines, a 4% ROI is not to be sniffed at.  Getting on should provide no problem, and importantly, we’re concentrating on Exchange use for the bets.  A decent turnover without placing countless bets per day, it ticks all the boxes for me.

Boxing is a new sport for me to bet on.  I’ve been following the progress of Sports Service 1 for some time, feeling that long term, here is a tipster with a demonstrable edge in a sport that would provide my betting with real diversification, which is never a bad thing.  In the overall scheme of things, I’m hoping this, and old darting favourite Sports Service 2, will balance out (in terms of diversification) my doubling down on golf.  High strike rate/short odds in two different sports to balance out the low strike rate/long odds associated with golf.  That’s the theory anyway.

SS2 is a service I’m very familiar with and it must now be one of the longest running services monitored by the SBC.  There’s a lot to be said for tipsters who have survived and flourished for so long.  Back in the day, when SS2 was relatively new, the bookies were not as clued up when it came to pricing up the markets and SS2 made hay.  Naturally, as interest in and the popularity of darts as a sport grew, largely as a result of Sky’s marketing, the bookies got their act together and suddenly finding value became a trickier proposition.  SS2 adapted though, and although there have been times when that adaptation process seemed to have a direct impact on its bottom line performance, ultimately it would always bounce back and press on successfully.

So there we have it.  First results reported on next week.  Until then, stay safe.

 

The Racing Portfolio for 2021 – why these services?

It’s Tuesday, so it must be a Bet Diary post concentrating on horse racing.  I’m not yet clear as to whether doing three posts a week is going to help me remember where I am in the week (which is not so easy during lockdown, as all the days seem to merge into each other) or mean I don’t know if I’m coming or going!  Probably the latter.

I only started betting on the horses again yesterday.  With the freeze that hit large parts of the UK last week, causing a number of meetings to be cancelled, the racing on offer was pretty poor fare.  Add to this the fact I spent much of last week musing over which services to follow this year, and I was quite happy just to let things pass me by.  Subsequently I have no results to report, but I can use this post to outline my decision making process when it came to selecting who to follow this year.

In a nutshell, there are four boxes I identified as wanting to be ticked when it came to my betting on the nags.  They are:

  1. Ease of achieving the advised odds (or at least coming very close to matching them most of the time);
  2. The ability to use the Exchanges – not exclusively, but regularly/frequently;
  3. Protection of bookmaker accounts; and
  4. Workload.

Clearly Points 2 and 3 are not mutually exclusive and one leads in to the other.  The more bets I can place at Betfair or Smarkets, the fewer I have to burden my bookie accounts with.  My policy on this is that should I get a price which is acceptable to me on the exchanges, even if a bookie is offering a higher price, I’ll take it on the exchange.

Let me give an example.  Say I have a Precision Value bet advised at 7/2 (4.5 in decimal odds).  Smarkets is offering 4.6, Bet365 is offering 4/1 (or 5.0).  I’ll take the Smarkets price.

Yes, I’m doing myself out of a not insubstantial level of potential profit (or value, if you prefer) on that individual bet, but my service is telling me 4.5 is a value price.  Taking 4.6 and paying 2% commission on any winnings, the actual price I’m taking is 4.528, ie. a value price.  Meantime, I’m reducing the stress on my Bet365 account.  My logic/hope, is that over time, I’ll make more by maximizing the lifespan of my bookmaker accounts by using them only when it is clearly advantageous to do so, by which I mean if I take the Exchange price, I’m not taking a value price whilst I am if I use the bookmaker.  Make sense?

Workload is a very important factor to take account of, too.  I’ve become a lot more chilled over time about missing bets.  It’s not ideal, but you know what?  Life is too short, and I’ve reached a point where I want to avoid my betting meaning I can’t get on with the rest of life.  If I miss a price because I’m out walking the dog?  So be it.  There will be plenty more bets on the way.

Don’t get me wrong, I’ll do my best to get on as many bets as I possibly can.  All I’m saying is I’m not going to sweat it if I miss a few, which I inevitably will.

How does the portfolio line up then?  You won’t see much real change, to be honest…

  1. Northern Monkey.
  2. Racing Service 1.
  3. Bet Alchemist.
  4. Precision Value.

I agonized over Bet Alchemist.  2020 was a losing year.  They happen, and BA have had one before, from which they bounced back strongly.  In the end, the fact that prices are largely achievable, and only big races/meetings are targeted (making the bets as bookie-friendly as they can be) swung it for me.  They deserve a chance to put 2020 right, through 2021.

There we have it.  First set of results in next Tuesday’s post.  Back tomorrow with a look at the ‘Other Sports’ portfolio, which unlike racing, sees new services engaged.  Exciting times.

A Golf portfolio for 2021 – and a 30/1 winner to get us started!

I mentioned last week there would be some changes made to the Bet Diary, and I meant that in terms of both the services followed and how I report on ongoing performance.

The plan is to split the Bet Diary into three posts each week whenever possible, which ought to be most of the time.  The first, published each Monday, will concentrate on a mini-portfolio of golf tipsters, the second on Tuesdays reporting back on the racing specialists’ performance, and the third on Wednesdays covering what might be called a ‘Football/Other Sports’ section.

Readers of the Bet Diary through 2020 will know that I’ve been following two SBC Premium golfing services, PGA Profit and Golf Insider.  For 2021 I am going to add a third and by doing so, in what is a deliberate move, increase my exposure to golf as a betting medium.  Why?  Well, in a nutshell because prices tend to hold up very well, bookmakers appear more tolerant to their customers betting on golf tournaments, the markets are liquid, and there are a good number of times when even better prices than those quoted are to be found on the exchanges.

There are, as ever, swings to the roundabouts. The reasons for betting more on golf are clear.  But…and it is a big ‘but’…psychologically, betting on golf can really test the mettle of the individual’s mental strength and resolve.  Backing at big prices, which is the norm when it comes to golf betting, leads to longer losing runs and lengthier, more extended periods of drawdown than you might reasonably expect to experience betting on football, tennis, or even horse racing.  Hand on heart, I’m not the sort of person who ‘accepts’ losing particularly well.  Experience over the years has served to improve my mentality hugely, but I’ve had to work at it.  And I mean really work.  As a newbie to betting many years ago, following the wrong services led me to drop tipsters who really shouldn’t have been dropped, and these tended to be those who specialised in finding value at the longer prices in the market.  I’m not nearly so bad now, but still, I’d be lying if I said I didn’t feel  just a touch of trepidation now following three services that fit the low strike rate/big odds profile.

Now, without further ado, let me introduce my third service to this section, another SBC Premium offering – Weekly Golf Value.  You can read all about it and how it works here: https://smartbettingclub.com/weekly-golf-value/.  Perhaps the most important point to note at this stage is that this is a service for which bookmaker accounts are essential.  It finds value in both the win and place part of the each way bet, and for the place part it is often targeting those bookmakers who have extended their place terms to the Top 6 or 8 (or even more on occasions).

One other thing to note, and a change from the way I have followed Golf Insider to this point.  Moving forward I will be using level stakes.  I’ll go into some detail on this in next week’s post, but for now suffice to say that historically, betting to level stakes has increased the levels of GI profitability.

What can we expect from this golf portfolio, then?  I’m imagining a number of losing weeks and months interspersed by surges in profit as a big win is landed.  I’m hopeful that the each way part of many of the bets will serve to smooth things a little, but I’m braced for a few (large) bumps along the way in what should be a very interesting ride.

2021 performance (to date)

With no tournament scheduled for the European Tour, it was all focus on the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawaii for the first week’s golfing action.  And what a start it was for Golf Insider, who picked out tournament winner Harris English (30/1).  I didn’t stay up to watch all the excitement unfold – it was getting late and I need my beauty sleep – so to find out that this morning that Harris won in a play off brightened up what was a pretty wet and dreary Monday morning.  Good grief, I was even nice to the kids over breakfast!  There was also a small return on Justin Thomas (7/1) who finished in the places.

No such luck for PGA Profit and a blank week there.

Finally, just to show that not everything runs smoothly, I have to tell you that I didn’t sign up to Weekly Golf Value until today (Monday).  Who do I see was tipped up for the first PGA comp of 2021?  Yup, you guessed it – Harris English at 30/1!  Ouch.

Golf Insider (200pts): Staked 4pts, +13.2pts, roi 330%, roc 6.6%, CDD 0pts, Max DD 0pts.

PGA Profit (500): Staked 17pts, -17pts, roi -100%, roc -3.4%, CDD -17pts, Max DD -17pts.

Weekly Golf Value (1,000): n/a

Golf portfolio: ROI 59.25%, ROC 1.06%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

 

Happy New Year!

The title says it all.  I really hope you have had a bit of a break over the holiday period and were able to chill a little and take a breather from what feels like incessant bad news.

I have to admit, down in Devon I almost forgot about Covid for a week.  Sure, it wasn’t quite the same in a couple of the pubs, with tables being spread far and wide for social distancing and in one, sheets of plastic between tables too.  But all in all, by the sea and away from it all, it was pretty easy to make something of a mental shift.  It made me realise just how all-pervading concerns and anxieties connected to the pandemic had become ingrained in day to day life.  The health of family and friends, concerns over kids’ education, worries over job security…to so many I reckon these have become such a part of every day living that it’s almost as if you lose awareness of the strain it all puts on mental health.  A week away – and I know how lucky I was to be able to do that with what has happened here in the UK since – just allowed that pressure that had built up to be released.  And that includes around betting, too.  A week out allows you to take stock and plan ahead, and that, I feel, is something that is very easy to miss doing when involved in the day to day.

Yep, I reckon just taking a week out from time to time (when possible) is such an important aspect to betting successfully.  I know that sounds a bit dramatic, but seriously, just taking some time to switch off from as much as possible is incredibly therapeutic.  I’ve not struck a bet since I posted the last BD post, just prior to Christmas.  As a result, I’m now really eager to get going again, and am looking forward to what comes next.

On that note, there are going to be some changes.  I’m still just mulling these over, but by next week I’ll be clear and will reveal all.  It feels I’m ready to freshen things up, and I’m going to go with that particular flow.  Early thoughts are that I’m going to split the portfolio up into three categories – ‘Racing’, ‘Golf’, and ‘Football/Sports’.  I’ll report on each weekly, but maybe on different days, and although I’ll still post a monthly review we’ll track the figures continually with an ongoing ‘Year to Date’ performance recorded.  We’ll be able to compare each mini-portfolio, explore the challenges we come across and the solutions we find.  Should be fun.

Until then, please stay safe and healthy.  Without going all political (this isn’t the place), the one thing I do agree 100% with the government on is that Hands-Face-Space mantra.  Let’s look after each other by doing what we need to be doing, folks, and get through this nonsense.

See you next week.

Profits continue to build, so Happy Christmas!

Next week I’m away down to Devon for the family’s traditional Christmas holiday.  There have been times over the past months when I’ve wondered if it’s going to be possible, but I live in a Tier 2, Devon is Tier 2, and we’re keeping within our normal family bubble so it all looks like it should be ok.

The only issue is going to be fighting putting on even more Christmas “padding”, as it looks as if I’m going to eat even more than the usual seasonal excess.  If you can’t go into a pub for a pint without eating a “substantial meal”, heaven help me!  What’s worse is my eldest has recently turned 18, so no doubt the call of the local with it’s real local ale, roaring fire and old oak beams will be more alluring than ever.  Oh well, after the year we’ve all had, if we can’t treat ourselves a little this Christmas, when can we?

Generally speaking I tend not to bet too much over the holiday period.  Racing closes down for a couple of days before Christmas anyway, and getting a proper break from it all is something I find very refreshing.  No doubt I’ll be following Racing Service 1 in on Boxing Day.  It wouldn’t feel like Boxing Day if I didn’t and getting the bets on takes no more than a couple of minutes, but other than that I’ll have a rest and take the opportunity to recharge the old batteries.

Last week showed another overall profit, and the ROI for the month to date remains around a healthy 11-12%, although there were no fireworks similar to those we saw from RS1 the previous weekend.  Precision Value fared the best, bringing in consistent profit through the week.

Other than that and it was all a little mundane.  Good to see Racing Intelligence hit a winner and surely it’s only a matter of time before negative variance slams into reverse and we see a return to the good times  One thing is for sure, this is a service that can win points at a rapid rate when in form so it might not take too long to claw back the losses from this current drawdown.

A nod to Scottish Football Income Booster, who enjoyed another decent weekend.  It really is beginning to find some consistency over the past two or three weeks and hopefully this signals a sustained period of good form.  It must have been a really difficult year for footie tipsters.  Impossible to accurately assess the impact on form that having no crowd, an overly busy fixture list (which is just about to get crazy-buzy) leading to increased muscle injures to the players, the refereeing body changing the handball rule that saw an unprecedented number of penalties being awarded post-lockdown (some of which were, to any sane person, worse than ridiculous) and the incessant nonsense of VAR and the impact that has….blimey, that’s a lot of variables to try to get your head around when looking for value in the markets! Gives me a headache just thinking about it.

So, all that remains for me to say for now, is have a wonderful Christmas.  Stay healthy, and here’s to a much better 2021 for everyone.  It’s been a heck of a year.

Portfolio performance for December (to 13th)

Bet Alchemist (100 point bank): Staked 22pts, -6.975pts

Golf Insider (400): Staked 29pts, +2.75pts

Northern Monkey (100): Staked 14pts, -5.875pts.

PGA Profit (500): Staked 25.5pts, -13.77pts

Precision Value (200): Staked 46pts, +11.838pts

Racing Intelligence (200): Staked 25pts, -5.95pts

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 22pts, +6.909pts

Racing Service 1 (50): Staked 6.5pts, +9.75pts.

Total for December: ROI 11.75%, ROC 2%

 

TVB to the rescue!

There are times when I am stupid.  Not necessarily in what I do, but how I think (although if you ask my wife she’d probably tell you a fair bit of what I do is fairly daft).  Last week was a case in point.

Whenever a tipster is on a bad run, or if I’m enduring a bad spell with a number of tipsters underperforming, I always get overly optimistic when a new month starts.  I tell myself over and over that it doesn’t work like that.  That form doesn’t suddenly improve just because it’s the 1st of December now, and that November is behind us.  And then for some unknown reason, I’m mildly surprised and disappointed when double digit winners don’t go flying in left, right and centre.

Take Racing Intelligence.  They endured a difficult November and we’ve experienced something of a drawdown.  Why did I, even slightly, think that because we have a new month, that they would immediately start clawing those losses back and show a complete turnaround in fortunes?  It doesn’t work like that, does it?  Any idiot can see that.  And yet here I am, being dopey, and feeling like a parent who has been slightly disappointed and let down by their child’s behaviour in a restaurant.  A feeling of, how could you?

Makes no sense, does it?

Anyway, turning towards the more positive, and last weekend saw Racing Service 1 really get it’s season underway with an 8/1 winner on Friday and a 22/1 winner (yes, 22/1, although I should have got 25s but that’s another story) on Saturday.  So in a week in which Bet Alchemist, PGA Profits, and Racing Intelligence all ended with losses, whilst Golf Insider ended level and Precision Value only a small profit, I’ve somehow ended the week up at an ROI of over 11%.  Offer me 11% over a year and I’d snap your hand off!  So why am I feeling gloomy?

Finally, an honourable mention to Scottish Football Income Booster, who came good this week.  Not spectacularly so, but that’s two profitable weekends in a row now, so perhaps we’re seeing something of a return to form.

Return to form.  Seems to be a theme for the week.

Portfolio performance for December (to 6th)

Bet Alchemist (100 point bank): Staked 13pts, -8.55pts

Golf Insider (400): Staked 18pts, 0pts

Northern Monkey (100): Staked 7.75pts, +0.8pts.

PGA Profit (500): Staked 17.5pts, -17.5pts

Precision Value (200): Staked 21pts, +1.375pts

Racing Intelligence (200): Staked 16pts, -13.45pts

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 12pts, +3.65pts

Racing Service 1 (50): Staked 3.5pts, +10.75pts.

Total for December: ROI 11.86%, ROC 1.09%

Welcome back Northern Monkey – November’s Top Performer!

Well that dragged.  November seemed to go on forever. Perhaps it was the gloomier, colder weather.  Perhaps it was the lockdown.  Perhaps it is because I follow Racing Intelligence, which had a month to forget.  Either way, it’s over now and we have Christmas to look forward to, a vaccine, and perhaps the first real light at the end of the Covid tunnel.  Here’s hoping so.

Let’s start the round-up of the month with the best performer, and as the title of this post will have told you, that’s Northern Monkey.  It’s re-entry into the portfolio was well timed, and it was like saying hello to an old friend you haven’t seen for ages.  Well done, Wayne old chap.  Keep it up – there’s a good fellow. 🙂

In second place, timing it’s run as well as one of it’s winning tips storming up the Cheltenham hill, was Racing Service 1, who had winners at 11/1 and 10/1 on Saturday.  It’s been a difficult first month of the new season for RS1, coming to terms with a new bet release time, an altered way of doing write-ups, and Exchange price crashes.  As ever though, A. seems to have got on top of things, made a couple of tweaks, and I’m as pleased for him for Saturday’s results as I am for myself.

Then we have Golf Insider, and his 500/1 winner this month will live long in the memory.  I’m pretty sure that’s the longest price I’ve collected from ever.  The New Year will see me adopt a different, level stakes approach, as was recommended in the SBC review.

Precision Value managed to tip four horses to finish second from five bets on Monday, and by doing so downgraded what looked like being a great month to a merely decent one.  I’d be lying if I didn’t say I was kinda hoping the fifth tip would finish 2nd too, through some sort of weird masochistic desire.  It didn’t – it came nowhere.

On a similar theme, Bet Alchemist gave back a few points over the weekend to take the gloss off what in the end was a solid enough month.

The three services to end in the red were Scottish Football Income Booster, PGA Profit, and Racing Intelligence.  I have to say I was hoping for a lot more from SFIB, which traditionally excels at the start of the season.  With lower league Scottish football resuming this month, I was optimistic.  Hopefully, those expected profits will materialize in December instead.

As for Racing Intelligence, what is there to say other than it was a rotten month, best forgotten.  Let’s see what it can do to turn things around.

Now, I’m off to get a haircut…

Portfolio performance for November

Bet Alchemist (100 point bank): Staked 39pts, +5.737pts

Golf Insider (400): Staked 55pts, +45.837pts

Northern Monkey (100): Staked 44.5pts, +20.26pts.

PGA Profit (500): Staked 62pts, -28pts

Precision Value (200): Staked 99pts, +13.041pts

Racing Intelligence (200): Staked 258.5pts, -58.341pts

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 25pts, -2.641pts

Racing Service 1 (50): Staked 14pts, +5.758pts.

Total for November: ROI 5.29%, ROC 2.51%

Losing runs? Bring ’em on…

If you haven’t read this article yet, written by the SBC’s own Head Honcho (his official title, you understand), then you really must.  It’s essential reading.

When links to the article were sent out on social media, I was amused at a tweet from SBC Hall of Fame tennis tipster Nishi Kori, who stated (confessed?) that his record run of consecutive losers reached 16:

“even though you know this can happen, you know the variance, bla bla bla… the truth is that, after 16 consecutive losses, is not easy not becoming depressed.”

And that made me think.  The maths and probabilities of losing runs is relatively easy to get a grip on (read the article – it explains).  But what I personally struggle to get my head around is how a professional tipster, who charges subscription fees, can carry on looking for value in the betting markets without deviating from his or her methods.  You will know how mentally challenging it can be at times, just following tipsters.  But coming under ever increasing pressure as losers mount up, not from just yourself but from a following that has handed over money for the benefit of your expertise, keeping a clear head and a focus without succumbing to negativity must be immensely difficult.  Hats off to those that do it.

Short termism is such a danger when we’re betting, but it struck me this week that it isn’t just in gambling that it has an effect.  How many times do we feel that a football manager, who has demonstrated an ability to eke out considerable improvement in what had previously been a rabble of a team, get the sack at the first sign of a bump in the road?  In Jurgen Klopp’s first season as manager at Liverpool, he won only 13 of 30 games and Liverpool finished 8th.  Liverpool stuck with him, and now look what’s happened (much as it pains me to say!).  The benefits to Liverpool’s focus on the long-term and their confidence that in the German they’d got the right man in should inform other Clubs of the folly of getting rid of managers at the first sign of trouble.  It’s the same with us and tipsters.  Let’s have belief in our decision making process when we choose which tipsters to invest in, and only look to act if we see some underlying alteration to methods or approach when a sticky spell hits.

Nope, short termism should be treated by us bettors as the most deadly of the deadly betting sins, and something to avoid at all costs.  If we kept chopping and changing tipsters on the same sort of whim that sees Fantasy Football Managers buying last week’s top points scorer, whilst discarding the top points scorer from the week before that but who had blanked last week, we’d never make any money. (Please note, that is never me.  Never.  Honestly, never, never, never…but I might just bring Vardy back in this week after selling him last week).  

There are many more examples from other areas of life, but I imagine you don’t need me to spell any more out to you.  You get the point I’m making, I’m sure.  So next time we suffer a losing run, we’re going to laugh in it’s face.  We’re going to show we won’t be bullied into making bad decisions, and we’re going to stay calm and patient.

Now, if Vardy doesn’t get a hat trick at the weekend, I’m finished with him.  Finished I tell you.  I’ll be so, so mad, and he’ll be sold, and he’ll be ignored for ever and ever.  Well, until the next time he scores, anyway…

Portfolio performance for November (to the 22nd)

Bet Alchemist (100 point bank): Staked 28pts, +9.587pts

Golf Insider (400): Staked 48.5pts, +52.837pts

Northern Monkey (100): Staked 34.25pts, +23.167pts.

PGA Profit (500): Staked 62pts, -28pts

Precision Value (200): Staked 72pts, +1.791pts

Racing Intelligence (200): Staked 215pts, -35.341pts

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 19pts, -3.281pts

Racing Service 1 (50): Staked 11.5pts, -3.742pts.

Total for November: ROI 4.7%, ROC 1.77%