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Three different portfolios

G’day!

So we revealed last week how we are going to change things up a bit moving forward, running portfolios that are geared towards people in different situations.  In a nutshell, we still have a ‘Main’ portfolio made up of ten services much in the way we’ve had since the Bet Diary started.  In addition however, we now have two extra portfolios – one aimed at the beginner who perhaps has limited funds, and another for use at the Exchanges or for those of you who live in appropriate locations and have access to bet brokers.

I thought I’d use this post to outline some of the basic reasoning behind each portfolio.

Starting with the ‘Main’ portfolio, you will have noticed some services have made way to be replaced by others.  In has come The Accountant (a horse racing place lay expert), Golf Insider (experimented with in the past), Football Service 2 and Football Lay Profits.  My thoughts in restructuring this portfolio centred around my feeling that the portfolio as it was, was too heavily geared towards horse racing.  I wanted to diversify more, not merely to spread risk but also to add variety to the nature of the bets I’m placing with the bookmakers.  I want to try to come across to those trading teams that I am a jack of all betting trades and a master of none.  If a bookie looks at my history and sees I have a few bets on the horses here, a couple on footie there, a bit on the golf, etc., then perhaps they may think I’m more of a ‘fun’ bettor.  I might be completely misguided by harbouring this hope, but the variety can’t do any harm, can it?  The inclusion of two laying services too will ease the pressure on the bookies as I’ll obviously be using the Exchanges to follow these.

The ‘Starter’ portfolio is for those who are really just starting out on their betting journey.  Again, we have two laying services in an attempt to not pile on too much action onto unsuspecting bookmakers, hopefully extending their lifespan and building a strong foundation at Betfair or Smarkets or Matchbook – or, as more likely to be the case, at all three.  The theoretical stakes here are very small, but we will be looking to reinvest profit to both increase stakes and the breadth of the portfolio as we go along.

How long this takes is of course dictated by the performance of those services we’re starting off with.  With the two racing services, I’m going to be looking to increase stakes whenever we’ve seen a 25% increase in the relevant bank.  For the laying service we’ll simply be raising the stake every time we hit a new high.  So for example, If the bank for Football Lay Profits is 200 points, and we have set aside £400 for that bank, then as we start our lay will be £2.  If we make £10 in Day 1, then our new bank is £410 and the stake for the following day’s lays will be £2.05 (ie. £410/200 points).  We’ll not be lowering stakes as we make a loss.  I hope that makes sense.

Finally, the ‘Broxchange’ portfolio will use prices available at Betfair primarily, although Smarkets and Matchbook will come into play too.  I’ll also be looking at using MustardBet.  The idea of this portfolio is to show how we can still make money even if unable to bet with bookmakers that close accounts down too easily.  MustardBet’s business model is more akin to the Pinnacle’s, so let’s see how we can use it.

Next week, I’ll give some thoughts on the new services we’re following.

Portfolio Results from Monday 8th to Sunday 16th October

An excellent week for the ‘Main’ portfolio with Racing Service 3 and Northern Monkey in fine form.  NMP had the winner of the Cesarewitch at 12s ante post which was a real boon, especially as Wayne topped up on the beast on Saturday morning.  As for RS3, well, what can be said.  From 12 bets last week, he had five winners at 11/2, 8/1, 11/1, 18/1 and 9/2.  Add to that two that were advised each way and finished in the frame at 16/1 and 10/1.  Incredible!

It was a strong week for the ‘Starter’ portfolio too, with Northern Monkey being a part of it, and this despite no bets at all from Football Lay Profits and Racing Service 2.

Not so good for ‘Broxchange’ though, as Football Service 1 still can’t find a winner, The Accountant not getting off to a great start, and Golf Insider identifying golfers who played well, but not quite well enough!

Portfolio Performance

‘Main’: ROI 40.38%, ROC 3.08%.

‘Starter’: ROI 52.56%, ROC 5.11%.

‘Broxchange’: ROI -50.79%, ROC -2.58%.

Individual Service Performance

The Accountant: Staked 6pts, -1.417pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 12pts, +5.56pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 2pts, -2pts.

Golf Insider: Staked 14.4pts, -14.4pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 10pts, +0.25pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 14.25pts, +12.062pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 7pts, -1.38pts.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 20.5pts, +39.85pts.

As keen as mustard…

Did you read the recent SBC blog piece that contained an interview with a representative of MustardBet?  If not then you really should, as the recent entry into the bookmaking world of this firm could be the biggest thing to happen to the UK betting market since the withdrawal of Pinnacle Sports.

And boy is the overly-comfortable, cosy world of the leading UK online bookmakers due a proper shake down or what?!?  I still cringe at the absolute cynicism of the PR figureheads appearing on ITV Racing shouting out their special offers and great prices, whilst knowing that anyone who might have even the slightest inkling of what they’re doing when it comes to betting will be turned away from their doors with the speed and efficiency of a Lionel Messi run and finish.

The business model of most online books seems to be attract as many mug-punters as you can through aggressive advertising, special joining offers and deals and then play a numbers game.  Quickly weed out the competent, prevent them from betting, and then keep the mugs by offering more and more offers, many of which draw them into their Casino offering from where there is absolutely no mathematical chance of profiting in the long run.

MustardBet appear to be different.  Their business model is built around low margins, competitive odds, an ability to bet and win without being closed down, and a mathematical/statistical approach to creating opening market prices.  Once a market is available, weight of money will dictate price movements and a balanced book with a reduced overround is the result.  Simple, eh?

The benefits to us punters include value prices and the ongoing ability to have a bet.  I sounds daft I know, but we really shouldn’t downplay the extent to which this represents good news.  Along with growing exchanges offering competitive commission rates and an ever-increasing breadth of markets such as Smarkets and Matchbook, we’re beginning to get back to the situation we had when able to bet with Pinnacle before they withdrew from the UK market back in 2014.  And for that, we are grateful.

Portfolio results from Monday 1st October to Sunday 7th October

Right then, we have some developments.  We have a shaken up ‘Main’ portfolio, and today introduces two other portfolios to follow.

The first is what I’m going to call a ‘Starter‘ portfolio and is aimed at starting small and increasing stakes as we (hopefully) make a profit.  The aim is to show how from small acorns bigger things can grow and how a strategy of reinvestment can work.

Finally, we have the ‘Broxchange‘ portfolio, made up of services which we can use the betting exchanges and bet brokers to maximum effect.  This will start small but as and when suitable services become apparent, then we will look to expand.

I’ll write more about the make-up of each over the weeks ahead, but for now let’s see how we’ve fared in October so far…

Well, typically it’s been a wee bit of a nightmare.  Football Service 1 has got off to a shocker with nine bets from nine losing last week.  That’s always going to put us on the back foot but with Northern Monkey’s heroics of last Saturday soon forgotten amidst a few losing bets this, and MVS (Lite) and Racing Service 3 finding winners hard to come by, then it’s not been great at all!  Not one service excelled, and so the overall effect was a pretty bad week, but hey that at times is the reality of betting.

I have had much worse weeks in the past and always turned it around!

Let’s hope for better next week.

Main Portfolio

Racing Service 1: Staked 7pts, -0.25pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 9pts, -9pts.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 87.25pts, +1.55pts.

Golf Insider: Staked 350pts, -121.5pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 12pts, -4.5pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 14.925pts, -6.01pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 12pts, +1.5pts.

The Accountant: Staked 11pts, +0.521pts.

Racing Service 2: n/a.

Racing Service 3: Staked 12.5pts, -12.5pts.

TOTAL ROI: -25.48%.

Starter Portfolio

This will see stakes raised for each service as they make a profit, reaching a certain point before profits will be reinvested to add to the portfolio.  This may well take a fair amount of time.  It may not.  We’re in the hands of the betting gods, but we will get to the point of reinvestment at some point.  Each week I will note if stakes are to be raised or not.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 87.25pts, +1.55pts. (Stakes raised by 0.66%/point).

Northern Monkey: Staked 14.925pts, -6.013pts.

The Accountant: Staked 11pts, +0.521pts (Stakes raised by 0.8%/point)

Racing Service 2: n/a.

TOTAL ROI: -9.64%.

Broxchange Portfolio

All bets placed via the Exchanges or MustardBet.  This is a small portfolio designed for those who can’t use the main online books.

Football Service 1: Staked 9pts, -9pts.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 87.25pts, +1.55pts.

Golf Insider: Staked 350pts, -121.5pts.

The Accountant: Staked 11pts, +0.521pts.

TOTAL ROI: -28.84%.

September Review

It is a commonly held belief that September and October are difficult months for those of us who bet on the horses.  We’re getting towards the end of the flat turf season and horses have “gone over the top” from their previous summer exertions, and at the same time the National Hunt season proper has yet to get going and the jumps horses are lacking fitness.  Personally I think this is all a load of old codswallop, if you’ll forgive the overly technical term. Still, the racing services in the portfolio have largely struggled with only three of the seven producing a profit.  Perhaps there’s something in it after all.

Let’s start with the positive.  September was an outstanding month for Northern Monkey, who really cashed in on the last Saturday with over 22 points profit on the day!  It was interesting to read in Wayne’s own monthly review how profitable the multiple bets have been this year so far.  Last season the multiples barely broke even and it shows how patient you need to be when backing in doubles and trebles.

This last point is a pertinent one when we look at the rather dismal September suffered by the Fake Mug Bets Club.  FMBC and Northern Monkey represent the two bookends on the profit and loss shelf.  We might expect MVS (Lite) to have had a bad month if FMBC do, but this was not the case as MVS ended just a little in the red.

The other notable loser on the month was Pilelist Racing and this service needs to see a bit of an uplift soon.  It’s important to acknowledge that playing at longer odds as Pilelist does, it can be pretty testing at times.

Finally a nod to Jason James who supplied a fairly regular supply of winners to post some decent figures.

AH Betting: Staked 53pts, ROI -4.36%, ROC -3.85%

Fake Mug Bets Club: Staked 154pts, -71.874pts, ROI -46.67%, ROC -17.96%

Football Service 1: Staked 5pts, +2.54pts, ROI 50.8%, ROC 5.08%

Jason James: Staked 71pts, +21.2pts, ROI 29.85%, ROC 10.6%

MVS (Lite): Staked 62pts, -1.725pts, ROI -2.78%, ROC -1.91%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 66.5pts, +37.284pts, ROI 56.06%, ROC 46.6%.

Pilelist Racing: Staked 41.99pts, -10.613pts, ROI -25.27%, ROC -14.15%.

Racing Service 1: n/a

Racing Service 2: Staked 87.5pts, +3.125pts, ROI 3.57%, ROC 1.56%.

Racing Service 3: Staked 16pts, -2.938pts, ROI -18.36%, ROC -2.93%.

So rounding it all up, the month produced an ROI of 5.9% and bank growth of a slightly disappointing 1.66%.  And on that note it’s perhaps relevant to tell you that from next week I’ll be reporting back on a slightly different portfolio.  I feel it’s time to shake things up a little, cover more sports and types of service.  I’ll also be charting progress of a small portfolio designed for following using the Exchanges, and another aimed at showing how it’s possible to start small and by reinvesting profit grow your betting operation which I’m hoping will appeal to those of you with limited starting resources.

See you next week.

Getting on too early?

SBC members were treated this week to the release of the latest betting magazine.  Within this issue a distinct theme ran, for the three services put under the microscope each had something fundamental in common…they release bets to their subscribers the night before racing.

Now if you’re fairly new to betting you may be thinking, so what?  If you’re a seasoned bettor, you’re probably thinking, “Really?”

You see, the problems associated with consistently putting on bets the night before the racing actually takes place are numerous and the effect of you doing so can have deeply significant consequences.

The problems stem from the fact that evenings are when bookmakers, bless their little cotton socks, are feeling particularly vulnerable when it comes to taking bets on the nags.  The markets are immature, there’s not a great deal of money floating about, and because they can’t be bothered to employ a team of skilled analysts and traders to price up their books (which is what they used to do back in the day), they know that some of the prices they are offering are out of synch and that they can be punished by someone skilled in spotting their mistakes.

So what do they do?  They slash prices as soon as they see any kind of significant money coming in, and they mark the accounts of those doing the betting.  If they see customers regularly taking night-before prices on horses whose ultimate SP is shorter, then they send out one of their lovely little emails telling that customer that their business is no longer welcome.

Before we write tipsters who tip the night before off completely though, it is still possible to make good money by following them.  The reviews of the tipsters in the SBC Magazine show you how, and they also raise the other issues associated with betting very early.

In the meantime, if you are betting willy nilly in the evenings on the following day’s racing, just be careful, eh?  Pick a few steamers and you’ll find yourself persona non grata with those sensitive bookies.  And we don’t want that now, do we?

Betting Performance from Monday 10th – Sunday 23rd September

Behind the scenes there’s been a whirl of activity.  The reason?  I’m going to revamp the portfolio.  There are going to be some changes which are not a reflection on any of the services in themselves, but of a desire to have a bit more variety in the sports involved in the betting and to show what can be done by laying as well as backing.

Importantly too, it is going to show you how you can start small, and by following the right services and reinvesting profit, how you can grow a portfolio to a significant size.

The new portfolio will be launched on the 1st October, at which point too I’ll be able to reveal who’s in.  Exciting times, eh?

In light of this, I don’t want to make too much comment now about how services are performing so for this post, I’m just posting the figures.

Here they are…

AH Edge: Staked 21pts, +1.96pts, ROI 9.33%.

Fake Mug Bets Club: Staked 78pts, -33.75pts, ROI -43.26%.

Football Service 1: Staked 1pt, +1.07pts, ROI 107%.

Jason James: Staked 33.5pts, +16.2pts, ROI 49.25%.

MVS (Lite): Staked 26pts, +3.5pts, ROI 13.46%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 30.875pts, -10.317pts, ROI -33.41%.

Pilelist Racing: Staked 17.45pts, -5.475pts, ROI -31.38%.

Racing Service 1: n/a

Racing Service 2: Staked 43pts, +13.75pts, ROI 31.97%.

Racing Service 3: Staked 20pts, -5.15pts, ROI -25.75%.

Deep Joy

There was a tipster I followed a few years back who, when he experienced an exceptionally profitable day, always referred to it as a day of ‘deep joy’.  Sadly for that chap such days were very few and far between and his service wound up some time ago, but that saying has stayed with me.

Last Saturday was a day of ‘deep joy’ for Our Wayne at Northern Monkey.  Up until then, he’d found the first days of September pretty tough going, but on Saturday it all turned around…and then some.

First up we had our 10/1 antepost selection Ripp Orf in the big 20 runner handicap at Ascot, which comfortably came home in first place at a starting price of 7s.  As if this wasn’t sweet enough in itself, Ripp Orf was the second leg of a win double with a horse we’d backed earlier in the week that had come in at 13/8, so there was a 28/1 winning double right there.

As if that wasn’t enough, we’d also backed early a nag called The Tin Man for the Group 1 sprint up at Haydock at 8s, and in that screamed too!  A couple of others that were tipped on the Saturday finding place money it was a fine day for the service.   Indeed, a day of ‘deep joy’.

And it’s a good job too, as September has got off to a generally slow and sticky start.  Jason James has done well finding a 14/1 winner and hopefully this signals a strong month – he could do with one.  Elsewhere though, five services are running at a loss, and MVS (Lite) and the Fake Mug Bets Club are particularly culpable.

Early days in the month yet, though.

AH Edge: Staked 11pts, -0.003pts.

Jason James: Staked 20pts, +14pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 19pts, -9.5pts.

FMBC: Staked 40pts, -30.5pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 19.5pts, +25.769pts.

Pilelist Racing: Staked 10.05pts, -4.987pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 15pts, -5.5pts.

Racing Service C: Staked 8pts, +0.375pts.

August Review

A good end to the month meant that AH Edge posted some solid figures as the top European leagues got their new season underway.  Despite the fact that this service does provide tips through the summer, I can’t help feeling that this is the start of a new ‘year’ as undoubtedly there will be more bets coming through from now to next May.  Just like any supporter feels at this time of year about their football team, the new season always brings fresh optimism and that is how I’m feeling about AH Edge right now.  Last season wasn’t a vintage one by any means, but I’m a fan of Jon’s (the service operator) work and am hopeful that 2018/19 will be far more successful.  It’s been a decent start, with August more or less treading water until the very end, when a couple of winners – including a nice tip on Nice on the last day which came in at odds of just over 2/1 – really boosted the figures.

Staked 38pts, +4.375pts, ROI 11.51%, ROC 6.56%.

August was essentially a break-even month for Racing Service C but I can’t escape the feeling that it could have been so much better.  As you would expect, the York Ebor meeting was a busy time for this service and it wasn’t far away from being a bumper week with numerous each way tips finishing in the frame at fairly juicy prices but actual winners were hard to come by.  There was one race in particular I remember in which the two tips to be running finished second and third, and that summed up neatly how recent months have been going.  Still, a good number of the tips are running well, so let’s hope the winners follow.

Staked 54pts, -0.188pts, ROI -0.34%, ROC -0.18%.

I am concerned about the form of Jason James.  August finished in the red despite a good 14/1 winner being bagged during the last week.  Turnover appears to be lower than has previously been the case although this might be a short term anomaly, and it might be down to the tipster treading carefully whilst trying to rediscover his touch.  Either way, we do need to see a return to form.  Fingers crossed that happens this month coming.

Staked 71pts, -8pts, ROI -11.26%, ROC -4%.

After a nightmare run, the fog began to lift as the month progressed for MVS (Lite).  August started in the same losing vein as July but things slowly turned around and by the end of the month things had returned more to what I have come to expect from this service.  I remember distinctly that last summer was a golden period for MVS (Lite) with winners being banged in left, right and centre.  Just goes to show how the same betting methodology is so open to variance, both positive and negative.

Staked 64pts, +3pts, ROI 4.68%, ROC 3.33%.

A really strong month for the Fake Mug Bets Club with a couple of juicy doubles being landed to ratchet the profit.  Not much more to be said.  FMBC is what it is – one for the patient as there can be long barren spells but you know it’s only a matter of time before landing a big one.

Staked 152pts, +42.25pts, ROI 27.79%, ROC 10.56%.

A frustrating end to August for Northern Monkey with a series of near misses and second places eroding away at previously amassed profit.  At one point I was 20 points up but by the end of the month that had been reduced to 4.3pts.  I guess seconditis is all part of the betting we do and we have to accept it can strike at any time.  Doesn’t make it any less annoying though!

Staked 55.25pts, +4.3pts, ROI 7.78%, ROC 5.37%.

It was great to see Pilelist Racing return to some sort of form with a nicely profitable month.  I had felt during the latter part of July, when the service took a short break to recoup and gather some thoughts, that confidence was beginning to go, but some nice winners this month has reversed the losing trend.  The value of BOG was highlighted too on the 27th, when Borderline was tipped at a price of 12/1…it won at 22s!

Staked 51.882pts, +8.924pts, ROI 17.2%, ROC 11.84%.

The end of the month proved to be something of a damp squib for Racing Service B but a series of decent-priced winners that preceded the last disappointing week or so meant the month was far from being a dead loss.  Will himself suggested he was a little frustrated at a lack of consistency in his selection, but to be honest if he’s producing nearly 20% bank growth each month, then long may he be frustrated!

Staked 88.75pts, +19.26pts, ROI 21.7%, ROC 19.26%.

In summary then, it’s not been a vintage month but after a really poor spell earlier in the summer, it’s good to get back into the red.  Let’s see if we can progress through September.

Total Figures: ROI 9.88%, ROC 4.51%.

The start of the revolution?

I thought this week, seeing as it’s so topical, I’d take a break from talking about losing runs and all they bring and instead post a few thoughts on something which on the face of it is a huge positive for us punters.

As most of you are probably aware, BetVictor announced recently that they would guarantee to lay a bet with a liability of up to £500 on all UK and Irish horse racing from 11.00 each morning.  Not long after BetVictor’s statement, Betfair Sportsbook announced they would adopt a very similar policy; their offer would be available from 10.00am but would apply exclusively to win-only bets.

There is no doubt that these moves represent a big step forward in the battle for fair bookmaking practices that has been wagered so vigorously and admirably by the Smart Betting Club and led by the Horseracing Betting Forum.  Undoubtedly as a result of their actions the UK Gambling Commission has been forced to recognise that there is a problem within UK bookmaking practices that requires attention.

So on the face of it, all seems well and good.  However, and here is where you need to forgive me for being something of  a cynical old git, I can’t help wondering about the motivation of BetVictor  and Betfair to lead the way in this betting revolution.  Could it be a relatively short-term PR move aimed at attracting customers before an inevitable weedling out of those that show themselves to be profitable, who will then face the all too familiar account restrictions and closures?  I very much hope not (and think this unlikely, to be honest) but Blacktype’s glorious entry into the bookmaking world not so long ago, with accompanying fanfair around their non-restriction of punters policy proved to be something a false dawn as that policy was seemingly dropped, presumably for commercial reasons.

And to my mind, therein lies the crux of the issue of whether or not BetVictor and Betfair (and perhaps other firms that follow suit) are able to carry their £500 liability policy forward long term.  We have to acknowledge and embrace the fact that these are businesses whose aim (and rightly so) is to make a profit.  I find it fascinating that BetVictor have decided, as they must have, that introducing this new strategy will likely lead to growing their profitability.  After all, standing a bet on the horses up to £500 is a long long way from limiting an account that was open long enough only  for literally a handful of bets to be placed, none of which carried a liability of more than £100, before being restricted to less than a pound on a 2/1 shot!  I speak from personal experience…

We can only hope that BetVictor and Betfair are rewarded for their striking out against the tide of account closures and crippling restrictions in that by doing so, they start making more money.  Yep, it’s a strange old world when I want the bookies to do well!  But if they do, then other firms will undoubtedly follow in Victor’s footsteps and before we know it, we bettors will be in a much better place than we are now.  And even this cynical old git can dream!

Thought I’d leave the figures for a day or two for a ‘Review of the Month’ post, which will follow shortly.

Angels and Demons

Continuing the theme of coping with the bad betting times, the topic I want to discuss in this post and next, is when to drop a tipster that you’re following, and how perhaps to avoid making some pretty common mistakes.

Dropping a tipster you’re following is the easiest thing in the world to do when things are going badly; your instinct tells you to shift responsibility away from yourself and onto someone else’s shoulders and let’s face it, who is the obvious target?  You’ve paid good money for someone’s expertise, but following that expertise is costing you money.  The little demon sitting on your shoulder is whispering in your ear that the solution to your problems, the dead easy way to stop throwing away good money after bad, is to stop putting your cash on this guy’s tips.

Hopefully, sitting on your other shoulder, is a Guardian Angel – let’s call him Gabe (Gabrial is a touch formal, don’t you think?) – who will try to counter the temptations put your way by the devil.

Here are some of the things that Gabe, if he’s any sort of a half-decent angel worth listening to, should be talking to you about and questioning…

  1.  Why did you follow this particular tipster in the first place?  Surely you will have read an independent review about the service that included detailed break downs of losing runs and outlined appropriately sized betting banks before you took the plunge?
  2. You did set aside the recommended size of betting bank didn’t you?  You’re not telling me you took a bit of a risk and thought you’d get by with less, surely?
  3. Obviously, finding losing difficult to take at the best of times, you went into following this tipster with your eyes open to the fact that the guy tips at average odds of 12/1 and losing runs are common and lengthy, yes?
  4. Naturally you will have set up your betting bank from funds that fundamentally, you can afford to lose?  Sure, we all hope that busting a bank won’t happen but we realized it could, didn’t we, before betting the new chaps tips, and if the very worst did happen we’d still be able to cover all our living expenses and then some, right?
  5. And I know you didn’t back a decent priced winner early in the piece and assumed that you’d found the holy grail of betting services and so immediately raised your stake!

OK, so the way I’ve written the above might mean I’m coming over as being a little facetious, but being totally honest with you, they outline the mistakes I have made myself with my own betting.  I’ve signed up to services that really weren’t for me, that relied on long-priced winners that were relatively few and far between with many spells of drought between drinks from the well.  Psychologically, at the time I joined these services, I wasn’t ready and prepared to ride out the storms.  I have also thought I’d get by with inappropriately sized betting banks, believing that the profits from my other tipsters would cover things if my new addition didn’t do so well, only for my “tried and trusted” to embark upon a losing run at the same time as my new service.

And yes, I did once sign up to a new tipster, back a 20/1 winner on my first day of following, and promptly up my stakes dramatically – big mistake!

Of course it is not always the right thing to do to continue backing a tipster come what may.  We read so much about the “long term” and having to expect losing runs that we can forget that going to the opposite extreme – continuing to back the selections from a service that has lost it’s edge – is just as wrong as dropping a successful tipster at the first sign of trouble.  The trick of course, is identifying when that tipster might have lost it’s edge.

We’ll cover that in the next post…

Betting for Tuesday 14th August – Monday 20th August

AH Edge: Staked 9pts, n/a, ROI n/a

Jason James: Staked 13pts, +2pts, ROI 15.38%.

MVS (Lite): Staked 8pts, +4pts, ROI 50%.

Fake Mug Bets Club: Staked 16pts, +8.25pts, ROI 51.56%

Northern Monkey: Staked 12.5pts, -0.95pts, ROI -7.6%.

Pilelist Racing: Staked 17.516pts, +10.891pts, ROI 62.18%.

Racing Service B: Staked 25pts, +5pts, ROI 20%.

Racing Service C: Staked 7pts, +0.5pts, ROI 7.14%.

Total for the week: ROI 26.09%, ROC 2.35%.