Month: October 2023

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70/1? I’ll have “Sami” that!

Re. the title…I know.  Shoot me now.  It works better if you read it with a strong Glaswegian accent, “Aye, I’ll ha’ summae that, wee man!”


Let’s move on.  Quickly…

I refuse for this Monday Bet Diary slot to become a repetitive ode to my son’s good fortune when it comes to his golf betting, but it’s becoming difficult to ignore his exploits.  Regular readers will know that he is using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker to come up with his bets for the week, looking to cover somewhere around 15-20% of the field in terms of win probability.  So far, his “strategy” is working exceptionally well  Yesterday saw Joe triumph again, with Sami Valimaki winning a play-off to claim victory and by doing so land odds of 70/1 (do you get the title now?).

Happily, I had also split my total stake, with half going on each way with Joe’s bookmaker, and half on the usual win-only bet on Smarkets, where I got odds of 90.0 on the triumphant Finn, so happy days!

It wasn’t exactly unlikely that Joe identified Valimaki on the Tracker whilst the golfer was also tipped up by WGV – he consulted the Tracker on early Wednesday afternoon, roughly around the same time I know that Tom at Bookie Bashing is deciding which golfers will make the WGV roster for the week.  In fact, of the eight golfers put up by WGV, Joe had already backed six of them prior to my getting the WGV email through.

Anyway, Joe’s figures using the Golf Tracker now read:

4 winners from 13 tournaments, 13 more bets producing an each way return, and an ROI of 47.29%.  All that from 165 bets, so roughly 12-13 golfers backed per tournament.

I can’t help but think these are the figures of someone running very hot, and we all know that variance can kick someone hard, right in the nadgers to bring them back crashing down to earth.  I guess we’ll see on that one.

Away from Joe’s golfing success, and the few days off I took last week to refresh the batteries have been welcome.  You don’t realise how relentless this game can be until you step off the treadmill for a bit.  This isn’t any call for sympathy – I make a decent second income doing something I really enjoy doing – but working a full day, nipping out to the bookies at lunchtime to get a couple of Lucky 15s down, then often taking two hours in the evening doing the wider bookmaking rounds, placing more bets, picking up returns etc, then doing the admin, it can take it out of you.  And all that’s before you think about walking the dog, shopping, cooking, etc.  My wife works ridiculously long hours too, so it’s not fair to just dump all of that on her.  I’m just glad that my kids are now grown up!

The point I’m making is that now more than ever, I feel that in terms of workload, the shift to predominantly using cash in bookmakers a lot more has made it heavier than ever.  And yet, I’m enjoying my betting now more than I ever have!  Perhaps it’s because there’s more human interaction; keeping on the right side of the cashiers, taking five minutes to chat to one or two of the regulars, and yesterday, even getting rid of an awkward bugger from a shop who was making life really difficult for the cashier when she was clearly not the one in the wrong!  I drew myself up to my full 6’1”, silently prayed he wouldn’t hit me, and tried to sound calm and not the sh*t-scared I was when suggesting the best thing he could do was to bugger right off.  Thankfully, he did what I suggested.  Wish my missus would, even if just now and then…

I didn’t stop betting last week, but with it being half term I was able to spend some proper time with my wife.  We went into Manchester, found a place that does unbelievably good pizza, a small tapas place to die for, and a couple of out of the way pubs that you could very easily spend all day in.  It was a nice routine – I’d do the rounds and get my bets down in the morning whilst she did whatever work teachers do during the “holidays”, and then out for lunch and a drink.  We both said we’d not drink too much, but then got the train in, which kinda tells you what our plans really were.

So, here I am.  Refreshed and raring to go, some new ideas, and thoughts re how things will look for my betting in 2024.  More on all of that in good time, but it’s fair to say that next year I need to make things a little bit easier for myself, and really work on having a lifestyle that involves a lot of work, but also a lot of play.  Life’s too short for anything else.

All results brought up to speed on Wednesday.

With you soon…!

So sorry, all.  There is an update post coming, but am currently on holiday, and whilst not “away ” as such, have got caught up in what has definitely been too much eating, and possibly just a tiny, incy, wincy bit too much consuming of red wine and grappa.

Bear with me.  Laters…

Down to Earth with a Bump (kinda…)

Joe had Matti Schmid and Richard Mansell at 80/1 and 60/1 for this past week’s DPWT Tour golfing tournament.  Roughly halfway through the final round, Schmid was leading and Mansell just a shot behind.  Having seen enough over the past years to know that even four holes remaining is a long way to go in golf (I remember having Mito Perreria at a fancy price for an event in the States and him needing only a par or even a bogey on the last hole to land the odds, before he hit his tee shot into a stream and messed it all up!) I got the impression Joe thought it was a fourth winner in as many weeks of betting on golf.

The fact I’ve typed the above tells you all you need to know.  Neither Schmid nor Mansell won, with Adrian Meronk storming through to take up the lead on the 18th; Schmid wasn’t able to birdie the last himself to set up a play off.  He finished one stroke behind Meronk in second, with Mansell a further shot back in third.

Joe doesn’t watch the golf.  Without particularly trying, he has the perfect approach to betting – he sees it as something he needs to do mechanically and without emotion.  He doesn’t bother checking how things are progressing once he has struck his bets.  It was only because I told him that he knew Schmid and Mansell were handily placed.  And when neither of them won, he was definitely, just a little surprised, the naive fool!

Anyway, if this was a return to Earth after backing three winners in three weeks’ worth of tournaments, it was of the gentlest type.  Here are his figures for what is four weeks of golf betting.  Not bad, eh?

Tournaments: 12

Bets: 151

Placed: 13

Winners: 3

ROI: 34.74%

Back with my own figures on Wednesday.

Quick Update!

Really short of time tonight as have to pick up relatives from the airport.  No rest for the wicked and all that.

Anyway, if you’ll excuse me, just a very quick update.

Not a great week, but nothing too catastrophic.  To be honest, there’s not been a huge amount to bet on due to the infernal interlull (©Arseblog) that brings the major European domestic leagues to a grinding halt just as they’re beginning to gather momentum.

The Bookie Bashing Football Coupons are going along very nicely indeed and came close to a big pay out from a coupon that had a 10/1 winner on it.  That wasn’t to be, but the ROI from these is currently looking pretty good.

Not  much joy elsewhere.

Also, have just placed a temporary halt on the Edwards Tips golf bets.  Work is hectic and I’m struggling for time is the only reason.  I will be recommencing with these at some point, don’t you worry.

Betting 2023-24

AI Football: Staked 92pts, -10.246pts, roi -11.13%, High: 1.865pts, DD: -12.111pts, Max DD: -12.355pts.

Any Time Goalscorer: Staked 116.1pts, -7.54pts, roi -6.49%, High: 11.935pts, DD: -19.475pts, Max DD: -24.546pts.

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 58pts, +18.086pts, roi 31.18%, High: 18.086pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -8.692pts.

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 5,637pts, +621.38pts, roi 11.02%, High: 655.98pts, DD: -34.6pts, Max DD: -596.38pts

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 410pts, +42.362pts, roi 10.33%, High: 56.124pts, DD: -13.762pts, Max DD: -16.801pts.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 222.4pts, +17.296pts, roi 7.77%, High: 49.971pts, DD: -32.675pts, Max DD: -32.675pts.

DD/HH: Staked 110.85pts, +6.75pts, roi 6.08%, High: 10.7pts, DD: -3.95pts, Max DD: -20.15pts.

NFL strategy: Staked 52.7pts, +4.906pts, roi 9.3%, High: 48.106pts, DD: -43.2pts, Max DD: -43.2pts

PGA Profit: Staked 340.5pts, +5.836pts, roi 1.71%, High: 84.858pts, DD: -79.022pts, Max DD: -97.076pts.

Sys Analyst: Staked 487.75pts, -10.85pts, roi -2.22%, High: 61.035pts, DD: -73.385pts, Max DD: -73.385pts.

Touchdown Profit: Staked 20pts, +4.919pts, roi 24.59%, High: 4.919pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -0.329pts

TOTAL ROI: 6.88%


It was another week, another winner for Joe and his golf betting.  Mathieu Pavon never looked like giving away the lead he went into the final round with and was one of the more comfortable golf winners.  I’m putting on half my stake with Joe now to take advantage of the place terms that the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker seeks to find value, with the other half of my stake going on win-only on the Exchanges.

The approach to golf betting using the BB Tracker has altered slightly though.  Joe has his stake, I add my half stake to it, and this on golfers within certain odds ranges at certain EV levels when we put our bets on, which tends to be early Wednesday evenings.  We seek a 15-20% field coverage, and that usually means backing somewhere between 10 and 14/15 golfers.  For the Exchange win-only bets, I’m sticking currently to the Weekly Golf Value picks.

Anyway, Joe’s happy, and why wouldn’t he be?  Here are his personal figures after what has effectively been his first month (didn’t back anything during Ryder Cup week):

125 bets.

10 tournaments.

Outright Winners: 3

Placed: 14

ROI: 47.78%.

Bank growth (ROC): 40.1%

Not bad.  Not bad at all.  There hasn’t been a lot for him to do through Matchday Profits as Paul (the guy who runs it) has been on holiday.  That changed this weekend though, so I’ll be able to give a progress report here too, this time next week.

An update on my results on Wednesday.

Another winner to add to the Weekly Golf Value LIST!

WGV followers!  See what I did there?

*moves quickly on…*

A break even week all told, which when I tell you I backed Weekly Golf Value’s Luke List at 50/1 at the bookies and at a price of 60.0 on the Exchanges, tells you the rest of the week wasn’t great.  To be fair, I took Monday to Wednesday off from betting, simply because I had a couple of things at work that were taking all my time to sort and I figured those three days would have been the quietest from a betting point of view anyway.

Not sure quite how List won, to be honest.  It didn’t look at all likely when I went to bed on Sunday night, but when I woke up I saw he had triumphed in a 5-player (yes, five!) play-off!  Tom at Bookie Bashing has said before we don’t lose play-offs (and I think I can remember only one loser in a play-off from about six, although my memory may well just be refusing to remember others because of the trauma) but this is taking the proverbial!  Anyway, happy days.

The Lucky 15s from the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker had a solid weekend too, with no spectacular win or anything but a series of placed horses interspersed with the odd winner more than did enough to counter the odd bad slip.

My Anytime Goal Scorer bets picked from the BB Player xG Tool produced a solid profit too, although the number of bets were down.  I might, possibly, change the way I play these to stake to win a certain amount as opposed to using Kelly staking.  Don’t know yet.  To be decided.

And the only other profitable tipster/strategy was Touchdown Profit who is going along quiet merrily this season so far.

Edwards Tips and PGA Profit each drew a blank with no returns to mention, and AI Football continues it’s difficult patch.  The BB Football Coupons didn’t perform last weekend for me either, whilst elsewhere just very small losses were registered.

Looks like this week is a quiet one too, what with the interminable break for ridiculously dull international football.  Looking forward to next week already, and barely halfway through this.  Oh, well.

Betting 2023-24 (from April 1st)

AI Football: Staked 88pts, -10.49pts, roi -11.92%, High: 1.865pts, DD: -12.355pts, Max DD: -12.355pts.

Any Time Goal Scorer: Staked 116.1pts, -7.54pts, roi -6.49%, High: 11.935pts, DD: -19.475pts, Max DD: -24.546pts.

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 51pts, +12.094pts, roi 23.71%, High: 14.869pts, DD: -2.775pts, Max DD: -8.692pts.

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 5,288pts, +655.98pts, roi 12.4%, High: 655.98pts, DD: 0pts, Max DD: -596.38pts

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 394pts, +49.446pts, roi 12.54%, High: 56.124pts, DD: -6.678pts, Max DD: -16.801pts.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 210.4pts, +29.296pts, roi 13.92%, High: 49.971pts, DD: -20.675pts, MaxDD: -20.675pts.

DD/HH: Staked 100.7pts, +3.7pts, roi 3.67%, High: 10.7pts, DD: -7pts, Max DD: -20.15pts.

NFL strategy: Staked 52.7pts, +4.906pts, roi 9.3%, High: 48.106pts, DD: -43.2pts, Max DD: -43.2pts

PGA Profit: Staked 323.5pts, +22.836pts, roi 7.05%, High: 84.858pts, DD: -62.022pts, Max DD: -97.076pts.

Sys Analyst: Staked 475pts, +1.9pts, roi 0.4%, High: 61.035pts, DD: -60.635pts, Max DD: -62.22pts.

Touchdown Profit: Staked 19pts, +4.028pts, roi 21.2%, High: 4.028pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -0.329pts

TOTAL ROI: 7.99%

Timing is everything.

It occurred to me this week that timing really is everything.  Or at least it can be made to be, and if we do make it everything then we could end up making a big mistake.

My lad Joe started using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker three weeks ago.  Bear in mind that last week we had the Ryder Cup and therefore there was no Tracker, he’s essentially been betting on golf for two weeks.  With Luke List winning last night in a five way play-off (although his odds of a successful outcome were increased by the fact he had Scott Stallings in there too), he’s now had two outright winners and is running I believe, at an ROI of around the 60% mark. {Edit. 62.07%}

This is his first experience of sports betting.  How easy do you think he feels the game is at the moment?  He probably thinks my constant warnings of losing runs and drawdowns are just the crazed ramblings of a senile old git.  I know his ROI level is going to come down.  Anyone with any real experience of sports betting knows too.  But currently, he’s taking his winnings for granted as he’s made more money from one hour’s of “work” than he did from working a load of shifts at Sainsbury’s in the summer.  Well, nearly as much.

I, on the other hand, have been struggling a little bit with AI Football.  Not in the sense that I have lost faith in it already, despite the fact that my starting to follow the service has coincided with a bit of a rough patch (although nowhere near disastrous).  My experience tells me there’s nothing at all to worry about, that the smart play is to just carry on regardless and the profits will come.  But what if Joe’s first experience of betting was following AI Football and not the Golf Tracker?  How different would he be feeling, and how long would he persevere for?

Let me make it completely clear that AI Football is hardly showing anything that could even most tenuously be called a crisis.  I think sometimes when short priced bets fail then mentally it can be harder to adapt.  How many of us have given up on a service prematurely because our joining them has been poorly timed from an immediate results perspective?  I know I did, back in the day.

It’s all to do with timing, until you grow grizzled and gnarled and cynical.  At that point you treat the two consecutive weeks of golf winners as running hot and there’s going to be heck of a comedown just around the corner, and you treat the bad runs with a sigh and a  slight sense of gloom.

Think I’d rather be young and naive again…

Where I draw the line.

There’s no way of putting it, but last week was a bit of a shocker.  Losing bet after losing bet after losing bet.  It happens, but it would be really helpful if one or two of the services/strategies going through a rough time could turn it around and start brining in a bit of profit.

To be fair, Touchdown Profit gave just two bets last week which both won, but that was a rare highlight.

AI Football is having a bit of a rough patch, and no matter how many times you tell yourself that it’s all a numbers game in the end, when bets at very short prices regularly lose it can be quite testing mentally.  You back at a short price, you kinda expect it to win, but as we all know it’s really not as simple as that.

The Anytime Goal Scorer bets gleaned from the Bookie Bashing Player xG Tracker got off to a flying start and ran hot initially, but now they’re running cold, summed up by what I mentioned in Monday’s post when one of the bets was on Luis Diaz for Liverpool on Sunday.  Referees messing up to affect games is bad enough, but when their monumental nonsense starts hitting me in the pocket…well, that’s where I draw the line!  Which is more than the VAR did properly, eh?

The worst performer on the week was the Value Bets taken using the Bookie Bashing Bet Tracker (and from other tools in their armoury).  These were running ridiculously hot – I mentioned this last week – and I guess what we’re seeing now, many would call a “correction”.  Still, I’m still running at 15% ROI from these overall which is still about twice the level I would expect, so a bit of context, as with everything else, is needed.

Let’s hope for better this week.

Betting 2023-24

AI Football: Staked 79pts, -5.834pts, roi -7.38%, High: 1.865pts, DD: -7.699pts, Max DD: -7.699pts.

Any Time Goalscorer: Staked 111.3pts, -12.611pts, roi -11.33%, High: 11.935pts, DD: -24.546pts, Max DD: -24.546pts.

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 46pts, +14.869pts, roi 32.32%, High: 14.869pts, DD: 0pts, Max DD: -8.692pts.

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 5,038pts, +316.88pts, roi 6.28%, High: 343.88pts, DD: -27pts, Max DD: -596.38pts

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 382pts, +42.71pts, roi 11.18%, High: 56.124pts, DD: -13.414pts, Max DD: -16.801pts.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 207.4pts, +32.296pts, roi 15.57%, High: 49.971pts, DD: -17.675pts, Max DD: -17.675pts.

DD/HH: Staked 99.9pts, +4.5pts, roi 4.5%, High: 10.7pts, DD: -6.2pts, Max DD: -20.15pts.

Edwards Tips (Golf): Staked 188.1pts, -2.138pts, roi -1.13%, High: 24.028pts, DD: -26.166pts, Max DD: -35.102pts.

NFL strategy: Staked 48.7pts, +8.906pts, roi 18.28%, High: 48.106pts, DD: -39.2pts, Max DD: -39.2pts

PGA Profit: Staked 306.5pts, +39.836pts, roi 12.99%, High: 84.858pts, DD: -45.022pts, Max DD: -97.076pts.

Sys Analyst: Staked 463.1pts, +2.827pts, roi 0.67%, High: 62.535pts, DD: -59.708pts, Max DD: -62.22pts.

Touchdown Profit: Staked 14pts, +3.157pts, roi 22.55%, High: 3.157pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -0.329pts

TOTAL ROI: 12.21%

What’s in a name?

Something a bit weird happened on Sunday.

I went in to one of the William Hill shops I use to pick up some returns from a couple of Bookie Bashing’s football coupons I’d placed the previous day.  I wasn’t picking up that much.  £254 to be precise, from which around £150 was a profit.  Not a great deal at all, in the scheme of things.

I went to the counter, and gave the guy my slips.  Seemed a nice chap.  I haven’t seen him much.  A young guy, English clearly not his first language and obviously fairly new to William Hill as he still smiles!  My guess is he’s a student working weekends to help pay for his studies.  Anyway, I hand the slips over and he goes to his console to do what they need to do to know what the return is.

“What’s your name?”, he asks.

“Erm, why do you need that?”, I respond, as light heartedly as I can muster.  I don’t want to appear suspicious, but suspicious I damn well am!

“It’s just asking me to input a name.” he says, smiling.

At this point I’m in a bit of a quandary.  I mean, why do they want my name?  It’s never going to be a good thing, when a bookmaker asks for more info about you, is it?  But for £250?  Really?  But then if I give a false name, and next time I pick up a big return, you know, something in the region of 50 quid (!), and they ask for ID…then I really am going to look suspicious and opening up all sorts of cans of worms.

So I give my real name, but only my first name, and for some daft reason hope he misspells it.  Not sure why, I just do.  Rowan isn’t that common a name, and believe me people I don’t know tend to spell it in all sorts of weird ways and that’s not including those that have never heard of it and so call me Robin, or Roland instead,

I got paid out, and nothing more was said.  But it’s left me feeling uncomfortable about that shop.  What happens if I land a nice four figure return from a Lucky 15 or something?  Is this the forerunner of all sorts of issues getting paid out?  Am I blowing this completely out of proportion?  Anyone with a similar experience, use the Comments section below…

Funnily enough I’d been in a Ladbrokes shop a couple of days before, sticking down a Lucky 15 and the guy behind the counter asked if I wanted to sign up for a Grid card.  To his surprise I said no, despite him pointing out that it would mean all the horses on my L15s would have BOG applied if I did (which would be pretty useful to be honest).  But I didn’t want them to have my personal details.  Not sure if my dismissing the question out of hand made me look a complete mug (hopefully), or suspicious.

So my question for you.  Am I being overly sensitive and a bit of a wally, or is my desire to keep my personal details personal the best thing to do?

As for the betting itself, not a good week.  You can read more on Wednesday, but if I tell you that one of my losing Anytime Goal Scorer bets was Luis Diaz and that summed up my week, you can tell how things have gone.

Until Wednesday…