Month: September 2023

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Not the worst week I’ve ever known by a long way, but not a great one nonetheless.

Weekly Golf Value drew a complete blank which meant the prices I took on the Exchange for finishing either Top 5 or Top 10 were rendered irrelevant.  This happens, and there was at least the consolation of Satish Theegala winning the PGA event in the US at a price of 18.0 for Edwards Tips.    With PGA Profit drawing a blank too though, this was one of those rare occasions where despite having an outright winner, the overall balance for golf betting on the week ended pretty substantially in the red.

The only service/strategy to come out with any real merit was last week was the Double Delight/HatTrick Heaven bets gleaned from the relevant Bookie Bashing Tracker.  The international matches threw up a couple of games with bets and two winners meant a fair profit.

That was however, the only significant bright spot.  Last week’s highly successful NFL Strategy was this week’s villain with all matches involved refusing to throw up a winner.  However, we were ridiculously unlucky not to get a win and with it an excellent profit on the week.  The half time score between the Packers and the Falcons was 10-9, with the Falcons missing the kick for an extra point after a last minute touchdown.  I mean, I can’t remember when I actually saw one of those “conversions” (to use the rugby parlance) missed.  What the actual?!?  The rate of successful kicks usually lies around the 93-95% mark, to provide some context.  I don’t know who the kicker was, but what a muppet!

Waiting for Sys Analyst to re-find winning ways, and it was a very cold week for the Any Time Goalscorer bets.  After running very hot initially, these tougher few days have brought me to what is essentially a break even level.

Betting 2023-24 (from 1st April)

AI Football: Staked 46pts, -0.234pts, roi -0.5%, High: 1.865pts, DD: -2.099pts, Max DD: -2.999pts.

Any Time Goalscorer: Staked 47.9pts, -0.645pts, roi -1.34%, High: 11.935pts, DD: -12.58pts, Max DD: -12.58pts.

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 34pts, +10.25pts, roi 30.14%, High: 14.03pts, DD: -3.78pts, Max DD: -8.692pts.

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 4,818pts, +85.88pts, roi 1.78%, High: 343.88pts, DD: -258pts, Max DD: -596.38pts

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 350pts, +56.124pts, roi 16.03%, High: 56.124pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -16.801pts.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 116.7pts, +37.885pts, roi 32.46%, High: 37.885pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -4.506pts.

DD/HH: Staked 93.7pts, +10.7pts, roi 11.41%, High: 10.7pts, DD: 0pts, Max DD: -20.15pts.

Edwards Tips (Golf): Staked 185.85pts, -1.696pts, roi -0.91%, High: 24.028pts, DD: -25.724pts, Max DD: -35.102pts.

NFL strategy: Staked 28.7pts, +28.906pts, roi 100.71%, High: 48.106pts, DD: -19.2pts, Max DD: -19.2pts

PGA Profit: Staked 306.5pts, +39.836pts, roi 12.99%, High: 84.858pts, DD: -45.022pts, Max DD: -97.076pts.

Sys Analyst: Staked 432.1pts, +14.215pts, roi 3.28%, High: 62.535pts, DD: -48.32pts, Max DD: -48.32pts.

Touchdown Profit: Staked 8pts, +1.487pts, roi 18.58%, High: 1.5955pts, DD: -0.108pts, Max DD: -0.108pts

TOTAL ROI: 12.21%

Learning the hard way.

It’s been a pretty poor week for me, and you’ll be able to read about that in Wednesday’s results post.  But funnily enough, it was my son’s betting that seemed to sum up the week.

Let’s call him Joe, on account of that being his name.  Joe is using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker for his initial venture into betting.  His aim is to use this whilst he has a full suite of viable bookmaker accounts, using the tracker to identify golfers within a certain price range and backing them each way.  The aim for each tournament is to be covering about 15-20% of the field on average, based on win probability.  If you want to know a more precise description of his strategy, you only need to listen to our very own Pete on one of the recent Bookie Bashing podcasts.  The only difference is that Pete was describing how he uses the Tracker to back golfers win only on the Exchanges, whereas Joe is taking advantage of the place terms with the bookies.

Anyway, things were looking good for Joe in the PGA Championship event at Wentworth when Tyrell Hatton, one of the golfers he had backed, cruised into a four shot lead midway through the final round.  One of the nearest pursuers was Aaron Rai, another golfer carrying his money.  Then out of nowhere Ryan Fox, who had triple-bogeyed the third hold, came home with something of a wet sail, picking up 8 birdies over the last 12 holes to pip both Hatton and Rai by just one shot.  To make matters worse, Rai had his Eagle putt on the last dance around the rim of the hole.  Had that gone in instead of not, it would have been a very good win.  I guess that’s what is called an early lesson on just how cruel betting can be.  Poor lad.

Away from the stress of someone else’s golf betting, I managed to do something really stupid in the bookies by backing two different horses in one Lucky 15 today.  God knows how that will be sorted out.  Both bloomin’ well placed!

Right, until Wednesday…

A welcome return to the NFL and a big Weekly Golf Value win!

A truly excellent week and after what felt like an endless period of making very slow progress, the past couple of months have seen the profits really pick up.  It all feels a lot busier too, which is great, as the new football season starts and now, the NFL has gotten underway too.  And it was here that the biggest profit was made last week via the strategy that can be read on the Bookie Bashing site even if not a member.

The strategy identifies an edge – and a considerable one at that – in what are likely to be low scoring matches.  There were two such games on the first Sunday of the new season and one match produced the goods and an excellent profit.  It is the sort of strategy that can see you go weeks without a winner, and there won’t be that many bets throughout the whole season, but it served me very well last season and has got off to a flyer this.

Good to see Touchdown Profit get off to a profitable start too.

Moving away from American Football and it was Weekly Golf Value that actually provided the biggest chunk of profit on the week with Vincent Norrman winning the Irish Open, backed at 55.0 on the Exchange.  Norrman came from nowhere shooting a very impressive last round score to set the pace in the club house, a pace that everyone else, one by one, failed to keep up with.  I didn’t see that happening before the last round started!

Getting and taking Value Bets highlighted on the Bookie Bashing Bet Tracker was a very profitable venture with a number of good winners.  These are running hot right now, and although I’ve made a conscious effort to get on more of them, I realise the current rate of return can’t be maintained.  So let’s enjoy it whilst it’s like this then, shall we?  Just under 21 points profit from just over 15 points staked tell you just how hot these have run.  Long term I’d be delighted with a 5-8% ROI with these.

The Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker gave me a decent 15 point winning Lucky 15 in the shops to turn a nice profit.  I have to say I was pleased that although not a massive win, it was in a different shop to the big win I enjoyed the other week.  Always good to share the love around, I reckon.

These were the highlights, with the others making either a small profit or small loss, but overall, a really nice profit made, and all without “proper” football on too.

Betting 2023-24, from April 1st

AI Football: Staked 34pts, -1.134pts, roi -3.33%, High: 1.865pts, DD: -2.999pts, Max DD: -2.999pts.

Any Time Goal Scorer (Bookie Bashing Tools): Staked 33.3pts, +10.835pts, roi 32.53%, High: 11.935pts, DD: -1.1pts, Max DD: -1.1pts.

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 34pts, +10.25pts, roi 30.14%, High: 14.03pts, DD: -3.78pts, Max DD: -8.692pts.

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 4,560pts, +343.88pts, roi 7.54%, High: 343.88pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -596.38pts

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 350pts, +56.124pts, roi 16.03%, High: 56.124pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -16.801pts.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 100.2pts, +36.794pts, roi 36.72%, High: 36.794pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -4.506pts.

DD/HH: Staked 86.2pts, -2.3pts, roi -2.66%, High: 3.05pts, DD: -5.35pts, Max DD: -20.15pts.

Edwards Tips (Golf): Staked 156.35pts, -11.074pts, roi -7.08%, High: 24.028pts, DD: -35.102pts, Max DD: -35.102pts.

NFL strategy: Staked 9.5pts, +48.106pts, roi 506.37%, High: 48.106pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -0pts

PGA Profit: Staked 288.5pts, +57.836pts, roi 20.04%, High: 84.858pts, DD: -27.022pts, Max DD: -97.076pts.

Sys Analyst: Staked 391.5pts, +26.153pts, roi 6.68%, High: 62.535pts, DD: -36.382pts, Max DD: -45.614pts.

Touchdown Profit: Staked 6pts, +1.595pts, roi 26.58%, High: 1.5955pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -0pts

TOTAL ROI: 16.63%

A chip off the old block.

Regular readers of the Bet Diary will have seen one or two references to my son, a 20 year old student facing typical student problems.  That is, not having enough money.  He’s obviously been aware of my betting and realised that with a new address by his name, there is nothing stopping him from opening a set of his own bookmaker accounts.

Scrabbling together the beginnings of a betting bank by doing some ‘out of hours’ shifts at the local supermarket, and adding these funds to those he generated by matched betting when opening those accounts, this last week has seen him begin his own betting venture.

This has all piqued my interest.  I’m sure many of you will have read about, and listened to a couple of SBC podcasts recorded by Pete, Josh and myself, that talk about the five stages of betting and how strategies and approaches shift as you progress through each.  Typical of my lad, he’s decided he wants to do things a little differently, but after reading around the subject and doing some independently-minded thinking (he’s never listened to his Dad and he ain’t going to start now), he’s settled upon a strategy to get him going.  He’s going to concentrate on golf, but also target some of the bigger televised footie matches to place what appear to be “mug” bets in an attempt to add longevity to his accounts.  I can’t really argue with that.

I thought I might report back on a regular basis, because there will be others I’m sure, who are in Joe’s shoes and just starting out on their betting venture.  Either way, I’m fascinated to see what transpires, how he develops and grows his betting interests over time, and who he uses.  I’ll also post up his results regularly too.

As for my own betting, it’s been a very good week, but much more about that in Wednesday’s results post.

See you then.

Snooze fest and psychosis.

I hate international breaks in the footie.  Why?  Just why?

Last week was the very epitome of a ‘nothing’ week, and this week feels like the week before Christmas did when you were 11.  Every day so very slow, with not much to do except look desperately forward to opening your Scalextric/Subbuteo/ZX Spectrum (delete as applicable).  Come a week Saturday when there’s some proper football back, and I’ll be tearing off that wrapping paper like you’ve never seen.

A small overall loss last week with no service disgracing themselves or excelling.  Just a small profit or a small loss.  It really was very dull, which I suppose it is at least 80% of the time and is how it should be.

Interestingly, my lad has just started betting properly to generate some funds to help him through Uni, has scrabbled together a bit of a betting bank through doing shifts at ungodly hours at the local supermarket and through matched betting, and this week is “going live” as it were.  He’s started with golf, and he hates golf.  Moans when I have it on the telly, says it’s a daft game, etc.  After he’d stuck on his first few bets yesterday, I asked him if he was going to follow his players through the tournament.  Nah, he said.  Just check to see what happened on Monday.

I guess that’s the perfect approach.  Completely detached.  That it’s quite so clinical, and so detached as to verge on psychotic, has got me thinking a bit…

Anyway, more on his progress in future posts.  In the meantime, enough about him.  Here’s my (rather dull this week, sorry) figures…


Figures since 1st April, 2023

AI Football: Staked 30pts, +0.199pts, roi 0.66%, High: 1.865pts, DD: -1.666pts, Max DD: -1.666pts.

Any Time Goalscorer: Staked 32.2pts, +11.935pts, roi 37.06%, High: 11.935pts, DD: 0pts, Max DD: 0pts.

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 31pts, +10.924pts, roi 35.23%, High: 14.03pts, DD: -3.106pts, Max DD: -8.692pts.

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 4,420pts, -226.9pts, roi -5.13%, High: 135.39pts, DD: -389.29pts, Max DD: -596.38pts

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 332pts, +45.901pts, roi 13.82%, High: 48.257pts, DD: -2.356pts, Max DD: -16.801pts.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 84.9pts, +15.944pts, roi 18.77%, High: 17.944pts, DD: -2pts, Max DD: -4.506pts.

DD/HH: Staked 77.55pts, -4.9pts, roi -6.31%, High: 3.05pts, DD: -7.95pts, Max DD: -20.15pts.

Edwards Tips (Golf): Staked 133.35pts, +0.146pts, roi 0.1%, High: 24.028pts, DD: -23.882pts, Max DD: -23.882pts.

NFL strategy:

PGA Profit: Staked 288.5pts, +57.836pts, roi 20.04%, High: 84.858pts, DD: -27.022pts, Max DD: -97.076pts.

Sys Analyst: Staked 367.8pts, +25.285pts, roi 6.87%, High: 62.535pts, DD: -37.25pts, Max DD: -45.614pts.

Touchdown Profit:

TOTAL ROI: 9.26%

Twiddling my thumbs.

I have little to no time for international football until the actual competitions roll around.  I’ll stay up late to watch World Cup Final matches with the best of them, and in the days when I worked in an office, I’d rush home to catch the second half of afternoon European Championship games.  But qualifying matches and what seem like interminable friendlies do my head in.

This international break from domestic football is worse than any of the others.  The league has just started to gather momentum, some narratives just getting going, and exciting matches being enjoyed and then suddenly we’re thrown into a two week, deadly dull hiatus whilst trying to get excited about a match against the ‘Auld Enemy’ next week.  I remember as a kid England used to play in a televised series of games in what was called the British Championships.  Back then though, when there wasn’t non-stop live football on telly, the novelty of being able to tune in made for exciting viewing.  Or at least an interest in the games.  But now? Nah, not so much.

The knock on effect too, is days with very little to bet on.  Today, Monday, isn’t exactly overrun by enthralling racing.  There’s little by way of football in the evening.  It’s boring.  I’m a little envious of those who follow tennis tipsters – at least the US Open might lead to something other than the mundane.

On a brighter note, at least the NFL resumes with the start of a new season this weekend coming.  Looking forward to it.

Tune in on Wednesday for a results update.