Month: September 2019

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Hitting back! Tipster starts recovery with a bang.

Last week I wrote that Racing Service 3 was coming under some significant pressure as a result of ongoing underperformance.  Well, if he was feeling things a bit, RS3 responded magnificently last week and by doing so showed us just how quickly fortunes can change.

Now I’m not for one moment saying that one good week means that all is well.  What we need to see from RS3 and from other tipsters who will undoubtedly find themselves in a similarly tricky situation at some point, is sustained improvement over weeks and then months.  But there needs to be a start, and RS3 gave us a heck of a good one with a 12/1 winner on the Tuesday, and 14/1 and 6/1 winners on the Saturday.

We now need Football Lay Profits to do the same, as another losing weekend has extended the poor run.

It wasn’t too long ago that Football Service 2 was going through the doldrums somewhat too, but this month has seen a strong recovery and the service is quite comfortably the outstanding performer for September to date.

I’m not going to preach about the importance of patience in your betting.  I’ve done that often enough in the past and I’m guessing if you’re reading this you’re pretty serious about your gambling and already know how necessary it is at times to delay pulling the trigger on a service you’re following.  Having said that, it would be extremely naive to follow someone over the edge of a cliff (and believe me I’ve done that a few times), but you do need a good reason for stopping and drawing a line with a proven service.

Next week I’ll do a review of September, and after that I’ll write a couple of posts on what to look out for with a service, warning signs that might be worth paying heed to.

Main’ portfolio: ROI 4.74%, ROC 2.66%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI -15.34%, ROC -7.97%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 23pts, -7.7pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 46pts, -1.823pts.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 169.1pts, -24.17pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 14pts, +2.54pts

Golf Insider: Staked 48.5pts, -48.5pts.

MVS: Staked 46pts, +2.625pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 43.125pts, +3.365pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 32.9pts, +8.742pts.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 83.25pts, +25.475pts.

Tipsters under pressure.

It was a pretty poor week all round last week, but two tipsters have put themselves under some fairly severe pressure through continuing underperformance.

I’m rooting for him, but if you have read the SBC’s latest Tipster Profit Report, you will know that Racing Service 3 has been in the doldrums for a little while.  His place in the Hall of Fame is looking less secure and he needs to show signs of an improvement in his form sooner rather than later.  He has been through tough spells before of course, and it has been his ability to remain focused when under pressure that has seen him recover from them before pushing ahead again.  I’ve a feeling that crunch time has arrived however.  It hadn’t been a bad week for RS3 until an exceptionally busy Saturday saw a lot of bets and only one winner, the outcome being a pretty poor day.

The other service to suffer recently has been Football Lay Profits.  Last Sunday was another particularly poor day; not the first in recent times.  The result is a large deficit and already there has to be question marks over whether or not this season can turn a profit or not.  It can.  Of course it can.  But we need to see a return to the consistency for which this service has been known in the past.  To be over 23 points down already for September, having ended August in excess of 10 points down is a loss of form that I don’t remember seeing from FLP in the past.  That may be my poor memory at play, and let’s retain some sense of perspective.  We have a 200 point bank set up, so a c.30-35 point drawdown isn’t setting off panic alarms, but nonetheless we could do with seeing a reversal in fortune if only to restore confidence.

This is not the time to panic.  I’m confident that neither RS3 nor FLP are doing so.  So let’s buckle up and brace ourselves…and hope that the good times return quickly for these two tipsters under pressure.

Main’ portfolio: ROI -4.17%, ROC -1.56%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI -19.4%, ROC -7.05%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 17pts, -4.95pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 32pts, -5.325pts.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 126.8pts, -23.71pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 8pts, +1.399pts

Golf Insider: Staked 31.5pts, -31.5pts.

MVS: Staked 30pts, +1.125pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 26pts, +4.937pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 16.9pts, +3.836pts.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 68.25pts, -3.175pts.

Tipsters – a breed of Superhumans?

I don’t think he’ll mind my saying so but Wayne of Northern Monkey was recently married.  He took a few days off by way of a honeymoon.  How dare he – I expect my tipsters to be working all day, every day in the pursuit of profit!

I jest, of course.  But there is a serious point to be made around just how hard the best tipsters work for their members.

How often have you, in your working life, really felt that you need a break, to go away for a few days and completely switch off from the day to day stress of your job?  There can’t be many, if any, who don’t feel like that at least a couple of times every year.  And yet the tipsters I follow appear to be complete workaholics.  Most of them I believe, have jobs outside of betting, and will no doubt have to cope with the pressures of work on top of the pressure they come under from running a tipping service.  To me, that sounds like a lot to handle, and yet rarely do they seem to go on holiday or take a break.

I’ve long felt that there’s a tendency by some to simply assume that tipsters live in some kind of tipping bubble, unaffected by outside factors such as work, having kids, or even something as small as suffering from a cold.  I know what it feels like to struggle out of bed in the morning, nose streaming and throat raw, feeling awful but knowing you have to get to work.  And then after a long and exhausting day, still feeling like death warmed up, collapsing into bed with a lemsip.  Imagine doing all that, but before the lemsip bit, having do all that you need to do to run your service – finding the bets, dealing with emails, all the admin stuff.

My view is that the tipsters I follow go to superhuman lengths to provide their members with a profit.  They must do.  We never hear them complain, but that doesn’t mean they’re not experiencing what the rest of us go through in day to day life, which of course they do.  To my mind, those that run their services professionally and with care, are to be congratulated for the effort they put into doing so.

Portfolio performance for September to date:

A solid if unspectacular start to the month.  It was good to see the return to action of Football Service 1, although the timing of the season’s first break in domestic football for the interminably dull international break stymied somewhat the number of bets.  Only three, but all three won so a great start.  The aforementioned Northern Monkey returned too, celebrating the recent nuptials by knocking in a couple of decent winners, including a winning double.  Good to see Football Service 2 having some success, perhaps reward for taking stock after a recent poor spell and being a little more selective in his approach.

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 5.05%, ROC 0.94%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI -1.5%, ROC -0.22%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 6pts, -1.285pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 14pts, -1.25pts.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 46.7pts, -7.6pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 3pts, +4.189pts

Golf Insider: Staked 20.5pts, -20.5pts.

MVS: Staked 20pts, -3.625pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 12.5pts, +8.318pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 7.4pts, +2.006pts.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 23.75pts, +0.125pts.

August Review

August was a bit of a strange month in the sense that I took a week out to go away on holiday.  I’ve no idea to this date how each service performed whilst I was away, although I get the impression I may have missed out on some extra Northern Monkey profit as the official figures are a fair bit better than mine, and that is not usually the case.

I also know I missed a Golf Insider winner and all in it hasn’t been a good month for the Broxchange portfolio.  The situation wasn’t helped by the fact that it has only had Golf Insider and Football Lay Profits providing any action.  Football Service 1 returns this month to boost turnover and hopefully profit.

FLP is worrying me at the moment, I must admit.  The first month of the new season has seen a pretty bad loss in terms of points dropped and the trouble with a laying service is that it feels that losses can take a long time to recoup.  When you win (by your team not winning) you only benefit to the tune of 0.95 or 0.98 points, dependant on which exchange you placed the lay and the relevant rate of commission.  So a loss of ten points means you need 11 straight winning lays to get back on track.

This is all psychological of course, and one or two decent weekends will provide a different feeling I’m sure.

On the positives, then it’s fair to say that BetAlchemist, Racing Service 1 and Northern Monkey all excelled through August.  In light of this, it feels a little underwhelming when considering the overall ROI attained for the month was 8.3%.  Not a bad figure by any means, but one which makes me feel it could and perhaps should, have been so much better.

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 8.3%, ROC 4.4%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI -11.53%, ROC -3.96%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 39pts, +19.008pts, ROI 48.73%, ROC 19%.

Racing Service 1: Staked 66pts, +44.775pts, ROI 67.84%, ROC 22.38%

Football Lay Profits: Staked 147.35pts, -10.96pts, ROI -7.43%, ROC -5.48%

Football Service 1: n/a

Golf Insider: Staked 35pts, -16.112pts, ROI -46.03%, ROC -4.02%.

MVS: Staked 72pts, -10.8.75pts, ROI -15.1%, ROC -10.87%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 45.5pts, +31.054pts, ROI 68.25%, ROC 38.81%.

Football Service 2: Staked 22.75pts, -0.777pts, ROI -3.41%, ROC -1.94%.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 71.5pts, -24.55pts, ROI -34.33%, ROC -17.53%