The 8.20 over in Ireland, last Monday. I was on an 11/1 shot. I don’t often watch the races I’ve bet on, but I’d made an effort for this one.
My selection eased its way to the front about three furlongs out and struck for home, pulling a length or so clear. I was strangely calm, not really feeling any real emotion. Sure, I was hopeful, but there was still a long way to go. A cool cucumber like me doesn’t get all het up in moments like this. It’s just another bet, at the end of the day.
Except it wasn’t.
It was only when about 100 yards from the post that my horse was overtaken. It had been a bold effort, but backed each way the second place finish had merit, and a return. The thing is though, that that beast was the fourth leg of a Lucky 15 that had already produced winners at 14/1, 22/1 and 7/1!!!! I was 100 yards away from a five figure payout.
Was I b*!llocks as “cool as a cucumber”! I was shouting that nag on so loud my neighbours must have wondered what on earth was going on. Was I disappointed? Not really. A four figure sum was compensation.
The bet landed a profit of over 108 points. The bank is only 100 points. And this to go on top of the 90-odd point earning Lucky 15 of a few weeks ago.
I realise that I am experiencing extreme positive variance. This cannot go on, it’s that simple. But by ‘eck I’m going to enjoy it whilst it lasts. For those interested, I don’t have any science-based logic behind why I pick the horses for the Lucky 15s that I do. I do use the Racing Pro version, for those familiar with the Bookiebashing product. But beyond that, I just try to have a spread of different odds within the Lucky 15 and within those parameters tend to go for the horses offering the most +EV. I’ll have one horse at 9/1 or under, two between 10/1 and 14/1, and one longer shot going up to 25/1. And that’s it. That’s my “strategy”.
I’m fully expecting a sizeable drawdown. It’s just got to happen now. Hasn’t it?
Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 142pts, -9.93pts, roi -6.99%, roc -9.93%, High 0pts, DD -9.93pts, Max DD -24.338pts
Northern Monkey (80): Staked 221.5pts, -42.168pts, roi -19.03%, roc -52.71%, High 0pts, DD -42.168pts, Max DD -45.043pts
The Value Bettor (40): Staked 9.75pts, +1.46pts, roi 14.97%, roc 3.65%, High 2.71pts, DD -1.25pts, Max DD -2pts
BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 220pts, +291.292pts, roi 132.44%, roc 291.29%, High 0pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -13.388pts
Racing Totals: ROI 42.52%, ROC 76.28%.