So it’s the end of Month 2 of 2024, and where are we standing?

Well, it could be a lot, lot worse, but the ROI remains a little under the long term 10% target, although a strong second half to February has brought it up considerably.  The figures aren’t quite completely up to date as I’ve a couple of slips to take to the shops to pick up the returns, but they’re as near as dammit.  We’re likely talking a 0.1% difference in overall ROI, either for the good or bad.

I’ve been using the freebie SBC Account Angel service for a few weeks now and have racked up a fair few bets.  I don’t expect to make any money with this service over the long term.  It’s not geared towards being a tipster service, but more a method to utilize in the endless quest to maximize the lifespan of our online bookmaker accounts, so I see the 3.87% ROI I’m currently sitting on as something of a bonus.  I’ll give some more thoughts on the experience of following in a post soon.

The Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker and the Lucky 15 football bets derived from it have hit another profit high, and (clearly) it’s all going swimmingly at the moment.  Like the previous week, there hasn’t been one outstanding, big win, which I’m hopeful will happen sooner or later.  Rather a nice nine point return on one Lucky 15 and a series of smaller wins that all mounted up.  Obviously a fair number of losing Lucky 15s too, but right now this is proving to be something of a gold mine.  I think there’s something in the offing in the not too distant future from the SBC, delving deeper into this strategy.

By contrast, the horse racing Lucky 15s from the BB Racing Tracker remain in deficit, but encouragingly over 60% of the losses incurred on the way to hitting a drawdown lowpoint, have now been clawed back.  Of course it could dip again, but equally we might hit that big winning ticket that nets 50-100 points in one fell swoop and suddenly we’re admiring a really high ROI.  That will happen, it’s just a matter of when.  This is probably the longest period of drawdown I’ve experienced with these since starting to place the Lucky 15s two years ago.  My faith in them has not been eroded one tiny bit.

The bets taken from the Bookie Bashing Bet Tracker/Combo Tracker and those I find myself (mainly Any Time Goalscorer bets) continue to confound, and in a very good way!  So far through 2024 these have just shaded the Early Pay Out Tracker bets, and in fact this strategy is the most prolific so far in 2024, based on ROI and bank growth.  I keep telling myself they can’t continue in this vein and I’m living in a metaphorical brace position mentality, waiting for the “correction”.  Perhaps I should stop worrying.  But whatever way I look at it, a 30%+ ROI just cannot be sustainable, can it.  I mean…Can it?!?

A small, but steady profit again this weekend from Sys Analyst keeps things ticking over and pushed the profit to a new ytd high again.  Bring on Cheltenham!

And final comment reserved for Golf Betting Club.  No profit as yet, and last week was a fairly poor one by their own admission.  But I really am liking what I’m seeing here, especially the in-form angle that has brought something new to the party.  Needs time, as do all golf tipsters.  This one feels like it will reward patience.

Account Angel: Staked 1,025pts, +39.73pts. ROI 3.87%

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 2,655pts, +471.39pts, ROI 17.75%, ROC 31.42%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 1,142.5pts, -118.37pts, ROI: -12.2%, ROC: -7.89%

Golf (Win Only): Staked 150pts, -150pts, ROI -100%, ROC -15%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 2,100pts, -152pts, ROI: -7.23%, ROC: -10.13%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 1,709pts, +509.9pts, ROI: 29.83%, ROC: 33.99%

DD/HH: Staked 226.5pts, +19.5pts, ROI: 8.6%, ROC: 1.95%.

Golf Betting Club: Staked 440.5pts, -127.38pts, ROI -28.91%, ROC -8.49%

NFL strategy: Staked 94.5pts, +95.45pts, ROI: 101%, ROC: 9.54%

Sys Analyst: Staked 598.4pts, +276.81pts, ROI: 46.25%, ROC: 18.45%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 120pts, +75.44pts, ROI: 62.86%, ROC: 7.54%

TOTAL ROI: 8.27%

I know, I know.  Just the one Bet Diary post last week, but will be back to normal posting this week.  To be honest, after everything that had happened the previous week, and with my wife on half term (I should add she’s a teacher, not in 6th Form or anything!), we decided to take a couple of days off and go and chill out a bit.  A couple of lunches out, and cold walks home due to having had too much to drink to be able to drive, it was just what the doctor ordered.  But it did mean there was just the one BD post.  Back properly in the saddle this week, and the next post will be on Wednesday with a full results update.

The weekend just gone produced another healthy enough profit.  The second weekend is succession, and the first time this year so far that has been the case.  The ROI is creeping up to the long term 10% target, and the bottom line cash made figure is actually ahead of schedule.

Contributing to the coffers this weekend was Weekly Golf Value, which coughed up one winner at 55/1 (Darius van Driel) and almost a second 100/1 winner.  The nicely staked Big Finn Sami Valimaki though, after going odds on to win the Mexico Open part way through the final round, finished up in second place.  That I think, is the 372nd second place we’ve had this year so far!  Seriously, I’ve never known anything like it.  With the winner on the DPWT event, a double up would of course, have been sweet, but it was not to be.

The profit from van Driel wasn’t perhaps what you might expect with the stake the bet was carrying on the lower-than-normal size.  In their email to members today, WGV stated this was down to the fact that liquidity for the event, which wasn’t exactly one of the big tournies on the Tour, was light.  I get why they did it, but it’s a bit of a shame nonetheless.  Still, I’m not complaining.  A profit is a profit and the winner of a golf tournament is never to be sniffed at or taken for granted.  Who knows how long it will be until the next one?

A good chunk of profit again from the Early Pay Out Tracker, with one Lucky 15 netting a nine point profit.  Not massive, but all I’m seeing from this method is consistent profit growth.

So a week that provided nothing spectacular, but a good, solid performance that keeps the upward curve in the profit and loss line.

More details on Wednesday.

I’m very aware that a number of readers have been good enough to email me over the last week/ten days or so with questions and comments.  I will be getting back to each email and address questions within these posts, so please bear with me if you are one of those that have.  There was no Bet Diary post last week, as I was given the starkest of lessons in just how much we take for granted good health, how precious life is, and how short it can be.

All of which meant that the day-to-day betting went out of the window for a few days.  The weekend just gone was back to normal, and it proved to be the most profitable of 2024 so far, dragging the overall ROI up to a level of respectability, if still lagging a bit behind where I would want and expect it to be long-term.  This despite the only bets that were placed during the week – on golf – proving to be fruitless.

2024 Betting: Total ROI 6.8%

Still rattling along in the lead of my 2024 tipster and strategy league table are the Value Bets taken from the Bookie Bashing Bet/Combo Bets Tracker.  Occasionally you see bets that carry BIG value, and not always those gained by Odds Boosts or the like.  Take this Sunday when a bet on the corners market offered on a Spanish Liga 1 match was landed, sourced from the William Hill #YourOdds offers.  Not only are these the sort of bets that online books like to see you take, but when the perceived value is at 115%+ and the price at 2/1, it means a sizable stake.  They don’t all win of course, but over time I’m more than confident these will make a decent profit, and so it is proving this year so far.  I’ve taken 81 bets since January 1st, many using cash at  the shops, and others online as described above.  My only filter is that I need to see a minimum perceived value of 105%.  32 winning bets later, and the ROI is at a ridiculous 34% and bank growth of 33%.  I appreciate the sample is very small.  I appreciate that level of ROI is clearly unsustainable (I’m hoping for 5-6% long term).  But just now, I’m enjoying the ride.

Bookie Bashing Value/Combo Bets Tracker: Staked 1,449pts, +494.43pts, ROI: 34.12%, ROC: 32.96%

In second place is the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker, and the strategy of putting four teams in Lucky 15s, and placing 5 Lucky 15s down per day.  This clearly provides high turnover, with the aim of reducing variance.  So far the tactic has worked extremely well, and Saturday saw four teams come in, including one at a price of 15/2.  My natural caution means that my approach is to look to have one team at odds of 3/1 or higher in each set of four, and three at any price up to 3/1; very similar to the way I look to structure the Lucky 15s I stick down on the horses (albeit at different odds bands).  The full house on Saturday landed just over 22 points profit, with all the other Lucky 15s generating a very small loss between them.  This very neatly illustrates the strategy – look to tick over, making a little, losing a little, waiting for the big win which will inevitably come if you give it long enough.

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 2,265pts, +413pts, ROI 18.23%, ROC 27.53%

The last few months have been a testing period for Sys Analyst and I’m still a fair way from my last previous high which was back in the autumn.  But, to say there are signs of a recovery is something of an understatement as a consistent supply of winners in 2024 sees me rattling along at an ROI for the year of 50%!  In an email to members this week, Allan pointed to an above average numbers of near misses that has badly affected returns, whilst acknowledging that this is all part of the game and at other times the breaks go for you and not against you.  This is where experience in any tipster you follow can be invaluable.  An ability to adapt, to continue to trust in the methodology, to not panic and remain calm is paramount.

Allan lowers his stakes a little whenever a particularly bad run hits, but from this week he is raising them back up to the “normal” level.  Reading his email made me think of old favourite The Value Bettor, and how focus on tipping realistically achievable prices in markets holding sufficient liquidity is necessary as the bookmaking environment we’re operating in is so poor.  This one factor is shaping how honest tipsters work.  Those that are happy to simply quote headline prices which no-one is going to be able to either get consistently or if they somehow manage to, keep their accounts open for any length of time, can get in the bin.  Those like Allan, and many others monitored by the SBC and who find themselves in the Hall of Fame, are to be cherished.  This quote from Allan’s  email sums it all up: “I have evolved the service continually to change with the times, and these days, it’s OK to bet on the big races early, but the low class, low hanging fruit type races may be easy to make a big profit on, but no good for winners as they are account closers.”

Sys Analyst: Staked 504.9pts, +254.04pts, ROI: 50.31%, ROC: 16.93%

That’s all for now.  Next post will see more results and a question answered on dealing with a busted bankroll.

Until then…

After a reasonably profitable week – nothing spectacular mind – I’ve managed to haul myself back above the break even line for 2024.  Just.  An ROI of 0.5% seems like not much return for a lot of running around.  In reality of course, five weeks of betting is nothing in the wider context of things.

Most of the profit came from one Lucky 15 bet from the Bookie Bashing Early Payout Tracker which returned 16 points.  It was one of many such Lucky 15s struck last week, with the vast majority of them producing a deficit, but much like the horse racing Lucky 15s it’s about waiting for the good one to hit home, and one was enough to see us nicely into the black.

Golf Betting Club found 14/1 winning favourite Joaquin Niemann in the LIV Golf event.  I’m not too sure what happened there, but Niemann went off like the clappers but did something to merit being punished with a two shot penalty.  Fending off Sergio Garcia in a play off the odds were landed, and further profit was made by 100/1 in play bet Ockie Strydom who landed the place spoils by finishing in a tie for 4th.  Got to admit, halfway through the final round on Sunday the South African was tying for the lead and just one or two hopes were allowed to creep in.  Alas, not to be, but a solid all round week for GBC.

It is still the Value Bets from the Bookie Bashing Bet Tracker leading the way for profit this year so far, and the ROC figure for these has now reached 20%.  I can’t help feeling that a “correction” of sorts is due, as the 33% ROI is about 25-28% higher than I would expect it to be long term.

And finally for notable contributions, it was fantastic to see Sys Analyst enjoy a really good day on Saturday with a couple of very nice winners.  Over the past week or so it’s gone from enduring a period of relative struggle to a service now boasting an ROI of just shy of 50% for the year to date.  How quickly fortunes can change!

Betting 2024

Account Angel: Staked 470pts, +82.1pts. ROI 17.46%

AI Football: Staked 792pts, -4.84pts, ROI: -0.61%, ROC: -0.48%

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 1,380pts, +122.84pts, ROI 8.9%, ROC 8.18%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 707.5pts, -132.98pts, ROI: -15.81%, ROC: -7.45%

Golf (Win Only): Staked 150pts, -150pts, ROI -100%, ROC -15%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 1,365pts, -425.1pts, ROI: -31.14%, ROC: -28.34%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 908pts, +300.88pts, ROI: 33.13%, ROC: 20.05%

DD/HH: Staked 124.5pts, -3.5pts, ROI: -2.81%, ROC: -0.35%.

Golf Betting Club: Staked 302.5pts, -69.74pts, ROI -23.05%, ROC -5.81%

NFL strategy: Staked 94.5pts, +95.45pts, ROI: 101%, ROC: 9.54%

Sys Analyst: Staked 289pts, +143.53pts, ROI: 49.66%, ROC: 9.56%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 120pts, +75.44pts, ROI: 62.86%, ROC: 7.54%

TOTAL ROI: 0.51%

I’ve not yet been out to do the rounds of the bookies and pick up returns for bets struck over the weekend, so the results post will have to wait, as is usual, until Wednesday.  In the meantime however, folk have started to email in questions after last week’s appeal, so I thought I’d drop a quick post to answer the first of them.

Moving forward, I’ll attack each emailed question chronologically, so if you do email in, please don’t worry if there’s a short wait before I address yours.  I’ve already a (small) backlog, but the interaction is very welcomed and hopefully benefit the wider readership.  So if you have any queries, send them through.

So, issue No.1, and Nathan has asked about AI Football.  Nathan joined the service as it sounded promising but found that the selections came through very early (UK time), which they do, and that as a consequence he was finding it really difficult to get the quoted prices.

To be honest, I know where Nathan is coming from.  When I first started following I was finding it often tricky getting the quoted prices, but to be fair AI Football does quote a minimal acceptable price, and getting on above that level I found straightforward a lot more times than not.  From memory, there were only a couple of instances when I wasn’t able to get at least the minimum price, and nine times out of ten, above it, if a couple of ticks short of the quoted odds.

However, I’ve found things have changed a bit since then, and sadly a likely consequence of performance not being what I imagine AI Football would like it to be.  The past couple of months have been fairly challenging and we’ve seen something of a drawdown.  This year to date hasn’t seen any real losses, but nor has it made any profit as you’ll see from the weekly figures update.  Since September, the service is around 15 points down to level stakes with November being particularly tricky.

These runs happen of course, and I’m not calling time on it just yet, or anything like it.  The track record until the autumn was a strong one and it has earnt time.  But – and I’ve seen this happen with other services over the years when they encounter a difficult period – with a drawdown comes people losing faith, and with that process comes quoted prices that are easier to get because fewer people are backing the tips.  I don’t know, but I think this is probably what has happened with AI Football.  Certainly my own experience is telling me that I’m generally achieving the quoted prices on most tips fairly easily, and with teams from the bigger leagues, I’m often getting higher than the quoted odds.

I very much hope AI Football will return to form.  There are no guarantees, naturally, but to put things into context, the drawdown is still only around 20% of the recommended bank, so we’re a long way from panic stations just yet.

So, time to take a look back at Month 1 of 2024…

Right, that’s that done.  Let’s concentrate on what comes next.  See you next week.

You may have gathered, January has not been a great month.  After essentially breaking even for the first three weeks, the past week has seen a bit of nightmare for the Bookiebashing Racing Tracker-derived Lucky 15s (-34.44% ROI, -21.7% ROC).  It’s been typical of what happens when you go on a bad run.  Plenty of second places (although always it feels, on different Lucky 15 slips), horses finishing a close 4th when the place part pays out on the first three, fifth when the pay out is first four, etc.  The month wasn’t helped by bad weather forcing the abandonment of meetings and it’s noticeable that the number of Lucky 15s I’ve placed is lower than usual.  There have been some promising signs that things are picking up over the last few days in terms of bet numbers, although nothing promising about the results!

The month could have been so much better, if just one or two of the bazillion second place finishes on Sunday afternoons and evenings in the golf had instead finished first.  I have never had so many second place finishes in such a short space of time.  It’s been brutal.  For bets placed by my lad using his accounts, with which we can exploit the value in the place prices and terms from the Bookiebashing Golf Tracker, losses have been contained (-8.27% ROI, -3.06% ROC).  Finishing second is not much use for the bets placed win-only on the Exchanges though, eh?

It’s not all been bad.  Touchdown Profit have had one heck of a season, and with five of the six bets I’ve placed in January winning, the ROI of 62.86% (ROC 7.54%) has been incredible.  Shame this is by far the lightest staked service/strategy I follow.  I have to be thinking of upping the betting bank/stakes next NFL season.

The big winner has been the Value Bets taken from the Bookiebashing Bet Tracker and from using some of the tools found on the site to find some value myself.  The total for January sits at an ROI of 31.7% and ROC of 16.97%, and was largely down to a couple of winners that were showing as carrying big value (and therefore, relatively big stakes).

So, a losing start to the year.  Let’s see what happens in February.

AI Football: Staked 720pts, -13.21pts, ROI: -1.83%, ROC: -1.32%

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 960pts, -48.61pts, ROI -5.06%, ROC -3.24%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 555.5pts, -45.95pts, ROI: -8.27%, ROC: -3.06%

Golf (Win Only): Staked 150pts, -150pts, ROI -100%, ROC -15%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 945pts, -325.55pts, ROI: -34.44%, ROC: -21.7%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 803pts, +254.63pts, ROI: 31.7%, ROC: 16.97%

DD/HH: Staked 74.5pts, -74.5pts, ROI: -100%, ROC: -7.45%.

Golf Betting Club: Staked 198.5pts, -127.74pts, ROI -64.35%, ROC -10.64%

NFL strategy: Staked 94.5pts, +95.45pts, ROI: 101%, ROC: 9.54%

Sys Analyst: Staked 241.45pts, +22.91pts, ROI: 9.48%, ROC: 1.52%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 120pts, +75.44pts, ROI: 62.86%, ROC: 7.54%

TOTAL ROI: -5.52%