AI Football, and getting prices.

I’ve not yet been out to do the rounds of the bookies and pick up returns for bets struck over the weekend, so the results post will have to wait, as is usual, until Wednesday.  In the meantime however, folk have started to email in questions after last week’s appeal, so I thought I’d drop a quick post to answer the first of them.

Moving forward, I’ll attack each emailed question chronologically, so if you do email in, please don’t worry if there’s a short wait before I address yours.  I’ve already a (small) backlog, but the interaction is very welcomed and hopefully benefit the wider readership.  So if you have any queries, send them through.

So, issue No.1, and Nathan has asked about AI Football.  Nathan joined the service as it sounded promising but found that the selections came through very early (UK time), which they do, and that as a consequence he was finding it really difficult to get the quoted prices.

To be honest, I know where Nathan is coming from.  When I first started following I was finding it often tricky getting the quoted prices, but to be fair AI Football does quote a minimal acceptable price, and getting on above that level I found straightforward a lot more times than not.  From memory, there were only a couple of instances when I wasn’t able to get at least the minimum price, and nine times out of ten, above it, if a couple of ticks short of the quoted odds.

However, I’ve found things have changed a bit since then, and sadly a likely consequence of performance not being what I imagine AI Football would like it to be.  The past couple of months have been fairly challenging and we’ve seen something of a drawdown.  This year to date hasn’t seen any real losses, but nor has it made any profit as you’ll see from the weekly figures update.  Since September, the service is around 15 points down to level stakes with November being particularly tricky.

These runs happen of course, and I’m not calling time on it just yet, or anything like it.  The track record until the autumn was a strong one and it has earnt time.  But – and I’ve seen this happen with other services over the years when they encounter a difficult period – with a drawdown comes people losing faith, and with that process comes quoted prices that are easier to get because fewer people are backing the tips.  I don’t know, but I think this is probably what has happened with AI Football.  Certainly my own experience is telling me that I’m generally achieving the quoted prices on most tips fairly easily, and with teams from the bigger leagues, I’m often getting higher than the quoted odds.

I very much hope AI Football will return to form.  There are no guarantees, naturally, but to put things into context, the drawdown is still only around 20% of the recommended bank, so we’re a long way from panic stations just yet.

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