Month: November 2019

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The ever-changing football betting markets – easier or harder to make a profit?

Let me put something to you.  Do you think that the increasing availability and use of statistics for top level football is making it harder to make money from football betting?

I – for my sins – support the not-so-mighty-at-present Arsenal.  I follow a few Arsenal related accounts on Twitter, and listen to two Arsenal-focused podcasts each week.  Increasingly so, much of the discussion centres around what the statistics are telling us (currently that Arsenal are undoubtedly, crap!). We have Expected Goals (xG), Expected Goals Against (xGA), Expected Goal Difference and points approximations, number of successful passes into the penalty box/final third, interceptions, pass success rate, etc. etc.  You get the gist.

Now either all this readily available and free to access information you might think, could well give the punter a potential edge.  If you’re prepared to put the graft in to read and interpret the stats, perhaps angles can be found, edges created.  Or…

Are the trading teams at the bookies now using all this info to price up matches more accurately and efficiently.  Is it becoming harder than ever to make ongoing profit from betting on top tier football?

I honestly can’t decide which way it’s going.

This has to be a consideration moving forward though.  It’s coming to the time of year when I like to sit down and think about the services to follow moving forward into the new year.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting we should all give up on betting on footie, far from it.  I can’t help thinking that for the bettor who specializes and becomes an expert on a particular footballing niche, whether that be lower/non-league football or whatever, the future remains bright.  But I do think it’s a question worth asking, and I’d love your thoughts…

Talking about thoughts and Comments on the Bet Diary, I was asked if I was going to replace the Morning Value Service with the new Precision Value offering.  The answer is that yes, I am (have).  And for simplicity, I’ll be backing the tips at all prices, not just those at up to 3/1 which the old service provided.

Despite a good start from Precision Value, the month as a whole has got off to a bit of a shocker.

Portfolio performance for November to date

Main portfolio: ROI -17.39%, ROC -3.13%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI -23.45%, ROC -5.07%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 7pts, +4.1pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 4pts, -1.9pts.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 68.9pts, -4.5pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 8pts, -5.341pts

Golf Insider: Staked 6pts, +3pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 6.5pts, +2pts.

Precision Value: Staked 27pts, +4.582pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 12pts, -1.927pts.

Racing Service 2: Staked 3.5pts, -3.5pts.

Racing Service 3: Staked 15.5pts, -10.1pts.

October review – a month as bad as the weather.

Is it ever going to stop raining?  Seriously, it’s bloomin’ wet, and has been for what seems like forever and a day.  Has the weather made it harder for tipsters through October?  It can’t make form reading any easier if there are on-going uncertainties over the ground conditions, but that shouldn’t effect the footballers, should it!?

October was not good.  I guess I was due a bad month, and October served one up for me.  Oh well, it had to happen at some point.

Of the nine services in action, only four ended in profit but the story really is that of those four only Racing Service 3 performed strongly.  On the other side of the coin, Football Service 2 had a dreadful time of it, Racing Service 1 not much better, and Golf Insider failed to produce a positive return from any pick.

Now as you know, I was away on holiday for the last third of the month and there’s no way I’m going to waste time going back to see “what I could have won”, as the late, great Jim Bowen might have said (host of gameshow Bullseye, for those of you not old enough to remember ’80s and ’90s television).  So I’m conscious that one or two of the services that ‘disgraced’ themselves in October may in fact have banged in winner after winner that I’ve subsequently missed.  If they did, please don’t tell me, eh?

It’s getting to that time of year that I’ll be reflecting and looking to see what services I might change for 2020.  I’m aware too that I’ve still to round up thoughts on knowing when to drop a service, so we’ll resume that particular thread next week.

Until then…

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI -11.85%, ROC -5.92%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI -6.25%, ROC -3.18%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 25pts, +4pts, ROI 16%, ROC 4%.

Racing Service 1: Staked 32pts, -23pts, ROI -71.87%, ROC -11.5%

Football Lay Profits: Staked 143.8pts, +4.83pts, ROI 3.35%, ROC 2.41%

Football Service 1: Staked 20pts, +0.097pts, ROI 0.48%, ROC 0.19%.

Golf Insider: Staked 41pts, -41pts, ROI -100%, ROC -10.25%.

MVS: Staked 44pts, -5.875pts, ROI -13.35%, ROC -5.87%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 52pts, -9.267pts, ROI -17.82%, ROC -10.29%.

Football Service 2: Staked 25.95pts, -9.981pts, ROI -38.46%, ROC -24.95%.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 48pts, +16.737pts, ROI 34.86%, ROC 11.95%.