Those of you who follow the Bet Diary closely will be aware that Football Lay Profits have had a somewhat torrid time of things lately, and in fact the year as a whole has underwhelmed for the service. Members were sent an lengthy email last week that provided theories for why this might be so and to reassure followers that measures were being taken to turn performance around.
This is admirable and provides evidence of a tipster who has a desire to do well by their customers. It is a fair point too, to say that a tipster must continually be evaluating their edge, it’s potential erosion, and opportunities for the exploitation of an edge elsewhere. In FLP’s case, this might mean concentrating on dropping some leagues as a source of lays and finding others.
This is a task fraught with difficulties. The last thing anyone wants is a system or method that looks superb historically but which, however unintentionally, has been backfitted (please note, this is NOT what I am suggesting FLP has done!). The fact is that the proof of an edge is revealed by the eating of the pudding, and not until. The problem of course is that that ‘eating’ process means risking hard cash in the form of placing bets.
From a purely personal perspective, I’m afraid this is not something I wish or choose to do. I’d rather take a watching brief to see if a tipster who is adapting to changing market conditions, closing off some previously profitable angles and introducing new ones to replace those lost, can do so successfully.
It is true that the best tipsters can modify their methods and strategies to stay ahead of the markets. I’d go as far as to say that they have to if they have any hope at all of longevity. I just would rather not be risking my hard earned whilst they go through the process. It is for that reason that I’m drawing a temporary halt to following the FLP lays. I sincerely hope to jump back onto the action in the near future.
Portfolio performance for November to date
Main portfolio: ROI 2.83%, ROC 1.24%.
Individual Service Performance
Bet Alchemist: Staked 25pts, +35pts.
Racing Service 1: Staked 31pts, -19.4pts.
Football Lay Profits: Staked 68.9pts, -4.5pts.
Football Service 1: Staked 18pts, -2.816pts
Golf Insider: Staked 29.5pts, +4.045pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 24.75pts, -6.3pts.
Precision Value: Staked 87pts, +26.781pts.
Football Service 2: Staked 25pts, -6.036pts.
Racing Service 2: Staked 14.75pts, +4.625pts.
Racing Service 3: Staked 44.5pts, -15.7pts.