It’s been a good week for Northern Monkey.  It is now the service I have followed for the longest period of time and it was nice to see Wayne’s service picking up the Best Racing Tipster and Best Overall Tipster gongs in the 2017 SBC Tipping and Betting awards.  When you consider that Northern Monkey is picking up each of these prizes for the third consecutive year, then we have to acknowledge that here is a tipping service that has made consistency it’s hallmark.

Changing times but excellence maintained

What makes the achievement even more impressive is that, to my mind anyway, the horse racing tipster world is a far more competitive one than that which NMP was born into back in the early stages of 2010.  Over the years Wayne has undoubtedly improved his tipping skills and has developed into the consummate professional.

I do frequently find myself wondering how testing and wearing being a tipster must be, and for purely selfish reasons, I hope Wayne is not too wearied just yet..  I guess stress and strain are each easier to deal with when results are good and you’re picking up prizes, but there must be times when all successful tipsters find the going particularly heavy.

Plenty come, plenty go

The fact is that over the years I have seen so many tipsters come, burn brightly, and then burn out.  That a tipster can remain focused and perhaps most importantly of all, motivated, is one of the hardest skills to perfect.  There’s a natural inclination to believe that what gives a betting expert an edge is simply the ability to identify value betting opportunities, and of course it is.  But just as important is the ability to keep a level head and a consistent approach to exploiting their edge, remaining unaffected by winning spells and losing runs.

All of which must be extremely testing to the tipster’s psychology.  Especially when you bring into the equation that many tipsters have families and full time jobs to contend with too.  They are affected by the things that happen in life just as you and I are, but they operate in an extremely unforgiving and hostile environment.  When they make mistakes, they are ruthlessly exposed – we and they lose cold hard cash.  I’m not too sure I could do it.

Betting from Saturday 18th February to Friday 24th February

Of the six racing tipsters in the portfolio, none showed a profit this last week, and if it wasn’t for a fantastic weekend for Pinpoint Golf, which came pretty close to a 1,000/1 winner, the last week would have been a nightmare.  As it is, it ended up showing a marginal profit which under the circumstances, I’ll gladly take.

Chasemaster simply can’t buy a winner at present although they were few and far between across the board.  The only notable successes were Northern Monkey’s Zac Brown (Lingfield – 10/1) last Saturday and Will Lattimore’s Suyoof (Meydan – 8/1) on Thursday.

Here are the figures for the month to date:

Chasemaster: Staked 23pts, -14.25pts.

Jason James: Staked 101pts, +38.91pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 42pts, +5.83pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 40.75pts, -5.67pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 6.125pts, -1.625pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 63pts, +0.95pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 7pts, +0.04pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 137.25pts, +19.3pts.

February’s performance to date: ROI 3.78%, ROC 1.38%.

Jason James sent an email out to members this week, part of which I found particularly interesting, simply because it addressed something that I have often wondered about.

We all understand about the necessity of finding value if we are to bet profitably, right?  I get that, but what I have more difficulty getting my head around is what price represents value.  I know Racing Tipster A has in the past, pointed out that the horses he finds that are backed in after the on course market opens are highly profitable, and even if taking SP profitability remains strong.  This means that he could tip a horse at say, 10/1, but even if it opens on course at 8s and is backed in further to 6s, the 6s is still worth taking.  Would I take 6s ten minutes after a tip has been issued at 10s?  No, I wouldn’t.

Jason attacked this issue of value very succinctly: “Value to me is in the eye of the beholder a bit like the beauty I see in my missis as I see her as the most beautiful person i have ever seen for one reason or another while other people may see her as just plain pug ugly!”

Value is in the eye of the beholder!  And I guess that those that have an “eye” for value are those that make money.  It is those tipsters that can be accurate in their subjective calculations and estimations that will make us money in the long term.

On another point, I have noticed that I have benefited from the BOG concession with Jason’s tips recently.  The latest winner to get a boost in price from BOG was Suzi’s Connoisseur, tipped up at 6/1 and going off at 9/1 on Tuesday.

The issue of BOG and it’s application to a tipster’s performance record was something at the forefront of my mind after writing a review of a service that you can read in the latest SBC Betting Magazine which was released on Friday.  You can see quite clearly the benefits that having BOG can bring, but as punters who expect to win, I believe that we have to view BOG as something of a bonus and not something we can rely upon in the long term.  With my new set of accounts I’m certainly pleased to have the concession as a temporary part of my armoury, but know it can’t and won’t last.  That said, I am taking every conceivable effort to extend it’s lifespan for as long as possible, spreading bets around bookmakers like you wouldn’t believe.  So far, so good.

Let’s  make BOG hay whilst the sun shines, and if you’re just starting out on your betting adventure, make the most of it whilst you can!

Betting from Saturday February 11th to Friday February 17th

A small step backwards this week.

Jason James continues in fine form, with Saturday netting 13.7 points of profit and Thursday 12.4 points.  Highlight of the week was probably a 2 point win bet (the standard is 1 point) on Outer Space – Chelmsford – 8/1.

It was a second consecutive good week for MVS (Lite) and anyone playing the old doubles system with this service should have made a decent profit over the last few days too.

Nasty losses though for Chasemaster and Pinpoint Golf however, meant the week produced an overall loss – ROI -12.8%, ROC -1.57%.

Here are the figures for the month to date:

Chasemaster: Staked 18pts, -9.25pts.

Jason James: Staked 70pts, +47.41pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 28pts, +8.33pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 25pts, -3.92pts.

Racing Tipster A: Staked 3.75pts, +0.75pts.

Racing Tipster B: Staked 46pts, 2.05pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 95.25pts, -26.3pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 6pts, +1.04pts.

February’s performance to date: ROI 4.62%, ROC 1.17%.

Do you want to bet to make money, or do you want to simply do it for fun?  In other words, do you really care about what you are betting on as long as you make a profit, or do you only want to put bets into markets you know something about or have a real interest in?

These are really good questions to ask yourself.

The “fun” is in counting up the profit

I have bet on some really “strange” things in my time; Eastern European women’s netball, Hungarian Division 2 football…you name it, I’ve probably bet on it.  Now I do like my footie, but I’m no expert on the Hungarian leagues!  But I really couldn’t have cared a less about this when I placed my bet.  My trust was with a tipster who did know about Hungarian football, and I was placing the bet with the aim of beating the book.

I DO have a strong interest in English Premiership football, but even now, a very small proportion of my bets concern this league.  This is a sport that the bookies are all over.  They take millions of pounds and euros, not to mention yen, yuan and rupees over in Asia, and they therefore pour huge resources into making sure they price up the matches accurately.  To eke out a profit in Premier League football, you really do need to know your stuff.  Creating an edge in these markets is incredibly difficult, and therefore I’d rather be investing my money into markets which are considerably easier to gain an advantage.

So if you don’t like betting on tennis, but you find a tipster with a long-term proven edge in the sport, why would you not follow?  We’re betting simply to make money, aren’t we?

The bottom line is all that counts

The reality is that the bottom line is all that should matter to us.  Yes, of course you must examine the tipster you’re considering following to ensure the practicalities are in line with your own personal circumstances.  Can you get the bets on promptly and secure the right prices?  But if they do, and you can, then whether or not you like the sport you’re betting on really is an irrelevance.

Pre-conceptions are dangerous things.  Pre-conceptions are generated through personal experience.  Just because you find it nearly impossible to identify a horse with four working legs, never mind one that is capable of running fast enough in the conditions to have a chance of winning the race, can’t put you off utilizing the expertise of someone who can.

Let’s face it, an awful lot of people go to work to do jobs they don’t particularly enjoy doing.  But they go anyway, because at the end of the week or month, they get a payslip and money goes into their account.  It’s the same with betting.  Don’t go putting on any blinkers you don’t need to wear.

Betting from February 1st to Friday February 10th

A good start to the month, building on January’s success.

Last Saturday was a spectacular day for Jason James as he nailed a 33/1 winner (Ballythomas – Musselburgh).  The guy’s ROC figures are now at a ridiculously high level for the time he has been tipping commercially.  Extremely impressive stuff.

Elsewhere it has really been a case of solid accumulation.  The only other really notable winner was provided by Racing Service A, again last Saturday, in the shape of Baie Des Iles – 8/1 – Punchestown.  But you know what?  I like solid accumulation. I really do.

Here are the figures for the month:

Chasemaster: Staked 11pts, -2.25pts.

Jason James: Staked 40.5pts, +24.26pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 16pts, +2.5pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 13.5pts, -2.55pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 2pts, +2.5pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 22.5pts, +6.6pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 5pts, +2.04pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 29.25pts, +0.75pts)

February’s performance to date: ROI 21.11%, ROC 2.74%.

Flippin’ ‘eck!  How quickly does time go by?  It only seems a minute ago since it was Christmas!

So the first month of our betting year is complete, and a very nice, profitable month it has been too.  Of the eight services in the portfolio, only one made a loss, and when this happens progress is always going to be fairly smooth.  That’s how January has felt – smooth.  There were no massive dips in performance, no big drawdowns.  Just an easy path to profit, and I love it when it’s like this.  It makes the game feel easy.

But of course the game is anything but easy.  There will be testing times to come.  It’s not a matter of if, but when.  No point in losing any sleep though.  Let’s just enjoy a good run whilst it lasts.

January’s Figures

The total figures for January’s betting are: ROI 17.61%, ROC 7.42%.

The outstanding performer of the month was undoubtedly Northern Monkey.  Puzzlingly, when I look at the service’s official results, I seem to have staked an extra half a point. Goodness knows where that was!  My return of +22.66 points is 1.57 points greater than Wayne’s record, highlighting again the fair price settlement policy that he employs.  ROI 41.45%, ROC 28.33%.

Jason James‘ year got off to a flying start.  After the first week/ten days, things slowed a little for him, but nevertheless a strong profit was made through the month as a whole.  Without giving away too much, his February has got off to a similarly explosive start, so let’s hope for more of the same through the next few weeks.  Notably introduced a subtly different odds recording policy and any move to make a service more follower friendly is to be admired.  It was this service too, that I benefited most from having new bookmaker accounts to use, with BOG concession included.  My figures of +25.41 points profit are on a different level to Jason’s non-BOG applied official result of +13.64 points, and 1.22 points more than Jason’s figures with BOG applied.  This pleases me immensely!  ROI 18.28%, ROC 12.57%.

The Morning Value (Lite) service is one that can make a profit in what I would describe as a ‘stealthy’ fashion.  Backing at the front end of the market and to level stakes means that there are never any spectacular wins.  So when profit accumulates, it’s done quietly.  There’s a lot to be said for this – it’s easy on the old ticker!  ROI 20.61%, ROC 7.63%.  

January tends to be a relatively quiet month for Racing Service A, lying as it does between the frenzy of Christmas racing in December and the Cheltenham Festival in March.  It is when winter is at it’s darkest and deepest too, with desperate ground conditions often the norm.  Exacerbating the issue is the tipster finding the midweek markets too weak to tip into, which I feel is a constant source of frustration to him.  In an effort to counter a lack of betting turnover a little, he is looking to issue more ‘Top Picks’, ie. horses at shorter prices that he doesn’t feel he can issue as an official tip because of the price, but which he feels have a darned good chance of winning.  I will add these to my official figures moving forwards from this point – their record is outstanding.  Despite the small number of bets, it was a successful month.  ROI 51.79%, ROC 7.25%.

It was a similarly quiet month for the Football Service 1.  Just 11 bets issued, turnover no doubt effected by the third and fourth rounds of the FA Cup reducing the number of league games played.  Still, a good profit returned.  ROI 32.63%, ROC 7.18%.

Back to horse racing and it has been a solid enough start to the year for Racing Service B.  It’s still not reaching the spectacular heights of the past, but a definite return to form this month.  If he can maintain this gathering momentum through February, then I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a massive month posted in the near future.  Who knows, it could even be this month.  ROI 11.61%, ROC 5.81.

A more or less break even month for Chasemaster.  ROI 4.03%, ROC 1.63%.

And finally, the only bum note for January – Pinpoint Golf.  Not a disastrous month by any means and with the Tours getting into full swing now, there’s a lot of betting action to look forward to.  I am giving serious consideration to incorporating the Top 10 and Top 20 bets that are issued but which don’t go down on the ‘official’ slate.  I can see their value in that they should theoretically cut down the losing runs that are an inevitable part of golf betting, and their historical performance is strong.  It would necessitate a change in bank/staking, so some thought necessary before taking the plunge.  ROI -15.37%, ROC -7.43%.

Until next time.

Rowan Day