Month: March 2019

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The betting week following Cheltenham is always likely to be a bit of anti-climax, I guess.  But boy, was last week dull!?!

Saturday’s racing kinda set the tone.  There really was very little to get excited about with ITV Racing coming live from Kelso.  No disrespect to the Scottish Borders course.  It’s lovely, quaint even, but it’s not Cheltenham, is it?

As for my tipsters, it felt like many were feeling a post-Cheltenham hangover with action pretty thin on the ground.  Looking at the results over the week – an overall marginal loss – I wish I’d taken a week’s holiday.

Elsewhere, and we’ve seen yet another bookmaker’s UK operation go caput.  Following hot on the heels of BetBright, 188Bet announced this week that they were withdrawing from the UK market, citing ultra-competitive market conditions.  You know, it’s almost as if restricting punters to pennies, making silly new customer offers and generally trying to appeal to the lowest common denominator in terms of betting savvy is an unsustainable business model.  I wonder what would happen if these books actually traded in the way a “bookmaker” should, ie. by using skill and letting weight of money dictate price movements?  Couldn’t do any worse, eh?

And finally, if I may promote a podcast I listened to this week?  I’d recommend subscribing to the ‘Luck on Sunday’ podcast that is the pod form of Racing TV’s Nick Luck hosted weekly programme, and then sitting back with a cuppa or a glass of something stronger to listen to the Barney Curley interview.  Highly entertaining.

Portfolio performance from Monday 18th to Sunday 24th March

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI -1.45%, ROC -0.12%.

‘Starter’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Racing Service 2, Northern Monkey): ROI -25.77%, ROC -2.25%.

‘Broxchange’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Golf Insider): ROI -33.03%, ROC -1.65%.

Individual Service Performance

The Accountant: Staked 11pts, -2.428pts

Racing Service 1: Staked 4pts, +2.3pts.

Football Lay Profits: Staked n/a pts, n/a pts.

Golf Insider: Staked 18pts, -18pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 12pts, +5.491pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 5pts, -0.583pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 5pts, +0.82pts.

Racing Service 2: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.

Racing Service 3: Staked 11.5pts, -3.75pts.

Oh, I wish it could be Cheltenham…every day!

There’s very much a feeling of after the Lord Mayor’s show this week.  A bit like when you’ve gone back to work after a fantastic holiday, I find myself continually thinking, “this time last week…”.

Not only is the sport itself mesmerizing, but the profits always tend to be pretty good too.  Last week’s Festival proved to be a bumper week for betting, with the 5%+ total bank growth achieved over the four days about what I would consider to be coughed up during a good month.

A big tip of the hat to the tipsters who worked so diligently and conscientiously to produce that profit.  I can only imagine the level of work they each put into the week, and it is to be admired.  I know that Racing Service 2 was unable to come up with the goods last week, but I also know he put in hours and hours of work.   It was only for the rub of the green going against him with a couple of the tips that the week ended in a loss and not significant profit.  That must be tremendously frustrating – putting in such a level of effort without seeing the rewards for it is something that I think would drive me mad – but I guess that’s the nature of the game.

Overall, Cheltenham has made me pause to think, and realize just how much the guys whose services I follow deserve to do well.  They give everything, and that is to be admired.

Portfolio performance from Friday 1st to Sunday 17th March

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 10.73%, ROC 5.42%.

‘Starter’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, The Value Bettor, Northern Monkey): ROI 5.62%, ROC 4.35%.

‘Broxchange’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Golf Insider): ROI -0.58%, ROC -0.38%.

Individual Service Performance

The Accountant: Staked 37pts, +0.293pts

Racing Service 1: Staked 38pts, +22.675pts.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 147.01pts, +4.4pts.

Golf Insider: Staked 44.4pts, -26.4pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 27pts, +0pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 26.125pts, +13.007pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 17pts, -4pts.

Racing Service 2: Staked 30pts, -7pts.

Racing Service 3: Staked 56.75pts, +30.825pts.

Cheltenham Day 4: What A Week!

The dust has settled, and when looking back, what a fantastic four days of sport we’ve had this week.  It’s a cliché I know, but for highs and lows, there really is nothing to compare to the Cheltenham Festival.

To me, jump racing has soul, and whilst Royal Ascot and the other huge meetings on the Flat in the summer have their attractions, I don’t find them as stirring or as satisfying as I do Cheltenham, Kempton over Christmas, or Aintree in April.  Success at the top level of the sport as an owner is far more accessible to far more people over the sticks than it is the flat, and that’s even when allowing for the mighty powers of Gigginstown and JP McManus.  There are more stories that warm the heart, and then of course there is the utmost respect and admiration for both horse and jockey who literally risk their lives in every race for our viewing pleasure.

It helps, naturally, when you make a few bob on the week too, and that is definitely what has happened this year.  Let’s first provide the highlights of Day 4…

Racing Service 1 got off to a flyer with the first two home in the hugely competitive County Handicap Hurdle, Ch’tibello (8/1) and We Have A Dream (33/1).  With another selection placed in the last – Defi Bleu, 14/1 – it was another excellent day.

Northern Monkey couldn’t quite follow up the previous day’s heroics, and Racing Service 2 found it all a bit of a struggle again, although he did bow out with the winner of the last in Early Doors at 11/2.

Early Doors was a winner for Racing Service 3 too, as was Hazel Hill (11/2) in the penultimate race of the week.  With Coeur Sublime each way coming in second at 25/1 in the opening Triumph Hurdle, it was a great day for this tipster too.

Racing Service 1: Staked 8pts, +8.375pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 4.625pts, -3.593pts.

Racing Service 2: Staked 4pts, -0.75pts.

Racing Service 3: Staked 7pts, +11.875pts.

Day 4 ROI: 44.08%.

As for the week, it can only be called a great success.  Racing Service 1 was the most consistent whilst as was the case last year, Northern Monkey had one amazing day that ensured an exceptionally good week.  Racing Service 2 found it difficult after the first day and has admitted to questioning how he approaches Cheltenham week moving forward.  Finally, Racing Service 3 demonstrated his class.  Here are the figures for the week:

Racing Service 1: Staked 29pts, +18.75pts, ROI 64.65%.

MVS (Lite): Staked 1pt, +1.75pts, ROI 175%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 19.25pts, +16.482pts, ROI 85.62%.

Racing Service 2: Staked 19pts, -7.75pts, ROI -40.78%.

Racing Service 3: Staked 33.25pts, +18.275pts, ROI 54.96%.

Total ROI: 36.89%.  This equates to bank growth for the portfolio as a whole of 5.75% – that’s some achievement in four days!

Cheltenham Day 3: Forging Ahead Again.

So after a day each to me and the bookies, I’m pleased to say that, primarily due to the exploits of Northern Monkey and Racing Service 1, I’ve forged into the lead again with one day of the Festival to go.

Yesterday was a busy day for Racing Service 1 which got off to a flyer with the winner in the first – Defi De Seuil (3/1).  Cuneo (16/1) landed some place money in the next and Spiritofthegames (8/1) did likewise in the impossible looking Brown Advisory Handicap.  It was in the last race though that what had been a good day was turned into an excellent one, when Any Second Now (9/1) stormed home up the hill to win and The Young Master (16/1) gave up some more place money.

The Stayers Hurdle provided MVS (Lite) with their only Festival bet of the week to date and a successful one it was too when the redoubtable Paisley Park (7/4) came from a seemingly impossible position to land the spoils.

Northern Monkey had been experiencing a challenging week but yesterday the usual NMP tactic of antepost betting and getting stakes rolling onto selections via the use of multiples with horses running in bog standard weekday racing paid off….big time!  Wayne was all over Defi De Seuil and had backed it antepost at 11/1, and had also doubled it up with the winner of the second race Sire Du Berlais (11/2) – which had also been backed antepost at 14/1!  To add to that, Sire Du Berlais had been put in a double with a previous winner – so those two horses alone provided a heck of a profit.  That wasn’t all though, as the winner of the 4.10, Siruh Du Lac (8/1 antepost) won at 9/2.  Obviously there were losers too, but what a day for NMP.

Sadly, both Racing Service 2 and Racing Service 3 drew blanks on the day, but overall Day 3 has proven to be the best day yet this week.  Fingers crossed for Day 4.

Racing Service 1: Staked 8pts, +9.875pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 1pt, +1.75pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 6.625pts, +22.726pts.

Racing Service 2: Staked 7pts, -7pts.

Racing Service 3: Staked 5.75pts, -5.75pts.

Total ROI: 67.89%.

Cheltenham Day 2: The Bookies Strike Back

When I looked at today’s racing, I thought the card at Cheltenham looked near impossible.  Huge handicaps, no value in the Champion Chase in which Altior obviously dominated the market but looked foolhardy to oppose, and a Bumper to finish the day’s action in which all horses had won a race but hadn’t exactly visited the racetrack a prolific number of times.  And so it proved, as the tipsters all found the going heavy – figuratively as well as literally.

No winners for Racing Service 1, but a bit of good news in that I completely forgot yesterday to include their antepost selections for Day 1 which included Klassical Dream at 8/1.  I’ll add them to the end of Festival figures after Friday’s racing.  As for today’s action, they managed a couple of placed horses, but a loss on the day.

Things were going horribly for Northern Monkey; no winners yesterday and none today until the Cross Country Chase, the fifth race on the card.  But up stepped Tiger Roll, backed at 11/10 in a win double with a horse that had previously come in at 2/1, so a decent return that dragged the day into profit.

Nothing to report from Racing Service 2 which drew a blank today, although acknowledging that the racing was a form reader’s nightmare kept stakes sensibly low.

And finally, Racing Service 3 couldn’t continue yesterday’s excellent form, but by backing the extremely well-backed Envoir Allen in the last at 9/2 managed to essentially break even.

Day 2 Figures

Racing Service 1: Staked 5pts, -1.1pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 3pts, +1.725pts.

Racing Service 2: Staked 4pts, -4pts.

Racing Service 3: Staked 8.5pts, -0.25pts.

Total: ROI -27.71%.

Cheltenham Day 1: Here we go again.

For something different this week, I thought I’d blog day by day to cover the events of the Cheltenham Festival – something I did last year.  The meeting has, historically, been kind to me although I always get the feeling that things could so easily go very, very wrong.  If ever there was a meeting where betting success or failure is decided by very fine margins, it’s this one.

I’ll confess to some feelings of trepidation this morning when it became clear that heavy rain was due.  It’s impossible to say the extent to which the ground and going conditions will be effected and that must make the job of the tipster even harder.

So how did our tipsters fare?

It was a relatively quiet day for Racing Service 1 who issued just the three bets.  With two of the horses placing – Stormy Island – 8/1 in the 4.10 and Springtown Lake – 16/1 in the 4.50, a small profit was made.

If I remember correctly (and I may not), Northern Monkey made considerable hay on the first day of last year’s Festival.  Sadly, the opposite was true today.  We had eight horses running – a mix of singles and those with stakes rolled up as a result of multiples – and none of them even threatened to win.  Luck wasn’t on Wayne’s side as two of the more fancied runners, Buveur D’Air in the Champion Hurdle and Benie Des Dieux who went off as the odds on favourite in the Mare’s Hurdle, fell, the latter with the race at her mercy when upending at the last!  Not NMP’s day.

It looked like Racing Service 2 was also going to suffer from a dose of bad luck too when Kalashnikov – 9/1 was brought down in the Arkle when travelling well.  The rain scuppered the chances of Minella Rocco in the next but come the 4.50, things turned with A Plus Tard – 7/1.  You will never see an easier winner of one of Cheltenham’s ultra-competitive handicaps, 16 lengths the margin on the line between winner and second and it could have been twice that had the jockey so wished.

The honours for the day though go to Racing Service 3.  Sure, there were a couple of losers, but there was also Espoir D’Allen – 11/1, winner of the Champion Hurdle (backed without Apples Jade), supported by Big River – 28/1 which contributed a decent each way return by finishing in the frame of the 2.50.  Tower Bridge – 8/1 chased home A Plus Tard in the 4.50 for another return and all in, an excellent day for the Irishman.

Racing Service 1: Staked 3pts, +0.8pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 5pts, -4.375pts.

Racing Service 2: Staked 4pts, +4pts.

Racing Service 3: Staked 12pts, +12.4pts.

Day 1: ROI 46.06%.

Review: February 2019

A frustrating month that roughly splits into two parts.  The first half, which saw good profits rack up, especially from the likes of Racing Service 1, Racing Service 3, and Northern Monkey.  And then a second half that gave a fair chunk of that profit back.

It’s been something of a strange month too, with the outbreak of Equine ‘Flu bringing UK racing to a sudden halt for a few days.  Whether this disrupted the rhythm of the racing tipsters in the portfolio can never be ascertained with 100% certainty, but the figures suggest the outbreak had something of an adverse effect.

Racing Service 1 made a lot of profit over the very first weekend of the month, profit which ensured that February will go down as a good time, but the fact is that from that first weekend to the last, a loss was made.  Northern Monkey belied it’s reputation as something of a Flat racing specialist by having a good few weeks, and it was good to see Football Lay Profits perform well and regain much of January’s losses.

Not enjoying themselves as much was Football Service 2, but I’m confident this will be just a blip and a return to winning ways won’t be long in coming.

So, overall, a profit for each of the portfolios.  The best performer was the ‘Starter’ portfolio and stakes will raise slightly again through March to reflect the growth achieved.

Not a remarkable month by any means, but one that turned a profit, and I’ll never complain when that is the case.

Portfolio Performance for February

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 4.45%, ROC 2.66%.

‘Starter’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Racing Service 2, Northern Monkey): ROI 6%, ROC 4.97%.

‘Broxchange’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Golf Insider): ROI 1.03%, ROC 1.02%.

Individual Service Performance

The Accountant: Staked 62pts, -1.777pts, ROI -2.86%, ROC -2.22%.

Racing Service 1: Staked 18pts, +7.287pts, ROI 40.48%, ROC 7.28%.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 209.81pts, +16.31pts, ROI 7.77%, ROC 8.15%.

Golf Insider: Staked 52.4pts, -31.9pts, ROI -60.87%, ROC -3.98%.

MVS (Lite): Staked 56pts, +5.752pts, ROI 10.27%, ROC -6.47%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 17.875pts, +6.23pts, ROI 34.85%, ROC 7.78%.

Football Service 2: Staked 22.75pts, -2.834pts, ROI -12.45%, ROC -7.08%.

Racing Service 2: Staked 19.5pts, +0.5pts, ROI 2.56%, ROC 0.87%.

Racing Service 3: Staked 63.75pts, +2.558pts, ROI 4.45%, ROC 2.66%.