Month: January 2019

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More (Boring) Profits & Football Update

It was another successful week for the ‘Main’ portfolio, and it’s getting kinda boring (in a good way) to be mentioning Racing Service 2 yet again this month.  Another nice winner at 8s on Saturday meant the profit level was impressive again.  It’s going to be a real let down when finally a blank week strikes.

A really good performance too from MVS (Lite) which, during a very quiet week, hit enough winners to bank a nice profit and an ROI of 125%.

None of the tipsters had a particularly poor week, and January as a whole is going quite swimmingly.

I also want to update today on my post last week on Football Service 1 asthere are a couple of things that the chap who runs it (SB) drew my attention to, that I had omitted from that post.  So, in the interest of providing some context, here are a couple of further points to be made.

Firstly, SB did advise a number of differently-sized betting banks for subscribers to the service, depending on the level of risk they were happy to take on.  The officially recommended level of risk (of bankruptcy to SB’s mathematical calculations) to take on when setting a bank for the system is 1%.

At the start of the season, SB wrote that after an analysis of results through the 2017/18 season, the drop off in performance of bets issued from the beginning of March was “statistically significant”.  I know it’s been a subject for discussion for many years – as the season draws to a close, some teams’ level of motivation compared to another’s can differ wildly.  If a team is set in mid-table with nothing to gain or lose, are they going to put as much into a match as an opponent desperate to avoid relegation or which is pushing for promotion?  Can ratings allow for this factor or not? – perhaps not if results are consistently seen to be worse at this stage of the season.

Anyway, whatever the answer to the above question, SB suggested that followers taking on a 1% risk of bankruptcy (as recommended) and those who intended to stop betting the selections at the end of February should do so with a 25 point bank, and those whose plan it was to back all selections through to the end of the season set themselves up with a 35 point bank.  The 35 point bank has not gone bust at this point and SBC’s official bank recommendation is for 50 points.

SB did also recommend larger banks for those who wanted to take less than a 1% risk of bankruptcy, i.e. a 0.1% risk and of course subscriber who took up this option is still going strong.

I hope this successfully adds a little context.

For what it’s worth, my own opinion is that it is perfectly possible that the Football Service 2’s ratings are simply going through an extended slump which they will ultimately recover from.  I do genuinely hope this is the case – Football Service 2 is a professionally run service and as such, deserves to do well.

Portfolio Performance

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 25.21%, ROC 3.11%.

‘Starter’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Racing Service 2, Northern Monkey): ROI 20.64%, ROC 3.08%.

‘Broxchange’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Golf Insider): ROI -8.76%, ROC -1.35%.

Individual Service Performance

The Accountant: Staked 12pts, -1.87pts, ROI -15.58%.

Racing Service 1: Staked 3pts, 4.6pts, ROI 153.33%.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 45.3pts, +7.63pts, ROI 16.84%.

Golf Insider: Staked 14.4pts, -14.4pts, ROI -100%.

MVS (Lite): Staked 4pts, +5pts, ROI 125%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 2.5pts, 0pts, ROI 0%.

Football Service 2: Staked 4pts, -0.173pts, ROI -4.32%.

Racing Service 2: Staked 3pts, +6pts, ROI 200%.

Racing Service 3: Staked 23.5pts, +4.525pts, ROI 19.25%.

Drawing a line.

When you receive an email from one of your tipsters, with an opening line of “This is the email I hoped I’d never have to write”, then you know it’s not good news.

Football Service 1 has suffered a torrid season.  It started badly, hasn’t improved or recovered, and on Saturday a nadir was reached when all seven tips were unsuccessful.  This meant that the advised bank had been bust, which is a point at which I stop following.

The service owner is mulling things over in terms of how to proceed.  He has done a detailed analysis of his results in the context of deciding whether or not the 25 point recommended bank was ever really large enough. Certainly the SBC advise following with a larger bank and I do, but when the tipster himself has such obvious doubts as to the future viability of his service or system, then that is enough for me.

It’s difficult to see what Football Service 1 can do anyway, other than extend the size of the bank.  To me, I’m afraid this is a retrospective move that doesn’t sit well.  A bank is a bank.  If you’re just going to expand it once it’s been bust, you have to question the setting up of a bank in the first place.  The tipster may be considering other options of course.

As far as the portfolios are concerned, then Football Service 1 has obviously been dragging down overall performance these past few months but that’s a risk inherent in constructing a betting portfolio anyway.  The glass-half-full way of looking at this is that the diversification of the portfolio has helped absorb the losses and do a little better than break-even, which is quite an achievement in itself.  Sadly the much smaller ‘Broxchange’ portfolio performance has taken a real hit which is likely to take some time to recover from, although I’m confident that recover it will.

As for this past week, well Football Service 1’s disaster was covered by another Saturday of excellence from Racing Service 2 who is enjoying a real purple patch.  A nod of appreciation too, to the performance of MVS (Lite) last week.

Performance from Monday 7th to Sunday 13th January

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 7.31%, ROC 0.96%.

‘Starter’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Racing Service 2, Northern Monkey): ROI 67.85%, ROC 5.59%.

‘Broxchange’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Golf Insider, Football Service 1): ROI -48.46%, ROC -5.2%.

Individual Service Performance

The Accountant: Staked 10pts, +1.35pts, ROI 13.5%.

Racing Service 1: Staked 5pts, -2.8pts, ROI -56%.

Football Service 1: Staked 7pts, -7pts, ROI -100%.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 13.18pts, -7.46pts, ROI -56.6%.

Golf Insider: Staked 10.4pts, -10.4pts, ROI -100%.

MVS (Lite): Staked 20pts, +4.88pts, ROI 24.4%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 3pts, -0.325pts, ROI -10.83%.

Football Service 2: Staked 6.5pts, -1.824pts, ROI -28.06%.

Racing Service 2: Staked 4.5pts, +12.5pts, ROI 277.77%.

Racing Service 3: Staked 13pts, +6.438pts, ROI 49.52%.

A happy New Year!

You know I’m of an age now where I really don’t like being hungover.  I just can’t be bothered with it.  It started when I had kids.  You know that feeling when it’s Last Orders and you know you’ve already had a skinful, but you think sod it and line up a couple more?  For years I sought a reason I felt valid enough for not doing that, without success.  And then you have kids, and at last there’s a big enough deterrent.  The idea of two youngsters bounding in at first light when you’re completely the worse for wear, your tongue stuck to the roof of your mouth and in need of about two litres of water and fifteen Aspirin…  Well, it doesn’t bear thinking about.

And so it is that come New Year’s Eve, I’m a right miserable old git and go to bed at a normal time (although the kids are now too big to be “bounding” anywhere).  And then complain when the fireworks wake me up.    So generally, as the first minute of the New Year ticks through I’m being moaned at by the missus for being a right old misery.  And I go back to sleep, inwardly moaning.  There are times when I am true to my Yorkshire roots.

This year however, my mood was lifted rather by the day’s betting.  December got off to an absolute stormer, and so did January and again, it was Racing Service 2 leading the way.  We had three winners at 7s, 3s and 6s and bank growth of over 25% on the day!

Also in fine New Year form was Racing Service 1 with two big winners  and with Football Service 2 weighing in too it was a heck of a start to 2019.  Form across the portfolio wasn’t quite maintained across the rest of the week, but it’s been a strong start nonetheless.

Finally a quick word on Golf Insider.  I’m really looking forward to this year following the golfing expert.  A couple of very big winners towards the end of the year showed what is possible and although we have to be patient and it can be a long time between winners, when they come they tend to be memorable.  I’ve dabbled with golfing tipsters before, but finally feel I’ve found one I’m completely comfortable with.


Performance from Tuesday 1st to Sunday 6th January

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 34.51%, ROC 3.48%.

‘Starter’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Racing Service 2, Northern Monkey): ROI 54.3%, ROC 6.36%.

‘Broxchange’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Golf Insider, Football Service 1): ROI -4.25%, ROC -0.55%.

Individual Service Performance

The Accountant: Staked 6pts, +1.269pts, ROI 21.16%, ROC 2.11%.

Racing Service 1: Staked 7pts, +7.5pts, ROI 107.14%, ROC 7.5%.

Football Service 1: Staked 1pt, +1.11pts, ROI 111%, ROC 2.22%.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 26.3pts, -10.01pts, ROI -40.34%, ROC -5%.

Golf Insider: Staked 6.8pts, -2.176pts, ROI -32%, ROC -0.01%.

MVS (Lite): Staked 11pts, -7.75pts, ROI -70.45%, ROC -8.61%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 4pts, +1.387pts, ROI 34.68%, ROC 1.73%.

Football Service 2: Staked 10pts, +6.043pts, ROI 60.43%, ROC 7.55%.

Racing Service 2: Staked 6.5pts, +13.771pts, ROI 211.86%, ROC 22.95%.

Racing Service 3: Staked 12.25pts, -6.25pts, ROI -51.02%, ROC -5%

December Review

So how was your Christmas, then?

I’ve got to admit, I loved mine.  We did what we usually do as a family, and that is escape the madness.  Nice cosy thatched cottage on the South Devon coast, log fire, short walk to cove and pub, fresh air, good food and fine ale.  And no betting.

That last little bit is important.  When I go on holiday, I go on holiday. WiFi wasn’t great where I was anyway, and after spending 54 weeks of the year trying to get the kids off their screens, it is good to show them how it’s done.  I just couldn’t be bothered battling an internet connection that would regularly drop out, now was it fair to keep the missus and kids waiting to play cards or go out for lunch because I was waiting for some email to come through.  Not what Christmas is all about.

The result is getting back into it all refreshed and ready and raring to go.  So just a short post this week, with last month’s figures posted.  I don’t want to comment on individual service performance as obviously there’s 10 days or so of betting action missing.  What I experienced as a bad month for a service might not actually have been that bad by the time December 31st was over, and vice versa for any service that performed well.

All the best for the New Year – may 2019 be a prosperous one for you with much profit.

See you next week.

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 8.08%, ROC 3.72%.

‘Starter’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Racing Service 2, Northern Monkey): ROI 5.05%, ROC 3.93%.

‘Broxchange’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Golf Insider, Football Service 1): ROI 4.24%, ROC 3.05%.

Individual Service Performance

The Accountant: Staked 74pts, +0.433pts, ROI 0.88%, ROC 0.75%.

Racing Service 1: Staked 14pts, +1.425pts, ROI 10.17%, ROC 1.42%.

Football Service 1: Staked 14pts, -3.666pts, ROI -26.18%, ROC -7.33%.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 138.4pts, +15.14pts, ROI 10.93%, ROC 7.57%.

Golf Insider: Staked 31.2pts, +66.35pts, ROI 212.66%, ROC 8.79%.

MVS (Lite): Staked 29pts, +1.055pts, ROI 3.63%, ROC 1.18%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 14.4pts, +3.641pts, ROI 25.28%, ROC 4.55%.

Football Service 2: Staked 8pts, -1.01pts, ROI -12.62%, ROC -1.26%.

Racing Service 2: Staked 25.25pts, -0.584pts, ROI -2.31%, ROC -1.02%.

Racing Service 3: Staked 38.25pts, +31.275pts, ROI 81.76%, ROC 15.63%.