Month: October 2022

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GOLF: Valuable thinking time.

I was on holiday last week.  Down to the South Devon coast (again).  A ‘happy place’ for my wife and I.

To be honest, it was wonderful.  Better than many a holiday I’ve been on over recent years.  The Indian Summer weather meant loads of fresh air, wearing T-shirt and shorts, basking in warm sunshine.  Too much good food, good wine, good company, and post-lunch ‘siestas’ and long nights of good sleep, mean I return to duty fully refreshed and raring to go.  I’ve said it before, but the daily grind of betting in a serious manner – ie. to make a profit as opposed to throwing money away via recreational punting – can and does become attritional.  To get away from it for a while, to take a complete break from betting, is something I strongly recommend doing. And anyway, what’s nicer feeling is there to buy a more expensive bottle of wine than you might ordinarily buy, or treat your loved ones to a meal out that is above the usual fare and which carries a bigger bill to boot, with your winnings from your betting?

Taking time out also allows time to ruminate.  To think things through, to make plans for the future even if only contingency.  I lost another two bookmaker accounts in the week prior to my holiday, and this means I am beginning to run out of online bookmaking options.  It was good to be able to plot a way forward, and to think through how I might adapt my betting approach to circumnavigate the issue.

The impact on my golf betting is that I am going to look to do more of it in shops, using cash.  Probably on Tuesday evenings.  I’ll have the Golf Insider and PGA Profit tips by then (mostly).  It is likely too, to mean that I start to use the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker more for myself too, as opposed to following blindly the Weekly Golf Value bets.  Listening to Tom on the Bashcast, this places me at no disadvantage at all, and in fact there are positives to be found in that I’m not restricted to the selections at the books WGV use.  As with any new approach, even if only involving a slight deviation from usual methods, there’s a slight ‘feeling my way’ stage to get through, but I doubt that will last too long.

More tomorrow…

RACING: Northern Monkey hits form!

Only one place to start this week and that is with a great week for Northern Monkey, who found a number of winners and a few winning multiple bets that wracked up over 17 points of profit.  I still get the feeling Wayne is ruing a number of near misses that would have landed a monster number of points profit, but it does feel like things are turning.  Let’s hope so.

The Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker keeps nudging the high water mark ever upwards, although “just” the 3 points profit this week.  Came rather close to another bumper pay out but the final horse of the Lucky 15 finishing 3rd instead of third meant the return was healthy, but the cork remained in the champagne bottle.

A very quiet week for Bet Achemist with nothing really to report.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 214pts, +1.785pts, roi 0.83%, roc 1.78%, High 3.73pts, DD -1.95pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 416.125pts, -33.833pts, roi -8.12%, roc -42.29%, High 0pts, DD -33.833pts, Max DD -58.589pts

The Value Bettor (40): Staked 9.75pts, +1.46pts, roi 14.97%, roc 3.65%, High 2.71pts, DD -1.25pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 477pts, +567.566pts, roi 118.98%, roc 567.56%, High 567.566pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -13.388pts

Racing Totals: ROI 52.9%, ROC 168.25%

SPORTS: Struggles.

Not a great week for the sports tipsters with all three services producing a loss.  Not big ones, but for both The Poacher and Touchdown Profit, the results mean that new low points for the year to date have been reached in terms of drawdown.  In terms of cash lost, neither deficit is particularly serious as you will see from the ROC figures posted below, but nevertheless it’s disappointing.

To be fair to Touchdown Profit the season is only six game weeks in and so there is plenty of time for things to turn around.  As for The Poacher, well, patience is being tested, I think it’s fair to say.  I have no doubt whatsoever that both tipsters are working hard to get back on a winning track.

As for On The Oche, just a small loss and their figures for the ytd are good.  So it’s not all doom and gloom, but right now, the Sports portfolio is struggling.

Let’s see what next week brings.

On The Oche (30pt bank): Staked 73pts, +10.905pts, roi 14.93%, roc 36.35%, High 11.415pts, DD -0.51pts, Max DD -2.27pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 229pts, -0.848pts, roi -0.37%, roc -2.12%, High 7.407pts, DD -8.311pts, Max DD -8.311pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 33pts, -1.32pts, roi -4%, roc -2.64%, High 2.87pts, DD -4.19pts, Max DD -4.19pts

Sports Totals: ROI 3.18%, ROC 9.06%.

GOLF: Double Bubble as Golf Insider and Tour Tips hit the bullseye!

I was saying just last week that it was time Tour Tips entered the winning enclosure again, and by tipping up 33/1 winner of last week’s PGA Tour event, Keegan Bradley, they went and did just that.  What was even nicer is that Golf Insider had a bit of a fancy for Keegan too at 30s, and so it was that we enjoyed a very profitable week!

Golf Insider seems to be coming into a little form and although the prices of some winning bets recently have been such that overall not much by way of profit was being bagged, that they’re now hitting winners is clearly a sign that they are improving.  Long may that continue.

Elsewhere and Weekly Golf Value have to be considered a little unfortunate with highly staked 75/1 shot Peter Uihlen was pipped to the LIV Tour post in a play-off.  I can hardly complain though.  Earlier this year getting a golfer to a play-off was essentially a winner.  To say we were overdue a loser in a play-off would be something of an understatement.  Pity though, for if Uihlen had come in it would have been a storming week.  As it is, we’ll just have to settle for a very healthy profit.

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 371pts, -59.435pts, roi -16.02%, roc -29.71%, High 29.24pts, DD -88.675pts, Max DD -97.675pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 729.5pts, +178.14pts, roi 24.41%, roc 35.62%, High 213.14pts, DD -35pts, Max DD -136.1pts

European Tour (500): Staked 81.5pts, -65pts, roi -79.75%, roc -13%. High 0pts, DD -65pts, Max DD -65pts

Ben Coley (600): Staked 496pts, -110.79pts, roi -22.33%, roc -18.46%, High 79.93pts, DD -190.72pts, Max DD -190.72pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 183.5pts, -32.52pts, roi -17.72%, roc -21.68%, High 19.614pts, DD -52.55pts, Max DD -79.25pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 4,244.5pts, +1,073.75pts, roi 25.29%, roc 53.68%, High 1,464.65pts, DD -390.9pts, Max DD -493.09pts

The Rainmaker (400): Staked 1010.5pts, -400.08pts, roi -39.59%, roc -100.02%, High 5.2pts, DD: -405.68pts, Max DD -405.68pts

Golf Totals: ROI -5.33%, ROC -10.93%


RACING: The Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker – how I’ve made 550% ROC, part 1.

A reader of the Bet Diary has emailed to ask how I go about using the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker, and I thought it might make the subject of a decent Bet Diary post.

Let me start off by saying that I am more than aware that the performance levels I’ve reached to date from just 460 bets is ridiculously high, that the amount of positive variance I’ve benefited from is, I’m pretty sure, the highest level I’ve ever experienced in my betting career, and that such a rate of return (125% ROI) is unsustainable.  In fact that ROI figure is about five times the level I am optimistically hopeful about hitting long-term, and I’m kinda braced for a losing run because of the extent to which the Tracker is overperforming for me at present.

The second thing I need to say is that what is about to follow – over two (or more, possibly) posts – is a breakdown of my way of going about using the Tracker.  My own, personal methodology.  It is not the right or correct way to use it.  It is simply my way.  It’s important to realise that the Tracker is highlighting horses whose price to place on an each way bet holds a positive expectation, or +EV (+ Expected Value).  How any individual goes about harnessing this value is entirely up to them.

So, let’s explain.

I use the Racing Tracker Pro, not the ‘basic’ Tracker.  Why?  Well, sounds posher, innit?  I really didn’t give it much thought, and just used the ‘Pro’ version from the off. And I use it to find four horses of +EV that I can stick into an each way Lucky 15.

After reading the data analysis when penning the review of the Racing Tracker for the SBC Magazine, I thought the suggestion to perhaps look to spread the odds within each Lucky 15 sounded sensible.  The odds ‘bands’ I draw for myself have been done so completely arbitrarily.  There’s no deep logic behind them.  My ‘ideal’ Lucky 15 will have at least one horse priced 17/2 or lower, two priced between 10/1 and 14/1, and one at 16/1 or higher (going up to 25/1).

However, if there are two or three suitable horses lower than 17/2 and only one or two between 10/1 and 14/1, I’ll stick the two or three in the Lucky 15 with one longer priced beast.  As to which horses I take, I simply go for the one in each odds band that carries the most +EV.  Simple.

Talking of EV, I do set the tracker to provide horses of 102+ EV or more.

And that’s it.  It really is a very simple and basic approach.  My feeling when it comes to betting strategies and approaches that the simpler the better.  The Tracker is doing all the complex stuff.  I just need to try to harness its power using an approach that is very simple, easily repeatable, and doesn’t give me cause to think.  I’ve found in life – and my wife would vouch for this – that I am something of an overthinker.  But with maturity (a kinder word than ‘age’), has come the realisation that I overthink things and therefore, I take great and very deliberate measures to stop myself from doing so.

I don’t use the ‘Confidence’ rating on the Tracker at all.  Although I feel more comfortable taking horses that have steamed in price than those that have drifted, I don’t deliberately target them, and interestingly two of my most lucrative Lucky 15s contained more than one horse that had drifted in price.  And I tend to check the Tracker each hour from about 11.00 to 3.00.  Again though, I’m not rigid in this.  I want my betting to be enjoyable, and not getting too tied up in rules and regulations is one way I achieve this.  I may miss the odd day each week because work is particularly busy (I know I’m fortunate in that I work from home so placing bets online is straightforward) or I’ve got something on.  There was a day not so long ago when the sun was shining and still held some real warmth, so I thought I’d make the most of it before the cold and darkness of winter sets in by taking the mutt out for a long walk.  I didn’t sweat about not placing any Lucky 15s, because the Tracker will be working the next day.  And the next, and the one after that, and so on.

Using this approach, I usually end up taking three or four Lucky 15s each day during the week, and perhaps more (up to eight) on a Saturday now that my cricket season has finished.

Next week, I’ll talk about the bits around the edges.  How sustainable is my use of the Racing Tracker, what measures I’m taking to future-proof my use of the Bookie Bashing service in its entirety, how I aim to grow things, and more.

Until then…

SPORTS: Remarkable On The Oche darting consistency!

I always feel I’m tempting fate whenever I praise a service, especially if it’s for consistency of performance.  And especially when it’s a low turnover service such as On The Oche, because three or four consecutive losses, which let’s face it, really isn’t that unlikely, and things can look a lot worse.

However, it would be remiss not to mention the consistency of OTO after three winning picks last week raised the ROI to 16%+, which when you bear in mind that most bets lie around the Evens/Odds On mark, is quite remarkable.  Some may say that it is also unsustainable, and time only will reveal whether that is the case or not.  For now though, hats off.

It would be nice to see The Poacher click into gear sooner rather than later.  I’m almost dead level after 220 points have been staked this year, and it would be lovely to get some solid returns before the year is out.

A very quiet week for Touchdown Profit.  Apparently a number of key injuries put our man off a number of selections, and the result was just two bets and essentially a break even outcome.

On The Oche (30pt bank): Staked 67pts, +11.015pts, roi 16.44%, roc 36.71%, High 11.415pts, DD -0.4pts, Max DD -2.27pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 220pts, +0.664pts, roi 0.3%, roc 1.66%, High 7.407pts, DD -6.799pts, Max DD -7.075pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 30pts, -0.23pts, roi -0.76%, roc -0.44%, High 2.87pts, DD -3.1pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 4.17%, ROC 11.24%

GOLF: The ups and downs of golf betting.

If ever a week highlighted the ups and downs of golf betting, it was the week just gone.  From a winner on both sides of the Atlantic last Sunday, we went to very meagre pickings this.

There really isn’t very much to report.  At least Tour Tips ended with a profit having tipped up 40/1 Tom Hoge who placed, but this is a service very much overdue a good winner.  Patience, patience, patience.

Golf Insider got two to place but one was at 12/1 and these two weren’t enough to avoid a loss.  Not the best week for Weekly Golf Value who had three tournaments to go at and the best that could be done was a share of 8th place in the States.  And a blank for PGA Profit.

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 361pts, -68.435pts, roi -18.95%, roc -34.21%, High 29.24pts, DD -97.675pts, Max DD -97.675pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 711.5pts, +196.14pts, roi 27.56%, roc 39.22%, High 213.14pts, DD -17pts, Max DD -136.1pts 

European Tour (500): Staked 81.5pts, -65pts, roi -79.75%, roc -13%. High 0pts, DD -65pts, Max DD -65pts

Ben Coley (600): Staked 496pts, -110.79pts, roi -22.33%, roc -18.46%, High 79.93pts, DD -190.72pts, Max DD -190.72pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 183.5pts, -32.52pts, roi -17.72%, roc -21.68%, High 19.614pts, DD -52.55pts, Max DD -79.25pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 4,081.5pts, +1,140.75pts, roi 27.94%, roc 57.03%, High 1,464.65pts, DD -323.9pts, Max DD -493.09pts

The Rainmaker (400): Staked 1010.5pts, -400.08pts, roi -39.59%, roc -100.02%, High 5.2pts, DD: -405.68pts, Max DD -405.68pts

Golf Totals: ROI -7.32%, ROC -14.71%

RACING: All change at The Value Bettor

It’s that time of year, when jumps racing gradually comes to the fore, that traditionally we’d be waiting for The Value Bettor to get going again after his summer break.  After a disappointing season last time though, Andrew is implementing some pretty fundamental changes.

These changes are based upon backing his ‘Matrix’ bets, for which the same races are targeted but more than one selection given at Exchange prices.  This spreads the risk and to date have proven to be profitable.  However, TVB wants first to trial this approach officially until December, and then take stock.

What will I do?  On reflection, I think I’ll follow too, but there’s not much point reporting back on a weekly basis in here for a service that can’t be joined and which might not continue into the New Year.  I sincerely hope the plan works well.  Andrew’s ability as a form reader and tipster is such that I simply want him to succeed.

So, watch this space…until Christmas at least.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 210pts, +3.735pts, roi 1.77%, roc 3.73%, High 3.73pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 395.875pts, -51.29pts, roi -12.95%, roc -64.11%, High 0pts, DD -57.299pts, Max DD -58.589pts

The Value Bettor (40): Staked 9.75pts, +1.46pts, roi 14.97%, roc 3.65%, High 2.71pts, DD -1.25pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 451pts, +564.457pts, roi 125.17%, roc 564.45%, High 564.457pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -13.388pts

Racing Totals: ROI 51.03%, 162.31%.

SPORTS: One step forward and one step back.

I have Man Flu’.  So, as you can imagine, I’m struggling.  I need an early night, a hot water bottle, and honey and lemon.  Hopefully, if I get all of those things, I’ll pull through.

Anyways, because of my cold, I’m going to keep this post very short.

Nothing at all from On The Oche last week, a more or less break even week for The Poacher, and a frustrating weekend for Touchdown Profit.  The good work at the start of this NFL season being somewhat undone by finding only one winner and a push from six selections.

Right, where’s my hot water bottle….?

On The Oche (30pt bank): Staked 64.5pts, +9.145pts, roi 14.17%, roc 30.48%, High 11.415pts, DD -2.27pts, Max DD -2.27pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 211pts, +1.451pts, roi 0.68%, roc 3.62%, High 7.407pts, DD -6.012pts, Max DD -7.075pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 28pts, -0.22pts, roi -0.78%, roc -0.44%, High 2.87pts, DD -3.09pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 3.88%, ROC 10.03%

GOLF: 100/1 and 66/1 – winners on both sides of the Pond!

It’s been a while but at last!  A big winning week on the golf, and a much needed one all told.

The plaudits go this week to PGA Profit who picked Mackenzie Hughes over Stateside at 100/1 and who won in a play off.  Talk about one win completely transforming a service’s figures for the year.  Right on to an all time high for the year from what had been a bit of a drawdown.

And to Weekly Golf Value who bagged 66/1 winner of the DP World Tour event in Scotland, Ryan Fox, at 66s.  Also managed to pick up place money for two others in that tournament and one in the US, so a really good week all told too.

I was a little concerned when I saw on Twitter last night that Coral and Ladbrokes were “doing a 10bet” and claiming palpable error on the pricing of Fox.  I’m pleased to say though that the winnings have hit my account.  Getting them out is always a concern in these modern times, of course, but touch wood, so far I’ve not experienced any issues.

A small place return for Golf Insider, which is now struggling a little and reaching a lowest drawdown for the year.  And a blank week for Tour Tips.

So, a really good week that has more than halved the overall losses for the year.  Let’s see what we can do to get back into the black.

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 351pts, -64.135pts, roi -18.27%, roc -32.06%, High 29.24pts, DD -93.375pts, Max DD -93.375pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 694.5pts, +213.14pts, roi 30.68%, roc 42.62%, High 213.14pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -136.1pts

European Tour (500): Staked 81.5pts, -65pts, roi -79.75%, roc -13%. High 0pts, DD -65pts, Max DD -65pts

Ben Coley (600): Staked 496pts, -110.79pts, roi -22.33%, roc -18.46%, High 79.93pts, DD -190.72pts, Max DD -190.72pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 177.5pts, -35.52pts, roi -20.01%, roc -23.68%, High 19.614pts, DD -55.55pts, Max DD -79.25pts

 Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 3,893.5pts, +1,311.25pts, roi 33.67%, roc 65.56%, High 1,464.65pts, DD -153.4pts, Max DD -493.09pts

Golf Totals: ROI -6.23%, ROC -12.26%