Month: January 2023

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When a Void bet tastes sweet.

Another profitable week and that makes it three from three so far for 2023.  I’m not complaining, and when overall we see an ROI of 16%, then why would I?

But…and isn’t there always a but?…my turnover is significantly down from that I was achieving at the back end of last year.  In this context, the ROI figure carries less significance when looking at it solely in terms of how much actual money is being made.  The amount is not bad at all, but it’s not where I want it to be longer term.  But this is an adaptation period.  Gone is the access to soft books.  Betting this year so far has all been done via cash in shops or by using the Exchanges (Smarkets).

Not helping on the turnover front has been the winter weather and the impact that’s had on both horse racing and football.  I’ve had a number of football coupons carrying teams whose matches have subsequently been called off due to frozen pitches, and race meetings have succumbed too.  So it’s a case of accepting this as something that can’t be controlled and not getting too up tight about it.  All that can be done in this regard is hope that the cold snap doesn’t last too much longer.  But this is the UK, and it’s winter, so who knows?

Golf, of course, tends to be played in sunnier climes and this week sees me adopt a new win-only strategy across the board.  I’m going to look to cover about 20-25% win probability of each tournament taking prices available on the Exchange.  It’s going to be interesting to see how this works out, and I retain the right to tinker with my approach as I get a feel for it.  Braced for losing runs, I know it’s going to sting like an angry wasp when I inevitably lose a bet on a 200/1 shot in a play off.  Best be psychologically prepared in advance for that turn of events, I reckon.

Finally this week, an observation that although there are some very good, astute and decent people working behind the counters at bookmakers, there are also some right old dimwits!  The latter tend to be the younger generation I find (or is that just me getting old and grumpy?).

A prime example was the Friday just gone.  Stuck two football coupons on at Hills.  First one was fine, second one came out on a slip that wasn’t right – didn’t list the team names, prices, or anything resembling a normal slip.  When I questioned it, the chap said it was absolutely fine.  The bar code was on there, and that’s all they needed to get any returns sorted, etc.  I wasn’t comfortable with this but he was the only chap in the shop, and clearly it would make no difference what I said, he wasn’t going to change his mind.

Saturday morning I went back to the same shop.  Three people working behind the counter now and I approached an older guy I knew was more experienced, and helpful.  I showed him the slip.  “Yes”, he said.  “I wondered when you might be in.”

He’d seen this slip, immediately recognised that the scanning machine had had a moment, and as such the bet was Void.  Now, can you imagine if that had happened to be one of those rare slips where we land six or seven of the seven selections – the big payout we’re all wait patiently for, and I hadn’t checked first that the slip was all ok?  I’d be partying like the fella in The Wolf of Wall Street, dancing in to pick up my four figure return, only to be told that the bet was void!  Seriously, I think I’d have had a fit.  And if I ever got my hands on that young chap who insisted that everything was ok with the bet…I’d..I’d…well, I’d tell him exactly how frustrated I was, and in no uncertain terms! (he’s bigger than me – always good to recognise your own limitations, eh?).

As it happens, four of the matches on the slip were called off, and the other three teams lost.  Thank God for the Void.

Week 3 Results

Racing: roi -72.99%.

Golf: roi -4.18%.  And right there is the difference in place returns between using the bookies (where Weekly Golf Value turned a profit on the week), and the Exchanges (which produced a loss).  Having had time to think now, I’m radically altering my strategy, and you can read more on that in Wednesday’s post.

Value Bets: roi -30.7%.

Football Coupons: roi 4.3%.

Combo Bets: roi -100%.  Probably the last Combo bet I place, bearing in mind the account is caput.  Just one bet, and my feeling is it could take ten years of placing “mug” bets before the account rises from the dead.

NFL: n/a

DD/HH: roi 324.1%.  Erling Haaland scoring  hat trick meant the week overall, for the third time running this year, generated a profit overall.  As a born and bred Gooner, shame he didn’t put City 1-0 up, go on to score a hat trick only for Wolves to win 4-3, but never mind.

PGA Profit: roi -100% (win-only betting).

Edwards Tips: n/a – have spent this past week working out a staking strategy.  In the interests of neatness, I’m now going to start backing these from 1st February.

Total ROI: 16.34%, ROC 3.8%.

Putting trust in the hands of a good-for-nothing lazy layabout…

My wife has always said I have a tendency to over-think and over-analyze things.  Experience over the years tells me she is probably right.  She is about most things, I’ve found.

Certainly this week has seen me looking to come to a settled plan as to how to move forward.  The reason for this is that being brutally honest, betting using cash only in the shops is proving to be more tricky than I’d anticipated.  Take one morning last week as an example.  Early doors the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker is showing there’s a nice looking Lucky 15 to be had down my local BetFreds.  Hop in the car for the 1.5 mile journey that usually takes five minutes.  Half an hour later I’m still stuck in the car because due to local roads flooding, the traffic was a ‘mare.  I had to turn around and come home because I needed to be at my work desk.  Not great.

Then there has been a relative lack of value to shop prices and place terms showing up on the Golf Tracker.  Then there’s been race meetings being rained or frozen off.  There’s simply been one reason followed by another for not getting anywhere near the volume of bets I want to be getting down.  So all in all, this last week I’ve felt has been one of the most challenging I think I’ve had for a long, long time.

But this is where the over-analyzing comes in.  I’ve had two completed weeks of betting this year, and both have been profitable.  Not spectacularly so, but put it this way…if I could take the profit I’ve had in each of these two weeks and guarantee that amount every week, then I would have a pretty decent year.  I’m at 13% ROI, for heaven’s sake.  Hardly a disaster!

That said, I do need to think of solutions.

In the short term, I’m turning to the Exchanges for my golf betting and will be looking to increase returns from the win-part of each way bets.  This is going to test patience.  It can be a long time between drinks for winners on the golf, but when they come I need to cash in.  I will still cover the place part of the bet, but the value won’t be there to turn a profit longer term I don’t think.  What I’m hoping it will do – using the Top 5 and 10 markets – is serve to smooth out the journey, even if by just a little.  So in other words, sacrifice a bit off the bottom line to maintain some grip, even if only a weak one, on some level of sanity.

The above is great, but not ideal.  So, solution number 2 is to set up some accounts with the independent bookies the SBC have recently identified as being possible options.  Who knows how long these accounts will last, but I’m thinking of limiting their use to golf betting and “muggy” looking combo bets (with the hope these will increase account longevity).  I want to set up a bank account for this though to keep funds separate, so will take a couple of days or so to sort.

Solution 3 – get a Runner up and, well, err…running.  Someone I can trust, someone with access to bookies shops, and with plenty of time on their hands.  My son.  I can trust him (because if he did anything daft I’d not let him come home again), he can almost fall out of his flat and roll into one of two BetFreds and a Paddy Power (seriously, they are that close), and he’s a student (so let’s face it, the available time isn’t going to be a problem is it, the lazy, do-nothing-all-day tax dodging layabouts!).  But again, need to sort out bank account, cash card, etc.  He could be useful for some online, golf-only bookmaker accounts too – we’ll see.

And finally, possible Solution 4 – different services.  I mentioned last week Edwards Tips and I’ve been getting used to how this all works to minimal stakes (so small there’s no point on reporting figures just yet). I like the look of it, have had to accept from what I’ve seen so far that I can’t get on anywhere near all the bets because of my current restriction to the Exchanges, and it has plenty of potential.  I’ve also my eye on another but hopefully more on that anon.

So, plenty going on, just not much actual betting!  But I’m up for the year so far, and being up is never a position to complain about.

See you next week.

Week 2 Results

So the (soon to be usual) run down of last week’s results.

Racing

Thorny issue, and much more about this in Wednesday’s post.  Only five Lucky 15s placed (hence  the problem) and hardly a horse placing.  ROI -92%.

Golf

More on this on Wednesday too, but sadly I didn’t make the profit Weekly Golf Value did.  ROI -3.87%.

No winner from PGA Profit: ROI -100%.

Football Coupons

Like last week, one slip with a good, if not spectacular return, with the rest not offering much at all.  Overall a decent rate of return though. ROI 44.8%.

Value Bets

Just three bets, one winner.  ROI -25.95%

DD/HH

A fair few bets over the weekend and hooray – Brennon Johnson scoring not just the first goal for Nottingham Forest at 15/2, but then going on to score a second meant that this strategy was the Star of the Show last week, and ensured a profit overall.  ROI 147.61%

NFL

No suitable games to get involved in last week. Looks likely to be the same this weekend coming, too.  ROI n/a.

Total ROI: 11.63%, ROC 0.63%

A sad day, and the start of a new era.

Close friends and family had been called to the patient’s bedside.  Life had lasted much longer than the average expectancy, and it had been happy life, “fruitful” some might say, and full of great memories.  This had been a life well lived, and although the depth of sadness in those present when the moment came was almost tangible, there were no regrets or shock at the situation.  Rather this had been something that had been coming for a long while.  It was something that had been prepared for.

On Monday 10th January 2023, at precisely 11.02am, my last unrestricted online betting account passed to the other side.  The bookmaker had pulled the plug, and that was that.  The end of an era, and the start of another.  To be quite honest, after the amount I’d made from it over the past six months, I’d have closed it a long time ago.  Quite how it remained viable for as long as it did I really have no idea.

But life moves on, and come 11.03am on Monday, thoughts had already turned to the next chapter.  The period of mourning was over. It was time to crack on.

So come 8.30 on Tuesday morning, having fought through torrential rain, there I was at my local bookies to get a Lucky 15 down.  I was slightly surprised to find that I wasn’t the first in the shop.  Actually, I was more than slightly surprised that it was even open at 8.30.  The Laddies over the road doesn’t open its doors until 9.00, the lazy gits.

I guess this is the way forward now.  Early start at work (7.45-8.00ish), and then a quick nip down the bookies to get a Lucky 15 or two down, another at lunchtime if there’s anything suitable with which to make up a Lucky 15, and perhaps get a footie coupon in, and then a drive further afield in the early evening.  It’s going to be a grind.

Talking of football coupons, and it’s been a really difficult start to the year.  If you read the results post yesterday, you’ll know I had a decent return on a coupon over the weekend, but that served merely to reduce losses.  It really isn’t the losing that bothers me.  That will change as long as I consistently continue betting teams whose prices represent value.  But for some reason, I’ve been finding that five or six of the teams I’m backing have had their prices slashed significantly.  I don’t mind so much if this is happening in the run up to kick offs as team news filters through and “smart” money starts to impact the markets.  But it’s not been like this.  In fact the one coupon where all the prices have remained as expected was the one I placed about half an hour before the matches were due to start.

I guess what I’m saying is that I can cope with losing runs.  Experience tells me that as long as I am consistent in my approach and I’m backing value, the profit will follow either sooner or later.  But at the moment I don’t quite feel I’ve got my “betting pattern” quite settled when it comes to the coupons.  And I need to work this out.  Sharpish.

Let’s see what this week brings.

Good luck with your punting!

 

Week 1 Results

Good Evening.

So, here’s the plan.  Each week, on a Monday or Tuesday, I’m going to post up a brief summary of the previous week’s results, and at the end of each month, do a review.  Nothing fancy here, just the figures and an outline of any particularly highlights and lowlights.  And then every Wednesday will be the more detailed post with thoughts, observations, etc.

Should note too that having given everything some thought, I’m going to be supporting the PGA Profit bets still, but likely win-only and only on the Exchanges, and there will very shortly be news of a different (and new) tipster who also produces golf tips.  Again, the Exchange will be the way forward with these too.  But all that’s for next week.

As for Week 1 of 2023, well overall we turned a profit.  Not a huge one, but a profit is a profit and I’m never going to complain whenever I see that!

Racing

My very first bet of 2023 was a Lucky 15 which with a winner and two placed produced a 10 point profit.  Nothing to rival that subsequently.  ROI (Year To Date): 17.87%.

Golf

A wash out for Weekly Golf Value but couldn’t help but feel a wee bit unlucky with two golfers finishing 7th when the place terms were Top 6.  ROI -100%.

Football Coupons

More thoughts on this tomorrow, but the start of the week was dire.  Loads of losers, no returns from several slips, and not great.  Then one decent coupon at the weekend meant the overall loss in the end for the week was much less than had looked likely.  ROI – 26.87%.

Value Bets

Just three bets, one winner.  ROI – 37.06%

DD/HH

Let’s just say I’m due a winner.  ROI -100%

NFL

The hero of the hour (week).  Four suitable matches to get involved with on Sunday evening.  Two games saw the teams level at half time (win!) and then the team doubled up to win at Full Time having been level at half time did the biz.  ROI 367.13%.

Total ROI: 13.68%, ROC 1.65%

 

Betting at the Front Line: Hello 2023 – Please be kind…

2023!  How on earth has that happened?  Only seems a couple of years ago that the world was about to come to a grinding halt and then burst out in flames as IT systems everywhere were going to simply give up as soon as the clocks struck 00:00.01 to bring in Year 2000.  That was a nervy second, I can tell you.  Kids – ask your parents…”the millenium bug”…

Happy New Year to you all!

So what is 2023 going to bring betting-wise then?  I have some plans, and I’ve got to admit to being both anxious and excited by them in equal measure.  This kinda feels like embarking on the next stage of my betting journey.  The last stage has stretched over a few years, but having almost reached the end of having access to any online betting accounts (I say almost, because one still stubbornly remains), it’s adapt or die.  And having learnt from the example set by the Dodo, I’m determined to adapt.  I ain’t no flightless bird!

As I was more than just hinting at in the Bet Diary posts published just prior to Christmas, a lot more – in fact almost all – of my betting is soon to be done using cash, in shops.  It’s a bit of a bind.  I can’t say the prospect of driving out and about across the towns of North Cheshire and South Manchester in the cold, wet and dark each evening after a day of work is one that particularly thrills me.  But hey, if that’s what it takes.  I’m not yet at the stage of employing runners to do the dirty work, although ultimately that’s the plan.  Until then though, I’m going to have to do the grunt work myself.

So what am I going to be betting on?

  1. Golf.  Enjoyed a tremendous year following Weekly Golf Value through 2022, and towards the end there I had just started to leave WGV bets I couldn’t get on and using the Bookie Bashing golf tracker to complement those I could get on.  I’m aiming for 12.5%+ field coverage across each tournament, and for as long as I can with the one remaining online account I have, I’ll stay as true as I can to the WGV advice.  Once that account goes however, then it’ll be the Tracker all the way.
  2. Horses.  The Lucky 15 strategy was my outstanding contributor to profit last year, posting some ridiculously good figures.  My worry here is that I’ve yet to hit a big win at the shops.  All so far have been achieved online, with two bookmakers who tend to offer either consistently better odds or extra places which the Horse Racing Tracker allows leads us to taking advantage of.  I’ve no doubt wins at the offices will arrive, but likely not with the same frequency.  I expect my losing runs to grow a little and ROI to dip.  I’m also a little concerned about keeping volume up too.  There’s a lot to concentrate on here!
  3. Football Coupons.  Trebles the way forward, but hopefully it should be relatively straightforward to keep the volume of bets.  I’ll write more on this topic next week, as there are still a few things I’m not entirely comfortable with, although I’m not running at a bad level of profit since I started.
  4. Value bets.  Usually deriving from Boosts and to be taken advantage of either in shop or on the Exchanges where arbers may be looking to lay off their bets for their guaranteed margins and happy to take what is a value price from my side.
  5. DD/HH – Double Delight/Hat Trick Heaven at BetFred.  Again, using the data available as a Bookie Basher member,  Will be staking £x to win £y.
  6. NFL: the strategy utilising the half time markets.  Not a high volume approach but there’s a proven edge there and why not look to take advantage wherever possible?  It would be rude not to.
  7. Combo bets: the occasional “muggy” looking RequestABet/#YourOdds/PickYourPunt genre of bet with my one online account.  How long can I keep it open for?  I’m expecting it to be closed tomorrow, but I’ve been saying that since August.

And there we have it.  That’s the plan for 2023.  It’s new (for me).  It’s with a sense of trepidation I embark upon this adventure, and that’s not just because it’s dark early and at one bookies I visit I’d be targeted for a mugging if anyone thought I had 50p in my pocket.

I’ll not post results today as have only been back at it three days, but suffice to say my first Lucky 15 of the year netted 10 points profit but I’ve not won a penny since, and the less said about the Footie Coupons these last couple of days the better.  All told, I’m break even, but I’ll post proper performance figures from next week’s post.

Join me then.