Month: December 2016

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What’s this betting lark all about? Is it business, or pleasure?

Ahoy there!

So, how’s things going?  Ready for Christmas?

Ok, then.  We’ve started to explore some of the things that we must do to set up a sturdy portfolio of betting tipsters to give ourselves the best chance of making a good level of ongoing profit.  There’s a lot more detail we’ll be going into, but before we do, I want to ask you something…

Have you actually sat back and thought about exactly what it is you’re trying to achieve with your betting?

You know a lot of people I talk to tell me that when they started out trying to raise their level when it came to their betting, they had no real target or specific aim in mind.  This always seems strange to me.  I see setting up and running a betting portfolio very much the same as setting up and running a new business.   Would you start a business without first thinking long and hard about how you would go about growing and developing that business, and to what end?  I would like to think not.

Similarly, I’d like to think we’d all draw up a proper business plan before embarking on our adventure.  This would especially be the case if we intended to raise start up funds by means of a business loan.  In fact, if we didn’t, there’d be absolutely no hope of getting that loan, let’s face it.

Set Realistic Financial Targets

So something I’d strongly recommend to anyone starting to build a tipster portfolio is to take some time to really think things through.  Set some realistic financial targets, and write down exactly how you intend to reach them.  It’s important you commit these thoughts to paper.  It will provide a tangible and ongoing reminder of why you are doing what you are doing.  In my experience, it will help keep you on the straight and narrow path of betting righteousness through the tough times when you’ll be tempted to veer off your course by the various demons that will be letting themselves known to you – chase losses, try a new tipster, don’t worry about having a big enough betting bank, drop that tipster as he’s had a bad month (but several successful years!), etc., etc.

Look.  You are going to go through some very testing times.  There is no escaping them.  Indeed, you will go through more loss making and flatlining spells than winning ones, and they will undoubtedly test your resolve.  Having a written “mission statement” as such, will help you through those testing times, believe me.

50% Is Not To Be Sniffed At

What is very important however, when you’re setting your targets, is to be realistic.  If not, you’ll only add to the pressures involved in this project, and that’s the last thing you want to be doing.  Personally, I’d always say that you should aim for an annual Return on Capital (i.e. the percentage of your original investment you make as profit or loss) of 50%.

Some will say that 50% is rubbish.  Don’t believe them.  If you were to invest £1,000 this year, isn’t making £500 from that initial investment a darned good return?  Of course it is.  And you know what, you might well make much more – hopefully so – but if not, then you’re not setting yourself up for a psychological fall.

So, be realistic, set targets you have a good chance of hitting, and commit everything to paper (or to a Word document at least).  Write your business plan, and you’ve already done something that I imagine 99.9% of bettors don’t.  And let’s face it, we want to be one of the 0.1%, do we not?  We want to be one of the very few that actually make a good profit from betting.  So let’s start on the right, professional, footing.


November Review

November has felt like a really difficult month’s betting.  Almost all the services followed have gone through a really bad spell.  Some have produced a small profit but in general, almost every tipster has, to some extent, struggled.  The only exception really is Football Service B whose System has come up with the goods (ROI of 17.1%).

I’ve got to say I’ve found it tough going.   Perhaps it’s a combination of too many tipsters showing poor form and dark mornings and dark afternoons.  I feel like I need a break from it all to recharge the batteries, which is perfectly natural.  Betting every day can become a bit of a grind, just as any job can.  Fortunately I will soon get the chance of a break as I’m going away over Christmas, escaping the shopping madness and crowds by renting a cottage on the Devon coast.  It should provide the perfect antidote to the winter blues.

But I digress.

In truth, November has, I believe, raised a number of questions relating to some of the services in the portfolio.  I’m not making any changes at this time, but I am thinking of tweaking a few things in time for the New Year.  For example, the Combo Racing Method is proving to be consistent, but does simply not throw up enough bets to justify my allocating it a separate bank.  I would like to continue putting some extra money on the selections it throws up, but I need to think about exactly how I will do this.  There are of course, other tipping services which would inevitably generate more Combo System bets but they’re not a part of my portfolio.

Racing Service B has had a very disappointing month, but I’ve no real concerns here, despite the fact that performance levels are not as we would wish them to be.  I certainly won’t be dropping them for 2017.

I may have to revisit the Morning Value Service (Doubles) strategy however.  Why?  Well, I just don’t particularly like placing doubles.  I’m the betting equivalent of a meat and two veg man – I like to keep things simple.  Northern Monkey isn’t shy of throwing in some doubles and it’s all getting a bit much.  No doubt I’d feel differently if the MVS (Doubles) hadn’t fared so poorly this month but even if December proves to be incredibly lucrative, I think I’ll likely drop this from the portfolio and redirect the funds allocated.

I also have a real concern about my ability to follow Football Service C bets into the New Year too.  This is no-one’s fault – it’s just that I have commitments when the bets come through and as a result I’m missing the odds too much.  I’m going to carry on for now and really think hard as to whether there’s a practical solution to the issue.

Other than that, there’s not too much to comment on.  The results aren’t here yet, but the first few days of December have already proved to be far more profitable and therefore enjoyable, so fingers crossed December will be a great month and the struggles of November can be quickly forgotten.

Overall then, November’s betting showed an ROI of -4.27%.  Let’s move quickly on…

Chasemaster: Staked 17pts, +2.625pts.

Jason James: Staked 91pts, +7.077pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 43pts, +2.31pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 11.75pts, +0.125pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 89.5pts, -32.45pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 37pts, -5.41pts.

Morning Value Service (Doubles): Staked 34pts, -31pts.

Combo Racing System: Staked 10pts, +0.25pts.

Football Service A: Staked 36.6pts, +1.09pts.

Football Service B: Staked 23pts, +3.94pts.

Football Service C: Staked 41pts, -8.1pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 187.5pts, -3.8pts.

Staying in control of the basics.

I would think that most of you are familiar with the following quote:

“God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.”

These words are without doubt, highly relevant to the way you should go about running your betting portfolio.  To avoid going insane, you need to separate in your mind what it is you can control, from the things you can’t.

You cannot control how the horses you back run.  You cannot control the player who misses an open goal from inside the six yard box in the 93rd minute, thus making your bet a losing one and not a winner.  You cannot control the golfer who misses the three foot putt to clinch the tournament, denying you a winner at 50/1.

The sooner you get your head around this inescapable fact, the better.  By accepting that you have no control at all over the events you are betting on, you will avoid much heartache and hair tearing!

However, it is just as important to be aware of the various things connected to your betting that you are 100% in control of.  Because if you don’t, things will run away from you.

You need to:

  1. Keep proper and accurate records of all of your bets.
  2. Open as many bookmaker accounts as you can.
  3. Set up your portfolio so that it is balanced and diverse.
  4. Allocate accurate and properly calculated betting banks to each service that you follow.
  5. Think clearly and rationally about any decision made affecting the portfolio.

Only by doing these five things will you be running your portfolio on a professional basis.  I guess the five points are the first stages involved in elevating your betting from simply being a pastime to representing a form of investment.  Which surely is the aim, isn’t it?

We’ll look at these issues more closely in future posts.

Betting from Saturday 26th November to Friday 2nd December

Well if last week was a stormer, this week was a nightmare.

Of the 11 tipping services to issue bets this last week, only one turned a profit!  In times like this, you just have to remember there will be weeks when 11 services provide a profit, and just one a loss.

So, hats off to Chasemaster, who had a lovely winner on Thursday (Ascunion – Market Rasen – 14/1).  I was a little fortunate with the price, as I placed the bet with a new bookmaker account I’d recently opened and therefore benefited from the BOG concession that I am still entitled to.  The officially recommended price was 9/1 – lovely when they drift like that and win!

Elsewhere it was unmitigated losses everywhere.  There were no returns at all for Racing Service A (although only 2.5 points were staked), the Morning Value Service (Doubles), and Football Service A, who couldn’t do anything right.  I must admit, going in with relatively large stakes on big names to cover big handicap lines is not something with which I feel comfortable, but that’s just a personal outlook.

Here’s hoping to a better week ahead.

Chasemaster: Staked 5pts, +15.625pts.

Jason James: Staked 19pts, -3.25pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 13.25pts, -1.1pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 2.5pts, -2.5pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 31.5pts, -18pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 12pts, -2.25pts.

Morning Value Service (Doubles): Staked 12pts, -12pts.

Football Service A: Staked 13.4pts, -13.4pts

Football Service B: Staked 6pts, -3.76pts.

Football Service C: Staked 13pts, -5.79pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 35.75pts, -13.5pts.