Month: August 2021

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SPORTS: The Poacher hitting some form.

I was slightly surprised to read the following in The Poacher’s email yesterday:

“My aim at the beginning of 2021 was for a 5% ROI and while it may be difficult to achieve that I still will be trying to get as close to it as I can.”

My ROI for the year to date following The Poacher’s tips currently stands at 6.67%.  I can only assume that the periods I’ve spent on holiday recently have coincided with some losers.  If so, it’s swings and roundabouts because I know for a fact that I’ve missed out on profit from other services during the weeks I’ve not opened my laptop to place a bet.

Admittedly, I can’t remember when I hit a high point of 19 points of The Poacher profit – it feels like it was a fair few months ago, and I’m still just a couple of points under that high water mark.  This chimes with another sentence in TP’s email, which stated:

“It can be frustrating and mundane when it seems like we are making no progress over a few months but again it shows the importance of patience and taking a long term view.”

Has it felt frustrating and mundane?  I can’t say it has, to be honest,  I knew when I started following at the turn of the year that the nature of football betting lends itself to flat periods.  Perhaps, after betting for so long, I’ve become somewhat inured to the frustrations and have become relatively laid back when it comes to waiting for profit to arrive.  Having said that, it’s much easier to take such a relaxed approach when you have already banked some profit and it has become a case of waiting to add to it, as opposed to making an initial loss and taking a period of time looking to just get back to level pegging.  I guess that’s the psychology of betting right there.  Would I have remained so sanguine about The Poacher’s “frustrating” time of it over the summer had the earlier months have not been as successful as they were?  Quite possibly not.

Sports Service 1 (30pt bank): Staked 21.75pts, +6.885pts, roi 31.51%, roc 22.95%, High: 7.295pts, CDD: -0.41pts, Max DD: -1pts.

Sports Service 2 (40): Staked 64pts, -4.934pts, roi -7.7%, roc -12.33%, High 0pts, CDD: -4.934pts, Max DD: -6.734pts.

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 93pts, -11.737pts, roi -12.62%, roc -11.73%, High: 4.394pts, CDD: -16.131pts, Max DD: -17.984pts.

The Poacher (40): Staked 260.5pts, +17.389pts, roi 6.67%, roc 43.47%, High: 19.068pts, CDD: -1.679pts, Max DD: -9.645pts

Sports Totals: ROI 4.13%, ROC 10.01%

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

GOLF: A 25/1 winner for Golf Insider!

It’s happened before this year, and it’s really nice when it does.  The tournament goes to a play-off, and we have each golfer involved.  All bases are covered.  We’re going to have a winner.

And what a play-off it was, as Bryson De Chambeau (Golf Insider, 20/1) and Patrick Cantlay (Golf Insider, 25/1) battled it out over six extra holes to decide the winner.  I didn’t watch, but simply read about it all this morning.  And so it was that Golf Insider stopped the rot and found a winner after what feels like a very long time since the last one.  But such is the nature of golf betting, and if we’re not prepared to endure the barren spells, we really shouldn’t be betting on golf at all.

Elsewhere and there was nothing going for PGA Profit, and Weekly Golf Value found the most meagre of returns by finding one to place in Europe, but with a book paying out on seven places, finishing tied 7th with what seemed like about 40 other golfers meant the pay out didn’t cover the initial stake.

From next week – as we move into a new month – I’ll be backing the PGA Profit European Tour picks, as mentioned in last week’s post.  Let’s see what that brings.

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 244pts, -67.644pts, roi -27.72%, roc -33.82%, High 14.35pts, CDD: -81.994pts, Max DD: -90.494pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 599pts, +175.53pts, roi 29.3%, roc 35.1%, High +193.53pts, CDD: -18pts, Max DD: -115.77pts

Weekly Golf Value (2,000): 4,719pts, +1,815.48pts, roi 38.47%, roc 90.77%, High 1,928.81pts, CDD: -113.33pts, Max DD: -461.8pts.

Golf Total Figures: ROI 25.61%, ROC 45.7%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

Some time for reflection – Racing

The current ROI for the racing services portfolio currently sits at 11.18%, the ROC at 27.6%.  Anything north of 10% for horse racing betting is fine by me, so all told, I have to be happy enough.

As is always the way though, I want more!  With the return of Racing Service 1 in the autumn, I’m hoping “more” will materialize.  It usually does.

As for the services who provide tips all year round, then I have to profess satisfaction with Bet Alchemist.  I understand from others that I was fortunate enough to miss some losers earlier in the year, and I remember well benefiting from Best Odds Guaranteed – a rare luxury offered by a bookmaker with which I had opened a new account – with one big priced winner, which collectively meant my figures with BA exceeded the official results, and by quite some margin.  Whether that has evened itself out any through my recent holidays, I dare not check!

The highlight of Northern Monkey’s year to date has undoubtedly been a very successful Cheltenham Festival, but the summer has not taken off to any extent, and that is disappointing when we consider that over the years, NMP’s more profitable times seem to come over the midsummer months.  That can’t always be the case of course, and whilst I have no concerns over the service’s ongoing long term profitability, this year’s lack of summer profit has been a source of frustration (and probably, impatience on my part).

As for Precision Value, well 2021 has been something of a rollercoaster ride.  Down, then a strong recovery and up, and then a sizable drawdown.  Perhaps the wet weather has messed too much with ground conditions this year, and that is why some services are struggling at a traditionally strong time.

So all in all, the racing portfolio is ticking along ok (remember that 11% ROI) without pulling up any trees.  I have no worries about any of the services being followed.  It’s more a case of just waiting for things to click, I feel.

Onwards and upwards.

Some time for reflection – Sports

Continuing this week’s theme of taking time out to take stock, some thoughts on the Sports portfolio…

The ROI (31.5%) for Sports Service 1 is exceptional and I couldn’t be happier.  I missed a major tournament which hasn’t helped in terms of turnover, but I went into this year knowing that SS1 is far from prolific in terms of the number of bets issued.  In this context, I can hardly complain now about lack of turnover, and I’m not!  This service is doing all I expected of it and more, and fulfils the role I want it to play perfectly.

My biggest headache is with Sports Service 2A poor start to the year put it behind the curve early on, and to date – for me anyway – it’s struggling to get back to where we all want it to be.  I opted to adopt a level staking approach (historically this produces a higher ROI) but at the odds we’re playing at, it takes a very long winning run to recover previous losses.  I’m not writing it off yet, and will give it at least until the end of the year, but it’s fair to say there’s work for it to do.

The same can be said of Scottish Football Income Booster.  The new Scottish season has started – without me backing anything yet – and I do need to see an uptick in performance through the autumn and early winter.  Another to re-evaluate at the end of the year.

And finally, The Poacher, which in most regards has been the star of the show within the Sports portfolio.  I’ve seen more bets have now started to come through again with the new Spanish and French league seasons under way.  More than happy with this service to date.

The overall ROI for the sports portfolio currently stands at 3.7%.  Hardly spectacular, but not that far behind the 5% target I set, and a couple of good months would see that target being hit, I’m sure.  The bigger issue is perhaps the ROC figure, which is only 8.6%.  That is where I’m disappointed, and if that doesn’t improve significantly over the next few months, then I will need to address the problem for 2022.

Some time for reflection – Golf.

As you may have known had you read my last Bet Diary missives, I was away last week.  I had no intention to bet whilst enjoying a holiday, but even if there was a decision to make about this, circumstances took that choice away.  We were up in Scotland and for most of the week stayed in a lovely little cottage not far from St. Andrews.  The property was advertised as having WiFi.  Well officially, it did, but to be quite honest the WiFi was so slow as to render it completely useless.  Seriously, the old dial up internet was quicker, back in the day.  The laptop went away for the week, and you know what, that was no bad thing.  No technology, but plenty of Single Malt from the local distillery!

Anyway, I had plenty of time to ponder on the portfolio; where I’m at this year, what’s gone well, and what hasn’t.  The fact is, by far the best performing sector overall has been golf.  Golf Insider has found the going a little heavy, but Weekly Golf Value has been on fire and PGA Profit has hit the heights at times too.  Current ROI for my golf betting lies at 27.6% and I have to be happy with that.

The long term track record of Golf Insider lends confidence in the belief that its day will come again.  There’s no need at all to tinker with anything to do with Weekly Golf Value, but it’s been interesting to see PGA Profit start to provide tips for the European Tour over the past couple of months or so.  I’d been pondering the feasibility of following these European Tour bets since PGA announced that he would be offering them (and tipped a winner in his very first week of doing so, if I remember correctly), and last week I decided I would set up a separate bank and jump in.  Of course the way of these things being what they are, last week saw a 25/1 winner and two further golfers place for a 100+ point profit overall in Europe in the week I couldn’t get a bet on if I really wanted to!  Sod’s Law, I guess.

Still, it’s very promising indeed, and with my now looking to start using the Exchanges more for the PGA Profit tips, this feels like the right time to dabble.

More tomorrow, when I’ll turn attention to the Sports portfolio.

RACING: Slim summer pickings

I look upon the midsummer months – June to August – as being the time when we make hay.  I know that traditionally Northern Monkey has a good time of it through summer, and when the weather is good and the ground consistent, then tipsters’ reading of form perhaps becomes a little easier.

Now I know that I’ve missed days and weeks of betting recently (and will do so again next week), but it feels as if this summer hasn’t really got going.  I know we’ve had more rain than we usually do, and perhaps that has had an impact.  Whatever, the sort of rolls that I remember getting onto in the past at this time of year, I’m still waiting for.

Perhaps I’ll have an Indian Summer betting wise.  Perhaps autumn is the new summer.  Let’s hope so.  I mentioned yesterday I am just feeling as if my betting is sailing along in the doldrums rather.  I’ve a limp sail, and no-one wants one of those!

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 291pts, +48.98pts, roi 16.83%, roc 48.98%, High: 50.98pts, CDD: -2pts, Max DD: -25.65pts.

Northern Monkey (100): Staked 343.125pts, +37.702pts, roi 10.98%, roc 37.7%, High: 48.659pts, CDD: -10.957pts, Max DD: -27.028pts

Precision Value (200):  Staked 590pts, +22.494pts, roi 3.81%, roc 11.24%, High: 55.986pts, CDD: -33.492pts, Max DD: -34.275pts.

Racing Service 1 (50): Staked 29.5pts, +6.312pts, roi 21.39%, roc 12.62%, High: 12.312pts, CDD: -6pts, Max DD: -8pts.

Totals Racing: ROI 11.18%, ROC 27.63%

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

SPORTS: One in the eye for betting!

I am feeling frustrated with my betting at the moment.  It feels for all the world like a midsummer lull.  Circumstances are such that it’s all been very stop/start over the past few weeks, and what’s more that is a situation that is to continue for another couple of weeks at least.

Having had one break a couple of weeks ago, I’m off on holiday again through next Monday to Friday.  I’m tempted to continue my betting to try to make up for some lost ground, but in reality I know this isn’t the right thing to do.  My wife, bless her, booked the break as a birthday present.  The last thing I should do is take up some of that precious time in front of a laptop getting bets on.

To exacerbate the problem, last week – which should have been a normal betting week for me – was completely disrupted by an eye condition I suffer from flaring up on Thursday which knocked me out until Sunday.  Keratitis – look it up…it’s a bugger.  One of the symptoms is a strong oversensitivity to light.  Looking at a screen, even for a minute, is impossible.  So no bets again for the better part of last week.

Add to all of this the fact that I have one racing service that doesn’t see action until November, a sports service that is sporadic in terms of activity at the best of times and I missed the first competition for a while by being away, another whose main source of bets come from football leagues currently in their close season…you see why things have stalled somewhat.

So, betting this week, away next week, and time to reset and refocus.  When I come back the main European footie leagues will have started their new seasons, and fingers crossed there’ll be more to get stuck into across the board.

Here’s hoping!

Sports Service 1 (30pt bank): Staked 21.75pts, +6.885pts, roi 31.51%, roc 22.95%, High: 7.295pts, CDD: -0.41pts, Max DD: -1pts.

Sports Service 2 (40): Staked 64pts, -4.934pts, roi -7.7%, roc -12.33%, High 0pts, CDD: -4.934pts, Max DD: -6.734pts.

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 88pts, -12.337pts, roi -14.04%, roc -12.33%, High: 4.394pts, CDD: -16.731pts, Max DD: -17.984pts.

The Poacher (40): Staked 250.5pts, +15.521pts, roi 6.19%, roc 38.8%, High: 19.068pts, CDD: -3.547pts, Max DD: -9.645pts

Sports Totals: ROI 3.7%, ROC 8.69%

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

GOLF: Ace Abe Ancer Aces it!

I do love it when a plan comes together, and it came together very nicely indeed for both PGA Profit and Weekly Golf Value late on Sunday night/early Monday morning.

It was a busy week of golf this past week with three tournaments running, two in the States and one on the European Tour.  And when Abraham Ancer – picked by PGA and WGV forced his way into a three way play off, I was away with the fairies fast asleep.  Probably the best thing for my old ticker.

It was a nice way to wake up this morning, to find out Ancer had won.  And nice in particular for PGA Profit too I’d have thought, after a number of near misses with second places over the past few weeks, and at rather tasty odds too.  I guess that’s the fickle nature of golf betting right there.  Weeks of relative frustration, before WHAM! In a winner goes and all is well with the world.  And as if making up for so many recent near misses, PGA added to the profit for the week by finding three more to finish in the frame for the each way place pay out.  All told, it’s enough to put PGA Profit on a profit high for the year to date.

Sadly, Golf Insider continues to struggle with none placing across the three tournaments.  Surely it will be only a matter of time before this service bangs in a winner or two too.  Here’s hoping…

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 234pts, -76.144pts, roi -32.54%, roc -38.07%, High 14.35pts, CDD: -90.494pts, Max DD: -90.494pts

 PGA Profit (500): Staked 581pts, +193.53pts, roi 33.3%, roc 38.7%, High +193.53pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: -115.77pts

Weekly Golf Value (2,000): 4,616pts, +1,913.15pts, roi 41.44%, roc 95.65%, High 1,928.81pts, CDD: -15.66pts, Max DD: -461.8pts.

Golf Totals: ROI 27.62%, ROC 47.98%.

GOLF: No Gold Medal this week.

No post yesterday, as it was my birthday.  The big 5, 0.  I mean, what!!!!?  How did that happen? How did that sneak up?  Seriously, it’s frightening.  And I’m old.  It’s official.  It must be, because my kids keep telling me I am.

Anyway, the missus had cooked, the kids had promised they wouldn’t be too hard on me, and too much red wine was drunk for me to be posting blog posts.  Apologies.

So, I’m running a day behind schedule.  I’ll try to catch up tomorrow night if I can with a joint Sports/Racing update.

As for the golf, eyes turned towards the Olympics.  Got to admit, golf ain’t no olympic sport to my mind.  Can’t see the Ancient Greeks worrying about a cross wind over the 11th.  I just can’t see any philosopher or poet of the time annoyingly shout “Get in the hole” whenever one of the Gods of Olympus look to chip in with a nine iron.

Still, Olympics or not, the money went down, and each service found just one to place from their varied selections, meaning a loss on the week overall.  Only PGA Profit produced an individual service profit as their placed chap found the frame at 80/1.

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 221pts, -63.144pts, roi -28.57%, roc -31.57%, High 14.35pts, CDD: -77.494pts, Max DD: -77.494pts

 PGA Profit (500): Staked 546pts, +89.23pts, roi 16.34%, roc 17.84%, High +178.5pts, CDD: -89.27pts, Max DD: -115.77pts

 Weekly Golf Value (2,000): 4,493pts, +1,757.03pts, roi 39.1%, roc 87.85%, High 1,928.81pts, CDD: -171.78pts, Max DD: -461.8pts.

Golf Totals: ROI 24.21%, ROC 40.49%

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown