Month: November 2018

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Value – the be all, and the end all.

I’ve got to admit that I’ve been taken aback somewhat by what I’ve been seeing on Twitter these last few days.  Our own Smart Betting Club Twitter account even had to comment on some of the crap that is being spouted.

Over the weekend there were several tweets pushing the idea that a bet is only value if it wins. Clearly nonsense and be careful who you listen to – some people might be well meaning but such uninformed views help no-one.

I’m sorry, but if anyone you’re following suggests that having a winning bet is the be all and end all, they’re wrong.  Wrong, wrong, wrong.  And then, they’re wrong again.

There is one, unescapable constant in betting – if you consistently place bets that have a better chance of winning than the odds you’re taking would imply, you will make money in the long run.

Very easy example – if I offered you 2/1 on ‘Heads’ or ‘Tails’ on a coin toss, then if you keep backing at that price, you will make money (and a lot of it at those odds!).  The odds I’m giving would imply there’s only a 33.333% chance of you winning your bet, but of course we know that in fact there’s a 50% chance of you calling correctly.  Hence, before the flip of the coin, you have secured great value on your bet at 2/1.

Now of course, you may have secured your 2/1, but you might have called incorrectly and lost your money.  Does that mean it was a bad bet?  No, don’t be daft.  It was a great bet – it just happened to lose.  And if you carry on taking 2/1 on the coin toss, don’t worry, you’ll end up quids-in.

In a nutshell, that is what ‘proper’ tipsters are constantly looking for – great bets as dictated by the prices available.  They’ll have a reason for believing that their selection has a chance of winning, but should only advise it as a bet if they think the odds on their selection offer value, ie. they believe their selection has a better chance of winning than the odds would suggest.

Anyone who doesn’t grasp this concept shouldn’t be betting.  When I see comments such as, “there’s no value in a loser” or “any bet is a value bet if it wins” I simply sigh sadly and pray to the Lord that that person stubs their toe on the corner of their bed that night by way of punishment for spouting such drivel.

All of this got me thinking more widely about Social Media tipsters and how unregulated they (in general) are.  It reminds me of the pre-online world of a few years ago, with some right old cowboys  sticking lineage adverts in the Racing Post…Call for the latest “Newmarket Job Horse – This One Will Win By 10 Lengths, GUARANTEED!”.  Of course the poor suckers who’d ring up would each be given the name of a different horse and asked to stick a tenner on so that they could send in the winnings to the “Contact” as payment for the info.  That way the scammers would cover the whole field and be paid whatever won.  It wasn’t until the online revolution and the likes of the SBC got involved that it became easier to identify the genuine tipsters from all the fraudsters out there.

Who’s monitoring the social media tipsters?  Who’s measuring their ROI, whether or not their quoted prices are achievable, what rate of bank growth they’re producing, whether or not they think any winning bet holds value?

More on this in my next post.  Until then, why not ask one of these Twitter Tipsters who don’t believe in the importance of value to offer you 2/1 on a coin toss?  Make it best of 50.

Performance from Monday 19th to Sunday 25th November

Essentially a break even week for the ‘Main’ portfolio.  Cracking weekend for Racing Service 1 who knocked in a 20/1 winner on Sunday.  Lovely stuff.

Not so for Racing Service 2 whose luck was out.  Jumping the last in one race on Sunday, we were going to have either a 7/1 winner or a 20/1 winner as they were battling each other with nothing else looking at all likely to get involved.  How wrong I was – they both got pipped.

Football Service 1 continues to struggle, another poor week for them, as it was for MVS (Lite).

Portfolio performance

‘Main’: ROI 0.51%, ROC 0.07%.

‘Starter’: ROI -18.79%, ROC -5.5%.

‘Broxchange’: ROI -3.55%, ROC -0.69%.

Individual service performance

The Accountant: Staked 22pts, +0.436pts, ROI 1.98%.

Racing Service 1: Staked 6pts, +23.475pts, ROI 391.25%.

Football Service 1: Staked 5pts, -2.729pts, ROI -54.58%.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 25.4pts, +4.75pts, ROI 18.7%.

Golf Insider: Staked 17pts, +0.812pts, ROI 4.77%.

MVS (Lite): Staked 10pts, -4.5pts, ROI -45%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 2.897pts, -2.897pts, ROI -100%.

Football Service 2: Staked 6.5pts, -0.455pts, ROI -7%.

Racing Service 2: Staked 6.25pts, -6.25pts, ROI -100%.

Racing Service 3: Staked 24pts, -0.9pts, ROI -3.75%.

Birdies and Bogies, Winners and Losers – the ups and downs of Golf betting.

OK, so I’ll begrudgingly admit that whoever within UEFA it was who came up with the idea for the Nations League, deserves a pat on the back and a “Well Done You”.  Undoubtedly the games are better and more meaningful than the dreadfully tedious international friendlies we had before, but it’s still not proper footie, is it?  And we’ve had three breaks for international football since the season began, which to my mind is at the very least two too many.  Anyway, we’ve got the proper game back at the weekend, thank goodness.

In the meantime I’ve been reading a bit more about golf betting and the theme that I see being constantly repeated is the need for real patience if betting on outright tournament winners.  Stands to reason I guess, in that when backing at odds of 20/1, 40/1, 100/1 and 200/1+, hitting the bullseye is going to be a rare occurrence.

So when I reintroduced Golf Insider to the portfolio, I girdled my nerves and steadied my loins in preparation for playing the ‘long game’.  Two weeks in and Bang!  An 80/1 winner.  Who needs patience?  Easy pickings this golf betting malarkey.

I wish, although if it was I suppose everyone would be doing it.  There was a bit of a gentle bump back to earth last week when no player backed on either side of the Atlantic could even reach the places, the useless gits.

On a serious note, I’m hoping that the 3-ball bets that Golf Insider offers will help smooth out the path a touch, although having said that I’ve not had a 3-ball bet so far this month.  It makes sense though to have these shorter priced higher-staked bets as part of the golf betting deal though, just so that we followers can ‘go’ to the ‘Collect’ window on what is a regular basis compared to how often we go when backing the tournament winners.   It’s good for the sanity to go collect fairly regularly at least.

Anyway, those of you new to golf betting, you’ve been warned.  You need to be brave and to laugh in the face of long losing runs.  You need to be amused and not angered or frustrated by your 80/1 shot losing a play-off after being ahead by four during the final round before imploding up the home stretch.  Oh yes, these are the delights that await.  There’s something slightly masochistic about it all, but it’s not half a good feeling when it all comes together.  😉

Betting performance from Monday 12th to Sunday 18th November

A pretty quiet week, all told, with each portfolio generating profit, if not in huge amounts.

It was great to see The Accountant get back to what I presume is form that is more par for the course (see what I did there on a post about golf betting?).   When you are new to a service and it gets off to a howler, it’s never easy to deal with but again, you’ve just got to hang in there.

Other than that, there weren’t any outstanding performances, either good or bad.

Portfolio performance

‘Main’: ROI 2.72%, ROC 0.38%.

‘Starter’: ROI 9.66%, ROC 1.71%.

‘Broxchange’: ROI 11.91%, ROC 1.75%.

Individual Service Performance

The Accountant: Staked 23pts, +4.918pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 8pts, -0.75pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 3pts, -0.975pts.

Football Lay Profits: n/a.

Golf Insider: Staked 8.2pts, -8.2pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 12pts, +1.625pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 4pts, -3.343pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 7pts, +1.895pts.

Racing Service 2: Staked 10pts, +2pts.

Racing Service 3: Staked 24pts, -10.687pts.

Questions and Answers

It’s great to get feedback from you readers.  Back in the day when I wrote a daily blog, independent of the SBC, I would more days than not have people leaving comments.  It meant that to a certain extent, the readership dictated the agenda, and it would be fantastic if that were to happen here too.

And so a big thank you to Darren, who asked a couple of questions after last week’s post.  I thought that instead of replying to Darren alone, I’d stick up my answers in here for everyone to read.

I remember a few months back you mentioned that you still record your bets with a pen and paper, did you ever settle on a spreadsheet or piece of software to record the bets or are you still doing it the old fashioned way?

Yep, I’ve been dragged into the 21st century.  I now use a very basic spreadsheet put together by my (far) better half. It’s dead simple that doesn’t go into detail of individual bets but does track ongoing performance nicely.  It’s all I need.  I’ve heard very good things of Betting Metrics which provides a bet tracking service which I believe is available at a discount through the SBC. I might well move towards this myself in the not too distant future, but just right now I’m happy with my current set up.

Your Starter and Broxchange portfolios are made up of services that are also included in your main portfolio. Are you putting bets on for these services twice and in the case of the The Accountant and Football Lay Profits 3 times or are these just theoretical portfolios to showcase what can be done if you have access to bet brokers rather than actually putting any money down on the bets?

No, I’m not doubling (or trebling) up on the same bets – I place the bets outlined in the ‘Main’ portfolio and run theoretical banks for the ‘Starter’ and ‘Broxchange’ portfolios.  These are intended to show you all what can be done, how long it can take to grow your betting operation, etc.  Please note though that I place each bet issued by the services in the ‘Broxchange’ portfolio via the Exchanges or MustardBet so that you get a fair representation, and all commission is deducted from the results I provide too.  Obviously the rate of commission deducted is dependant on which exchange I’ve used.

I’m interested to know what your approach is to services such as [Racing Service 2] who do not tip all year round. You’ve probably noticed NMP is planning on having a break over the winter as well so i’m wondering what you do with your betting banks that you allocate to these services when they’re not tipping? Do you redistribute your [Racing Service 2] bank over the summer between other services or do you keep it aside untouched until [Racing Service 2] returns for the next NH season?

Ha!  You know, I’ve agonized over what to do for the best over these issues.  I don’t redistribute my Racing Service 2 bank over the summer.  I am naturally very risk averse, and although there is a lot of sense in redistributing funds that in essence are not being used, I’ve decided against such a policy.  I other words, each service followed has funds allocated to it, but don’t forget I applied a little leverage to my betting bank when we started these new portfolios.

I hope that answers the questions ok, but please, to all readers, please do leave comments, questions, etc.  It’s great to get some interaction going and perhaps we can all help each other!

Betting performance from Thursday 1st  – Sunday 11th November

Thankfully November has got off to a decent start and hopefully we’re on the road to recovery from what was a disappointing October.

Racing Service 2 has led the way and it’s great to see the positive pre-season form I mentioned a couple of weeks ago carry on into the season proper.  Some very nice winners and it’s great to see RS2 back in action again.

A lovely big win for Golf Insider over in the States last Sunday, and MVS (Lite) is on something of a hot run.

It’s always very difficult to go through a rotten spell as soon as you start to follow any service, and that’s exactly what has happened with The Accountant.  The first week of November was rotten, and because you have no previous experience to fall back on, you can’t help but wonder what you’ve signed up to!  However, there have been some more promising signs in the last couple of days or so.  We could do with a decent weekend from Racing Service 1 too.

Portfolio performance

‘Main’: ROI 9.94%, ROC 3.69%.

‘Starter’: ROI 8.79%, ROC 4.92%.

‘Broxchange’: ROI 0.47%, ROC 0.23%.

Individual service performance

The Accountant: Staked 54pts, -6.271pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 18pts, -8.712pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 8pts, -0.061pts.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 89.8pts, +5.25pts.

Golf Insider: Staked 17.2pts, +73.72pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 27pts, +12.6pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 23.625pts, +1.948pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 16.5pts, +2.62pts.

Racing Service 2: Staked 12pts, +13pts.

Racing Service 3: Staked 40pts, -10.25pts.

October Review

It’s quite apt that the last day of the month just gone was Halloween, because to be quite honest October was a complete horror show.  It was the worst month I’ve had in a long, long time and I’m pleased it’s over.

There’s a temptation to think that come the end of a bad month and as another starts, fortunes will dramatically reverse.  Betting doesn’t work like that, and who knows how deep this current losing run will reach before fortunes turn around.  That, in a nutshell, is why gambling is such a test of mental strength; no-one ever knows when a bad drawdown is going to end.  It is the uncertainty that so many people, including myself, find hard to deal with.

Of the nine services issuing bets through October, only three made a profit; Football Lay Profits, Football Service 2, and Racing Service 3.  The two footie services did well, with the 3.19% of FLP a decent enough figure for a laying service and FS2’s ROI coming in at a very respectable 9.84%.  But these profits fell an awful long way short of covering losses elsewhere.

October was a horrible month for the Football Service 1.  It got off to a particularly nasty start with nine losers and no winners in the first week, and things only got worse from there.  This had a massively negative impact on the ‘Broxchange’ portfolio, and the recent troubled times of The Accountant did nothing other than exacerbate the situation.

It’s always tricky when a service you start to follow endures a losing run before you’ve really seen what it can do.  The temptation is to question your own judgment in deciding to subscribe and it is so important to retain faith and trust in the research you had done.  That’s certainly the case with The Accountant and I’m looking to much better times ahead.

Both Northern Monkey and MVS (Lite) struggled badly too.  It was a strange month for NMP which had a fantastically successful Saturday back on the 15th, which saw 15.5 points profit made.  That Wayne finished the month 10 points down shows just how slim pickings were around that one Saturday.

Here are the figures:

The Accountant: Staked 65pts, -5.132pts, ROI -7.89%, ROC -8.55%.

Racing Service 1: Staked 38pts, -2.112pts, ROI -5.55%, ROC -2.11%.

Football Service 1: Staked 27pts, -12.871pts, ROI -47.67%, ROC -25.74%.

Football Lay Profits: Risked 243.9pts, +7.792pts, ROI 3.19%, ROC 3.89%.

Golf Insider: Staked 50.4pts, -28.86pts, ROI -57.26%, ROC -3.6%.

MVS (Lite): Staked 50pts, -17.235pts, ROI -34.47%, ROC -19.39%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 48.185pts, -10.462pts, ROI -21.71%, ROC -13.07%.

Football Service 2: Staked 39.5pts, +3.89pts, ROI 9.84%, ROC 4.86%.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 93.25pts, +4.65pts, ROI 4.98%, ROC 2.32%.


Portfolio performances:

‘Main’: ROI -11.31%, ROC -6.18%.

‘Starter’: ROI -7.11%, ROC -5.09%.

‘Broxchange’: ROI -11.63%, ROC -8.6%.

Let’s hope November is a better month.