I’ve got to admit that I’ve been taken aback somewhat by what I’ve been seeing on Twitter these last few days. Our own Smart Betting Club Twitter account even had to comment on some of the crap that is being spouted.
Over the weekend there were several tweets pushing the idea that a bet is only value if it wins. Clearly nonsense and be careful who you listen to – some people might be well meaning but such uninformed views help no-one.
I’m sorry, but if anyone you’re following suggests that having a winning bet is the be all and end all, they’re wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong. And then, they’re wrong again.
There is one, unescapable constant in betting – if you consistently place bets that have a better chance of winning than the odds you’re taking would imply, you will make money in the long run.
Very easy example – if I offered you 2/1 on ‘Heads’ or ‘Tails’ on a coin toss, then if you keep backing at that price, you will make money (and a lot of it at those odds!). The odds I’m giving would imply there’s only a 33.333% chance of you winning your bet, but of course we know that in fact there’s a 50% chance of you calling correctly. Hence, before the flip of the coin, you have secured great value on your bet at 2/1.
Now of course, you may have secured your 2/1, but you might have called incorrectly and lost your money. Does that mean it was a bad bet? No, don’t be daft. It was a great bet – it just happened to lose. And if you carry on taking 2/1 on the coin toss, don’t worry, you’ll end up quids-in.
In a nutshell, that is what ‘proper’ tipsters are constantly looking for – great bets as dictated by the prices available. They’ll have a reason for believing that their selection has a chance of winning, but should only advise it as a bet if they think the odds on their selection offer value, ie. they believe their selection has a better chance of winning than the odds would suggest.
Anyone who doesn’t grasp this concept shouldn’t be betting. When I see comments such as, “there’s no value in a loser” or “any bet is a value bet if it wins” I simply sigh sadly and pray to the Lord that that person stubs their toe on the corner of their bed that night by way of punishment for spouting such drivel.
All of this got me thinking more widely about Social Media tipsters and how unregulated they (in general) are. It reminds me of the pre-online world of a few years ago, with some right old cowboys sticking lineage adverts in the Racing Post…Call for the latest “Newmarket Job Horse – This One Will Win By 10 Lengths, GUARANTEED!”. Of course the poor suckers who’d ring up would each be given the name of a different horse and asked to stick a tenner on so that they could send in the winnings to the “Contact” as payment for the info. That way the scammers would cover the whole field and be paid whatever won. It wasn’t until the online revolution and the likes of the SBC got involved that it became easier to identify the genuine tipsters from all the fraudsters out there.
Who’s monitoring the social media tipsters? Who’s measuring their ROI, whether or not their quoted prices are achievable, what rate of bank growth they’re producing, whether or not they think any winning bet holds value?
More on this in my next post. Until then, why not ask one of these Twitter Tipsters who don’t believe in the importance of value to offer you 2/1 on a coin toss? Make it best of 50.
Performance from Monday 19th to Sunday 25th November
Essentially a break even week for the ‘Main’ portfolio. Cracking weekend for Racing Service 1 who knocked in a 20/1 winner on Sunday. Lovely stuff.
Not so for Racing Service 2 whose luck was out. Jumping the last in one race on Sunday, we were going to have either a 7/1 winner or a 20/1 winner as they were battling each other with nothing else looking at all likely to get involved. How wrong I was – they both got pipped.
Football Service 1 continues to struggle, another poor week for them, as it was for MVS (Lite).
‘Main’: ROI 0.51%, ROC 0.07%.
‘Starter’: ROI -18.79%, ROC -5.5%.
‘Broxchange’: ROI -3.55%, ROC -0.69%.
Individual service performance
The Accountant: Staked 22pts, +0.436pts, ROI 1.98%.
Racing Service 1: Staked 6pts, +23.475pts, ROI 391.25%.
Football Service 1: Staked 5pts, -2.729pts, ROI -54.58%.
Football Lay Profits: Staked 25.4pts, +4.75pts, ROI 18.7%.
Golf Insider: Staked 17pts, +0.812pts, ROI 4.77%.
MVS (Lite): Staked 10pts, -4.5pts, ROI -45%.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2.897pts, -2.897pts, ROI -100%.
Football Service 2: Staked 6.5pts, -0.455pts, ROI -7%.
Racing Service 2: Staked 6.25pts, -6.25pts, ROI -100%.
Racing Service 3: Staked 24pts, -0.9pts, ROI -3.75%.