Month: February 2020

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Comparing results, being dopey, and a 50/1 winner!

I’ve had a couple of people contact me recently with questions around odds and the results I attain.  One saying that he can’t seem to match my results with one racing service in particular, another wondering where some profit had vanished to as his results for a service he was following were better than mine.  The answer to both was the same – don’t try to compare your results too closely with mine.  They’re never going to match.

Why is this?  Well, for starters I imagine our available roster of bookmaking accounts don’t exactly mirror each other.  Take for example, the golf services I follow on here.  Increasingly so, I’m finding that I can’t place bets with a bookie offering six or seven places on the recommended each way bets.  More and more of my golf betting has now to be done through Bet365, which for most events only offer five places.  I’m also starting to use the Exchanges more and who knows what prices I’ll be taking there?  I imagine some will be better and a few will be worse than the advised odds, so another avenue for inconsistency.

I’m also not as precious as I used to be in terms of placing bets, which leads to picks being missed.  Until relatively recently, it used to freak me out a little if I missed a bet.  Back in the day I’d even religiously look to place each and every selection whilst I was away on holiday.  It took years for me to relax a little and let things flow over me somewhat.  Now, I’ll not blink if I miss a day’s tips from a service because I happen to be out and about doing something I enjoy doing.  Come the summer (which doesn’t half feel like a long way away at the moment, eh?) and I know for a fact I won’t be able to place bets issued on a Saturday morning.

The net result of this is quite naturally, that if you follow some of the same services as I report on in these pages, it’s likely we’ll have broadly similar results but they’re certainly unlikely to be identical.

My Relaxed Approach!

Something I’ve come to realise over the years is that a more relaxed approach to betting is advisable if you want to be in it for the long term.  And look, I’m not talking about being completely carefree and reckless.  Don’t get me wrong, I still try to get on as many picks as I can, and I always look to get the best odds I can as consistently as I can.  It’s just I’ve come to realize that by being completely uptight about things all of the time, then burn out becomes a very real possibility.

If you recognize that you might have a bit of what I call Betting OCD, my advice would be to try to relax a little.  Do things properly and professionally, but if you’re out with the kids, or the missus or going for a coffee or beer with a friend, chill and enjoy the experience and don’t stress about missing bets.  There’s more to life, and let’s face it, deep down we know that missing a few bets here or there won’t make that much difference to the bottom line over time.

My Deliberate Mistake

Finally for this week – a deliberate (*cough*) mistake.  I’ve been operating the PGA Profit service to a 300 point bank (which has been pointed out to me is inadequate – and from the beginning of March will be amended to 500 points, plus I’ll also be following the official variable staking plan and come away from my level staking approach), but somehow managed to put 100 points as the bank size in last week’s summary.  Whoops.  My excuse?….ummmm….err….other than being a bit dopey, not sure I really have one.  Doh!

Performance for February to date…

I’m only going to say one thing this week…

PGA Profit – Patrick Reed – 50/1.  Get in!

Bet Alchemist (100 point bank): Staked 25pts, -6.975pts, roi -27.9%, roc -6.98%

Staked 47pts, -5.575pts, roi -11.86%, roc -5.58%

 Racing Service 1 (200): Staked 22pts, -1pt, roi -4.55%, roc -0.65%

Staked 57pts, +6.4pts, roi 11.23%, roc 3.2%

Golf Insider (400): Staked 29.2pts, -10.8pts, roi -36.99%, roc -2.7%

Staked 74.3pts, +2.3pts, roi 3.1%, roc 0.58%

PGA Profit (300): Staked 41pts, +61.7pts, roi 150.49%, roc 20.57%

Staked 52pts, +76.06pts, roi 146.27%, roc 25.35%

Precision Value (200): Staked 53pts, -5.792pts, roi -10.93%, roc -2.9%

Staked 139pts, +16.999pts, roi 12.23%, roc 8.5%

Racing Intelligence (200): Staked 93pts, +18.375pts, roi 19.76%, roc 9.19%

Staked 220.5pts, +26.473pts, roi 12%, roc 13.24%

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 37pts, +7.65pts, roi 20.68%, roc 7.65%

Staked 51pts, +11.75pts, roi 23.04%, roc 11.75%

Racing Service 2 (50): Staked 12pts, -1.5pts, roi -12.5%, roc -3%

Staked 22.75pts, -7pts, roi -30.77%, roc -14%

Total for February to date: roi 12.71%, roc 3.84%

Total for 2020 to date: roi 12.09%, roc 7.38%

A Sunday night so near/so far, exchange woe, and going in-running.

Thought I was going to bag the first big, big priced winner from PGA Profit this week.  My guy (I say “my”, fully aware that every other PGA Profit member would be on him, but I’m nothing if not self-centred!) had put in three very solid rounds and found himself going down the back nine just one shot off the overall leader.  Here we go, I’m thinking (or more like, here go – couldn’t care less about any other beggar!) but alas, it wasn’t to be.  My fella dropped back a touch and frustratingly dropped into a share of 5th place which although guaranteeing a pay out on the each way part of the bet aswell as the Top 10 and Top 20 market wins, had to  be split between about a zillion and one other golfers who also managed to finish 5th.

Still, it will come – just a matter of time before PGA Profit land the sort of winner that brightens up any Sunday evening.

Who was surprised to read the message from Matchbook this week?  Disappointing to say the least.  I’ve been using Matchbook more and more over the last few months and not being able to moving forward is a source of frustration, I don’t mind admitting.  I’ve got to say I found the lack of detail in the message far from desirable.  I understand a business has a reputation to protect, but the reassurance that would be gained from saying  look, we’re doing this, this and this so that we can continue to operate in the UK would provide us with a bit more confidence, surely?  Oh well, let’s see what shakes out.  In the meantime, I’ve withdrawn my funds and the message that came from SBC Pete (that’s his official name by the way, ‘SBC Pete’ – had it changed by deed poll) to SBC members on Tuesday re. keeping a minimal “fighting fund” in bookmaker and exchange accounts is one that really should be heeded.  Other than laziness, there’s no reason at all to keep big funds tied up with a bookmaker or exchange, none at all.  So don’t be lazy, eh!?! (There you are – I’m not completely egocentric, am I?).

Finally this week, I had a question from a member re. how I’ve been able to get close to the advised prices following Racing Intelligence. First thing to say – in the interests of transparency – the figures posted here are achieved prices.  RI, as with many other services out there, do have an impact on prices and prices can fall pretty quickly.  The trick I find, is to be patient.  Don’t chase prices down.  They sometimes bounce back, especially on the exchanges.  I’ll also have my bookie accounts open and primed so I don’t waste time logging in when the bets come through – it’s bang, straight on.  I’m fortunate to be almost always working at my laptop anyway when RI emails arrive, so I’m literally on in seconds.  I’m also happy to take the next price down too if need be, so 9/2 instead of 5/1,  100/30 instead of 7/2, etc.  And if all else fails, I’ll sometimes put a bet to be matched in running at the advised price.  Of course, this does carry a risk that your request will always be matched if the horse loses but won’t necessarily be matched should it win.  It’s not a fail safe method – but it works for me most of the time.  And if there’s one thing you’ve surely picked up reading this post, if it works for me, that’s what matters, godammit!!!

Performance for February to date…

Very quiet really.  The storms – Ciara and Dennis (who thinks of these names?  Does someone have the job of Official Storm Namer?  And if so, couldn’t they be a bit more imaginative and dramatic?  I get they go through the alphabet, but that’s no restriction, and to me these storm namers are not earning their money.  Storm Crikeythat’sgoingtoblowtheroofoff, or Storm Dragonslayingwindfromhell, anyone?) have played havoc the past two weekends and understandably tipsters are being cautious.  With Cheltenham not far away, perhaps this is the calm before the storm.  Erm, no, that can’t be right.  We can’t have the calm before the storm caused by a storm.

Anyway, the figures…

*Figures in italics are those showing year to date (from Jan 1st) figures:

Bet Alchemist (100 point bank): Staked 16pts, -2.775pts, roi -17.34%, roc -2.78%

Staked 38pts, -1.375pts, roi -3.62%, roc -1.38%

Racing Service 1 (200): Staked 20pts, -1.25pts, roi -6.25%, roc -0.63%

Staked 55pts, +6.15pts, roi 11.18%, roc 3.08%

Golf Insider (400): Staked 17.2pts, +1.2pts, roi 6.98%, roc 0.3%

Staked 62.3pts, +14.3pts, roi 22.95%, roc 3.58%

PGA Profit (300): Staked 25pts, -5.1pts, roi -20.4%, roc -1.7%

Staked 36pts, +9.26pts, roi 25.72%, roc 3.09%

Precision Value (200): Staked 43pts, -7.292pts, roi -16.96%, roc -3.65%

Staked 129pts, +15.499pts, roi 12.01%, roc 7.75%

Racing Intelligence (200): Staked 93pts, +18.375pts, roi 19.76%, roc 9.19%

Staked 220.5pts, +26.473pts, roi 12%, roc 13.24%

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 31pts, +7.55pts, roi 25.17%, roc 7.55%

Staked 45pts, +11.65pts, roi 25.89%, roc 11.65%

Racing Service 2 (50): Staked 10pts, -3.25pts, roi -32.5%, roc -6.5%

Staked 20.75pts, -8.75pts, roi -42.17%, roc -17.5%

Never a better time to be following tipsters.

As I’m sure you will have seen, the SBC betting Oscar winners were announced this week with the release of the ‘2020 Smart Betting Club Awards’.  The report made for very interesting reading.  If you are yet to read it I won’t give too much away, but I think in light of last week’s Bet Diary post about Racing Service 2, it is pertinent to mention that the service won Gold in the ‘Best Overall Tipster’ category.  I can’t say I’m surprised.  Not many tipsters receive a 5/5 rating from the SBC and indeed it is the only one currently in the Hall of Fame allocated the full five stars.

Congratulations are due to all the winners and it’s good to see so many honest, hard-working betting experts gain due recognition for their efforts.  To my mind, anyone who can create and maintain a significant edge in the betting markets are deserving of high praise, but when we add to the equation high levels of customer service, honesty and eagerness to please, then we have some real betting heroes producing the goods for us.  Is this a ‘Golden Age’ of commercial tipping, or are we simply seeing the consequences of a less naïve and more demanding customer base?

There’s no reason for any SBC member to not now be sufficiently educated to avoid the scammers and chancers that still undoubtedly lurk in the tipping world, and I feel that we now, when compared to just a few years ago, have higher expectations of those we pay to receive betting advice.  And funnily enough, not just in terms of how much money that advice might make for us.

I genuinely think that now, a tipster can be offering profitable advice and yet struggle to attract and retain custom.  There are plenty of options now that allow us punters to consistently secure the officially advised prices, or at least very close to them.  We can easily go to other tipping services if we feel that communication from the tipster is lacking, or that tips are being offered in ridiculously weak betting markets that make achieving a lasting and ongoing profit almost impossible.  We’re seeing a number of tipsters now that we are capable of following profitably on the exchanges, too.  In short, we need not put up with any tipster who doesn’t match up to some pretty exacting standards.  For that, we should be grateful both to the likes of the SBC who have done so much to create a more honest and open industry, and to the tipsters who have responded and who have put their heart and soul into providing the highest levels of service as well as a good return for our investment.

Performance for February to date…

As it was in January, the first part of the month has been a struggle.  Let’s hope that similarities with last month continue in that we see a strong turnaround and an overall decent profit come month end.

At least Racing Service 2 got back to winning ways on Saturday which I’m sure will be a relief to A.  Nothing spectacular, but a profit is a profit and will be particularly sweet after what has been a relative poor stretch.

The others in fine form at present are Racing Intelligence and Scottish Football Income Booster.  A good job they are, as all the others are finding it all a bit of an uphill battle at the moment.

*Figures in italics are those showing year to date (from Jan 1st) figures:

Bet Alchemist (100 point bank): Staked 15pts, -2.875pts, roi -19.17%, roc -2.88%

Staked 37pts, -1.475pts, roi -3.99%, roc -1.48%

 Racing Service 1 (200): Staked 16pts, -0.75pts, roi -4.69%, roc -0.38%

Staked 51pts, +6.65pts, roi 13.04%, roc 3.33%

Golf Insider (400): Staked 11.2pts, -2.8pts, roi -25%, roc -0.7%

Staked 56.3pts, +10.3pts, roi 18.29%, roc 2.58%

PGA Profit (300): Staked 12pts, -9.64pts, roi -80.33%, roc -3.21%

Staked 20pts, +7.86pts, roi 39.3%, roc 2.62%

Precision Value (200): Staked 26pts, -9.417pts, roi -36.22%, roc -4.71%

Staked 112pts, +13.374pts, roi 11.94%, roc 6.69%

Racing Intelligence (200): Staked 59pts, +22.775pts, roi 38.6%, roc 11.39%

Staked 186.5pts, +30.873pts, roi 16.55%, roc 15.44%

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 18pts, +5.11pts, roi 28.39%, roc 5.11%

Staked 32pts, +9.21pts, roi 28.78%, roc 9.21%

Racing Service 2 (50): Staked 8pts, -1.25pts, roi -15.63%, roc -2.5%

Staked 18.75pts, -6.75pts, roi -36%, roc -13.5%


January Review – double digit ROI as year gets off to strong start.

For only the second time in my life, I was struck down by a migraine last week.  The first time must be some 15 or 20 years ago, and I don’t mind admitting, once in a lifetime is enough.  After doing what men tend to do and assuming the worst, last Tuesday evening I was convinced I had meningitis and the end was nigh.  The wife telling me to stop being a big old jessie did nothing to lighten my gloom, gloom being the operative word as I had to sit in the dark all day with the curtains drawn.  Nightmare things, migraines.  I don’t recommend them.

Anyway, the result was that I didn’t place a bet between Tuesday and Thursday, so my end of month figures aren’t much different to those posted in the last Bet Diary post.

As you know, my stated ambition this year is to post a double digit ROI (no easy task) and to that end 2020 has got off to a promising start.  Seven of the eight services in the portfolio coughed up a profit, the odd one out being Racing Service 2 whose year has got off to a disappointing and frustrating start.  The chap behind the service (Andrew) has emailed all members saying that as a consequence of the recent poor results, he’d refund on a pro rata basis any member who wanted out.  Not on your life!  For me, Andrew is one of – if not the – most talented of horse racing tipsters and I have every confidence that patience will be rewarded; form is temporary and class permanent and all that.  It may not be until next season – who knows? – but one thing is for sure, results will turn.  It’s not exactly been disastrous anyway.  The season as a whole is still in profit.

The understated Precision Value has played the starring role in January, with a 22.8pt profit.  That amounts to bank growth of 11.4% and another 11 months at that level will do very nicely thank you.

One last thing.  What’s all this about races at some meetings going off at funny times?  I’m not a fan.  I get the logic behind it, ie. that there is less risk of races being delayed or overlapping each other on busy days but come on.  Who wants a sure thing in the 1.38 at Wetherby?  And on Saturday afternoons, when I’m often around at a mate’s and his Dad’s watching the racing and flicking between channels, who can remember to turn over to Racing TV for the 2.12?  Not me, I can tell you!

Bet Alchemist (Bank 100pts): Staked 22pts, +1.4pts, roi 6.36%, roc 1.4%

 Racing Service 1 (200): Staked 35pts, +7.4pts, roi 21.14%, roc 3.7%

Golf Insider (400): Staked 45.1pts, +13.1pts, roi 29.04%, roc 3.27%

PGA Profit (200): Staked 8pts, +17.5pts, roi 218.75%, roc 8.75%

Precision Value (200): Staked 86pts, +22.791pts, roi 26.5%, roc 11.4%

Racing Intelligence (200): Staked 127.5pts, +8.098pts, roi 6.35%, roc 4.05%

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 14pts, +4.1pts, roi 29.28%, roc 4.1%

Racing Service 2 (50): Staked 10.75pts, -5.5pts, roi -51.16%, roc -11%

Total: ROI 13.39%, ROC 4.01%