Month: July 2019

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Sick to the stomach…

Nope, not because I’d backed a 50/1 shot that finished a nose second after missing the break out of the stalls, finding itself in a pocket and hemmed in by the rail coming around the home turn, the jockey dropping the whip and then stumbling when leading inside the final furlong.  I mean literally….sick to the stomach.  A bug.  A virus. Food poisoning – whatever.  The outcome was the same and I’ve been knocked sideways.

So apologies, but it means I’m behind on my betting and my figures, so those will have to wait until the next post when I’ll sum everything up.  I’ve no idea how the last few days would have gone.  I’ve just lay in bed, moaning and griping to anyone who’d listen (which was no-one), feeling as if my time was up.

Yesterday however, although not still back to normal, I was at least able to put some generally cognitive thoughts together, and my mind wandered towards Northern Monkey.  Why NMP in particular, I’ve no idea, but I got to remembering how it was when I joined up with the service, some years ago now.

It was the one time when I’ve joined a tipster and have immediately gone on a pretty significant losing run.  Sure, there have been times when I’ve signed up to a new service and lost a bit over the first couple of months or so, but this was different.  This was a proper drawdown.

I remember thinking many times that I would quit.  That this guy didn’t know what he was doing and consequently I was losing good money after bad.  I honestly don’t quite know how I managed to stick with it.  Probably some sort of pig-headedness or perhaps other tipsters I was following at the time were performing well, making the NMP losses easier to bear.  But stick with it I did, and I’ve reaped the rewards year after year since, with really solid profits banked.  Sure, there have been flat spells and losing runs (including a pretty severe recent drawdown) but ultimately it’s come up with the goods.

Anyway, I’m thinking that the largest psychological hurdle to overcome when following tipsters, presents itself when you first sign up and things immediately go pear-shaped.  You’ve built up no trust in the service and you’re losing money; that’s a tough spot to be in.  It means it is essential to fully prepare yourself, to read and re-read reviews, to properly set up a betting bank and to brace yourself for the worst.  Do all that and you have a chance.  Don’t, and you could make a really bad, emotionally-based decision which means you miss out on making good money for many years to come.

Right, I’m off for a glass of Lucozade (the old-fashioned fizzy stuff, not this modern, new-fangled Sports drink malarkey) and a Rich Tea biscuit (other incredibly bland and largely tasteless biccies that immediately collapse when you dunk them in a cuppa, are available).

The three ‘P’s – Patience and Perseverance = Profit.

If you’ve been reading the Bet Diary recently you’ll have noted how difficult things have been for Northern Monkey recently.  A sharp and deep drawdown has been to the sufferance of all followers, and it’s never nice when it happens.  And you know what?  I reckon there’s likely to be some who have decided to quit, or at the very least reduce stakes, perhaps convincing themselves that the edge that has been proven over the last few years has all but disappeared.

Now, just as one swallow does not a summer make, one big pay day does not a drawdown wipe…or something…  But I’ll tell you something.  A really nice winner or two takes the edge off the pain and helps restore any wavering faith.  And that is exactly what happened for Northern Monkey on Saturday.

The day coughed up just over 19 points of lovely, sweet Northern profit.  Wayne went in big on Tis Marvellous in a competitive sprint at Ascot, backing it with a decent stake on it’s own and doubling it up with a few others.  Tis Marvellous was bloomin’ marvellous, winning easily and landing one of the doubles for what was a timely reminder of Wayne’s skills.  There’s still a way to go before the losses from this losing run are fully recouped, but it’s a very real start to doing just that.

Portfolio performance for July to date:

July is still running pretty smoothly and it was another decent week.  Of the seven services offering bets so far, only one is in the red, Football Service 2, who in direct contrast to Northern Monkey, had a torrid Saturday.

Favourable mentions and nods of recognition to MVS (Lite) and Racing Service 3 too, for their efforts last week.

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 16.32%, ROC 2.32%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI 60%, ROC 1.81%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 14pts, +11pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 28pts, +0.775pts.

Football Lay Profits: n/a

Football Service 1: n/a

Golf Insider: Staked 29pts, +17.4pts.

MVS: Staked 33pts, +8.25pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 31.75pts, +14.653pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 18.5pts, -4.74pts.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 46.75pts, +3.75pts.

New exchange friendly racing tipster to add?

Just a very quick update this week as time feels like a valuable commodity.  Interestingly however, a chunk of that time has been writing up a review that SBC members will shortly have access too.  The review is of a horse racing service that can be followed very profitably with both the bookmakers and the Exchanges.  I’m giving serious consideration to adding into the ‘Broxchange’ portfolio, so watch this space.

Portfolio performance for July 1st – 7th

A strong week to start July off, with five of the seven services in action producing a profit.  The two to fail to do so were the two strugglers from last month, Northern Monkey and Racing Service 3.  Let’s hope their fortunes reverse soon.

The only service to really excel was Bet Alchemist who knocked in a lovely 16/1 winner on Saturday.

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 21.15%, ROC 2.32%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI 40.68%, ROC 0.61%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 5pts, +12pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 11pts, +5.6pts.

Football Lay Profits: n/a

Football Service 1: n/a

Golf Insider: Staked 14.5pts, +5.9pts.

MVS: Staked 14pts, +3.25pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 15.75pts, -2.125pts.

Football Service 2: Staked 8.5pts, +0.69pts.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 17.75pts, -3.375pts.

June Review

June ultimately ended in a profit, but the way that came about was a little like your team scoring the winning goal in injury time.  Thanks to Golf Insider’s 80/1 winner and 200/1 second place in the latest European Tour event, which finished on Sunday 30th June, the month wasn’t a bad one for betting at all.  This despite much of the month being a frustrating affair as the good work of four services was made bad by the drastic loss of form of two.

Even Golf Insider’s heroics would have meant a more or less break even month had it not been for a hugely impressive last few days for MVS Lite.  Five winners from five bets on Saturday spewed out over 12 points of profit alone (and well done to any of you who used the multiples strategy here!) and it all just goes to show how betting fortunes can change so very suddenly.

The start of the month was marked by an outstanding day for Racing Service 1 which ensured that this service ended with a fine profit for June as a whole, even if that spectacular start wasn’t built upon.  I’ve not been following for long, but I like what I see – betting into the stronger markets provided by better quality racing is so much more straightforward.

And so to the two miscreants, Northern Monkey and Racing Service 3.  The former has had a torrid time of things as it’s suffered it’s third deepest drawdown of all time.  The fact that it’s recovered from worse in the past shows it is more than capable of turning things around but we also have to be mindful that things could get worse before they get better.  As for RS3, well there’s  no doubt he is a tremendously talented interpreter of the from book too, so we have to be hopeful that he too will put a disappointing month behind him.

Finally, thanks to Golf Insider’s exploits, it was a good month for the Broxchange portfolio.  As the only service from the portfolio in action through June, that’s hardly surprising!

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI -9.61%, ROC 4.85%.

‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI 141.9%, ROC 10.39%

Individual Service Performance

Bet Alchemist: Staked 46pts, +9.087pts, ROI 19.75%, ROC 9.08%.

Racing Service 1: Staked 68pts, +45.175pts, ROI 66.43%, ROC 22.58%

Football Lay Profits: n/a

Football Service 1: n/a

Golf Insider: Staked 70.3pts, +99.762pts, ROI 141.9%, ROC 24.94%.

MVS: Staked 57pts, +26.51pts, ROI 46.5%, ROC 29.45%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 77.125pts, -36.572pts, ROI -47.41%, ROC -45.71%.

Football Service 2: Staked 29pts, +0.59pts, ROI 2.03%, ROC 1.47%.

Racing Service 2: n/a

Racing Service 3: Staked 79.75pts, -17.388, ROI -21.8%, ROC -12.42%.