Month: June 2021

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GOLF: Another 1-2 for the quite fabulous Weekly Golf Value!

Well, well, well.  Just a few weeks after grabbing a 1-2 in the Austrian Open in April, Weekly Golf Value has been at it again.  Again on the European Tour (not a return to be seen over in the States this week), Jonathan Caldwell tipped up at 125/1 won the tournament, whilst Adrian Otaegui followed him up in second.

This really is quite remarkable tipping.  Clearly WGV is overperforming so far this year, as surely such a rate of return can’t be maintained.  So let’s enjoy this hottest of hot streaks for what it is whilst it lasts.  I’m certainly not nit-picking, but I was only able to get 45s against Otaegui compared to the advised 55s so my place return was a little lower than many followers will have secured.

No return for Golf Insider or PGA Profit but both will be looking forward this coming week to the next major, the US Open.

I can’t wait.

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 175pts, -28.134pts, roi -16.17%, roc -14.06%, High 14.35pts, CDD: -42.484pts, Max DD: -60.715pts

 PGA Profit (500): Staked 421pts, +91.73pts, roi 21.78%, roc 18.34%, High +178.5pts, CDD: -86.77pts, Max DD: -115.77pts

 Weekly Golf Value (2,000): 3,753pts, +1,873.24pts, roi 49.91%, roc 93.66%, High 1,928.81pts, CDD: -55.57pts, Max DD: -461.8pts.

Golf Totals: ROI 35.02%, ROC 47.9%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

RACING: Superb from Precision Value as NMP comes close to a biggie.

The first quarter (or thereabouts) of 2021 was a tricky period for Precision Value.  At one point it reached a drawdown figure of almost 25 points.  In the context of a 200 point bank, that is not a disaster of course, but when you’re backing at relatively short odds the day to day grind during a losing spell can be a testing time.  It’s easy to feel that you’re never going to get things back on the right side of the profit curve.  However, PV has proven that by persevering, a good service will come back strong, and after a superb week in which almost 16 points of profit was bagged, it now stands on a year to date high of +55.9 points and is running at an ROI of 12.8%.  That’s a little above the long term average which tends to hover around the 9-10% mark, so I guess we’re due a wee correction the other way at some point.

Northern Monkey is another to reach a YTD high last week after a solid performance.  It was nearly an explosive one as a (small) each way double hit a 13/2 winner alongside a 50/1 shot that finished….second!  To be fair, the latter was fairy comfortably beaten.  This wasn’t one of those where you miss out on a big payday by a nose or something, but still.  Well played that man!

Heading in the opposite direction at present is Bet Alchemist which has extended its recent losing run.  Whilst on the subject of BA – I’ve had a couple of queries from readers saying my figures far exceed theirs.  Is there a strategy I’m using?  The answer is no, but this is a point I’ve made a number of times previously within the Bet Diary but it’s possibly time to make the point again…

The Bet Diary reflects my betting.  It isn’t to be taken as a pinpoint accurate reflection of what everyone will get following the same services.  I miss bets, some I get BOG on (and I know I’ve benefited from that this year with a Bet Alchemist win), there are days when I can’t bet at all (or chose not to, perhaps if I’ve a family thing on), I don’t bet when I’m on holiday and so will miss weeks at a time, etc.  Last year I had a tipster write to me to say that I’d underdone the profit he’d made by about 25%, so it works both ways.  There was also a golf winner I missed t a big price, so my end of year figures for that service were notably lower than the official service results.  Please do remember this.  The Bet Diary reflects what I feel is a more real life experience.  Unless you bet for a living and devote every day to it, how many of us can get on every bet?  I’m afraid I can’t, and therefore there will be times when you might be following the same service as one I do, and be thinking either hang on, Rowan’s not doing as well as I am, or alternatively, how has he netted more profit than I have?

Hope all that makes sense.  See you next week,

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 228pts, +21.205pts, roi 9.3%, roc 21.2%, High: 42.58pts, CDD: -21.375pts, Max DD: -21.375pts.

Northern Monkey (100): Staked 256.75pts, +41.124pts, roi 16.01%, roc 41.12%, High: 41.124pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: -27.028pts

Precision Value (200):  Staked 437pts, +55.986pts, roi 12.81%, roc 27.99%, High: 55.986pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: -24.834pts.

Racing Service 1 (50): Staked 29.5pts, +6.312pts, roi 21.39%, roc 12.62%, High: 12.312pts, CDD: -6pts, Max DD: -8pts.

Racing Totals: ROI 13.91%, ROC 26.52%

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

SPORTS: You can’t eat caviar every day.

Back in the day when Arsenal under Arsene Wenger were in their pomp, Wenger said after an untypical dull draw (with Middlesbrough, if I remember rightly) that the fans booed at the end because they were used to eating caviar, but sometimes they had to make do with sausage.  Or something like that.

So if winning on the golf in the manner of this week’s success (see yesterday’s post) was the caviar, the sports portfolio this past few days has very much been the sausage.

Just nothing really to report. It’s dead quiet.  No darts on, the Scottish football season finished, not much for The Poacher to get stuck into.

So I shan’t bore you.  Let’s see what this week brings.

Sports Service 1 (30pt bank): Staked 21.75pts, +6.885pts, roi 31.51%, roc 22.95%, High: 7.295pts, CDD: -0.41pts, Max DD: -1pts.

Sports Service 2 (40): Staked 52pts, -6.444pts, roi -12.39%, roc -16.11%, High 0pts, CDD: -6.444pts, Max DD: -6.734pts.

Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 88pts, -12.337pts, roi -14.04%, roc -12.33%, High: 4.394pts, CDD: -16.731pts, Max DD: -17.984pts.

The Poacher (40): Staked 218.5pts, +13.898pts, roi 6.36%, roc 34.74%, High: 19.068pts, CDD: -5.17pts, Max DD: -9.645pts

Sports Totals: ROI 3.24%, ROC 6.73%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

GOLF: The luckiest win ever?!?

I’ve been betting a fair while now, but never do I think I’ve been more fortunate than I was with Patrick Cantlay – Weekly Golf Value’s pick at 22/1 – winning the PGA Tour event on Sunday.  Always up near the top of the leaderboard, when I checked the standings on Saturday night I saw that Cantlay was in second place, six shots (yes six!) off the leader Jon Rahm, who had posted an exceptional third round to shoot clear.  I went to sleep hoping that Cantlay wouldn’t blow up and lose a place return on the each way bet.

Come Sunday morning, and I get a message from a mate of mine who also bets on golf, that simply said, “you lucky *so and so*, Cantlay could win!”.  Not sure what he was on about, I checked the PGA Tour website, and there it was.  Rahm had been diagnosed as having Covid during that third round.  Poor fella was told as soon as he had finished that round and was forced to withdraw from the tournament so that he could isolate.  So now I’m left with Cantlay in a share for the lead heading into the final round!

If that wasn’t lucky enough, it then looked as if Cantlay was going to come off second best to Morikawa, incidentally tipped up by Golf Insider.  But a 23 foot putt on the 17th drew him level (skill I guess, but has to be an element of luck from that distance, doesn’t there?) and into a playoff.  Playoffs.   50:50 affairs, I reckon.  The golfing equivalent to a penalty shoot out.  Certainly it could go either way.

Cantlay won at the first extra hole.  A guy six shots off the lead going into the final day, the benefactor of the runaway leader’s Covid diagnosis, forcing a play off with an extra long putt, and then winning the play off.  When your luck is in, it really is in.

A place too for PGA Profit – luckily had eight places on a 100/1 shot that tied with two others for sixth.  Do the maths.

It was my lucky week.

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 167pts, -20.134pts, roi -12.05%, roc -10.06%, High 14.35pts, CDD: -34.484pts, Max DD: -60.715pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 413pts, +99.73pts, roi 24.14%, roc 19.94%, High +178.5pts, CDD: -78.77pts, Max DD: -115.77pts

Weekly Golf Value (2,000): 3,599pts, +1,645.61pts, roi 45.72%, roc 82.28%, High 1,928.81pts, CDD: -283.2pts, Max DD: -461.8pts.

Golf Totals: ROI 33.16%, ROC 43.6%

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

SPORTS: The Poacher keeping on poaching profit.

Premier League darting action last week for Sports Service 1 to get stuck into and a bit more profit added to the coffers from the four picks provided.  Taking it week by week, this means that SS1’s deepest drawdown for the year to date has reached…wait for it…just one point!  That’s quite the thing bearing in mind we’re nearly halfway through 2021 already.

Four bets from Sports Service 2 and three wins, but because of the odds ranges a small loss on the week.  It feels such a struggle at the moment and when betting at such short odds, the pressure on achieving a very high strike rate is increased.  Really hoping for a better few months ahead.

It seems The Poacher is back to full fitness after his recent ill health, and certainly his tips showed form that can only be called rudely healthy!  A shade over four points profit – an increase in ROC of over 10% – for the week means that the Sports portfolio enjoyed a profitable time of it.

Sports Service 1 (30pt bank): Staked 21.75pts, +6.885pts, roi 31.51%, roc 22.95%, High: 7.295pts, CDD: -0.41pts, Max DD: -1pts.

Sports Service 2 (40): Staked 49pts, -5.984pts, roi -12.21%, roc -14.96%, High 0pts, CDD: -5.984pts, Max DD: -6.734pts.

 Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 88pts, -12.337pts, roi -14.04%, roc -12.33%, High: 4.394pts, CDD: -16.731pts, Max DD: -17.984pts.

 The Poacher (40): Staked 214pts, +16.458pts, roi 7.69%, roc 41.14%, High: 19.068pts, CDD: -2.61pts, Max DD: -9.645pts

Sports Total: ROI 4.25%, ROC 8.62%.

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown

RACING: A bumpy road for Precision Value but a new profit high.

A very quiet week for Bet Alchemist with just the three bets issued on the Saturday the only action for members to get stuck into.  Sadly all three failed to produce a return, and so the deepest drawdown for the year to date has deepened.  No cause for alarm though.  The drawdown is only -13 points, hardly even significant.

Northern Monkey was hardly prolific either and it too had a relatively quiet week.  The end result was essentially a break even position so nothing really to provoke comment.

By far the busiest was Precision Value which also gave the bumpiest of rides.  The first 14 bets of the week all lost, and I was beginning to worry that all the recent good work by the service was in the process of being undone in the space of a couple of really bad days.  Fortunately it was able to pull things around and a really good Saturday, which netted over six points of profit, meant that when all was said and done for the week we were left nearly a point up.  Doesn’t sound a lot, but I would have killed for such an outcome earlier in the week, and it is enough to push the high point for the year a little further up.

All told then, a very small deficit on the week.  On to the next…

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 218pts, +29.58pts, roi 13.56%, roc 29.58%, High: 42.58pts, CDD: -13pts, Max DD: -13pts.

Northern Monkey (100): Staked 245pts, +34.384pts, roi 14.03%, roc 34.38%, High: 36.931pts, CDD: -2.547pts, Max DD: -27.028pts

Precision Value (200):  Staked 404pts, +40.236pts, roi 9.95%, roc 20.11%, High: 40.236pts, CDD: 0pts, Max DD: -24.834pts.

Racing Service 1 (50): Staked 29.5pts, +6.312pts, roi 21.39%, roc 12.62%, High: 12.312pts, CDD: -6pts, Max DD: -8pts.

Racing Total: ROI 13.35%, ROC 24.17%

*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown