If you haven’t read this article yet, written by the SBC’s own Head Honcho (his official title, you understand), then you really must. It’s essential reading.
When links to the article were sent out on social media, I was amused at a tweet from SBC Hall of Fame tennis tipster Nishi Kori, who stated (confessed?) that his record run of consecutive losers reached 16:
“even though you know this can happen, you know the variance, bla bla bla… the truth is that, after 16 consecutive losses, is not easy not becoming depressed.”
And that made me think. The maths and probabilities of losing runs is relatively easy to get a grip on (read the article – it explains). But what I personally struggle to get my head around is how a professional tipster, who charges subscription fees, can carry on looking for value in the betting markets without deviating from his or her methods. You will know how mentally challenging it can be at times, just following tipsters. But coming under ever increasing pressure as losers mount up, not from just yourself but from a following that has handed over money for the benefit of your expertise, keeping a clear head and a focus without succumbing to negativity must be immensely difficult. Hats off to those that do it.
Short termism is such a danger when we’re betting, but it struck me this week that it isn’t just in gambling that it has an effect. How many times do we feel that a football manager, who has demonstrated an ability to eke out considerable improvement in what had previously been a rabble of a team, get the sack at the first sign of a bump in the road? In Jurgen Klopp’s first season as manager at Liverpool, he won only 13 of 30 games and Liverpool finished 8th. Liverpool stuck with him, and now look what’s happened (much as it pains me to say!). The benefits to Liverpool’s focus on the long-term and their confidence that in the German they’d got the right man in should inform other Clubs of the folly of getting rid of managers at the first sign of trouble. It’s the same with us and tipsters. Let’s have belief in our decision making process when we choose which tipsters to invest in, and only look to act if we see some underlying alteration to methods or approach when a sticky spell hits.
Nope, short termism should be treated by us bettors as the most deadly of the deadly betting sins, and something to avoid at all costs. If we kept chopping and changing tipsters on the same sort of whim that sees Fantasy Football Managers buying last week’s top points scorer, whilst discarding the top points scorer from the week before that but who had blanked last week, we’d never make any money. (Please note, that is never me. Never. Honestly, never, never, never…but I might just bring Vardy back in this week after selling him last week).
There are many more examples from other areas of life, but I imagine you don’t need me to spell any more out to you. You get the point I’m making, I’m sure. So next time we suffer a losing run, we’re going to laugh in it’s face. We’re going to show we won’t be bullied into making bad decisions, and we’re going to stay calm and patient.
Now, if Vardy doesn’t get a hat trick at the weekend, I’m finished with him. Finished I tell you. I’ll be so, so mad, and he’ll be sold, and he’ll be ignored for ever and ever. Well, until the next time he scores, anyway…
Portfolio performance for November (to the 22nd)
Bet Alchemist (100 point bank): Staked 28pts, +9.587pts
Golf Insider (400): Staked 48.5pts, +52.837pts
Northern Monkey (100): Staked 34.25pts, +23.167pts.
PGA Profit (500): Staked 62pts, -28pts
Precision Value (200): Staked 72pts, +1.791pts
Racing Intelligence (200): Staked 215pts, -35.341pts
Scottish Football Income Booster (100): Staked 19pts, -3.281pts
Racing Service 1 (50): Staked 11.5pts, -3.742pts.
Total for November: ROI 4.7%, ROC 1.77%