Month: July 2023

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PGA Profit adds to the smugness

You may have read in Monday’s post about my smugness at having backed Joel Dahmen to win, only to see him drop from second place and looking assured of a place for each way backers, to 10th and out of the places by messing up the last five holes or so.  However, that is really only half the story, and adding to my overall unbearable smugness was the fact that I had PGA Profit’s Akshay Bhatia (40.0) winning a play off somewhat fortuitously against Patrick Rodgers to land the odds.  Happy days!

To be fair, PGA Profit has suffered from a pretty poor run on the luck front, so having some fortune to land the spoils was due.

Elsewhere and it was a really steady week for the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker, with my Lucky 15s netting over 18 points of profit and taking me to a new profit high for the year to date (starting from 1st April).  There were a couple of decent slips but nothing that anyone could call spectacular.  The c.100 point profit bet has so far eluded me in 2023 so far, but I shall plug away until I hit one, whenever that may be.

I think I made something of a b*lls up on Saturday.  I was convinced the The Lionesses’ World Cup match against Haiti was a DD/HH opportunity, and with plenty of value around I ended up backing four players at fairly sizeabl stakes.  The fact England’s first (and only) goal was a penalty scored by a player who wasn’t one of my four stung a little.  I then read somewhere that Fred hadn’t offered the DD/HH concession on the game, in which case I’m a right plonker!

With the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker and WGV not providing a winner this week (read Monday’s post) I was left with a small overall profit on the week, and a new high watermark for total profit for ytd.

Just a note too, that I’m off on my holibobs at the weekend (Crete, seeing as you asked – let’s hope the wildfires afflicting other Greek islands doesn’t hit!) so no Bet Diary posts next week.

Until I get back…

DD/HH: Staked 65.55pts, -17.1pts, roi -25.88%, High: 3.05pts, DD: -20.15pts, Max DD: -20.15pts.

Edwards Tips (Golf Outrights): Staked 52.4pts, +18.987pts, roi 36.23%, High: 23.187pts, DD: -4.2pts, Max DD: -5.126pts.

Football Coupons: Staked 19pts, +5.338pts, roi 28.07%, High: 14.03pts, DD: -8.692pts, Max DD: -8.692pt.

Golf: Staked 3,399pts, -433.99pts, roi -12.76%, High: 135.39pts, DD: -596.38pts, Max DD: -596.38pts

BB Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 261pts, +16.731pts, roi 6.33%, High: 16.731pts, DD: 0pts, Max DD: -16.801pts.


PGA Profit: Staked 267pts, +69.298pts, roi 25.95%, High: 84.858pts, DD: -15.56pts, Max DD: -97.076pts.

Sys Analyst: Staked 209.4pts, +47.903pts, roi 22.87%, High: 47.903pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -15.79pts.

Weekly Golf Value/BB Golf Tracker: Staked 3,399pts, -433.99pts, roi -12.76%, High: 135.39pts, DD: -596.38pts, Max DD: -596.38pts

TOTAL:  roi 10.84%

Feeling smug despite losing.

Most golfing eyes would have been focused on Hoylake this weekend, as the world’s best players fought it out to win The Open.  But with not having a golfer anywhere close to winning there (and no-one did if they weren’t on Brian Harman), my attention was on the less prestigious Barracuda Championship over in sunny California, where Weekly Golf Value pick Joel Dahmen worked his way into strong contention.  In fact, Dahmen was just two points off the lead at roughly halfway through the final round.  I say points and not shots, because some daft scoring method was employed for this tournament which to be frank, I don’t understand.

What I did know was that Dahmen winning would provide a very nice return to this win-only backer.  Did he win?  No, did he heck!  Bogeying three of the last five holes is never going to have you going in the right direction no matter what the scoring system.  Dahmen finished in a tie for 10th.

And you know what?  I couldn’t but help feel a little bit smug.  Seeing someone collapse from 2nd to 10th over the last few holes would be particularly disappointing had I backed the lad each way.  I’d likely have assumed I was in for some sort of decent return from the place part of the bet, and felt rather annoyed had I not bagged it.

I know far, far more golfers I back win-only are going to finish in the frame than repeat what Dahmen did on Sunday night.  But for this week only, let me enjoy my completely irrational smugness.

Results update on Wednesday…

Sys Anayst the star!

Focusing primarily on the July meeting at Newmarket last week, Sys Analyst really came to the fore and was undoubtedly the stand out service.  Four good winners meant an overall profit of over 20 points and this was more than enough to put the service very firmly on a new profit high for me.  Grand stuff.

You might have read about the tragic near misses on the golf in Monday’s post.  Whatever, the net result is Weekly Golf Value/Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker hitting a low point for the year to date (remember the “year” started only in April, so I’m as far away from being concerned as I can possibly be.  No luck either for Edwards Tips and the tremendously unlucky PGA Profit.

As for the Bookiebashing Racing Tracker, the Lucky 15s really are the essence of using a strategy with the hope of more or less breaking even whilst waiting for the big winning slip.  The ROI figure you see below tells you everything.

DD/HH: Staked 55.05pts, -6.6pts, roi -11.88%, High: 3.05pts, DD: -9.65pts, Max DD: -15.85pts.

Edward Tips (Golf Outrights): Staked 51.45pts, +19.937pts, roi 38.75%, High: 23.187pts, DD: -3.25pts, Max DD: -5.126pts.

Football Coupons: Staked 19pts, +5.338pts, roi 28.07%, High: 14.03pts, DD: -8.692pts, Max DD: -8.692pts.

BB Racing Tracker/Lucky 15s: Staked 238.067pts, -1.943pts, roi -0.8%, High: 14.655pts, DD: -16.598pts, Max DD: -16.801pts.

NFL: n/a

PGA Profit: Staked 244.5pts, +13.358pts, roi 5.46%, High: 84.858pts, DD: -71.5pts, Max DD: -97.076pts.

Sys Analyst: Staked 178.2pts, +47.512pts, roi 26.66%, High: 47.512pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD: -15.79pts.

Value Bets: Staked 40pts, +3.9pts, roi 9.75%, High: 16.9pts, DD: -13pts, Max DD: -13pts.

Weekly Golf Value/BB Golf Tracker: Staked 3,235pts, -269.99pts, roi -9.18%, High: 135.39pts, DD: -432.38pts, Max DD: -581.59pts

TOTAL: roi 9.85%

The pain of Seconditis.

I knew that when I changed my golf betting strategy to one which largely depended on the players I back winning and not merely placing, then pain was likely to follow.  I’m also determined for the Monday Bet Diary post to not become a weekly moan at misfortune suffered from the previous week’s golf tournaments.

However, having Robert McIntyre (120.0) and staked big due to him being tipped by both Weekly Golf Value and PGA Profit ultimately finish second behind a Rory McIlroy who had to birdie two tough closing holes to win by one shot, I didn’t need what happened over in the US event last night.  Having backed Trevor Cone – also at 120.0 – to see him double bogey the 16th to ultimately finish one shot behind two players who then had to go through a play off wasn’t nice.  What was so ridiculously close to a bumper pay out on the day ended with no returns whatsoever.  Nothing.  Niente.  Nada.  Diddly squat!

All told I think I took it all in good grace.  No point in dwelling on what could have been.  Just concentrate on this week coming and all the excitement that might bring.  I was warned that backing golfers win-only was going to be a test.  I guess it’s the betting equivalent to going through the training for the Marines or Foreign Legion.

Oh well.  Not to dwell.  What will The Open bring?

Figures update on Wednesday…

Winners, but a small loss on the week.

You may have read Monday’s post where I was announcing my self-satisfaction at having landed upon a winner via the use of the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker.  At odds of 65.0, too.  And yet despite this, last week was a losing week (albeit not by much), and even golf itself didn’t turn a profit. Neither PGA Profit nor Edwards Tips had the winner of any of the tournaments and my relative staking meant golf generated a (very small) overall deficit.

On the nags and hats off to Sys Analyst, with which I’m currently running at a very healthy ROI of 19%.  All this using the Exchanges only, by the way.  I know it’s relatively early days with this service for me, but the signs are very promising indeed.  I’ve not had any issues getting on, am deliberately waiting until the markets are strong before making the bets (jumping on as soon as the tips are received would do nobody any favours!)…so all (better than) good so far!  Of course, a few winners helps, and we had some of those last week too.

Not a great week for the Lucky 15s gained via use of the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker.  It happens, and ultimately lost only a shade over 6 points, which is enough to drag the profit and loss line since April just below the break even marker.  Absolutely nothing in the slightest to be concerned about though.  Just need to be patient and to continue getting as many bets down as possible.

DD/HH: Staked 55.05pts, -6.6pts, roi -11.88%, High: 3.05pts, DD: -9.65pts, Max DD: -15.85pts.

Edwards Tips: Staked 26.7pts, +21.437pts, roi 42.91%, High: 23.187pts, DD: -1.75pts, Max DD: -5.126pts.

Football Coupons: Staked 19pts, +5.338pts, roi 28.07%, High: 14.03pts, DD: -8.692pts, Max DD: -8.692pts.

Lucky 15s/BB Racing Tracker: Staked 220.067pts, -2.146pts, roi -0.96%, High: 14.655pts, DD: -16.801pts, Max DD: -16.801pts.

NFL: n/a

PGA Profit: Staked 228pts, +29.858pts, roi 13.09%, High: 84.858pts, DD: -55pts, Max DD: -97.076pts.

Sys Analyst: Staked 141.2pts, +26.946pts, roi 19.08%, High: 27.284pts, DD: -0.338pts, Max DD: -15.79pts.

Value Bets: Staked 40pts, +3.9pts, roi 9.75%, High: 16.9pts, DD: -13pts, Max DD: -13pts.

Weekly Golf Value/BB Golf Tracker: Staked 3,022pts, -83.99pts, roi -2.77%, High: 135.39pts, DD: -219.38pts, Max DD: -581.59pts

TOTAL ROI: 12.03%

Hot streak on the golf continues as the BB Golf Tracker produces a winner.

I can’t say that I was beginning to despair, because due to cricket coaching commitments on Sunday I was unaware of how my golf bets were doing at the time they were doing it, if you see what I mean?  But I did at one point see that Ritchie Ramsey had gone into the outright lead with just one hole to play in the DP World Tour event.  Ramsey was one I got from the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker as opposed to being a golfer who had been tipped, and was decent value so I had a nice amount on at a price of 80.0.  He finished one shot behind in 3rd, after double-bogeying the last hole!

On to the LIV event and thanks to Weekly Golf Value I was on Marc Leishman at 90.0.  He finished 2nd, one shot behind the winner.  This is where betting golf win only is so frustrating and why to follow such a strategy, you need the patience of a saint.

I’d more or less given up on the day and had mentally written off the golf, but then Sepp Straka at 65.0 shot a 62 on his final round to win.  Now, I wasn’t watching, but I have seen that he too, a la Ramsey, double-bogeyed the last hole.  For the sake of my heart, it was perhaps fortuitous that I wasn’t watching!  Unlike Ramsey however, this mishap at the final hole of the competition wasn’t fatal, and Straka ultimately won by two strokes.

I felt a little for PGA Profit who had put up Straka in last week’s tournament, and including in the write-up this:

Quite possibly one of the streakiest players on the PGA Tour, but he’s always had the ability to make birdies in bunches.

PGA didn’t put Straka up this week, but when you see that Straka birdied nine, and eagled one of the first 14 holes of his round yesterday, you have to admit that’s not a bad read from PGA!

Pleasingly, Straka was a bet I found by using the BB Tracker, and I did so because as I stated last week, I wanted to start looking to cover more of the field in terms of win probability.  Ramsey was a consequence of this too, and that so nearly paid off.  It won’t be like this every week of course, but it’s very encouraging when tweaking your approach slightly, when things work out so well early doors.

Figures on Wednesday.

Another winner for Edwards Tips, and SBC on the Bash Cast…

I genuinely can’t remember when I put the bet on Edwards Tip’s Daniel Hiller to win the British Masters last week, but after scoring Eagle-Birdie-Eagle to win by two shots, I could see from the new balance in my Smarkets account there’d been a boost, and I had to check each bet to find the 150.0 I’d taken.

This all sounds a bit flippant.  “Oh, I had a big win on Sunday from a bet I couldn’t remember placing”, makes me sound to me like I’m a bit of an arse.  To be honest, I probably am, but not because of that.  There’s all sorts of reasons people might think I’m an arse.  Just ask my wife!

Anyway, it was good to get another win and things continue to push forward (figures update on Wednesday).

Meanwhile, I enjoyed listening the the SBC’s very own Big Cheese Pete on the latest Bookie Bashing “BashCast” talking to Tom Brownlee about his win-only strategy for backing golfers on the Exchanges.  Pete’s approach is, as it happens, very similar to my own, the only real difference being that he tends to cover 20-25% of the field if he can whilst I haven been covering more like 15%.

I’m tempted to go this way too.  If you’re confident you’ve taking +EV bets, then volume should be a good thing, and by covering a larger percentage of the field in terms of win probability then the losing runs ought, logically, to be shorter.  That’s not to say there won’t still be testing times.  There will.  You can’t be backing golfers at big prices to win tournaments and expect to be visiting the online counter to “pick up” winnings frequently.  Pete was saying himself that earlier this year he went 14 tournaments with only one success, and after some analysis conducted by Tom on the BB win-only stats, there was a period of a year and three months that the P&L ran below the previous high point.  I guess the lesson here is no matter what, patience really is a must when it comes to golf betting!