Month: March 2022

Bet Diary Email Updates

Follow Rowan's Profitable Betting Quest

Receive each of Rowan's Bet Diary posts direct to your inbox and never miss an update on his profitable tipster portfolio.

Enter your email address below to receive the latest from Rowan each week:

We won't send you spam. You can also unsubscribe at any time. Powered by ConvertKit

RACING: How to (nearly) double your bank with one small bet.

Thursday 24th March.

16/1 – Placed.

16/1- WIN

8/1 – WIN.

11/1 – WIN.

That was my Bookiebashing Racing Tracker Lucky 15, one of six Lucky 15s I placed on the day. And wow!

That one bet provided 90 points of profit, from a 100 point bank.  Without a shadow of a doubt, the most profitable single bet I have ever placed. I went to bed with a smile on my face, I can tell you.

I’ve been saying that it was only a matter of time before I hit a big one with BB.  I’ve placed a good number of multiples now, and up to this point I was regularly getting two to place, or one to place with a winner, or a winner and two placed, etc.  You get the picture.  I just needed the placed/winners to align, and that was going to happen at some point or other.  And lo and behold, last Thursday, they did.

Overall I am just so impressed with Bookiebashing.  Everything they do and have on the site reeks of profit and how to gain it.  As long as you understand the principles of EV (Expected Value), accept that it can take a fair amount of time for the positive EV to kick in but remain firm in your conviction that it will, and set yourself up appropriately in terms of betting bank, then you will profit.

It could be months before I hit another winner like the one last Thursday.  Or it could happen again tomorrow.  No-one knows and no-one can predict.  But it will happen again.

In the meantime, this one bet has pulled my racing portfolio into profit as a collective for the first time this year, and having been running at a fairly hefty negative ROI, I’m now sailing along at nearly 45%.  Happy days.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 48pts, -20.638pts, roi -42.99%, roc -20.63%, High 0pts, DD -20.638pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 75.625pts, -28.28pts, roi -37.39%, roc -35.35%, High 0pts, DD -28.28pts, Max DD -28.28pts

Racing Service 1 (40): Staked 8.5pts, +2.71pts, roi 31.88%, roc 6.77%, High 2.71pts, DD -0pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 40pts, +116.107pts, roi 290.26%, roc 116.1%, High 116.107pts, DD 0pts, Max DD 0pts

Racing Totals: ROI 44.86%, ROC 23.98%

SPORTS: Feeling *blurgh*

This is going to be one of the shortest Bet Diary posts on record.  With no main league football going on in Europe due to the interminable internationals (yawn), it’s been a week of very few bets.

Add to that that after two years of escaping its clutches, yours truly has been struck down with Covid.  I’m not feeling my best, shall we say?

However, tune in tomorrow for a Racing post that highlights some explosive results.

‘Til then…

Sports Service 1 (30pt bank): Staked 22.5pts, +2.26pts, roi 10.04%, roc 7.53%, High 3.26pts, DD -1pts, Max DD -1.55pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 86pts, +4.605pts, roi 5.35%, roc 11.51%, High 6.606pts, DD -2.0010pts, Max DD -4.061pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 9pts, +0.66pts, roi 7.33%, roc 1.32%, High 0.66pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 6.52%, ROC 6.54%

GOLF: Not going according to plan.

Another poor week, sadly.

Looking at the golf portfolio as a whole, there are currently four services who are on a new drawdown level for 2022 to date – Golf Insider, Ben Coley, Tour Tips, and Weekly Golf Value.

WGV is in a (strong) overall profit position however, and only had a winner last week, so nothing at all to worry about there.  However it, and now The Rainmaker (courtesy of a 400/1 shot finishing in 2nd place in Qatar this week) are in positive territory.  All the others are currently showing a loss.

Look, this is likely to happen.  The one thing we know about golf betting is that it is all about patience.  We can go long periods between drinks, and at the moment, we’re feeling pretty dry.  It can all turn around so quickly though.  We’ve seen that happen before, and I have no doubt we will see it happen again.

Just the one tournament coming up this week, so will be a quieter time of it.

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 120pts, -17.23pts, roi -14.35%, roc -8.61%, High 29.24pts, DD -46.47pts, Max DD -46.47pts

PGA Profit (500pt): Staked 227.5pts, -68.25pts, roi -30%, roc -13.65%, High 0pts, DD -68.25pts, Max DD -70.75pts

European Tour (500): Staked 56.5pts, -40pts, roi -70.79%, roc -8%. High 0pts, DD -40pts, Max DD -47.5pts

Ben Coley (600): Staked 300pts, -15.97pts, roi -5.32%, roc -2.66%, High 79.93pts, DD -95.9pts, Max DD -95.9pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 66pts, -10.386pts, roi -15.73%, roc -6.92%, High 19.614pts, DD -30pts, Max DD -30pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 1,242.5pts, +832.22pts, roi 66.97%, roc 41.61%, High 1,136.72pts, DD -304.5pts, Max DD -304.5pts

The Rainmaker (400): Staked 100.5pts, +5.2pts, roi 5.17%, roc 1.3%, High 5.2pts, DD: -0pts, Max DD -10.8pts

Golf Totals: ROI 1.18%, ROC 0.46%

SPORTS: Inching forward.

With Cheltenham on  last week the Sports bets took a step into the shade, and there really wasn’t much going on.  With no bets for Sports Service 1, it was left to The Poacher for all the action and the eight bets issued delivered just a tiny sliver of profit (0.267pts).

It might only be a sliver, but it keeps the Sports services pushing on to new heights for the year to date, and that is a situation you will never hear me complain about!

It reminds me of that speech made to his American Football team by Al Pacino in Any Given Sunday, and all that talk of inches.  Inches here, inches there, inches everywhere.

“On this team, we fight for that inch. On this team, we tear ourselves and everyone else around us to pieces for that inch. We claw with our fingernails for that inch because we know when we add up all those inches, that’s going to make the *bleeping* difference between winning and losing, between living and dying.”

Well, last week’s profit amounted to the monetary equivalent of an inch, I reckon.  I hope my tipsters read this post.  Goddammit they need to know we’re in a fight!  We’re scrapping against the bookies, and together we’ll claw with our fingernails for an inch.  As Pacino went on to say, “by ‘eck we will”!

Come on  SS1!  Come on The Poacher!  Let’s keep them inches coming.

Right, I’m going for a sit down…

Sports Service 1 (30pt bank): Staked 21.5pts, +3.26pts, roi 15.16%, roc 10.86%, High 3.26pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -1.55pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 81pts, +6.606pts, roi 8.15%, roc 16.51%, High 6.606pts, DD -0pts, Max DD -4.061pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 9pts, +0.66pts, roi 7.33%, roc 1.32%, High 0.66pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 9.68%, ROC 9.2%

GOLF: A winner but a loss.

Strange old week this week on the golf, for despite backing the winner of the US PGA Tour event courtesy of Weekly Golf Value, Sam Burns at 22/1, I still ended up losing overall.  Good job Burns sank a 30+ foot putt on the second play off hole to win, eh?

WGV is streaking ahead in terms of the most profitable service for the year to date in my portfolio.  It’s performance over the first quarter of the year has been nothing short of heroic.  The ROI figure of 95.45% clearly says as much.

Other than Tour Tips, which had 0/3, each service had at least one golfer place, but there simply weren’t enough of them to provide a profit across the tournaments.  Not much else to add to that, really.  It’s a matter of going on to this week coming and plugging away.  Betting in a nutshell.

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 106pts, -7.96pts, roi -7.5%, roc -3.98%, High 29.24pts, DD -37.2pts, Max DD -37.2pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 211.5pts, -70.75pts, roi -33.45%, roc -14.1%, High 0pts, DD -70.75pts, Max DD -70.75pts

European Tour (500): Staked 47.5pts, -47.5pts, roi -100%, roc -9.5%. High 0pts, DD -47.5pts, Max DD -47.5pts

Ben Coley (600): Staked 267pts, +17.03pts, roi 6.37%, roc 2.83%, High 79.93pts, DD -62.9pts, Max DD -83pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 60pts, -4.386pts, roi -7.31%, roc -2.92%, High 19.614pts, DD -24pts, Max DD -24pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 1,061.5pts, +1,013.22pts, roi 95.45%, roc 50.66%, High 1,136.72pts, DD -123.5pts, Max DD -275.5pts

The Rainmaker (400): Staked 66pts, -10.8pts, roi -16.36%, roc -2.7%, High 0pts, DD: -10.8pts, Max DD -10.8pts

Golf Totals: ROI 9.09%, ROC 3.12%

Cheltenham 2022…and already looking forward to Cheltenham 2023.

I had hoped that this weekend I’d be able to post a long, detailed analysis of winners galore tipped up by the racing guys I follow.  This will not be that.  Why not?  Because put simply, there were no winners galore.  Winners were indeed, in pretty short supply.

In the end, after all had been totted up and accounted for, I more or less broke even.

I like to keep my Bet Diary posts upbeat.  Over the years I’ve been able to manage my emotions much better than I used to, keeping deliberately on a mental even keel when things are going well and when not so well.  But Cheltenham has been different.  Cheltenham has allowed me to get carried away with the moment, celebrating good wins, agonizing over near misses, agonizing over the horrible days only to be picked up and placed on a high when a great day has followed.  I’ve immersed myself in the drama of the sport, sitting from the comfort of my sofa, watching all the action unfold, all the stories resonating for one reason or another.

But this year I’ve been frustrated by work commitments, and frankly I saw very, very little of the actual racing.  It divorced me from the occasion, prevented me from placing some of Northern Monkey’s more ‘involved’ multiples (including in the run-up to the Festival) and generally reduced the week to just another.  It’s been weird.  It felt like all the excitement was happening behind my back, which I suppose it was.

Anyway, enough of the downbeat.  How did we actually do?

Bet Alchemist had an absolute stinker the first two days, but although the “day-to-day” single bets produced a near ten point loss for the week, a Yankee that had Honeysuckle winning the Champion Hurdle, Bob Olinger the Turners’ Novices Chase, and Elimay the Mares’ Chase generated a profit of over 14 points.  If only Minella Indo – the fourth leg – had won the Gold Cup instead of finishing second (and well beaten, to be honest) – then we’d have had a bumper pay day!

I feel for Wayne (Northern Monkey).  He clearly put a huge amount of effort over the preceding months to try to replicate previous years’ successes, but this year it just wasn’t to be.  Stricken by a terrible punting disease called ‘seconditis’, he came incredibly close to landing some monster profit, but the Gods were cruel and my NMP balance sheet for the week showed a very small deficit.  It may be different for those followers who were on all the multiples I don’t know.  I wasn’t.

Finally, Racing Service 1 was conspicuous by his quietness.  Just one bet each day, with the last one, A Plus Tard successful and netting a small profit overall (this was a winner too for NMP).

So we move on.  Any lingering thoughts of resentment from missing the action can be firmly dismissed as we look forward to the imminent start of the flat season.  That’s the thing with racing.  There’s always something to look forward to.  Roll on Cheltenham 2023!

Bet Alchemist: Staked 35 pts, +5.391pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 39.5pts, -2.319pts.

Racing Service 1: Staked 2.5pts, +1pt.

Cheltenham ROI: 3.14%

GOLF: Washout!

The weather was a bit of a nightmare down Florida way last week, and as a result of the rain the US Tour event didn’t finish until Monday.  Unfortunately, the soggy weather was matched by an equally soggy performance by our tipsters, and after things were going swimmingly just a month ago, now we’re drowning.

A lack of returns mean that Golf Insider, PGA Profit and Weekly Golf Value are now going through their deepest drawdowns for this year to date.  A blank for Tour Tips means they are perilously close to the same.  All services made a loss.

So, a week to forget.  Actually, a couple of weeks to forget now.  The ups and downs of golf betting, eh?  We’ll have The Rainmaker bets to add to the records from next week too.  Just wanted to see how it works, make sure I could get the prices (I could had I wanted to), and ease my way in last week.  This week will see the money go down.

Right, no post tomorrow.  Doesn’t quite feel right talking about racing with Cheltenham in full swing.  So instead, watch out for a post on Saturday which will go over the Festival and how it’s all gone.

Until then…

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 94pts, -5.26pts, roi -5.59%, roc -2.63%, High 29.24pts, DD -34.5pts, Max DD -34.5pts

PGA Profit (500pt): Staked 192.5pts, -56.25pts, roi -29.22%, roc -11.25%, High 0pts, DD -56.25pts, Max DD -56.25pts

European Tour (500): Staked 47.5pts, -47.5pts, roi -100%, roc -9.5%. High 0pts, DD -47.5pts, Max DD -47.5pts

Ben Coley (600): Staked 243pts, +30.23pts, roi 12.44%, roc 5.03%, High 79.93pts, DD -49.7pts, Max DD -83pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 54pts, +1.614pts, roi 2.98%, roc 1.07%, High 19.614pts, DD -18pts, Max DD -19.436pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 948.5pts, +861.22pts, roi 90.79%, roc 43.06%, High 1,136.72pts, DD -275.5pts, Max DD -275.5pts

The Rainmaker (400): n/a

Golf Totals: ROI 11.91%, ROC 4.19%

SPORTS: More profit as attention turns to Cheltenham.

Goodness, it’s Cheltenham week!  It’s kinda snuck up, somehow.  It’s going to be a bit of a different for me this year as sadly I’m not going to be able to do what I usually do and set up camp in front of the telly for four days, moving only for “comfort” breaks and to grab something from the fridge.  Shame.

No doubt it will be exciting stuff.  It always is.  I could do with my racing services coming up with the goods as they’ve been pretty underwhelming so far this year. It would be lovely if Northern Monkey could repeat last year’s heroics.  I can’t remember exactly how much profit NMP made at the Festival last year.  I’ve got c.45 points profit in my head for some reason, but I could be wrong.  Either way, it was a big chunk we took off the bookies, and I’m sure we’d all love to do that again.

I’ve just changed the running order of the Bet Diary posts this week as due to some rather inclement (ie. wet) weather over in Florida, the Players’ Championship golf tournie is still on the go as I type.  So instead of the usual Monday golf update, I’m turning my attention to the Sports portfolio.

And what a solid week last week has been.  Both Sports Service 1 and The Poacher have pushed their respective profit up to a new high for the year to date, and the ROI for this portfolio now lies north of 10%, which is about twice that of my long term target.  SS1 tipped three winners from four bets and The Poacher was going nicely until giving a bit back on Sunday, but all told, the sports tipsters are producing the goods and after last year’s struggles, it’s great to see.

All that remains is for me to wish you all the best of Cheltenham luck.  May you back big priced winners galore!

Sports Service 1 (30pt bank): Staked 21.5pts, +3.26pts, roi 15.16%, roc 10.86%, High 3.26pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -1.55pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 73pts, +6.339pts, roi 8.68%, roc 15.84%, High 6.339pts, DD -0pts, Max DD -4.061pts 

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 9pts, +0.66pts, roi 7.33%, roc 1.32%, High 0.66pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 10.16%, ROC 8.99%

RACING: Loving the Bookiebashing Racing Tracker!

I love it.

Only been using the Bookiebashing Racing Tracker tentatively whilst settling on my approach as to how exactly I’m going to use it.  Despite not really getting close to any really significant wins in the first couple of weeks, I could see very quickly that it was simply a matter of staying patient and the bigger wins would come.  Having said that, initially I did steadily accumulate some profit and it was very much a case of some small wins and small losing bets.

What was immediately apparent though was that it will always be just a matter of time before a big win is bagged.  Say I’d do four each way Lucky 15s in a day, it was very commonplace to get maybe a winner and a placed horse in two or three of them, or maybe even all four.  Certainly it wasn’t uncommon to have at least one horse in each Lucky 15 place, and often two, occasionally three.  Or two placed plus a winner, which gave a nice enough profit.  Surely, I started to think we just need to wait when we get two winners and a placed horse, or all placed, and that is when the bigger win will come.

And sure enough, last Friday, for the first time in a good old number of bets, I had all four horses finish in the frame in each of their respective races, with one of them winning to boot.  It wasn’t a huge win, but one that netted 16 points of profit in one fell swoop.  I’m sure there will be bigger days, but we might have to wait a while for one to come along.  Hopefully, when it does we will see a bit of London bus syndrome and another will quickly follow.

I guess the reason I’m enjoying the Tracker so much is you can literally see the value you’re getting in every horse you back.  My approach is to try to ensure that in each Lucky 15, I have one horse running at single figure odds, two between 10/1 and 16/1, and then one long shot at 18/1+.  This isn’t a rule set in stone, and I think the key to success with this tool will be the ability to show a little flexibility.  Time will tell.

Anyway, I’ve upped my stakes now and allocated the correct bank (always very important of course), and we’ll see where the next weeks take us.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 45pts, -21.938pts, roi -48.75%, roc -21.93%, High 0pts, DD -21.938pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 64.75pts, -24.505pts, roi -37.84%, roc -30.63%, High 0pts, DD -24.505pts, Max DD -24.505pts

Racing Service 1 (40): Staked 8.5pts, +2.71pts, roi 31.88%, roc 6.77%, High 2.71pts, DD -0pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (80): Staked 14pts, +18.893pts, roi 134.95%, roc 23.61%, High 18.893pts, DD 0pts, Max DD 0pts

Racing Totals: ROI -6.8%, ROC -2.8%

SPORTS: Sometimes it’s best when I say nothing at all.

Whatever happened to Ronan Keating?  Not really my sort of music, if I’m honest.  I’m more an Oasis, Stone Roses kinda guy.  I grew up in Manchester, had a pair of baggy jeans to prove it, back in the day.  To anyone else familiar with Manchester in the late 80s/early 90s, you’ll know what I mean when I say “Afflecks Palace” and give a wee wink and a knowing smile.

Anyway, I think it was Ronan who once sang about saying it best when saying nothing at all. And that’s how I feel about the sports services this week.  There just isn’t much to say, so I’m not going to.

More info in tomorrow’s post, when I give my initial thoughts on the Bookiebashing Racing Tracker.  See you then.

Sports Service 1 (30pt bank): Staked 17.5pts, +1.5pts, roi 8.57%, roc 5%, High 3.05pts, DD -1.55pts, Max DD -1.55pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 63.5pts, +5.936pts, roi 9.34%, roc 14.84%, High 5.936pts, DD -0pts, Max DD -4.061pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 9pts, +0.66pts, roi 7.33%, roc 1.32%, High 0.66pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 7.71%, ROC 5.89%