Month: February 2019

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Melting into the background

I can remember the time when I was first prevented from having a bet with an online bookie as if it was yesterday.  It was a real badge of honour, the betting equivalent to coming home safely from flying the last mission in the skies above enemy territory.  I’d made it.  I had the bookies running scared.  This time next year not only would I, like Del Boy, be a millionaire, but I’d also be a “face” (it didn’t concern me that it might prove be tricky to be a “face” online, but there you go).  I was young and foolish – forgive me.

Roll on more years than I care to count, and now of course when I get the email saying that the traders, in their infinite wisdom, had decided that my business is unwanted, it’s a real pain in the a*se.  Usable accounts have become a valuable commodity, and are to be nurtured and protected.

The recent SBC pieces from the bookie insider have made for fascinating reading.  I wish I’d had the insight they provide years ago!  Still, there’s no point worrying about things that can’t be changed and to be fair, I feel I have already been doing most (but not all) of the things suggested in the articles to stay under the bookie radar.

Really, most of the right things to do are common sense.  I never, unless it’s in one of the big races of the year, place bets the night before racing.  Doing so really is asking for trouble.  You may as well send a personal email to the Head of Trading asking them to close your account because you’re going to take advantage of ricks in the market when the bookie is at their most vulnerable.

I always split my stakes so that I never place more than £30 on one bet with one book, and whenever possible, I’ll try to limit the bet to a maximum £20.  Even if using three books to strike what is effectively one bet, the effort is worth it in the long run.

On a similar note, I’ve learnt not to take an outstanding price being offered by just one or two books.  Again, by doing so, tempting though it may be, you really are going to cause the alarm bells to ring loud and clear for the bookies.  Similarly, only betting at a consistent time on one sport has to stick out like a sore thumb.  More and more have I started placing small bets on random events and laying off on the exchanges to ensure a tiny loss.  If this makes betting patterns harder to spot, it’s got to be a good thing.

So look, use your common sense.  Don’t get greedy, and do what it takes to protect those accounts for as long as you possibly can.  Next week I’ll talk about how betting high volume/small amounts might be one way to go about things to a. generate a good profit, and b. keep your accounts healthy at the same time.

Performance from Monday 11th to Sunday 17th February

It was a strange week with not one bet struck over Monday and Tuesday as the effects of Equine Flu’ continued.  All back to normal on the Wednesday though, but it was as if the tipsters need time to find their stride again.  No noteworthy individual performances this week.

Portfolio Performance

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI -10.17%, ROC -1.55%.

‘Starter’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Racing Service 2, Northern Monkey): ROI -3.71%, ROC -0.69%.

‘Broxchange’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Golf Insider): ROI -6.32%, ROC -1.37%.

Individual Service Performance

The Accountant: Staked 11pts, -2.189pts, ROI -19.9%.

Racing Service 1: Staked 3pts, -1.375pts, ROI -45.83%.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 45.75pts, +0.64pts, ROI 1.39%.

Golf Insider: Staked 12pts, -1.5pts, ROI -12.5%.

MVS (Lite): Staked 16pts, -6.374pts, ROI -39.83%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 4.75pts, +2.178pts, ROI 45.85%.

Football Service 2: Staked 8.75pts, -0.019pts, ROI -0.21%.

Racing Service 2: Staked 6pts, -1.5pts, ROI -25%.

Racing Service 3: Staked 17pts, +1.85pts, ROI 10.88%.

A quiet week

Equine ‘flu is pretty nasty, from what I can gather.  Let’s face it, anyone who has suffered from the human form of ‘flu knows just how debilitating it can be.  I’m not talking about heavy colds, but full on, proper ‘flu.  I’ve only ever had it once, and that was over 20 years ago but boy, did it lay me low.  I remember literally not being able to get out of bed unaided and I lost a load of weight in just a few days.

Anyway, it’s the bloomin’ horses who got it this week, and I guess they’re not able to patch themselves up with a Lemsip and hot water bottle.  Fortunately the British Horseracing Authority have deemed the risk of a pandemic pretty small and have allowed racing to re-start, albeit under a very controlled environment.

At this time of year I suppose we could reasonably expect a prolonged spell of blank racing days due to bad weather.  Frozen tracks in February are not exactly unheard of, but this is the first major non-weather related disruption to the sport that I can recall since the Foot & Mouth epidemic that hit us back in 2001.  That caused Cheltenham to be cancelled – let’s not even go there, eh!?!

So all in all, as you can imagine, it’s been a pretty quiet week on the betting front, with our racing tipsters largely sitting at home twiddling their thumbs and wondering if they can gain an edge down the dogs at Hackney.  Meydan and the racing over in Ireland has produced some action, and well done to Racing Service 3, who had a stormer of a few days.  Winners at 7/2, 8/1, 4/1 and 15/2 have kept the gambling wolves from the betting door, an kept things ticking over despite the relative lack of action.

Portfolio Performance from Monday 4th to Sunday 10th February

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 14.93%, ROC 1.58%.

‘Starter’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Racing Service 2, Northern Monkey): ROI 3.57%, ROC 0.61%.

‘Broxchange’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Golf Insider): ROI 0.68%, ROC 0.15%.

Individual Service Performance

The Accountant: Staked 12pts, +0.633pts, ROI 5.27%.

Racing Service 1: Staked 2pts, -2pts, ROI -100%.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 51.45pts, +2.1pts, ROI 4.08%.

Golf Insider: Staked 12.4pts, -12.4pts, ROI -100%.

MVS (Lite): Staked 4pts, +3pts, ROI 75%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 4.75pts, +0.407pts, ROI 8.56%.

Football Service 2: Staked 4pts, -0.365pts, ROI -9.12%.

Racing Service 2: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts, ROI -100%.

Racing Service 3: Staked 14.5pts, +14.708pts, ROI 101.43%

Adapt or die.

I found this a fascinating read: The Inside Story of How One Bookmaker Restricts it’s Customers

For years we have pieced together some of the dos and don’ts when it comes to looking after our valuable bookmaker accounts.  The SBC have put together quite brilliant guides to keeping accounts viable for as long as possible, and various tipsters have proffered their advice on the matter too.  Time and experience has led to me being able to keep accounts open and usable for much longer than had previously been the case, but even so there was always a feeling that we were all making guesses as to exactly what would draw bookmaker’s attention to our betting activity and invite restrictions and closures, albeit highly educated guesses.

Finally though, we have a real ‘insider’s’ view and a detailed breakdown of how a typical bookmaking firm will go about assessing a customer’s betting activity and their stake factoring of that account.  The bookmaker would justify their process as ‘risk management’.  Having read this article I’d not use such politically correct language to describe their methods and approach!

The recurring thought as I read through the post however, was that as folk who bet with discipline and a strategy to make long term profit, we must adapt our betting as we go along, or die.  The information we now have enables us to really box clever when it comes to maximizing the lifespan of our online bookmaker accounts, but every boxer tires over time and no fight lasts forever.  We have to accept that ultimately, no matter how clever we are at looking after our accounts, there will come a time when we have restrictions imposed – that is a fact that we can’t ignore.

Yes, there are people who once one set of accounts are rendered useless open a new set – moving house was a godsend to me in this respect – but even then, and no matter how many times this process might be repeated, it is more savvy to look at other approaches that will allow out betting to continue ad infinitum.

I now use Exchanges more than I ever did.  The growth and development of Smarkets and Matchbook is significant and with their low rates of commission and regular ‘no’ or ‘reduced’ commission deals, these have become essential betting weapons to have in our armoury.  The traditional monopoly of Betfair is being eroded, and that can only be a good thing.  I’m finding I’m placing more and more bets on horses via Smarkets now, and being able to match officially advised odds more and more frequently.  I’ve also started to follow lay services which a year or so ago, I wouldn’t have done, simply because it involves laying.  It’s not my preferred method of betting, but like I say, adapt or die.

Look at betting on football more, perhaps, particularly into the more liquid markets, and again the exchanges are very useful here.  And as account restrictions do bite, then make sure to follow services that acknowledge the difficulties of getting on and make their betting advice as easy to follow as possible, something that Football Service 2 has done with tremendous success.

Your Comments & Questions Welcome

Mindful of the interest in the topic of restrictions – I welcome any comments or questions you might have on it and my portfolio, which I will do my best to answer or highlight in future posts. You can either comment on each post or email them to pete@smartbettingclub.com and he will forward them onto me.

 

Performance from Friday 1st to Sunday 3rd February

It’s been a decent start to the month, but only three days of betting is not enough for me to get carried away with, so at this point I’ll simply say well done for a good weekend to Racing Service 1, Football Lay Profits, Northern Monkey and Racing Service 3.

Portfolio Performance

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 24.55%, ROC 2.56%.

‘Starter’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Racing Service 2, Northern Monkey): ROI 13.7%, ROC 1.98%.

‘Broxchange’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Golf Insider): ROI 18.1%, ROC 2.97%.

Individual Service Performance

The Accountant: Staked 4pts, +0.482pts, ROI 12.05%.

Racing Service 1: Staked 8pts, +9.475pts, ROI 118.43%.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 44.57pts, +10.9pts, ROI 24.45%.

Golf Insider: Staked 15.2pts, -5.2pts, ROI -34.21%.

MVS (Lite): Staked 4pts, 0pts, ROI 0%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 2.5pts, +3pts, ROI 120%.

Football Service 2: Staked 3.5pts, +0.5pts, ROI 14.28%.

Racing Service 2: Staked 7.5pts, -3pts, ROI -40%.

Racing Service 3: Staked 8.5pts, +4.75pts, ROI 55.88%.

January 2019

When I was younger, I’d hear my parents, grandparents, older Aunts and Uncles all say at different times, “I don’t know where the years go”.  At that time, when on the first day of any school summer holiday the next six weeks stretched ahead of you like the Sahara Desert with no end in sight, you’d not quite feel the same way.  Now though?  Bloomin’ ‘eck!  Just where do the years go?!?  2019?  Really?

The first couple of weeks of the new year were like a betting dream.  Profits seemed to come tumbling in like making money from the bookies was the easiest thing in the world.  But then reality staged something of a fight back and although the next two weeks saw a fair chunk of that profit given back, the month still ended with a respectable amount of bank growth to show for our efforts.

Here are some thoughts…

I’m still getting used to The Accountant.  You know I liken joining up to follow a tipping service a little bit (just a little) like finding a new partner.  There’s the initial excitement as in the first stages of your relationship everything you find out about each other is new and exciting.  However it’s inevitable that as those first days and maybe weeks pass, you notice little quirks you didn’t expect in your new love which take a little getting used to and possibly small allowances need to be made.  You’re still happy together but just the first couple of questions arise over whether you truly are soul mates or not.  Before too long, there’s going to be the first argument, the first real test and either you get over it and forge on together stronger than ever, or the first cracks that ultimately will doom the relationship will appear.  If the latter, then over time things may possibly develop into perhaps the longest and strongest of marriages.  Or the final outcome is a messy divorce.  Personally I’m lucky enough to say I’ve somehow managed to find myself in the first category, but perhaps that was inevitable when before she moved in with me she met my demand of pledging lifetime allegiance to The Arsenal.

Anyway, I digress.  This month The Accountant, whilst still within the ‘finding out about each other’ phase, dropped his maximum price for a lay and formally introduced his ‘Short’ lay advice to co-exist with the ‘Long’ lay advice given up to this point.  So, I think the signs are promising, but he’s not going to be leaving a toothbrush at my place just yet.  For the record, from the start of this month, I’m going to be following the short-priced lays too.

Talking of laying, it’s been a really poor spell – the worst I remember – for Football Lay Profits.  In my so far limited experience of laying, I must say that losers can be particularly frustrating to take and I’ve realised that laying involves a completely different mindset to backing.  So, the first real bump in the road in my road to happiness with FLP, and let’s hope for a better February.

However, all of this is really insignificant to the real star of 2019 so far, Racing Service 2.  Now here is a love story to endure throughout all the ages.  If RS2 wants to play Romeo, then I’m more than happy to be his Juliet. Good grief – 51.22% bank growth through January alone!  Obviously, such form simply cannot last, but let’s enjoy it whilst it does.  The man is a Mozart (or perhaps a Shakespeare would be more apt) of tipping – a true genius.  And yes, I know that by writing this I’m dooming RS2 to a winnerless drought during which three consecutive tips reach 1.01 in running and yet fail to win, but you know what? I don’t care, because whilst tipping like he has been, RS2 has made sweet, sweet music that I shall never forget.

Right then.  The figures.

Portfolio Performance for January

‘Main’ portfolio: ROI 8.4%, ROC 4.5%.

‘Starter’ (Football Lay Profits, The Accountant, Racing Service 2, Northern Monkey): ROI 17.85%, ROC 9.65%.

‘Broxchange’ (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, The Accountant, Golf Insider): ROI -15.74%, ROC -7.61%.

Individual Service Performance

The Accountant: Staked 41pts, -0.007pts, ROI -0.01%, ROC -0.01%.

Racing Service 1: Staked 20pts, +8.9pts, ROI 44.5%, ROC 8.9%.

Football Service 1: Staked 8pts, -5.89pts, ROI -73.62%, ROC -11.78%.

Football Lay Profits: Staked 121.17pts, -19.14pts, ROI -15.79%, ROC -9.57%.

Golf Insider: Staked 50.8pts, -23.926pts, ROI -47.09%, ROC -2.99%.

MVS (Lite): Staked 43pts, -1.84pts, ROI -4.27%, ROC -2.07%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 18.25pts, -3.348pts, ROI -18.83%, ROC -4.29%.

Football Service 2: Staked 24.5pts, +0.392pts, ROI 1.6%, ROC 0.98%.

Racing Service 2: Staked 17pts, +29.271pts, ROI 172.18%, ROC 51.22%.

Racing Service 3: Staked 65.25pts, +2.713pts, ROI 8.4%, ROC 4.5%.