Interesting to read Northern Monkey’s April review (a month that has provided a small profit) in which he states: “I’ve mentioned a few times this month that April isn’t a month I expect to make any profit from and that is an expectation based on historical NMP performance”.
It’s interesting because it provokes thoughts of whether it might be best to follow certain tipsters at certain times and not at others. I’ve always had the mindset that if I’m following a tipster, I’m really following him, in that I don’t consider not backing anything they ever put up at any time. Having said that, I am very aware that Northern Monkey’s strengths lie in the main summer flat turf racing months (and Cheltenham). This is where historically he made the majority of his overall profit.
I guess it’s a psychological thing with me. FOMO (fear of missing out, for those not ‘down with the kids’ (!)) has largely guided my own policy of backing anything and everything a tipster puts up with the stake they tell me to back it with. So April not a great month for NMP…but what if he gives an 18/1 winner and supports it with a larger stake than average, and I don’t back it? This, from NMP…
” 2012 aside, which was a freak year skewed by having 1 pt EW on a 18/1 winner, Sugar Beet, April is usually a moderate month at best and has often been a losing month”.
Well, I’m sorry, but that 18/1 winner? At the time, not sure I’d have dealt to well with not backing it because I’d decided April wasn’t the time to be supporting NMP’s tips. Nope, for me, it’s all or nothing with a tipster.
FOMO…a terrible thing.
Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 156pts, +24.272pts, roi 15.55%, roc 24.27%, High: 24.622pts, CDD: -0.35pts, Max DD: -9pts.
Northern Monkey (100): Staked 184.875pts, +28.008pts, roi 15.14%, roc 28%, High: 36.837pts, CDD: -8.829pts, Max DD: -27.028pts
Precision Value (200): Staked 299pts, +3.779pts, roi 1.26%, roc 1.88%, High: 7.946pts, CDD: -4.167pts, Max DD: -24.834pts.
Racing Service 1 (50): Staked 29.5pts, +6.312pts, roi 21.39%, roc 12.62%, High: 12.312pts, CDD: -6pts, Max DD: -8pts.
TOTAL: roi 12.15%, roc 16.69%
*ROI – Return On investment, ROC – Return On Capital (ie. bank growth), CDD – Current Drawdown, Max DD – Maximum Drawdown