Let me put something to you. Do you think that the increasing availability and use of statistics for top level football is making it harder to make money from football betting?
I – for my sins – support the not-so-mighty-at-present Arsenal. I follow a few Arsenal related accounts on Twitter, and listen to two Arsenal-focused podcasts each week. Increasingly so, much of the discussion centres around what the statistics are telling us (currently that Arsenal are undoubtedly, crap!). We have Expected Goals (xG), Expected Goals Against (xGA), Expected Goal Difference and points approximations, number of successful passes into the penalty box/final third, interceptions, pass success rate, etc. etc. You get the gist.
Now either all this readily available and free to access information you might think, could well give the punter a potential edge. If you’re prepared to put the graft in to read and interpret the stats, perhaps angles can be found, edges created. Or…
Are the trading teams at the bookies now using all this info to price up matches more accurately and efficiently. Is it becoming harder than ever to make ongoing profit from betting on top tier football?
I honestly can’t decide which way it’s going.
This has to be a consideration moving forward though. It’s coming to the time of year when I like to sit down and think about the services to follow moving forward into the new year. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting we should all give up on betting on footie, far from it. I can’t help thinking that for the bettor who specializes and becomes an expert on a particular footballing niche, whether that be lower/non-league football or whatever, the future remains bright. But I do think it’s a question worth asking, and I’d love your thoughts…
Talking about thoughts and Comments on the Bet Diary, I was asked if I was going to replace the Morning Value Service with the new Precision Value offering. The answer is that yes, I am (have). And for simplicity, I’ll be backing the tips at all prices, not just those at up to 3/1 which the old service provided.
Despite a good start from Precision Value, the month as a whole has got off to a bit of a shocker.
Portfolio performance for November to date
Main portfolio: ROI -17.39%, ROC -3.13%.
‘Broxchange’ portfolio (Football Lay Profits, Football Service 1, Golf Insider): ROI -23.45%, ROC -5.07%
Individual Service Performance
Bet Alchemist: Staked 7pts, +4.1pts.
Racing Service 1: Staked 4pts, -1.9pts.
Football Lay Profits: Staked 68.9pts, -4.5pts.
Football Service 1: Staked 8pts, -5.341pts
Golf Insider: Staked 6pts, +3pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 6.5pts, +2pts.
Precision Value: Staked 27pts, +4.582pts.
Football Service 2: Staked 12pts, -1.927pts.
Racing Service 2: Staked 3.5pts, -3.5pts.
Racing Service 3: Staked 15.5pts, -10.1pts.