Timing is everything.

It occurred to me this week that timing really is everything.  Or at least it can be made to be, and if we do make it everything then we could end up making a big mistake.

My lad Joe started using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker three weeks ago.  Bear in mind that last week we had the Ryder Cup and therefore there was no Tracker, he’s essentially been betting on golf for two weeks.  With Luke List winning last night in a five way play-off (although his odds of a successful outcome were increased by the fact he had Scott Stallings in there too), he’s now had two outright winners and is running I believe, at an ROI of around the 60% mark. {Edit. 62.07%}

This is his first experience of sports betting.  How easy do you think he feels the game is at the moment?  He probably thinks my constant warnings of losing runs and drawdowns are just the crazed ramblings of a senile old git.  I know his ROI level is going to come down.  Anyone with any real experience of sports betting knows too.  But currently, he’s taking his winnings for granted as he’s made more money from one hour’s of “work” than he did from working a load of shifts at Sainsbury’s in the summer.  Well, nearly as much.

I, on the other hand, have been struggling a little bit with AI Football.  Not in the sense that I have lost faith in it already, despite the fact that my starting to follow the service has coincided with a bit of a rough patch (although nowhere near disastrous).  My experience tells me there’s nothing at all to worry about, that the smart play is to just carry on regardless and the profits will come.  But what if Joe’s first experience of betting was following AI Football and not the Golf Tracker?  How different would he be feeling, and how long would he persevere for?

Let me make it completely clear that AI Football is hardly showing anything that could even most tenuously be called a crisis.  I think sometimes when short priced bets fail then mentally it can be harder to adapt.  How many of us have given up on a service prematurely because our joining them has been poorly timed from an immediate results perspective?  I know I did, back in the day.

It’s all to do with timing, until you grow grizzled and gnarled and cynical.  At that point you treat the two consecutive weeks of golf winners as running hot and there’s going to be heck of a comedown just around the corner, and you treat the bad runs with a sigh and a  slight sense of gloom.

Think I’d rather be young and naive again…

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