Win or lose today at the US Open, here are 3 ways to make a long-term golf betting profit

It’s the final day of the US Open golf tournament today and several well tipped up players such as Harris English (66/1), Xander Schauffele (14/1) and Hideki Matsuyama (33/1) are all in with a fighting chance of success.

Yet whether these bets win or lose, golf betting continues to be extremely attractive for several reasons (ease of getting on, profitability, exchange usage) and if yet to do so, make sure you check out the special golf betting report now available to SBC members.

This 45-page special report includes 3 major golf tipster reviews including:

  1. Our review of Ben Coley’s free tips from the Sporting Life and how to follow on the exchanges. Ben has made 696 points profit since 2017 and is up 75% ROI already for 2020!
  2. Our in-depth review of the the New ‘Hall of Fame’ rated golf system ideal for everyone from the big staking professional to the small staking newcomer.
  3. Our review of another long-running golf service and the profits consistently made since 2014 for subscribers. At the last count, this stood at 30.65% ROI from 2143 bets at simple level stakes. SBC members can also gain access to an exclusive 33% discount on the cost of membership.

Access to this golf betting special report is available NOW with a Smart Betting Club membership. Sign-up now to gain instant access

See you on the inside!

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

An Interview With Golf Tipster, Ben Coley

Ben Coley is a golf tipster on fire with a 1-2 finish in the Portugal Masters at 18/1 and 70/1 on Sunday taking the profits from his tips this year alone up to 466 points at a ridiculously high 75% Return on Investment.

Best of all – Ben supplies all of these tips for free via his weekly Sporting Life columns and so I am delighted to share today an exclusive interview with him on his long-term golf betting success. Perfectly timed for those of you thinking of following him in during this weeks US Open and beyond.

If you enjoy this interview, you can read a full review of Ben’s tipping performance dating back to 2017, including our guidance on how best to follow his tips each week in the new Golf Betting Special Report now available to Smart Betting Club members.

Access to this golf report and our detailed reviews of the 2 other profitable golf tipsters inside it (read more on review#1 and review #2), can be gained the instant you join the Smart Betting Club

Ben Coley Interview

SBC: Hi Ben, thanks for agreeing to this interview! You are a very well-known name on the golf betting circuit these days, yet can you begin by outlining what attracted to you to betting on golf?

Ben: A love of golf, primarily. I started playing from a very young age and was handy for a while and it was always my favourite sport to watch on TV. The betting side was of course just as important; as the son of a betting shop manager I grew up settling football coupons at the dinner table on a Saturday night and I got a job at the head office of an independent firm when I was 16, again through the old man. It very much runs in the family.

SBC: Most people know about you from your Sporting Life tipping columns on golf betting, which continue to be very popular. How did this come about and when did you start writing and tipping for them?

Ben: I’ve been very, very lucky, and worked hard. After studying journalism at university (‘studying’ used loosely), I went back to work at the same place I’d been at since I was 16 and could easily have settled in for the long haul. Instead I took a chance on a low-paid radio job in Leeds and moved there at 23, and I’m still here at 34. The radio gig was in the same building as Sporting Life, who were under the same umbrella at the time, as was the digital side of Sky Sports. That’s how I met my first editor and Dave Tindall, who was working for Sky and Golf365 but writing betting previews for the Life, too. I’d been an avid reader of his for a long time and he was good enough to give me a chance.

I think it was my second or third preview when Bubba Watson somehow won a mad renewal of the Travelers at 50/1 and from that moment I became a regular contributor. I moved across to work full-time for Sporting Life not long after, and since 2015 I’ve been deputy editor there. I say that only to confirm that my job isn’t just golf tipping, thank heavens.

I think it was my second or third preview when Bubba Watson somehow won a mad renewal of the Travelers at 50/1 and from that moment I became a regular contributor

SBC: What is your normal column schedule for Sporting Life and what time and day can readers expect to find them published each week?

Ben: I begin writing my first preview at around 3pm every Monday and typically publish around 7pm, much of the research having been done the previous week. It varies as to whether I begin with the PGA or European Tour but generally the former now as for obvious reasons they reach a broader audience. Whichever preview comes next, that would usually be out by Tuesday lunchtime but sometimes other things get in the way. Mainly Zoom at the moment.

SBC: You preview and tip in both the PGA and European Tour events. Do you have any preference as per which tour offers the best value betting opportunities?

Ben: 100% the European Tour. I would say my best-known winners have still been the PGA Tour (Russell Henley at 300/1 in the Honda or Andrew Landry at 200/1 in Texas) but year after year it seems the standard increases and it’s very difficult to get the market leaders beat. Then you’ve got to establish whether it will be JT’s week, or Rory’s, or DeChambeau’s, or Rahm’s, and it’s difficult – especially when you’ve a general tendency to take on board more risk for a bigger price.

That’s why DJ winning the Travelers at 30/1 this year was so satisfying and why Koepka letting slip the St Jude at 33/1 was so infuriating. The European Tour is weaker, I would say those setting the odds know a little less about it, and there’s greater variety in terms of courses and conditions. All those things present opportunity, the one caveat being that players are far less reliable as a rule and Sundays can be fairly brutal if you are watching.

SBC: Onto the main reason for our interview – the excellent long-term profits you have achieved. Sporting Life have your record for the past 5 years at over 1000 points profit since 2016. Do you have any idea on other key metrics such as your Return on Investment, number of bets or the average amount staked per month or year?

Ben: Most months I stake 60-70 points, and on average it’d be around 750 per year on outright markets, meaning around 800 when you add major specials. Number of bets would be around five and a half per tournament on average, as I typically vary between five and six, sometimes seven or eight but occasionally only two or three. ROI-wise I hit between a 20 and 25% from 2015 onwards but I do appreciate it can be hard to get on at the advised prices sometimes, so all numbers have that asterisk for all that I’m proud of my record.

ROI-wise I hit between a 20 and 25% from 2015 onwards but I do appreciate it can be hard to get on at the advised prices sometimes

SBC: Furthermore – Sporting Life don’t list a record for you prior to 2016 but do highlight you were tipping between 2010 and 2015 and some of the winners you backed. Do you have any figures on overall profits, ROI etc… that you can share?

Ben: I’m afraid I don’t and it’s best I don’t get into the why – might swear and/or get in trouble. Suffice to say those records, both individually and for the entire site dating back as far as 2003, have been lost. I have some numbers but without any means of proving them I have to rely on 2016 onward, which I do think gives a fair indication of what to expect. Hopefully, 2020 will be my best year yet and I won’t have to bemoan the fact that 2012 and 2014 have been expunged.

SBC: Back to present day and you have been in superb form throughout this truncated golfing year with more than 450 points in the bag for 2020 already, yet in 2019 you lost 145 points. Do you feel this is ‘par for the course’ (pun intended) when golf betting and how patient do people need to be when golf betting and following your tips?

Ben: Yes, absolutely. I’ve probably improved in a couple of aspects, especially when it comes to the understanding and application of statistics. The PGA Tour has evolved rapidly in terms of breadth and quality of data and as a tipster you have to adjust, in the same way that a racing expert might now be incorporating sectionals and stride data.

It can throw you off, and I think that happened in 2019 as the European Tour also brought new numbers to the table – but the main difference between the two years can be described as rub of the green. I had a 100/1 play-off loser in December who ought to have won, and had he done so it basically takes care of everything; four or five tips won the week after I’d selected them, no end of close calls, and some potential season-changers just had difficult Sundays. Selections at 125/1, 66/1, 25/1 all leading with nine to play and not winning makes the world of difference and in 2020 things have just gone the other way. I’ve had 250/1 and 150/1 winners which went down the last, a 50/1 play-off winner who ought to have been beaten in regulation, and a couple of others who fell over the line somewhat.

Sami Valimaki winning in Oman at 250s was outrageous in the way the cards fell and last year I’d probably have been on Brandon Stone, who had been on my shortlist for the event and had his pocket picked on the very last hole. That’s golf betting in a nutshell.

Selections at 125/1, 66/1, 25/1 all leading with nine to play and not winning makes the world of difference and in 2020 things have just gone the other way

SBC: I can certainly relate to that as I am sure many readers can given how all-or-nothing betting on golf can be at times.

Given the above, I am interested to know how you cope with the frustrations that golf betting can bring. What advice do you have for punters following you in on dealing with the inevitable losing runs?

Ben: I take to twitter, basically. Otherwise I’ve been doing it long enough that I can generally get over things quickly, after a tweet storm or a WhatsApp or two, and a sleep. I would also say that golf is a bit different to most other sports for those reasons – even the strongest favourite on the PGA Tour now might have a 15% chance of actually winning.

I write long, detailed previews, and fortunately numbers remained strong when the tips weren’t going well. That means I can sit down the next Monday and type knowing it’s not for nothing, whatever happens. Relatedly I think in general, there aren’t many people who follow every point and every selection. They read the analysis, read someone else’s, combine it with their own ideas, and might take one or two of mine. And at risk of sounding glib, if ever there was a time to remember this job is a bit daft – like, its very existence sometimes seems amazing to me – it is now. So what if things don’t go well for a while. I know what I’m doing, I’m trying my best every single week, and I feel lucky to have a loyal readership who understand the nature of the sport.

There’s some pressure, but not stress, and I think that’s an important distinction. Plus it helps that my wife really couldn’t care less and my son is far too young to. It’s hard to justify dwelling on things for too long.

I’m trying my best every single week, and I feel lucky to have a loyal readership who understand the nature of the sport.

SBC: Some good advice there – it sounds like you have a good mindset and setup on how to cope with the stress and strains of golf betting, especially when as a tipster you have a lot of people following you in each week.

Given the fluctuations across a standard 4 day golf event, do you ever trade on your tips in-play? For example if you back a golfer at 100/1 before the tournament starts and he is leading going into day 4. Would you lay him at a short price and lock in profit or simply let it ride out?

Ben: I used to, but trading was never really my forte. Enhanced each-way terms in golf also mean it’s less important, at least at a recreational level, and I pride myself on a record which can’t legislate for that. I put up Justin Thomas at Muirfield Village this summer and he led by three with three left, went 1.04, and didn’t win. I know some of my followers got out in front, some backed him each-way, but my win-only recommendation goes down as a loser. Silly as it may sound to your readers – serious, dare I say semi-professional punters – the things I value most in my job are the quality of my work and the record it helps produce. What I win or lose is secondary and always has been. I get paid to do it and that’s my priority.

SBC: A good staking plan is important whatever you bet on – can you outline how yours work and how you judge how much to risk on any given player or tournament in total?

Ben: I’m going to sound like a politician but there are many people with much brighter things to say about bankroll management and there’s nothing much I can bring to that table. I started off following the template Dave Tindall set for the website a long time ago and while the total investment has nudged up a little, a reflection of playing for seven or eight rather than five or six places, not much has changed. I tend to go win-only at shorter than 16/1, two points each-way from around 16 to 33, one from 40 to 200 and maybe a half from there, but it does vary according to confidence levels and each-way terms. I know some traders will tell you every price is bang on these days but I think that’s a total nonsense and if there’s a player I like at 250/1 who I think should be closer to 100s, I’ll go the full point, and so on. Sorry, this is a bit of a non-answer.

SBC: Finally, given your popularity in golf betting circles, what advice do you have for those worried about the odds on the golfers you identify being forced downwards by the bookmakers? I ask this as I note at times the odds do come under pressure!

Ben: I get asked this a lot and appreciate it can be difficult, although bookmakers do tend to be a little short-termist with it – six months ago most of my tips held in the market but now they shorten immediately. It’s a shame they can do so without laying a bet but I understand that side of the industry and the job they have to do. In terms of advice, have as many accounts as you can, be prepared to walk into a betting shop, and also keep an eye on the exchanges on a Wednesday.

Once things have died down you’ll often see my selections drift out again and while not reflected on the high street as it were, if you are an exchange punter you’ll often get a considerably bigger price

Once things have died down you’ll often see my selections drift out again and while not reflected on the high street as it were, if you are an exchange punter you’ll often get a considerably bigger price, particularly if they overreact to the weather forecast which does happen a fair bit.

Read More With An SBC Membership

You can read the full feature on Ben Coley’s free tips including our guidance on how best to follow him in each week in the new SBC Golf Betting Special Report.

Inside this report you can also read about:

1. The golf tipster with a track record of profit dating back 7 years with a 30.65% ROI from 2143 bets. Easy to follow on Betfair and with a 33% discount available to SBC members only.

2. The new Hall of Fame rated golf strategy/system with a 35.04% ROI in real life profits over the past year. Will appeal to everyone from the big staking professional to the small staking newcomer.

Sign-up Now To Gain Instant Access!

Golf tipster review #2. Up 30.65% ROI over 7 years & suitable to follow on Betfair.

The 2nd tipster review from our new special golf betting report is out now and we have yet another extremely profitable golf tipster to share details on.

Over the course of this 4300 word review, we explore all aspects of just why we rate this tipster so highly and the profitable difference it can make.

This is a service that…

  • Has a track record of profit dating back 7 years with a 30.65% ROI from 2143 bets
  • Advises tips that can be easily placed with both bookmakers and/or with betting exchanges. Yes he is suitable to follow on Betfair.
  • Has enjoyed unbelievably good form recently with a 51.51% ROI in 2019 and 57.13% ROI so far in 2020!
  • Offers exclusive discounts to SBC members including 33% off the cost of joining for a full 12 months

Access to this new review and all parts of our forthcoming special golf report, including the new Hall of Fame golf tipster we also reviewed just 2 weeks ago is available NOW with a Smart Betting Club membership.

Sign-up now to gain instant access

See you on the inside!

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

If you have any questions on this post or a Smart Betting Club membership in general, you can contact me directly via pete@smartbettingclub.com. I respond to all emails as quickly as I can!

SBC Insight: Understanding your strike-rate & the losing runs that go with it – Essential punting advice

Without doubt one of the biggest barriers to making your betting a success is learning how to deal with the psychological challenges that it can bring – especially when it comes to the dreaded losing run.

We have all been on them – those runs where you can’t see where your next winner is coming from.

The type that see you constantly topping up your bookmaker account and the feeling you are hemorrhaging money.

It’s why 2 punters who start following the same tipster can often end up with very different results. Often because during a losing run, one of them quits in reaction to a short-term run of form.

There is no shame in this – after all the emotion of betting can be very hard to handle, especially when you are expecting to make a profit and yet you keep losing.

Yet there is a way to get through them – simply by having a better understanding of some fundamentals that underpin value betting such as your strike-rate.

Learning About Losing Runs

To help you understand more on this topic, I want to share with you below a tremendous article as published by Steve Jones of the CD Systems service. It serves to educate you on strike-rates and how they can guide you as per losing runs and what to expect.

For example, a tipster service with a 49% strike-rate has a 50/50 chance of hitting 10 losers on the bounce over a 650 bet period.

Most services hitting such a strike-rate will likely advise bets between say 11/10 and 11/8, so how likely are you to stay the course if you backed 10 losers in sequence at odds of 11/8?

Many people during such a sequence would throw in the towel, yet this is not always the wisest move.

This article is one I return to again and again, especially during the dark days of betting when I can’t see where my next winner is coming. Because no-one is immune to bad runs, yet how we handle and react to them is vitally important.

And despite what you might think – just because you pay for tips, it doesn’t mean they will lose less. The fundamentals of probability remain the same, yet if these tips are based on a ‘value betting strategy’ with an edge, long-term it will reap dividends.

My thanks to Steve for giving me permission to share this article and I hope you enjoy it. You can read more about Steve and his services at the CD Systems website.

For further insight – Steve also recommends spending 20 minutes or so at https://justflipacoin.com and recording the sequences generated by random even-money spins. The results will surprise many and would need to be fully understood by anyone seriously intending to embark on a lengthy series of short-priced bets.

Don’t Go Broke! Understanding Losing Runs

Reproduced with permission – see the original at http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/dont_go_broke!.htm

One of the quickest ways to disaster is to be ignorant about losing sequences. They can occur without warning at any time, and they can quickly devastate a betting bank if it is of insufficient size to absorb them.

First of all, how do you know what the length of these losing sequences is likely to be? Well actually, that is fairly easy to predict, provided you have an accurate idea of your strike rate.

Sequences are directly related to strike rate, and you can mathematically determine the likelihood of specific sequences appearing, provided you know what percentage of the bets in a series are going to win. You can then use this criteria to set up your betting bank.

My view is that the size of your opening bank should equal the longest losing sequence you could encounter during an extended series of bets, multiplied by your maximum stake.

To illustrate, I have produced the table below, which you can use to determine your staking strategy. Let’s say, for example, you estimate that your strike rate over a series of 600 bets will be around 40%.

Please note at this stage that there are no ‘good’ or ‘bad’ strike rates – they are all purely relative to the price range you decide to target – please refer to my article How Many Winners? in conjunction with this procedure (opens in a new window).

Use Your Strike-Rate To Determine Losing Runs

As can be seen from the table below, with a 40% strike rate you can expect to have a losing sequence of 10 somewhere in the series (there is a 75% chance of that happening). However, there is a 50% chance of your hitting a losing sequence of 12 and a 25% chance of a run of 14 losers. That sequence of 14 is less than likely to occur, but it will still happen, on average, once in every four series.

On the other side of the coin, you have a 75% chance of hitting at least one winning run of 6 during the series. A sequence of 7 is a 50:50 possibility and a successful run of 8 has a 25% chance of occurring. Those figures can be seen in the 60% row (take your strike rate away from 100 and look in the row for the difference in order to anticipate winning sequences).

Finally, with a less than 1% chance, you are likely to confront a losing sequence of 20 no more often than once in every hundred series. However, that is the figure you should use in constructing your betting bank. If you are to operate professionally that is what you must do.

Using the formula I mentioned earlier, you would multiply the longest losing sequence you could encounter during the series (in the above example that would be 20) by your maximum stake. If that is, say, 5 points, then your starting bank should be 100 points.

Losing Runs Happen To Everyone

Please don’t make the common mistake of thinking these sequences won’t happen to you. They are mathematically determined by your strike rate and will happen as often as they are entitled to, whether you like it or not. Nobody can avoid them, but the difference between a professional and an amateur is that the professional is fully prepared for them. When they do occur it certainly doesn’t mean that you are ‘out of form’ or doing anything wrong.

It is also recommended that you set aside a reserve bank which can be used to temporarily top up the main bank in extreme circumstances. For example, a downturn which is over and above any which had originally been catered for (perhaps the original strike rate calculation was based on insufficient data and needs amending).

Once you have accurately anticipated your strike rate, you will be able to use the table below to optimise your bank structure.

Provided the average price of your winners is sufficient for your strike rate, as explained in How Many Winners?, and your bank is set up in such a way as to absorb sequences, then you will never have a problem. You will be well on your way to securing a successful future in a professional manner.


Anticipation of Sequences – Table

Please note: The table below is based on a series of between 600 and 650 bets. A shorter series would be less likely to contain sequences as long as these and a longer series would be more likely.

 

Strike Rate

(%)

Anticipation of Sequences
Expected

(75% chance)

50:50

(50% chance)

Unlikely

(25% chance)

V. Unlikely

(<1% chance)

383105132235
46986106185
5597390153
6526478130
7465768113
8425161101
938475691
1035435182
1133404775
1230374469
1329344164
1427323860
1525303656
1624293453
1723273250
1822263047
1921252945
2020242842
2119232640
2218222539
2317212437
2417202335
2516192234
2615192133
2715182131
2814172030
2914171929
3013161928
3113161827
3212151726
3312151725
3412141624
3511141624
3611131523
3711131522
3810131521
3910121421
4010121420
419121320
429111319
439111319
449111218
458111218
468101217
478101117
488101116
498101116
50791115
51791015
52791015
53791014
54781014
5568914
5668913
5768913
5868913
5968912
6067812
6157812
6257811
6357811
6457811
6557711
6656710
6756710
6856710
6946710
704679
714669
724669
734569
744568
754568
764568
773568
783558
793557
803557
813457
823457
833457
843456
853446
863446
872446
882446
892445
902345

 

I hope you enjoyed this article – if you have any feedback on it, please do share your thoughts with me via email – pete@smartbettingclub.com

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder