SBC Insight: Understanding your betting strike-rate & the losing runs that go with it

Those of you who have listened to the new podcast interview I recorded with Gambling.com will have noticed how throughout this chat, I regularly reference the importance of tackling and understanding the psychological challenges of betting in order to make your punting a success.

This is because I believe the ability to objectively analyse your betting and remove emotion from the equation can be the difference between winning and losing long-term.

It is why 2 punters who start following the same tipster can often end up with very different results. Often it is because during a losing run, one of them quits and usually in reaction to a short-term run of form.

There is no shame in this – after all the emotion of betting can be very hard to handle, especially when you are expecting to make a profit.

Psychologically, the pain of backing a loser is twice the joy you experience from backing a winner.

As I state on the podcast – just because you pay for tips, it doesn’t mean they will lose less. The fundamentals of probability remain the same, yet if these tips are based on a ‘value betting strategy’ with an edge, long-term it will reap dividends.

So to help you understand more on this topic, I want to share with you a tremendous article as published by Steve Jones of the CD Systems service. It serves to educate you on strike-rates and how they can guide you as per losing runs and what to expect.

For example, a service with a 49% strike-rate has a 50/50 chance of hitting 10 losers on the bounce over a 650 bet period.

Most services hitting such a strike-rate will likely advise bets between say 11/10 and 11/8, so how likely are you to stay the course if you backed 10 losers in sequence at those odds?

All told, it’s a fantastic and very informative article and one I return to again and again, especially during bad runs and when I can’t see where my next winner is coming. As ever the importance of having the right size betting bank is also paramount.

My thanks to Steve for giving me permission to share it. You can read more about Steve and his services at the CD Systems website.

For further insight – Steve also recommends spending 20 minutes or so at https://justflipacoin.com and recording the sequences generated by random even-money spins. The results will surprise many and would need to be fully understood by anyone seriously intending to embark on a lengthy series of short-priced bets.

Don’t Go Broke! Understanding Losing Runs

Reproduced with permission – see the original at http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/dont_go_broke!.htm

One of the quickest ways to disaster is to be ignorant about losing sequences. They can occur without warning at any time, and they can quickly devastate a betting bank if it is of insufficient size to absorb them.

First of all, how do you know what the length of these losing sequences is likely to be? Well actually, that is fairly easy to predict, provided you have an accurate idea of your strike rate.

Sequences are directly related to strike rate, and you can mathematically determine the likelihood of specific sequences appearing, provided you know what percentage of the bets in a series are going to win. You can then use this criteria to set up your betting bank.

My view is that the size of your opening bank should equal the longest losing sequence you could encounter during an extended series of bets, multiplied by your maximum stake.

To illustrate, I have produced the table below, which you can use to determine your staking strategy. Let’s say, for example, you estimate that your strike rate over a series of 600 bets will be around 40%.

Please note at this stage that there are no ‘good’ or ‘bad’ strike rates – they are all purely relative to the price range you decide to target – please refer to my article How Many Winners? in conjunction with this procedure (opens in a new window).

Use Your Strike-Rate To Determine Losing Runs

As can be seen from the table below, with a 40% strike rate you can expect to have a losing sequence of 10 somewhere in the series (there is a 75% chance of that happening). However, there is a 50% chance of your hitting a losing sequence of 12 and a 25% chance of a run of 14 losers. That sequence of 14 is less than likely to occur, but it will still happen, on average, once in every four series.

On the other side of the coin, you have a 75% chance of hitting at least one winning run of 6 during the series. A sequence of 7 is a 50:50 possibility and a successful run of 8 has a 25% chance of occurring. Those figures can be seen in the 60% row (take your strike rate away from 100 and look in the row for the difference in order to anticipate winning sequences).

Finally, with a less than 1% chance, you are likely to confront a losing sequence of 20 no more often than once in every hundred series. However, that is the figure you should use in constructing your betting bank. If you are to operate professionally that is what you must do.

Using the formula I mentioned earlier, you would multiply the longest losing sequence you could encounter during the series (in the above example that would be 20) by your maximum stake. If that is, say, 5 points, then your starting bank should be 100 points.

Losing Runs Happen To Everyone

Please don’t make the common mistake of thinking these sequences won’t happen to you. They are mathematically determined by your strike rate and will happen as often as they are entitled to, whether you like it or not. Nobody can avoid them, but the difference between a professional and an amateur is that the professional is fully prepared for them. When they do occur it certainly doesn’t mean that you are ‘out of form’ or doing anything wrong.

It is also recommended that you set aside a reserve bank which can be used to temporarily top up the main bank in extreme circumstances. For example, a downturn which is over and above any which had originally been catered for (perhaps the original strike rate calculation was based on insufficient data and needs amending).

Once you have accurately anticipated your strike rate, you will be able to use the table below to optimise your bank structure.

Provided the average price of your winners is sufficient for your strike rate, as explained in How Many Winners?, and your bank is set up in such a way as to absorb sequences, then you will never have a problem. You will be well on your way to securing a successful future in a professional manner.


Anticipation of Sequences – Table

Please note: The table below is based on a series of between 600 and 650 bets. A shorter series would be less likely to contain sequences as long as these and a longer series would be more likely.

 

Strike Rate

(%)

Anticipation of Sequences
Expected

(75% chance)

50:50

(50% chance)

Unlikely

(25% chance)

V. Unlikely

(<1% chance)

3 83 105 132 235
4 69 86 106 185
5 59 73 90 153
6 52 64 78 130
7 46 57 68 113
8 42 51 61 101
9 38 47 56 91
10 35 43 51 82
11 33 40 47 75
12 30 37 44 69
13 29 34 41 64
14 27 32 38 60
15 25 30 36 56
16 24 29 34 53
17 23 27 32 50
18 22 26 30 47
19 21 25 29 45
20 20 24 28 42
21 19 23 26 40
22 18 22 25 39
23 17 21 24 37
24 17 20 23 35
25 16 19 22 34
26 15 19 21 33
27 15 18 21 31
28 14 17 20 30
29 14 17 19 29
30 13 16 19 28
31 13 16 18 27
32 12 15 17 26
33 12 15 17 25
34 12 14 16 24
35 11 14 16 24
36 11 13 15 23
37 11 13 15 22
38 10 13 15 21
39 10 12 14 21
40 10 12 14 20
41 9 12 13 20
42 9 11 13 19
43 9 11 13 19
44 9 11 12 18
45 8 11 12 18
46 8 10 12 17
47 8 10 11 17
48 8 10 11 16
49 8 10 11 16
50 7 9 11 15
51 7 9 10 15
52 7 9 10 15
53 7 9 10 14
54 7 8 10 14
55 6 8 9 14
56 6 8 9 13
57 6 8 9 13
58 6 8 9 13
59 6 8 9 12
60 6 7 8 12
61 5 7 8 12
62 5 7 8 11
63 5 7 8 11
64 5 7 8 11
65 5 7 7 11
66 5 6 7 10
67 5 6 7 10
68 5 6 7 10
69 4 6 7 10
70 4 6 7 9
71 4 6 6 9
72 4 6 6 9
73 4 5 6 9
74 4 5 6 8
75 4 5 6 8
76 4 5 6 8
77 3 5 6 8
78 3 5 5 8
79 3 5 5 7
80 3 5 5 7
81 3 4 5 7
82 3 4 5 7
83 3 4 5 7
84 3 4 5 6
85 3 4 4 6
86 3 4 4 6
87 2 4 4 6
88 2 4 4 6
89 2 4 4 5
90 2 3 4 5

 

I hope you enjoyed this article – if you have any feedback on it, please do share your thoughts with me via email – pete@smartbettingclub.com

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

1 winner from 41 bets – Why you should follow this tipster

A Bookies Nightmare – that’s the theme of our latest Tipster Profit Report focusing exclusively on several very profitable Horse Racing Tipsters that continue to ride a wave of success.

Yet to balance it out today, and with this recent article on Value Betting firmly in my thoughts, I also wanted to outline a couple of reality checks on life following a racing tipster.

Not a reality check in the form of a worry these top rated experts don’t know their stuff. Because they do – the profits they make are real.

But a reality check in terms of what to expect when following a racing tipster

And the very strong reality that even the best betting experts suffer a losing run.

Because experience tells me that when a punter understands this – it becomes so much easier to follow tipsters and to avoid the one thing that catches most unwary punters out – quitting a tipster at exactly the wrong time.

Handling Losses A Rite of Passage For Any Tipster

One of the biggest warning signs I look for when observing a tipster is if they have never had a losing run of some kind.

In my experience, even the very best experts have losing months.

So if I see a racing tipster in business for 30 months, yet every single month has been profitable – well it sets alarm bells that all is not what it seems.

I wonder “Are these results legitimate?” and often when you dig deeper, they aren’t.

Simply because to go 30 months without making a loss in at least a few of them is unrealistic and unprobable.

It’s important to recognise that just because you pay to follow a tipster – this does not mean that they will not suffer occasional losing runs.

They will and its important to understand this.

Let me show you more with a couple of high-profile examples…

 

1 Winner In 37 Tips From This ‘Expert’

Firstly, lets use focus on ‘Tipster X’ – which is a very long-running racing service with a major edge.

This tipster has made 3669 points profit @ 12.4% ROI over more than 15,000 bets since 2014.

He knows how to make a profit betting and its been a ‘Hall of Fame’ rated service for several years now.

In our Racing Tipster Profit Report, we reported back on his latest progress since our last update, which saw 138 points profit made @ 26.89% ROI from 138 bets between May and August 2019.

A very nice profit indeed.

Yet, that isn’t the full story as within those 138 bets, there was plenty of ups and downs along the way.

Including a run from the 20th July of 38 bets and just 1 winner, during which this tipster lost 66.88 points.

That is a strike-rate of just 2.6%.

Fancy paying a tipster for that!?

Because had you joined on the 20th July or at some point during those 38 bets, you would have every right to question what took place.

Why was this top-rated tipster giving nothing but losers? After all, SBC rate him in their Hall of Fame and you have spent money to join him!

The reality is that this run of 38 losers was just randomness at play and as long as sticking firm, the rewards would flow as indeed they did.

Of the very next 83 bets advised since this run of losers, the service has made a 143.77 point profit.

Making back the 66.68 points lost and adding another 77.09 points profit on top!

This short-term run of losers was over and in some style and had you quit at the wrong time then you would be kicking yourself right now!

1 Winner in 41 From This 2nd ‘Expert’

To highlight how often this kind of thing happens, another highly rated expert we recommend – lets call him Tipster Y also had a similar bad run of form in August 2019.

During one period, he advised 41 bets and found just 1 winner, losing 22.24 points.

That is a strike-rate of just 2.5%.

Imagine paying for that kind of tipping advice!

Yet, despite this loss, over the 4 month period we covered between May and September, he actually made a total profit of 17.61 points @ 16% ROI from 199 bets.

And when you look back to the first 4 months of the year (Jan to April) he also made 41.04 points @ 53.78% ROI from 138 bets.

So the year is very nicely in profit despite this run of 1 winner from 41 at one point in time.

In total, 2019 sits up 58.65 points profit @ 31.36% ROI from 337 bets

Which once again goes to illustrate the need for patience, even with the best experts.

Have A High Odds / Low Strike-Rate Mentality

One thing both Tipster X and Tipster Y have is a focus on bigger price selections.

During their losing runs, the approximate average odds of a tip put forward by Tipster X was 11/1 and Tipster Y 17/2.

When you are backing at higher odds like this, your strike-rate will always be lower and there will be times when it gets really low as we saw with 1 in 38 and 1 in 41 above.

This is something I will be exploring in more detail in a forthcoming article on strike-rates and what to expect, but for now do be aware that the higher the strike-rate, the greater the likelihood of a losing run.

Whatever You Do – Don’t Quit At The Wrong Time!

I wanted to pen this article today not to scare you from using tipsters, but to just help provide some context on the reality of what to expect at times.

Betting professionally is never PROFIT, PROFIT, PROFIT – there will always be challenging times, yet with both the examples of Tipster X and Y above, you can be reassured that they know how to help you win as they have between them over 20 years of doing exactly that.

What I do want to encourage is the simple notion of having a longer-term and more patient mindset and to disabuse the idea that simply because you pay for tips, you will no longer have a bad run.

I do at times come across some punters unaware of this fact and they are likely the type who will have quit Tipster X or Tipster Y at some point during the losing runs I outlined above.

Which of course is exactly the worst thing you can do as significant profits were just around the corner.

Discover More With SBC

If you enjoyed this article and want to know more about the Smart Betting Club’s work reviewing and rating tipsters, you can read more on this at our Tipster Review Process section.

As that outlines, whether it be a horse racing, football, baseball, golf or tennis tipster under the review microscope – we leave no stone unturned in our quest to examine what is on offer and we focus very much on long-term profits.

Not just what a tipster made just last week or in August, but several years and often thousands of thousands of past bets.

Giving re-assurance that when we say a tipster is good, it really is.

If you like what you read – then you can join the Smart Betting Club at our lowest ever prices for 2019 and all with a money-back guarantee to boot.

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Founder

How To Cope When Your Bets Lose | Handling Losing Runs

In my email last week, I touched upon the pain of losing bets, a topic that seems to have spoken to many of you judged by my mailbox over the last 7 days.

Most betting sites or tipsters won’t tackle this subject (for obvious reasons) yet it seems plenty of you are looking for answers on this subject.

Whether it be learning how to stay on track during a losing run, dealing with how losing bets can affect your mood or simply a desire to help you cope better during times of betting adversity – I hope my email today can help provide some assistance.

When it comes to handing losing, it is all part of what I term the ‘battle of the betting mind’

And it is this ‘battle’ that I have seen make the difference between success and failure for many a punter.

Yes, you might be following a profitable tipster, but if I gave 25 random people access to the same tipster and the same setup, I would likely get 25 different sets of results.

The profit and loss for each of the 25 will vary depending on whether they followed the tipster properly in terms of placing every bet, staking consistently, taking the right odds with the right bookmaker and of course how they handle losing bets…

In 2016, I made GBP 38,000 on horse racing “…

Although I’ve changed some of the tipsters I follow, there’s a core group whom I rely on. In 2016, I managed to make GBP 38,000 on horse racing.”    
As written by ‘K’ – An SBC member for several years

Click here to read more from ‘K’ on his SBC experience

How To Handle Losing Bets – 5 Tips

Fully aware of the challenges many punters face during this ‘battle of the betting mind’, I commissioned a special 54-page Betting Psychology Report, entitled How to get the Betting X-Factor to tackle it in greater detail.

Authored by betting psychology expert, Jeff Smith, his report serves to unravel what lies behind successful sports betting and ultimately help you adopt the mindset of a professional gambler.

Because after all, finding a good tipster is the easiest part (many of our Hall of Fame tipsters tick all the right boxes) but adopting the right mindset requires expert guidance.

For example, one section is dedicated to how ‘thinking in probabilities’ can really help us cope with losing bets and puts forward 5 tips to improve our betting mind.

I have summarised them as follows:

  1. Always believe that anything can happen: Never bet your house on something because you believe something is guaranteed – Who would have thought that New England Patriots would win the Superbowl when 28-3 down!
  2. Understand that you don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money: You take a position on something uncertain like the result of football match, but you can’t control the outcome.
  3. Keep in mind that there is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. Even a coin flipped 10 times could come up heads every time!
  4. Remember an edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing over another. Just because you backed a horse at 6/1 when it should be 4/1 doesn’t mean it will win! It’s still a 4/1 shot. It will win 1 in every 4 races on average.
  5. Finally, accept that every moment in betting is unique. You’re never ‘due a winner’ and just because you nailed your football bets last weekend doesn’t mean you do it again this weekend. If you backed Man Utd to win last week, it will have no bearing on whether your next bet on Man Utd will win. They are 2 completely separate events.

Mindset of a Pro Gambler

4 Step Success Formula

Inside the report, Jeff also puts forward his own simple 4-step success formula when betting, which he outlines as follows:

Strategy

Broken down into each part it makes perfect sense.

Get the winning strategy, stake correctly, stick to your budget and as long as YOU can handle the ups and downs of betting, then you will enjoy positive results.

Here is how the Smart Betting Club is setup to help you do exactly this:

  1. Strategy: We track 55+ of the best tipsters and constantly review new ones to put forward the best experts for you to follow. Finding the right tipster is the easy part!
  2. Money Management: Not only do we reveal the best tipsters, we also show you how to follow them correctly with our betting bank recommendations. Discover how much you can safely stake on each tipster to maximise profits and minimise risk.
  3. Capital: We all have different betting budgets, but we can help you whatever your starting point – whether it be following free tipsters (such as the 4 supplied to you as an SBC member) or those that charge a little more. The key point is that any tipster you do follow offers value for money.
  4. You: The final ingredient is how you pull it all together and win the battle of the betting mind. Reports like the Betting X-Factor by Jeff or our Pro Gambler Blueprint will help you on this front.

 

“Becoming A Better Punter”

“The Smart Betting Club helps you to become a better punter and simply make more money betting. My members have the numbers to prove it. 
Samuel – Bettin.gs

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Win Your Betting Battle!

Our goal here at SBC is a simple one – to help you make money betting, which is why it’s so important to me to help as many of you as possible when it comes to this topic.

I don’t want to shy away from the difficult challenges like losing bets as the chances are – you will lose more bets than you win over your betting lifetime.

If you are keen to understand more than do check out Jeff’s Betting Factor report – here are some of the other insights he also reveals within it:

  • How to achieve continuous marginal gains in sports betting.
  • Key questions to ask yourself as you bet
  • How to build your betting investment plan.
  • Money management – stake size and psychology.
  • The power of beliefs.
  • How to remove limiting beliefs.
  • How to think in terms of probability.
  • How to develop yourself for betting success.

Access to Jeff’s Betting X Factor Magazine is available the instant you become a Smart Betting Club member

What’s more, you can currently save £35 on the cost of subscription so don’t delay, sign-up here right now and let us help you get started betting better right away!

See you on the inside.

Peter Ling
SBC Editor

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