SBC Issue 120: Nigel Seeley’s Premier Sports Plays reviewed, Betmarkets & how to get better prices on Betfair

The very latest SBC Magazine (Issue 120) has just been released and is available for immediate download to all Smart Betting Club members.

It’s a jam-packed issue containing 3 key articles that can help make a massive difference to your betting as follows:

  1. Our detailed exploration of the new Betmarkets.io platform making a huge splash in the tipster world. Connecting tipsters with punters with automatic bet placement, as an SBC member you can enjoy a 2% deposit bonus
  2. An in-depth review of the Premier Sports Plays tipping service from renowned bettor and former odds compiler, Nigel Seeley. He has built up quite the following over the past couple of years and we explore all aspects of his football tipping output. Also includes a 25% discount on the cost of his service – exclusive to SBC members.
  3. The latest SBC Insight article exploring betting sequences and just how you can get better prices by timing your horse racing bet placement on Betfair. It outlines a simple strategy based on the odds of any horse you want to take, which can ensure you get better odds either in the live Betfair market or at Betfair SP.

Access to this latest SBC Magazine and our entire back catalogue (119 issues strong!) is available NOW with a Smart Betting Club membership. Sign-up now to gain instant access

See you on the inside!

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

 

 

 

The recommended tipster with 26 losers in a row – understanding sequences & the maths that underpin value betting

Be honest with yourself. How likely are you to stick with a tipster, no matter how good their reputation, if they put up 26 losing bets in a row?

Chances are that most people, especially if paying for tips would throw in the towel long before they placed the 27th bet.

Yet, that is exactly the situation that unfolded with the SBC Hall of Fame service, the Daily Bargain in October when the first 26 bets of the month all lost.

(A Hall of Fame service is simply one of those we fully advocate to SBC members after several years of monitoring, thousands of results and deep analysis of the tipster in question)

As Steve who oversees the Daily Bargain puts up 1 bet a day, that was 26 days of consecutive losers, which will no doubt have seen some posing questions such as why have we at SBC recommended this service in the first place?

It must be some kind of mistake or perhaps even a scam as surely no subscription charging tipster could ever put up 26 losers in a row, could they?

Well, yes they can and in today’s article I am going to explain why as part of a very important discussion on mathematical sequences I would encourage you all to read.

Why Understanding Sequences Is Vital When Betting

Many losing bettors are fooled by their lack of understanding of sequences in relation to the odds and strike-rate of the tipster they follow.

A run of 26 losers in a row, whilst sounding unlikely, is in fact entirely reasonable to expect given the strike-rate of the Daily Bargain.

The historical strike-rate for this service over 2500 bets since 2012 has sat at 14.89%. Just under 1 in 7 bets win.

When we run this past the wonderful ‘Don’t Go Broke’ article I regularly reference from the Daily Bargain website itself, a tipster with a 15% strike-rate is rated to have as follows:

  • A 75% chance of 25 losers in sequence
  • A 50% chance of 30 losers in sequence
  • A 25% chance of 36 losers in sequence

So as unlikely as it sounds a run of 26 losers in sequence is reasonably likely to happen over a large enough sample size.

The Turnaround…

The above is important as it gets to the heart of a flawed viewpoint that many new punters wrongly believe – that if you pay for tips, you should win more often.

The reality is that you will continue to win just as often as the strike-rate of the tipster dictates. If the tipster wins 15% of the time, you will still win 15% of the time long-term.

Over the course of a short-term period, you will always see fluctuations in that – just as we saw in the first 26 bets of October for the Daily Bargain when it hit a 0% strike-rate.

Yet, what I haven’t yet discussed in this article is what happened between the 29th October and the 2nd November as you might have guessed by now…things changed!

Each of the 5 bets advised during this period by the Daily Bargain all won to make back the losses incurred in the first 26 bets of October and add plenty of profit on top.

To simple 1 point stakes, a deficit of -26 points had risen to a profit of +17.67 points.

A swing of 43.67 points in your favour.

What a turnaround and reward for those following during the fallow days of October for their patience. The losing run had been easily absorbed.

Taking as a whole, over the course of the 31 bets between the 1st October and 2nd November, this saw 31 bets advised, with 5 bets winning.

Which equates to…you guessed it a 16.12% strike-rate of success.

Just a smidgen above what the service has achieved long-term since 2012.

It is also worth pointing out here that during those 26 bets in October without a winner, 6 of them placed, finishing 2nd or 3rd at odds of 20/1, 10/1, 7/1, 7/1, 13/2, 11/2. So, it is not as if they all ran badly – sometimes it’s just a series of near misses that go against you, during a bad run. You must remain patient for the rewards to come your way.

I should also make clear that in the 10 days since the 2nd November and this article being written, the Daily Bargain has also enjoyed three more big winners at 8/1, 12/1 and 9/2 so the rewards for being patient in October are now being reaped big time.

The Same Maths Apply Whether Paying For Tips or Not

The truth is that even if paying for a quality tipster service like the Daily Bargain, there is no getting away from the maths that underpin betting.

So don’t be fooled into the notion that if paying for tips, they will lose less.

They will lose the same amount as their long-term strike-rate dictates. In the Daily Bargain’s case – 15% of the time, they will win. 85% of the time they will lose.

What will change is the profits you make based on the odds you place the bets at.

Because as long as taking a value price, such as the Daily Bargain advocates, then over the course of time, you will end up in profit.

Yet these profits never come in a straight line. You might get 26 losers in a row; you might get 5 winners in a row.

The sequences will change. At times they will frustrate you and at others they will delight you. You simply have to be patient and not fall into the trap that gets so many punters who don’t understand the simple mathematics behind sequences.

The trick is not to micro-manage and live out your results day-to-day or week-to-week.

If you do so, you might fall into the trap of quitting too soon. Like any punters that stopped following the Daily Bargain after the 26th loser in October…

The Importance Of A Betting Bank

To help you cope with sequences, you also need a betting bank to cover yourself when bad runs hit.

This is why we recommend a 100 points bank for the Daily Bargain, because even if you joined on the 1st October, you would have only lost 26% of your bank at that point.

Come the 2nd November, you would have been up 17.67 points or 17.67% of your bank.

The betting bank is there to help keep your staking in check when a bad run hits, because all bettors, no matter how experienced do feel the pain of losing to some degree.

Over time and once you have ridden this storm a few times, it gets easier to handle, but if new to betting in this way and if you struggle to keep focus when in a losing spree, a betting bank is absolutely crucial.

Don’t forget either that each individual bet you place is almost always totally disconnected from the last bet you placed (assuming placed on different games/races)

So just because your last bet won or lost, it makes it no likelier that your next bet will do the same.

The horse running in the 3.10 at Kempton you have just backed has no idea that the horse you backed yesterday in the 2.20 at Wolverhampton lost.

It’s a completely different race with different horses, jockeys and conditions entirely. So try not to think about runs of ‘good form’ or ‘bad form’ and instead focus on the bigger picture.

That alongside a greater understanding of the betting strike-rate can make a world of difference to your betting.

And as ever you also need patience. Patience in abundance at times, but for those of you able to apply this to your betting – the rewards are there with the right tipsters.

Discover More On Top Tipsters & How To Win With SBC

If you are interested in learning more about both the top tipsters we recommend AND what it takes to win long-term as a bettor, then you might like to consider a Smart Betting Club membership.

Not only do we guide you as to the best tipsters to follow like the Daily Bargain, via our Hall of Fame ratings and regular Tipster Profit Reports.

But we also do our best to explain, educate and inform on how to setup like a professional and handle the psychological swings of betting.

For every tipster we review and recommend we give ratings and scores on things like risk and profitability as well as guidance on the size betting bank you need if following.

You can also read the Pro Gambler Blueprint guide (65 page PDF) and our special 54-page Betting Psychology Guide, entitled ‘How to get the Betting X-Factor‘ as an SBC member.

Furthermore, you can also save on quality tipsters such as the Daily Bargain thanks to the discounts we offer SBC members. For example, you can enjoy an extra month free of charge to the Daily Bargain as an SBC member if subscribing to them.

Best of all you can sign-up today and enjoy a full money back guarantee if not satisfied by what we offer. Membership is available from as little as £29.99 per quarter.

Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club and gain instant access

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

If you have any questions on this article or a Smart Betting Club membership in general, you can contact me directly via pete@smartbettingclub.com. I respond to all emails as quickly as I can!

SBC’s extensive review & podcast on the new Betmarkets game-changer tipster platform

Friday saw the release of one of the most hotly-anticipated reviews SBC have ever released – our exploration of the new Betmarkets.io platform making a huge splash in the tipster world.

The interest is easy to understand as Betmarkets allows you the opportunity to automate the following of expert tipsters and have all their advised bets placed on your behalf.

Styled as the e-toro of the betting world, the Betmarkets platform removes the need for you to do anything but choose the tipsters you wish to follow and how much to have risked on each bet they put forward.

Already they have more than 30 quality tipsters onboard and to gauge the service, the SBC team have been actively using Betmarkets since May, during which time more than 2200 trades have been placed on our behalf and a profit has been made.

In this major review, we explore all aspects of the Betmarkets platform from its setup and licensing through to the tipsters they have onboard and exactly how profits are made and distributed. Plus of course the fees for usage, licensing and safety/security of money deposited.

SBC members can also enjoy a special 2% credit on their first deposit with Betmarkets. So if you deposit €2000, you will get €40 back in credit set against any future fees. This is an exclusive offer available ONLY to Smart Betting Club members and part of the benefits of our service.

SBC Podcast Interview With Betmarkets

To coincide with the release of the official review, SBC Editor, Pete also interviewed the Betmarkets CEO, Afonso Vieira in the very latest SBC Podcast.

You can download and listen to this for free via all the usual major podcast directories including SpotifyGoogle & Tune-in. It will also shortly appear on Apple Podcasts.

Explore The SBC Review & Access The 2% Credit

You can read our full exploration of the Betmarkets service and discover how you can enjoy a 2% credit on deposits with a Smart Betting Club membership.

Not only can you read our detailed Betmarkets guide, but also access the ENTIRE Smart Betting Club service including all our SBC Magazines, Tipster Profit Reports, Free Tipsters, Pro Betting Guides & more.

This includes access to our full 15 year back catalogue and no quibble money back guarantee.

Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club and gain instant access

 

Lies, damned lies and statistics in the tipster world

In the crazy world we live in currently, the collection and analysis of data is never far from the headlines.

Whether it be examining the polls for the Presidential Election or the spread of Covid-19 and the need for lockdowns, the ability to interpret complex data and make informed decisions from it is key.

As we have seen from the different approaches to Covid-19 across the world, many ‘experts’, especially the uninformed political variety, continue to interpret data incorrectly and make often well-meaning, yet flawed decisions.

Yet, what you may ask – does that have to do with betting?

The reality is that whatever field you work in, interpreting data and its outputs is vitally important, including SBC’s world of tipster reviews and recommendations.

Certainly nowhere near as important as working out how to counter the spread of Covid-19, yet for those of us interested in betting and the goal of making money, it is important to us.

Yes, we can review a tipster from the basics of data. Pick out what they made over the last 3 months or simply pile in on one that made the most money in 2020, but would that be right?

That is what many simpler tipster review sites do though. Follow a tipster for 3 or even 6 months and say “Yep, this one is good – click this link to join them and we get a 40% share of any memberships you purchase”

The issue with this approach is two-fold.

Firstly the fact these affiliate review sites get paid for who they refer to a tipster (a topic for another day), and secondly, because they are simply recommending those who are hot or enjoying a purple patch over a short-term period.

These is no guarantee that any bettor or tipster enjoying a good 3 or even 6 months, will also be the best option for years to come. They might have simply got lucky.

Let’s be clear on this point because the goal of what we do here at SBC is to outline the tipsters that can make you money betting not just tomorrow, or next month, but for years to come.

Hence why we never go overboard on say just 3 months of results or small sample sizes – or even for that matter use affiliate links in our review, which financially compel us to give positive reviews to something we might not believe in.

Yet, even if we collate years and years of data on a tipster to get a really decent sample size to scrutinise, this still can be improved upon with the use of our ‘Advanced Tipster Analytics’…


Digging Really Deep Into A Tipster

Our quest to get the most detailed, accurate data on a tipster, has informed what we term our ‘Advanced Tipster Analytics’ that now form a standard part of every SBC tipster review.

Much of the work in these Advanced Tipster Analytics has been ported over from other investment worlds and the outputs provided help us make more informed decisions on just which tipsters offer the best chance to make you a profit betting.

To explain briefly how they work – effectively when the SBC team reviews a tipster, alongside reviewing the live, proofed data we have, we also run ‘Monte Carlo simulations’, which replicate the profile of the service over many million data points.

So rather than calculate what might happen when analysing 1000 or 2000 live bets from a tipster, we do so over say 90 million – a much more useful data set.

The results of these simulations can help to answer key questions for any given tipster such as:

  • Is a betting record more likely to be based on luck or skill?
    Getting to the heart of whether you want to risk your money following them…
  • What kind of losing runs or drawdowns might you realistically expect?
    Helping you cope with them when a bad run hits!
  • How do their live results compare to their simulation results?
    Very useful in identifying a tipster that might be lying about their live results
  • Have they benefited from some freak results and outliers that are unlikely to be replicated?
    I.e. Have they got really lucky with a big 100/1 winner or 500/1 each way double?
  • What size betting bank do you REALLY need?
    Because betting professionally is about building a bank!

No Complex Maths Knowledge Required

The good news is that you DO NOT need to understand any complicated mathematics to benefit from exploring these advanced outputs or ‘scores’ we publish as standard in each tipster review.

All you need to do is to simply follow the easy to understand explanations we give and the context to the scores published.

To further help with this, as an SBC member you can also read the Advanced Tipster Analytics Guide we have published that explains things in a simple manner.

Again – no difficult maths knowledge is needed beyond an understanding what each rating means and how a tipster scores in context and if this is good or bad (or in-between)

And naturally, the scores we see from a tipster, then directly contribute to whether or not the SBC team deems them worthy of a Hall of Fame recommendation.

I.e. The tipsters we advocate you should follow based on all the evidence in front of us.

Detailed Tipster Analysis As Standard

All SBC tipster reviews now undergo the Advanced Analytics treatment whereby we run a Monte Carlo simulation to really get to the bottom of just how good they actually are (or not!)

For even more on this topic, you can also access what we call our Tipster Profit Report ‘EXTRA’ which provides you with:

  • Advanced Tipster Analytics Comparison Tables – Explore the performance of those tipsters already reviewed by the SBC team and how they rate against each other.
  • New Tipster Evaluations – View the results for 3 new tipsters that have been put through our Advanced Tipster Analytics and what their outputs tell you

And of course – you can download the special ‘Advanced Tipster Analytics’ guide as an SBC member to guide you further.

Ultimately though, whether you use this extra detail or not and simply just follow the SBC team’s recommendations, you can have peace of mind that no stone has been left unturned in our quest to make the most accurate predictions of which tipsters you should follow.

So, if you are interested in learning more on tipsters including the ones we recommend following and all of our reviews, reports and analysis on the tipping world, why not sign-up for a SBC membership today!

See you on the inside…

Best regards,

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Editor

If you have any questions on this article or a Smart Betting Club membership in general, you can contact me directly via pete@smartbettingclub.com.

How SBC membership can pay for itself many times over with these popular tipster discounts and trials

Last week saw the release of the very latest SBC Tipster Profit Report, featuring our performance updates on 50 different tipster services as monitored by the SBC team.

Each Tipster Profit Report is designed to help you find the very best betting tipsters – those that have proven themselves to be successful over a long period of time.

Yet once you have chosen the tipsters that best suit you, the benefits to a SBC membership don’t end there as courtesy of our unique, 100% independent setup, we are able to negotiate substantial discounts and free trials on many of these top tipsters.

Saving you £££ and often more than the cost of joining the Smart Betting Club in the first place!

Here are a few of the amazing deals you can enjoy now…

SBC Member Free Trials

  • Trial the ‘Hall of Fame’ rated Northern Monkey Punter racing service free for 2 weeks;
  • Trial another proven Hall of Fame racing tipster for just 50p for 15 days;
  • Trial a Hall of Fame rated Darts tipster service free for 30 days;
  • Trial another winning racing tipster for 7 days for just £1.

SBC Member Major Discounts

  • Save £100 on the cost of a season’s subscription to the Hall of Fame rated Scottish Football Bets service (Listen to my podcast chat with the expert behind it!)
  • Save £35 on the cost of your first month with one of the very best racing tipsters in our Hall of Fame;
  • Save 30% on the cost of your first membership with any of our top rated Pyckio.com tipsters;
  • Save £25 on the cost of a year’s membership to the outstanding Matchday Profits service;
  • Enjoy 1 month access for free (worth £30) on another highly recommended, Hall of Fame racing tipster

Why We Can Offer These Discounts To You

The Smart Betting Club is proud to be 100% independent and fully focused on helping YOU – the ordinary punter make money from their betting. We are funded by subscription fees from those of you that become a member of the Smart Betting Club.

This independent stance ensures we accept no affiliate deals, bungs or favours in exchange for writing positive reviews, unlike most, if not all other tipster review websites.

So rather than take a cut or a percentage of any sales to the tipsters we review – instead we are able to pass this benefit onto you in the form of discounts on many top tipsters.

Not only do you benefit from reading our unbiased reviews, but you also save substantial sums too. It’s a win-win situation

…And all because you hold a Smart Betting Club membership, which is available from as little as £29.99 per quarter.

In fact, very often just one of these discounts alone can save you more than the cost of joining us at SBC. Combine 2 or 3 together and your SBC membership will pay for itself several times over!

So, if you are keen to learn how to make money betting using tipsters, why not sign-up for a SBC membership today!

See you on the inside…

Best regards,

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Editor

Getting Started With Tipsters. Walkthrough guides and interviews with 4 winners on how they began…

One of the most popular questions I am asked by those new to either the concept of betting with tipsters for profit or indeed the Smart Betting Club itself is that of ‘How Do I Get Started?’

After all, it can be daunting to know exactly what sports to bet on, what tipsters to follow, how much to bet and so on, especially with so much to choose from.

Which is where our cunningly titled‘Getting Started With Tipsters’ section can help you as it outlines 5 different scenarios from beginner to expert punter and how to get going based on where exactly you stand.

The 5 scenarios cover all bases and are as follows:

  • Scenario 1: If you are brand new to betting for profit
  • Scenario 2: If you are working to a tight budget
  • Scenario 3: If you are an experienced punter with some prior success
  • Scenario 4: If you are a profitable punter experiencing bookmaker restrictions looking for exchange options.
  • Scenario 5: If you are a full-time winning punter looking to build on existing profits

Wherever you fit into the above and the individual circumstances that surround your betting then it will give you the tools and links on how best to get started and to build from there.

Tailored To Your Specific Betting Needs

We have put together this Getting Started With Tipsters section as we recognise that everyone has different needs based on where you are currently in your betting journey.

Whether you are a total beginner, somewhat experienced punter or even established full-time winner, your requirements will be fundamentally different on what you are looking for from a tipster service.

This is because the tipster(s) that suit each of you will differ based on things like:

  • Budget
  • Experience
  • Time available
  • Schedule
  • Bookmakers available
  • Exchanges/brokers available
  • Risk preferences
  • Patience levels
  • Expectations
  • Sporting preferences

So if you are unsure of exactly where to get started – don’t be put off as SBC is here to help you!

Also Now Available – The Getting Started With Tipsters Interview PDF

To further help you get going betting profitably, as am SBC member you can you also explore our interview PDF with 4 different punters on how exactly they got started betting with tipsters.

All 4 have a detailed betting background and level of experience in the betting world, whether it be trading, building their own strategies or a time worn approach to following tipsters that works for them.

Providing inspiration into 4 different ways to make your betting a success from those actively involved in following tipsters.

One such interview is with ‘Dave’ (not his real name) who has been an SBC member since 2014 and currently makes a five figure sum annually by betting with tipsters.

I have previously grilled Dave on how he makes this profit each year (click here to read that), but in this new interview, I specifically wanted to know about how he got started.

Dave told me:

  • His humble beginnings and initial goal to simply make a profit
  • How he scaled up to following the dozens of tipsters he uses now
  • The sports & markets he focused on initially and now
  • How he chooses the tipsters to follow
  • The red flags that make him wary about tipsters unsuitable to him
  • How and when he increased stakes along the way
  • His advice on what to do if looking to imitate his approach!

You can read the full chat with Dave and those with 3 other similar punters using tipsters in this new ‘Getting Started With Tipsters’ Interview PDF – available now to Smart Betting Club members.

Start Small Today, Win Big In The Future…

If you are interested in the concept of learning how to make a profit betting using tipsters, as an SBC member, we give you all the tools, information and advice you need to get going.

Whatever your budget or background, there is something for everyone and remember… from little acorns do mighty oaks grow.

So even if you are starting small (like Dave did.) over time this process can reap dividends. I’m not going to insult your intelligence and say you can turn £500 into £10,000 overnight, but we have seen that with the right guidance and tools, over time you can build up to making significant sums.

After all, if you can’t win at small stakes, you never will at big stakes!

If keen to get started, you can also join and take advantage of our money back guarantee, where you can request a full, no-quibble refund within 30 days (quarterly & bi-annual memberships) or 90 days (annual memberships) once you join the Smart Betting Club.

This money back guarantee is there to give you the confidence that what we offer can genuinely make a difference to your betting.

So, why not give it a try and sign-up today for instant Smart Betting Club access.


Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

An Interview With Golf Tipster, Ben Coley

Ben Coley is a golf tipster on fire with a 1-2 finish in the Portugal Masters at 18/1 and 70/1 on Sunday taking the profits from his tips this year alone up to 466 points at a ridiculously high 75% Return on Investment.

Best of all – Ben supplies all of these tips for free via his weekly Sporting Life columns and so I am delighted to share today an exclusive interview with him on his long-term golf betting success. Perfectly timed for those of you thinking of following him in during this weeks US Open and beyond.

If you enjoy this interview, you can read a full review of Ben’s tipping performance dating back to 2017, including our guidance on how best to follow his tips each week in the new Golf Betting Special Report now available to Smart Betting Club members.

Access to this golf report and our detailed reviews of the 2 other profitable golf tipsters inside it (read more on review#1 and review #2), can be gained the instant you join the Smart Betting Club

Ben Coley Interview

SBC: Hi Ben, thanks for agreeing to this interview! You are a very well-known name on the golf betting circuit these days, yet can you begin by outlining what attracted to you to betting on golf?

Ben: A love of golf, primarily. I started playing from a very young age and was handy for a while and it was always my favourite sport to watch on TV. The betting side was of course just as important; as the son of a betting shop manager I grew up settling football coupons at the dinner table on a Saturday night and I got a job at the head office of an independent firm when I was 16, again through the old man. It very much runs in the family.

SBC: Most people know about you from your Sporting Life tipping columns on golf betting, which continue to be very popular. How did this come about and when did you start writing and tipping for them?

Ben: I’ve been very, very lucky, and worked hard. After studying journalism at university (‘studying’ used loosely), I went back to work at the same place I’d been at since I was 16 and could easily have settled in for the long haul. Instead I took a chance on a low-paid radio job in Leeds and moved there at 23, and I’m still here at 34. The radio gig was in the same building as Sporting Life, who were under the same umbrella at the time, as was the digital side of Sky Sports. That’s how I met my first editor and Dave Tindall, who was working for Sky and Golf365 but writing betting previews for the Life, too. I’d been an avid reader of his for a long time and he was good enough to give me a chance.

I think it was my second or third preview when Bubba Watson somehow won a mad renewal of the Travelers at 50/1 and from that moment I became a regular contributor. I moved across to work full-time for Sporting Life not long after, and since 2015 I’ve been deputy editor there. I say that only to confirm that my job isn’t just golf tipping, thank heavens.

I think it was my second or third preview when Bubba Watson somehow won a mad renewal of the Travelers at 50/1 and from that moment I became a regular contributor

SBC: What is your normal column schedule for Sporting Life and what time and day can readers expect to find them published each week?

Ben: I begin writing my first preview at around 3pm every Monday and typically publish around 7pm, much of the research having been done the previous week. It varies as to whether I begin with the PGA or European Tour but generally the former now as for obvious reasons they reach a broader audience. Whichever preview comes next, that would usually be out by Tuesday lunchtime but sometimes other things get in the way. Mainly Zoom at the moment.

SBC: You preview and tip in both the PGA and European Tour events. Do you have any preference as per which tour offers the best value betting opportunities?

Ben: 100% the European Tour. I would say my best-known winners have still been the PGA Tour (Russell Henley at 300/1 in the Honda or Andrew Landry at 200/1 in Texas) but year after year it seems the standard increases and it’s very difficult to get the market leaders beat. Then you’ve got to establish whether it will be JT’s week, or Rory’s, or DeChambeau’s, or Rahm’s, and it’s difficult – especially when you’ve a general tendency to take on board more risk for a bigger price.

That’s why DJ winning the Travelers at 30/1 this year was so satisfying and why Koepka letting slip the St Jude at 33/1 was so infuriating. The European Tour is weaker, I would say those setting the odds know a little less about it, and there’s greater variety in terms of courses and conditions. All those things present opportunity, the one caveat being that players are far less reliable as a rule and Sundays can be fairly brutal if you are watching.

SBC: Onto the main reason for our interview – the excellent long-term profits you have achieved. Sporting Life have your record for the past 5 years at over 1000 points profit since 2016. Do you have any idea on other key metrics such as your Return on Investment, number of bets or the average amount staked per month or year?

Ben: Most months I stake 60-70 points, and on average it’d be around 750 per year on outright markets, meaning around 800 when you add major specials. Number of bets would be around five and a half per tournament on average, as I typically vary between five and six, sometimes seven or eight but occasionally only two or three. ROI-wise I hit between a 20 and 25% from 2015 onwards but I do appreciate it can be hard to get on at the advised prices sometimes, so all numbers have that asterisk for all that I’m proud of my record.

ROI-wise I hit between a 20 and 25% from 2015 onwards but I do appreciate it can be hard to get on at the advised prices sometimes

SBC: Furthermore – Sporting Life don’t list a record for you prior to 2016 but do highlight you were tipping between 2010 and 2015 and some of the winners you backed. Do you have any figures on overall profits, ROI etc… that you can share?

Ben: I’m afraid I don’t and it’s best I don’t get into the why – might swear and/or get in trouble. Suffice to say those records, both individually and for the entire site dating back as far as 2003, have been lost. I have some numbers but without any means of proving them I have to rely on 2016 onward, which I do think gives a fair indication of what to expect. Hopefully, 2020 will be my best year yet and I won’t have to bemoan the fact that 2012 and 2014 have been expunged.

SBC: Back to present day and you have been in superb form throughout this truncated golfing year with more than 450 points in the bag for 2020 already, yet in 2019 you lost 145 points. Do you feel this is ‘par for the course’ (pun intended) when golf betting and how patient do people need to be when golf betting and following your tips?

Ben: Yes, absolutely. I’ve probably improved in a couple of aspects, especially when it comes to the understanding and application of statistics. The PGA Tour has evolved rapidly in terms of breadth and quality of data and as a tipster you have to adjust, in the same way that a racing expert might now be incorporating sectionals and stride data.

It can throw you off, and I think that happened in 2019 as the European Tour also brought new numbers to the table – but the main difference between the two years can be described as rub of the green. I had a 100/1 play-off loser in December who ought to have won, and had he done so it basically takes care of everything; four or five tips won the week after I’d selected them, no end of close calls, and some potential season-changers just had difficult Sundays. Selections at 125/1, 66/1, 25/1 all leading with nine to play and not winning makes the world of difference and in 2020 things have just gone the other way. I’ve had 250/1 and 150/1 winners which went down the last, a 50/1 play-off winner who ought to have been beaten in regulation, and a couple of others who fell over the line somewhat.

Sami Valimaki winning in Oman at 250s was outrageous in the way the cards fell and last year I’d probably have been on Brandon Stone, who had been on my shortlist for the event and had his pocket picked on the very last hole. That’s golf betting in a nutshell.

Selections at 125/1, 66/1, 25/1 all leading with nine to play and not winning makes the world of difference and in 2020 things have just gone the other way

SBC: I can certainly relate to that as I am sure many readers can given how all-or-nothing betting on golf can be at times.

Given the above, I am interested to know how you cope with the frustrations that golf betting can bring. What advice do you have for punters following you in on dealing with the inevitable losing runs?

Ben: I take to twitter, basically. Otherwise I’ve been doing it long enough that I can generally get over things quickly, after a tweet storm or a WhatsApp or two, and a sleep. I would also say that golf is a bit different to most other sports for those reasons – even the strongest favourite on the PGA Tour now might have a 15% chance of actually winning.

I write long, detailed previews, and fortunately numbers remained strong when the tips weren’t going well. That means I can sit down the next Monday and type knowing it’s not for nothing, whatever happens. Relatedly I think in general, there aren’t many people who follow every point and every selection. They read the analysis, read someone else’s, combine it with their own ideas, and might take one or two of mine. And at risk of sounding glib, if ever there was a time to remember this job is a bit daft – like, its very existence sometimes seems amazing to me – it is now. So what if things don’t go well for a while. I know what I’m doing, I’m trying my best every single week, and I feel lucky to have a loyal readership who understand the nature of the sport.

There’s some pressure, but not stress, and I think that’s an important distinction. Plus it helps that my wife really couldn’t care less and my son is far too young to. It’s hard to justify dwelling on things for too long.

I’m trying my best every single week, and I feel lucky to have a loyal readership who understand the nature of the sport.

SBC: Some good advice there – it sounds like you have a good mindset and setup on how to cope with the stress and strains of golf betting, especially when as a tipster you have a lot of people following you in each week.

Given the fluctuations across a standard 4 day golf event, do you ever trade on your tips in-play? For example if you back a golfer at 100/1 before the tournament starts and he is leading going into day 4. Would you lay him at a short price and lock in profit or simply let it ride out?

Ben: I used to, but trading was never really my forte. Enhanced each-way terms in golf also mean it’s less important, at least at a recreational level, and I pride myself on a record which can’t legislate for that. I put up Justin Thomas at Muirfield Village this summer and he led by three with three left, went 1.04, and didn’t win. I know some of my followers got out in front, some backed him each-way, but my win-only recommendation goes down as a loser. Silly as it may sound to your readers – serious, dare I say semi-professional punters – the things I value most in my job are the quality of my work and the record it helps produce. What I win or lose is secondary and always has been. I get paid to do it and that’s my priority.

SBC: A good staking plan is important whatever you bet on – can you outline how yours work and how you judge how much to risk on any given player or tournament in total?

Ben: I’m going to sound like a politician but there are many people with much brighter things to say about bankroll management and there’s nothing much I can bring to that table. I started off following the template Dave Tindall set for the website a long time ago and while the total investment has nudged up a little, a reflection of playing for seven or eight rather than five or six places, not much has changed. I tend to go win-only at shorter than 16/1, two points each-way from around 16 to 33, one from 40 to 200 and maybe a half from there, but it does vary according to confidence levels and each-way terms. I know some traders will tell you every price is bang on these days but I think that’s a total nonsense and if there’s a player I like at 250/1 who I think should be closer to 100s, I’ll go the full point, and so on. Sorry, this is a bit of a non-answer.

SBC: Finally, given your popularity in golf betting circles, what advice do you have for those worried about the odds on the golfers you identify being forced downwards by the bookmakers? I ask this as I note at times the odds do come under pressure!

Ben: I get asked this a lot and appreciate it can be difficult, although bookmakers do tend to be a little short-termist with it – six months ago most of my tips held in the market but now they shorten immediately. It’s a shame they can do so without laying a bet but I understand that side of the industry and the job they have to do. In terms of advice, have as many accounts as you can, be prepared to walk into a betting shop, and also keep an eye on the exchanges on a Wednesday.

Once things have died down you’ll often see my selections drift out again and while not reflected on the high street as it were, if you are an exchange punter you’ll often get a considerably bigger price

Once things have died down you’ll often see my selections drift out again and while not reflected on the high street as it were, if you are an exchange punter you’ll often get a considerably bigger price, particularly if they overreact to the weather forecast which does happen a fair bit.

Read More With An SBC Membership

You can read the full feature on Ben Coley’s free tips including our guidance on how best to follow him in each week in the new SBC Golf Betting Special Report.

Inside this report you can also read about:

1. The golf tipster with a track record of profit dating back 7 years with a 30.65% ROI from 2143 bets. Easy to follow on Betfair and with a 33% discount available to SBC members only.

2. The new Hall of Fame rated golf strategy/system with a 35.04% ROI in real life profits over the past year. Will appeal to everyone from the big staking professional to the small staking newcomer.

Sign-up Now To Gain Instant Access!

Golf tipster review #2. Up 30.65% ROI over 7 years & suitable to follow on Betfair.

The 2nd tipster review from our new special golf betting report is out now and we have yet another extremely profitable golf tipster to share details on.

Over the course of this 4300 word review, we explore all aspects of just why we rate this tipster so highly and the profitable difference it can make.

This is a service that…

  • Has a track record of profit dating back 7 years with a 30.65% ROI from 2143 bets
  • Advises tips that can be easily placed with both bookmakers and/or with betting exchanges. Yes he is suitable to follow on Betfair.
  • Has enjoyed unbelievably good form recently with a 51.51% ROI in 2019 and 57.13% ROI so far in 2020!
  • Offers exclusive discounts to SBC members including 33% off the cost of joining for a full 12 months

Access to this new review and all parts of our forthcoming special golf report, including the new Hall of Fame golf tipster we also reviewed just 2 weeks ago is available NOW with a Smart Betting Club membership.

Sign-up now to gain instant access

See you on the inside!

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

If you have any questions on this post or a Smart Betting Club membership in general, you can contact me directly via pete@smartbettingclub.com. I respond to all emails as quickly as I can!

Inside the latest SBC magazine (Issue 118) including the 2 new ‘Hall of Fame’ standard tipsters

The very latest SBC Magazine – Issue 118 is out now and it’s a horse racing special featuring two more winning tipsters reviewed and our major new report into the Betfair racing market.

This issue forms part of our ongoing Betting Exchange series dedicated to helping you turn a profit following tipsters on the likes of Betfair, Betdaq, Matchbook & Smarkets. Ideal for those of you blocked and limited by bookmakers for winning!

Inside SBC 118 you can read:

Tipster Review #1: The betting expert with a 9.76% ROI at Betfair SP from 7811 bets advised. 14 page detailed review & exclusive 2 week trial to the tipster available to SBC members only.

Tipster Review #2: The ‘Hall of Famer’ that’s made money with both bookies and at Betfair for more than a decade. 13 page detailed review and free month offer available to SBC members only.

Insight Article: Exploring the Betfair market, How Betfair SP compares and when to place your bets for the biggest profit.

You can access this latest magazine and our entire 15 year strong back catalogue of tipster reviews and articles the instant you join the Smart Betting Club.

Like What We Do Or Your Money Back

This latest SBC Magazine (Issue 118) is available to read right now with a Smart Betting Club membership.

You can sign-up today from as little as £27.99 for 3 months with up to a 90 day money back guarantee* thrown in for good measure!

Sign-up now to gain instant access!

https://smartbettingclub.com/subscribe/

*If you sign-up for a quarterly or bi-annual membership, you have a 30 day money back guarantee, yet if you sign-up for an annual membership this is extended to a 90 day money back guarantee.

When exactly should you place your racing bets & why Betfair SP isn’t always the answer. New report reveals all.

As part of our recent focus on exchange betting, today we have published a special report exploring the Betfair racing market and exactly when you should bet to get the best value odds.

Examining the live market odds for 30,861 horses that have run so far in 2020, we have compared the best prices at several time points before the race starts and Betfair SP itself.

This analysis has identified several trends and patterns that can help you time the placement of your bets for the greatest possible profit. Ensuring you get the highest odds possible.

For example, one clear pattern was found at short prices, whereby a 9.3% increase in odds could be obtained simply by betting early.

Another trend came at larger odds where there is a clear edge simply by taking Betfair SP above a certain threshold. Yet it was also clear that Betfair SP is not always the optimal way to bet and knowing when and where can make a difference to your bet returns.

This report also threw up several other findings of note and if you bet on horse racing on the exchanges, whether it be at Betfair SP or in the pre-race Betfair market, this guide is for you

Part of our Exchange Betting Racing Special

This special report forms part of our recent focus on exchange betting, specifically surrounding horse racing tipsters who make a profit on Betfair or at Betfair SP.

Tipsters such as this extremely popular racing tipster with a 16.51% ROI on the betting exchanges or this Betfair SP tipster with a 10.10% ROI since 2012.

You can gain full access to this special Betfair racing report AND all of the tipsters we recommend for usage on the exchanges with a Smart Betting Club membership.

Sign-up now and get started immediately!

Racing Not Your Thing??
If you are not interested in horse racing – don’t worry. In the next SBC Magazine, we are beginning a very special series focusing on golf betting including 2 fantastic tipsters we fully recommend! Keep your eyes peeled for information on this coming soon.

Best regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

If you have any questions on this email or a Smart Betting Club membership in general, you can contact me directly via pete@smartbettingclub.com. I respond to all emails as quickly as I can!