Professional punter insight on what it takes to win football betting – One expert speaks

Tuesday saw the release of our 2019/20 Season Football Tipster Guide – featuring our take on 16 of the very best football tipsters to follow this season.

Designed to help you find genuine, proven experts to follow in this season – its the perfect antidote to all the ‘predictions’ written by ex professional footballers or journalists with no background or experience in what it takes to make a profit football betting.

Playing football is one thing – betting on it another thing entirely!

One man who does know how to make a profit football betting is the very highly rated expert – Greg Gordon, who since 2006 has run a very profitable tipping service advising bets across a range of major English, Scottish & European leagues.

Greg was one of the experts featured within our 2019/20 Football Tipster Guide and alongside our detailed analysis on his performance, we also grilled him on the current state of play football betting as he saw it.

As a peek behind the curtain on what you can expect to find in the 2019/20 Football Tipster Guide, in this article you can read his interview in full.

We asked him about his performance last season, his thoughts on modern day football betting, the bookmakers & exchanges he uses PLUS his top advice for aspiring football punters.

As Greg also outlines, Smart Betting Club members can save a whopping £100 on the cost of joining his expert service – all thanks to our independent punter-first setup, where you pocket savings not us!

Sign-up for the Smart Betting Club.

Interview With Greg Gordon – As Taken From The 2019/20 Season Football Tipster Guide

SBC: Can you talk us through your tipping performance during the 2018/19 season and what you achieved overall?

Greg: At the end of each season, I always go back to first principles and I look at the season as a whole, before breaking it down into its constituent parts and its particular themes.

The first thing I’d say is that I am always happy to take a profit.

A profit of 20+ points is respectable enough. So is an ROI of 5.28%. With fees of £275 (with the £100 SBC discount applied) a return of £2,000 for an outlay of £275 is not to be sniffed at when compared to other places you could put your money for 10 months.

So big picture is OK. Not as good as last season, where I made a 44.37pts profit at an ROI of 14.84% – but not bad by any means.

Last season, your return would have been £4437 for the £275 outlay and adding the last 2 seasons together, that’s a £6437 profit for a £550 outlay.

Adding the last 2 seasons together, that’s a £6437 profit for a £550 outlay.

During the 18/19 season, we were prisoners of where the results fell and that is basically an occupational hazard in any betting endeavour.

Those that joined in the second half of the season will have had poor results and perhaps even a negative impression of the service. But the season as a whole was good, just as the previous seven seasons have been good.

Over the past 7 seasons I have averaged a profit of 31 points each season at a ROI of between 7 and 8%. Some seasons this figure is slightly higher and some slightly lower but I take strength from the fact my advice consistently beats the bookmaker.

Over the past 7 seasons I have averaged a profit of 31 points each season at a ROI of between 7 and 8%

It is what keeps me going on the days when things go wrong and equally I never go overboard on those great days where everything we touch turns to gold, which seems to happen at least once or twice every season.

And this is the nub of things for anyone betting seriously:

In a short run of bets, such as a half season or a few months you often get an extreme run of positive or negative results and I am sure that’s what happened for me this season more than usual.

When things went well in the first half of the season they went extremely well – with a lot of results falling our way, late in games. Latterly, when we’ve had a bad day or a bad run, the bit of counterbalancing luck you’d expect has deserted us.

At the time it doesn’t seem significant – three bad days a season.

But if you take say just five losing football bets and turn them into winners over a run of say, 100 bets you’d see quite a different picture and the effect of small margins for error, really running for you in individual games.

If you extrapolate that out, then -15pts or +15pts over 300 bets could typically be turned into a -15pts to a +20pts, a swing of as much as 35pts.

I’ve tried to mitigate against that potential for volatility by having more bets this season. It hasn’t worked out like I’d have hoped, largely because there’s been less goals around than I’d expect in the second half of the season. What I’ll need to ponder is, ‘is that likely to be an ongoing trend or is it just a quirk of a particular run of games?’

I look at 2019’s results and I don’t think there’s a deeper meaning to them than the variance of a small sample, based on my experience over the last 12 years. And I also know that to look or invent reasons for a run of results in retrospect, when you are dealing with a small sample size, can lead you down a false trail. I am wary of doing that.

SBC: Were there any notable highlights or challenges faced last season which stand out?

Greg: Starting with a negative: In a football sense there’s been a lot less late goals than I’d normally expect in the leagues I bet in, over the last two quarters of this season.

There’s been a lot less late goals than I’d normally expect in the leagues I bet in

That could be a function of a few things – players mentality, teams’ instructions and a fear of conceding overriding a desire to go and take risks to score that winning goal.

My suspicion is that current coaching fashion and the ‘too many cooks’ culture at most football clubs isn’t helping teams get a consistent, coherent message across to players for the whole season long.

For example, Liverpool take 25+ staff to every away game. In my opinion what can they possibly be adding other than a need to justify their own salaries? The result isn’t good for players that basically need a clear, concise message at all times, and strong sense of who they answer to and what the expectations are for them. Instead, their heads are full of complex, competing messages from a series of ‘expert practitioners’ from various disciplines.

So, what does this mean in terms of football betting? I think in a season of two halves, motivation and demotivation is going to be a key influencer on results and also goals tallies looking ahead. I think we now have to consider how we respond to a season, not as individual games or quarters but as two distinct halves.

So, while I started this answer with a negative, I think there is also a massive opportunity here for punters and tipsters that can look at the calendar in a dynamic, new way.

SBC: Will you be changing your tipping strategy at all for the forthcoming season? If so, what adjustments will you be applying and why?

Greg: For me it is always small changes, tweaks to thinking. The foundations are all solid but what fluctuates are short term results. Mainly, I’ll approach this season with optimism and an open mind. I think being open minded to the need to adapt on the hoof, and also being resolute where you need to be, is the balancing act that every punter has to negotiate.

SBC: Which bookmakers do you recommend for those following your service?

Greg: These days I am almost running a three tier service. For every member I have with a full suite of bookmaker accounts as listed on Oddschecker, I have many more restricted to a few accounts, solely to the exchanges or solely to Asian accounts or a provider such as Mollybet.

I only bet on match results and goals markets these days so the service isn’t restrictive or hard to follow.

It is a broad church service with a common sense approach – whether you bet with bookmakers, exchanges or bet brokers.

Basically it is a broad church service with a common sense approach – whether you bet with bookmakers, exchanges or bet brokers. I’ve set it up so everyone can get the bets on somewhere and in some combination that suits the accounts at their disposal.

SBC: What advice do you have for punters to help them with their football betting this coming season?

Greg: In terms of addressing a bad run, and this is general betting advice for tipster or punter alike, and advice I’ve been given myself: it is a balancing act between maintaining good principles that have stood you in good stead for many years while keeping an open mind to the potential for underlying change in the markets you are betting on.

On an individual level that means going back to first principles with every bet and making sure that you are confident that your thinking is sound and that you are betting to prices where you have an edge. Those are the two things that as a punter you can control – your opinion married to the price on offer. Everything else is ‘on the day’ and especially so in a low scoring game like football.

When the dust has settled and you are looking back over the bets you’ve done, see if there are common mistakes in your thinking, or pitfalls that you regularly fall into. Obviously, these are things that cost you money, that you don’t want to replicate.

I always say that you learn far more from your losers than your winners because winners don’t tend to be evaluated fairly. When we win we assume that skill has played a greater part than luck for the most part. It is easy to be over-critical of a good bet that has lost and to consider the process that got you there to be flawed.

I always say that you learn far more from your losers than your winners because winners don’t tend to be evaluated fairly

I wish there was a series of easy answers I could give you, but I know from past experience that taking care of details and simultaneously working hard on individual bets and the bigger picture is the only way to turn results around and that’s what you should strive to do. It is sore when you lose always, but it is not half as sore when you know that you have done your homework and applied your methods consistently. That’s what generates long term, steady success and that’s what means you’ll come out in front in the end, again and again.

SBC: Do you have any strong ante-post bets or teams/angles/managers to watch for the coming season?

(Note – the following was written on the 30th July and since then, some of the market prices have changed)

Greg: In the antepost markets, I can’t see past Cove Rangers in League Two they have been a popular choice in preseason but I still think there is value in their chances at anything over 5/4 (2.25). They are probably going to go off at around 7/4 (2.75) by the start of the season.

(Greg was correct on the above as before their first game of the season, Cove were 7/4 and are now 11/10 after an impressive start)

As an each way treble of Falkirk to win League One and Dundee United to win The Championship and Cove to win League Two should pay around 13/1 (14.0) and I’d expect all three to be in the frame

Cove have three players on Championship wages in League Two (Park, Masson and Megginson) and the money to back up an assault on the lower leagues above their current level. I can’t see any consistent challenge to their deep pockets over the next 10 months as every other team in their section has had to rebuild from scratch this summer and will take time to gel, even if their recruitment proves to be good. Cove, with a settled team that are used to winning, could be out of sight before the daffodils have bloomed.

SBC: Can you outline the membership options and terms you are offering during the 2019/20 season and any special offers you might have for SBC Members?

Greg: I always offer a £100 discount to SBC members. That takes annual fees of £375 down to £275 for the season up until May 2020.

Factor in the ability to join the Smart Betting Club for just £27.99 and anyone wishing to join my service would be mad to not join you guys first.

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Grab Your Copy of The 2019/20 Season Football Tipster Guide

You can read more from Greg and 15 other proven football experts inside the 2019/20 Season Football Tipster Guide with a Smart Betting Club membership.

Providing insight into the experts with a proven history of making money football betting long-term

It also includes details on 2 expert football tipsters providing their advice for free to Smart Betting Club members this season.

For those of you interested in other sports and how to turn a profit from them – you can also read detailed examinations, reviews and ratings on the best tipsters across the likes of Horse Racing, Tennis, Golf, NBA, NFL, Darts & much more as well.

Sign-up now to gain instant access to this guide and the entire Smart Betting Club service on the best tipsters across all sports.


Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

 

 

 

Free Tipster Review – Wisdom of Crowds

If you are interested in football betting, make sure you download our FREE review of the unique auto-pilot ‘Wisdom of Crowds’ football system, which is making waves at the moment. Download the review in PDF form via this link.

This football service is unique due to its setup, given that it uses automated bet placement software to get each bet on for those following it in. Instead of charging a high fee for access, Wisdom of Crowds also take a small % of returns to further set it apart from many other ‘traditional’ tipping services.

With strong profits made so far, our review explores all aspects of the Wisdom of Crowds service including how the automated software works and our findings in real-life testing. No stone is left unturned in our analysis.

This review of The Wisdom of Crowds is another great example of how a membership of the Smart Betting Club can help provide you with everything you need to make money betting using tipsters.

You can now read our original SBC review of his service in full for free. Simply click the link below to download your special free PDF.

Download The Detailed ‘Wisdom of Crowds’ SBC Review

 

Missed Our Other Free Review?

If you are a racing fan or even a fan of good tipsters in general, make sure you don’t miss out on the other FREE SBC review of ‘The Value Bettor’ service.

Since we began proofing his tips in 2012, he has made a Return on Investment of 35.1% from 1,305 bets advised and continues to impress hugely.

Already for the current, ongoing NH season (for that is his specialty), The Value Bettor is up an extra 16 points profit @ 31% ROI from his first 52 bets of the year, with more profits expected over coming months.

You can now read our original SBC review of his service in full for free. Simply click the link below to download your special free PDF.

Download The Detailed ‘The Value Bettor’ SBC Review

 

Forensic Tipster Examination As Standard

These reviews are indicative as to the level of detail the Smart Betting Club team goes into when analysing a tipster we recommend.

We don’t simply put forward a tipster based on a few months results or a streak of good form, but genuinely long-term stats that demonstrate they have a clear edge on the bookmaker.

A tipster has to tick a lot of boxes to get through the Smart Betting Club review process and come out the other side with our recommendation.

After all our goal is not to help you beat the bookmaker for a few weeks or months but for several years to come.

20+ More Tipsters Like This In The SBC Hall of Fame

If you enjoy these free reviews and are keen to learn more on many other tipsters just like The Value Bettor and Wisdom of Crowds, then you might like to consider a Smart Betting Club membership.

They are just 2 of many tipsters providing advice across a range of sports and markets that we track, analyse and recommend for Smart Betting Club members to follow.

Upon joining, you gain full access to our ‘Hall of Fame’ listings, which features more than 20 other recommended tipsters of high quality that we independently recommend.

Discover more on how the SBC team can help your betting.

Best Regards

Pete Ling

The Football Insider With A Unique ‘Laidback Betting’ Tips Strategy

Earlier this month saw our publication of the very latest SBC Best Tipster Guide review – our take on the outstanding football insider tipster with 12 seasons of profits behind him.

Since the start of the 2016/17 season alone, he has made a 87.6 point profit from 583 bets at 11.5% ROI and averaged 80% bank growth each season to outline just why he rate him so highly.

But its not just this recent record behind our recommendation, but several other key points ranging from his longer-term profitable record, his football & betting connections, his suitability for exchange or bet broker only punters and his laidback betting approach.

To help illustrate more on this, here are 6 key reasons as to why you need to read this review. (Immediate access to the review and the full SBC service can be obtained right now with a Platinum ‘Pro-Punter’ membership)

1. An exceptionally well connected ‘insider’

These tips come from a very well connected source indeed who holds a variety of roles in the football and betting world. Not only does he run this tipping service but he also works as a ‘Next Opponent Analyst’ – a role which takes him to any number of matches, each of which he will watch with an analytical eye and allow him to assess teams’ form and relative strengths and weaknesses.

His contact book is also very well stocked with connections in both the football world (scouts, coaches, ex and current professional footballers) and the betting world (traders, pro-punters, syndicates) that marks him out as a true ‘insider’ with a network that is second to none.

2. A profitable record dating back to 2006

This tipster is one of the longest running services we monitor here at the SBC. It opened its doors to paying customers back in 2006 and we first reviewed it way back in SBC issue #27, first released in July 2008, more than a decade ago.

Following sustained profitability this service was inducted into the ‘Hall of Fame’ in 2012 where it has remained since, which is testament to the consistency in profits produced over the years. It’s fair to say that to maintain an edge in the betting markets for twelve years, you must become a genuine expert within your chosen field.

3. Suitable for following with bookmakers or exchanges/brokers only for those restricted

Our research into the service revealed that 80% of the bets advised are best priced with either an Asian firm or a Betting Exchange, which suggests that this is a service you can follow without access to UK high street bookmakers.

This is also not a service quoting early, unavailable prices with little-known bookmakers as it focuses on the main betting markets (1X2, Asian Handicap & Over/Unders) when plenty of money is swishing around.

4. Laidback betting – easy to follow

The service works based on a theme titled ‘laidback betting’ which means easy instructions, available markets and a commitment to steady, incremental gains underpinned with an aversion to morale-sapping losing runs. This is also reflected in the number of bets each week, where you can expect between 3 to 5 as a average for each set of weekend fixtures and an outlay of between 4 to 7 points in total.

5. All tips come with detailed explanation as to their selection

Whilst you can simply place the bets and walk away as per the ‘laidback betting’ concept, for those of you after more detail on the reasons behind each tip, you can enjoy access to a informative write-up as to its selection.

Whether it be a tip on ‘Peterhead’ in the Scottish Cup or Real Madrid in the Champions League, the detail supplied is second-to-none and provides all the confidence needed that your bet is well researched.

6. Save £100 on joining this tipster with SBC

As an SBC member you can save £100 on the cost of a full season (pro-rata discounts also available for shorter periods) with this particular expert as part of the Tipster Savings we negotiate on your behalf.

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Full details on this tipster plus a further 12 other recommended experts can be accessed now through the SBC’s Best Tipster Guide. Available now via the very popular Platinum ‘Pro Punter’ membership (our complete package).

What Is The Best Tipster Guide?

The Best Tipster Guide is a collection of 13 of the very best tipsters as uncovered by the Smart Betting Club since 2016 and it comes in three parts as follows:

  1. The 2018 Best Tipster Guide featuring 3 new top tipster reviews from this year
  2. The 2017 Best Tipster Guide, featuring reviews of 5 more top tipsters, who continue to make consistent profits;
  3. The original 2016 Best Tipster Guide, which featured our first 5 top-rated tipsters, each of whom have also continued to make a profit since inclusion.

By purchasing access to the Best Tipster Guide through a Platinum SBC membership, you will receive full access to all 13 detailed tipster reviews and unique tipster discounts.

As well as gaining access to the full Best Tipster Guide, a Platinum Smart Betting Club membership also grants you full access to our complete ‘Professional Punter’ package including:

  • 1 Year of SBC Magazines;
  • 1 Year of Tipster Profit Reports;
  • 1 Year of Bet Diary Pro Access;
  • Access to our 12-year Back Catalogue;
  • Access To The SBC Tipping Forum;
  • Gold Tipster Discounts & Trials;
  • Platinum Tipster Discounts & Trials;
  • Our Best Systems & Guides;
  • Full 90-Day Refund Guarantee!

All told – it’s quite the package with a huge amount of expertise and information available to you and all from a genuinely independent source.

Best Of All – Save £45 Right Now

By joining the Smart Betting Club today, you can also save a whopping £45 on the usual cost of a Platinum ‘Pro Punter’ membership (which provides access to the Best Tipster Guide!)

This is because we have slashed the price of joining to ensure as many people as possible have access to our reports, magazines and guides.

We know we can make a difference to your punting – so why not sign-up right away and get started immediately. (There is a 90-day refund guarantee available after all!)

See you on the inside.

Read more on how the Best Tipster Guide can help YOU!

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Editor