Professional punter insight on what it takes to win football betting – One expert speaks

Tuesday saw the release of our 2019/20 Season Football Tipster Guide – featuring our take on 16 of the very best football tipsters to follow this season.

Designed to help you find genuine, proven experts to follow in this season – its the perfect antidote to all the ‘predictions’ written by ex professional footballers or journalists with no background or experience in what it takes to make a profit football betting.

Playing football is one thing – betting on it another thing entirely!

One man who does know how to make a profit football betting is the very highly rated expert – Greg Gordon, who since 2006 has run a very profitable tipping service advising bets across a range of major English, Scottish & European leagues.

Greg was one of the experts featured within our 2019/20 Football Tipster Guide and alongside our detailed analysis on his performance, we also grilled him on the current state of play football betting as he saw it.

As a peek behind the curtain on what you can expect to find in the 2019/20 Football Tipster Guide, in this article you can read his interview in full.

We asked him about his performance last season, his thoughts on modern day football betting, the bookmakers & exchanges he uses PLUS his top advice for aspiring football punters.

As Greg also outlines, Smart Betting Club members can save a whopping £100 on the cost of joining his expert service – all thanks to our independent punter-first setup, where you pocket savings not us!

Sign-up for the Smart Betting Club.

Interview With Greg Gordon – As Taken From The 2019/20 Season Football Tipster Guide

SBC: Can you talk us through your tipping performance during the 2018/19 season and what you achieved overall?

Greg: At the end of each season, I always go back to first principles and I look at the season as a whole, before breaking it down into its constituent parts and its particular themes.

The first thing I’d say is that I am always happy to take a profit.

A profit of 20+ points is respectable enough. So is an ROI of 5.28%. With fees of £275 (with the £100 SBC discount applied) a return of £2,000 for an outlay of £275 is not to be sniffed at when compared to other places you could put your money for 10 months.

So big picture is OK. Not as good as last season, where I made a 44.37pts profit at an ROI of 14.84% – but not bad by any means.

Last season, your return would have been £4437 for the £275 outlay and adding the last 2 seasons together, that’s a £6437 profit for a £550 outlay.

Adding the last 2 seasons together, that’s a £6437 profit for a £550 outlay.

During the 18/19 season, we were prisoners of where the results fell and that is basically an occupational hazard in any betting endeavour.

Those that joined in the second half of the season will have had poor results and perhaps even a negative impression of the service. But the season as a whole was good, just as the previous seven seasons have been good.

Over the past 7 seasons I have averaged a profit of 31 points each season at a ROI of between 7 and 8%. Some seasons this figure is slightly higher and some slightly lower but I take strength from the fact my advice consistently beats the bookmaker.

Over the past 7 seasons I have averaged a profit of 31 points each season at a ROI of between 7 and 8%

It is what keeps me going on the days when things go wrong and equally I never go overboard on those great days where everything we touch turns to gold, which seems to happen at least once or twice every season.

And this is the nub of things for anyone betting seriously:

In a short run of bets, such as a half season or a few months you often get an extreme run of positive or negative results and I am sure that’s what happened for me this season more than usual.

When things went well in the first half of the season they went extremely well – with a lot of results falling our way, late in games. Latterly, when we’ve had a bad day or a bad run, the bit of counterbalancing luck you’d expect has deserted us.

At the time it doesn’t seem significant – three bad days a season.

But if you take say just five losing football bets and turn them into winners over a run of say, 100 bets you’d see quite a different picture and the effect of small margins for error, really running for you in individual games.

If you extrapolate that out, then -15pts or +15pts over 300 bets could typically be turned into a -15pts to a +20pts, a swing of as much as 35pts.

I’ve tried to mitigate against that potential for volatility by having more bets this season. It hasn’t worked out like I’d have hoped, largely because there’s been less goals around than I’d expect in the second half of the season. What I’ll need to ponder is, ‘is that likely to be an ongoing trend or is it just a quirk of a particular run of games?’

I look at 2019’s results and I don’t think there’s a deeper meaning to them than the variance of a small sample, based on my experience over the last 12 years. And I also know that to look or invent reasons for a run of results in retrospect, when you are dealing with a small sample size, can lead you down a false trail. I am wary of doing that.

SBC: Were there any notable highlights or challenges faced last season which stand out?

Greg: Starting with a negative: In a football sense there’s been a lot less late goals than I’d normally expect in the leagues I bet in, over the last two quarters of this season.

There’s been a lot less late goals than I’d normally expect in the leagues I bet in

That could be a function of a few things – players mentality, teams’ instructions and a fear of conceding overriding a desire to go and take risks to score that winning goal.

My suspicion is that current coaching fashion and the ‘too many cooks’ culture at most football clubs isn’t helping teams get a consistent, coherent message across to players for the whole season long.

For example, Liverpool take 25+ staff to every away game. In my opinion what can they possibly be adding other than a need to justify their own salaries? The result isn’t good for players that basically need a clear, concise message at all times, and strong sense of who they answer to and what the expectations are for them. Instead, their heads are full of complex, competing messages from a series of ‘expert practitioners’ from various disciplines.

So, what does this mean in terms of football betting? I think in a season of two halves, motivation and demotivation is going to be a key influencer on results and also goals tallies looking ahead. I think we now have to consider how we respond to a season, not as individual games or quarters but as two distinct halves.

So, while I started this answer with a negative, I think there is also a massive opportunity here for punters and tipsters that can look at the calendar in a dynamic, new way.

SBC: Will you be changing your tipping strategy at all for the forthcoming season? If so, what adjustments will you be applying and why?

Greg: For me it is always small changes, tweaks to thinking. The foundations are all solid but what fluctuates are short term results. Mainly, I’ll approach this season with optimism and an open mind. I think being open minded to the need to adapt on the hoof, and also being resolute where you need to be, is the balancing act that every punter has to negotiate.

SBC: Which bookmakers do you recommend for those following your service?

Greg: These days I am almost running a three tier service. For every member I have with a full suite of bookmaker accounts as listed on Oddschecker, I have many more restricted to a few accounts, solely to the exchanges or solely to Asian accounts or a provider such as Mollybet.

I only bet on match results and goals markets these days so the service isn’t restrictive or hard to follow.

It is a broad church service with a common sense approach – whether you bet with bookmakers, exchanges or bet brokers.

Basically it is a broad church service with a common sense approach – whether you bet with bookmakers, exchanges or bet brokers. I’ve set it up so everyone can get the bets on somewhere and in some combination that suits the accounts at their disposal.

SBC: What advice do you have for punters to help them with their football betting this coming season?

Greg: In terms of addressing a bad run, and this is general betting advice for tipster or punter alike, and advice I’ve been given myself: it is a balancing act between maintaining good principles that have stood you in good stead for many years while keeping an open mind to the potential for underlying change in the markets you are betting on.

On an individual level that means going back to first principles with every bet and making sure that you are confident that your thinking is sound and that you are betting to prices where you have an edge. Those are the two things that as a punter you can control – your opinion married to the price on offer. Everything else is ‘on the day’ and especially so in a low scoring game like football.

When the dust has settled and you are looking back over the bets you’ve done, see if there are common mistakes in your thinking, or pitfalls that you regularly fall into. Obviously, these are things that cost you money, that you don’t want to replicate.

I always say that you learn far more from your losers than your winners because winners don’t tend to be evaluated fairly. When we win we assume that skill has played a greater part than luck for the most part. It is easy to be over-critical of a good bet that has lost and to consider the process that got you there to be flawed.

I always say that you learn far more from your losers than your winners because winners don’t tend to be evaluated fairly

I wish there was a series of easy answers I could give you, but I know from past experience that taking care of details and simultaneously working hard on individual bets and the bigger picture is the only way to turn results around and that’s what you should strive to do. It is sore when you lose always, but it is not half as sore when you know that you have done your homework and applied your methods consistently. That’s what generates long term, steady success and that’s what means you’ll come out in front in the end, again and again.

SBC: Do you have any strong ante-post bets or teams/angles/managers to watch for the coming season?

(Note – the following was written on the 30th July and since then, some of the market prices have changed)

Greg: In the antepost markets, I can’t see past Cove Rangers in League Two they have been a popular choice in preseason but I still think there is value in their chances at anything over 5/4 (2.25). They are probably going to go off at around 7/4 (2.75) by the start of the season.

(Greg was correct on the above as before their first game of the season, Cove were 7/4 and are now 11/10 after an impressive start)

As an each way treble of Falkirk to win League One and Dundee United to win The Championship and Cove to win League Two should pay around 13/1 (14.0) and I’d expect all three to be in the frame

Cove have three players on Championship wages in League Two (Park, Masson and Megginson) and the money to back up an assault on the lower leagues above their current level. I can’t see any consistent challenge to their deep pockets over the next 10 months as every other team in their section has had to rebuild from scratch this summer and will take time to gel, even if their recruitment proves to be good. Cove, with a settled team that are used to winning, could be out of sight before the daffodils have bloomed.

SBC: Can you outline the membership options and terms you are offering during the 2019/20 season and any special offers you might have for SBC Members?

Greg: I always offer a £100 discount to SBC members. That takes annual fees of £375 down to £275 for the season up until May 2020.

Factor in the ability to join the Smart Betting Club for just £27.99 and anyone wishing to join my service would be mad to not join you guys first.

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Grab Your Copy of The 2019/20 Season Football Tipster Guide

You can read more from Greg and 15 other proven football experts inside the 2019/20 Season Football Tipster Guide with a Smart Betting Club membership.

Providing insight into the experts with a proven history of making money football betting long-term

It also includes details on 2 expert football tipsters providing their advice for free to Smart Betting Club members this season.

For those of you interested in other sports and how to turn a profit from them – you can also read detailed examinations, reviews and ratings on the best tipsters across the likes of Horse Racing, Tennis, Golf, NBA, NFL, Darts & much more as well.

Sign-up now to gain instant access to this guide and the entire Smart Betting Club service on the best tipsters across all sports.


Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

 

 

 

Grab Your Football Tips Worth £94.98 By Midnight Saturday

There are just 14 hours (and counting) to secure trial memberships with 3 top-rated football tipping services before our deadline expires at Midnight this Saturday.

Simply sign-up for a new Smart Betting Club membership today and you can enjoy 2 free trials (for 30 and 60 days respectively) with 2 proven football tipster experts…plus the ability to follow a top live football betting tipster for just £1 a day this weekend.

The 2 free trial memberships alone would usually cost £94.98 combined, yet in this special deal for new SBC members, you can get them for free!

The instant you sign-up as a Smart Betting Club member, we will send you details on how to claim your trials. This offer expires midnight tonight so be quick!

Join SBC

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Kevin Pullein: Raining Lies, Damn Lies And Statistics

We have a special guest blog piece to share with you today from expert Scottish football tipster and scout – Greg Gordon, discussing the findings of a recent article by The Racing Post’s football guru – Kevin Pullein.

Greg has a proven record of making money from betting on Scottish Football dating back several seasons and is a renowned expert on the subject.  

Its Raining Lies Damn Lies And Statistics

One of my members has just sent me a copy of a Racing Post article by the Post’s ‘esteemed’ number-crunching columnist Kevin Pullein on the relationship between rain and goals in games.

Click the image below to view the original article in full.

Kevin Pullein Racing Post Rain Article

Sadly, like a lot of Mr Pullein’s grand generalisations it is likely to send many punters down the wrong track even though on closer inspection this rain analysis, if you’ll pardon the pun, really doesn’t hold much water.

Rather, I think this is a situation whereby Kevin Pullein, with lots of column inches to fill each week, has fallen in love with his findings and become determined to find a conclusion, whether a conclusion can be found or not. And that is always dangerous territory for betting judgements.

Through my work as a scout, I am only too well aware that in a football sense, wind is always a far greater impediment to goals than rain is. Continue reading

Exclusive Tipster Offer – Two Free Trials & One £2 Deal

Here at the Smart Betting Club, not only do we review and report back upon all the best tipsters, but we also regularly negotiate special trials and money saving deals with them on your behalf.

And to celebrate the release of our new season Football Tipster Guide, we have wangled 3 amazing deals with 3 of our highest-rated football tipsters (including 2 free trials) that you really won’t want to miss out on!

They include…

  • A free month’s membership to the Scottish Football Bets tipster service run by top North of the Border expert – Greg Gordon;
  • 2 Free months membership to the Football Elite tipster service from renowned betting expert Matt Love;
  • Access to the fantastic live-betting tipster service from ex-pro footballer Goran Trpevski for only £2 this weekend (24/25 August).

Claim Your 3 Special Tipster Deals Now! Continue reading

Exclusive Tipster Offer – Two Free Trials & One £2 Deal

Here at the Smart Betting Club, not only do we review and report back upon all the best tipsters, but we also regularly negotiate special trials and money saving deals with them on your behalf.

And to celebrate the release of our new season Football Tipster Guide, we have wangled 3 amazing deals with 3 of our highest-rated football tipsters (including 2 free trials) that you really won’t want to miss out on!

They include…

  • A free month’s membership to the Scottish Football Bets tipster service run by top North of the Border expert – Greg Gordon;
  • 2 Free months membership to the Football Elite tipster service from renowned betting expert Matt Love;
  • Access to the fantastic live-betting tipster service from ex-pro footballer Goran Trpevski for only £2 this weekend (24/25 August).

Claim Your 3 Special Tipster Deals Now! Continue reading

Festive Footy Betting Strategies To Tackle

The festive football calendar is a tough slog for British teams with the packed fixture list offering a season within a season. It can make or break a campaign for the best and worst teams in the league.

This period can also bring a bumper crop of betting profits for those in the know. Indeed, many pro punters can make their season’s profits during this busy period as the result of some closely guarded insider knowledge.

To help unearth the secrets of the festive season, football expert and SBC contributor Greg Gordon has been picking the brains of the football analysts from Form Lab Black to reveal some of the best festive betting trends. Continue reading

Football Bulletin Special: The Strange Case of The Rooney Clan And the Red Carded Scouser

In this special article, SBC Editor Greg Gordon unpacks the current betting scandal surrounding the Wayne Rooney Clan and suggests that there are a number of high profile Scousers badly in need of some professional betting advice and perhaps even an SBC membership…

At various times in his career, Motherwell midfielder Steve Jennings will doubtless have been warned about the perils of drawing attention to himself through the company he keeps.

He will surely learn the wisdom of that advice over the next few days as his error of judgement becomes a major international news story, thanks to the involvement of Wayne Rooney’s father and uncle, in what can only be described as one of the most cack-handed betting scams in history. Continue reading

Football Bulletin: A Second Coming For King Kenny or More of The Same on Merseyside?

Kenny Dalglish’s return to Anfield has been heralded in certain quarters as a cross between the Second Coming and The Greatest Show on Earth but can the, all to human, Scot really justify the hype?

Now thanks to our exclusive statistical breakdown of the curent Liverpool squad and their results over the last five seasons, SBC can finally cast some light on the facts and the fictions surrounding King Kenny. As SBC editor Greg Gordon explains, in this exclusive extended report, the numbers certainly suggest that all is not quite what it seems at Anfield… Continue reading

Football Bulletin: The Shocking Stats That Prove Blackburn Are The Least Of Arsenal’s Problems

It is been another sore week for Arsenal thanks to Saturday’s  shattering defeat at Blackburn. Now thanks to our exclusive statistical breakdown of the Arsenal squad of today compared to that of last season, SBC can finally cast some light on where it’s going wrong (and right) for The Gunners. As SBC editor Greg Gordon explains the numbers simply don’t add up for Arsene Wenger…

Let’s spare a thought for Josh Surtees, Sabotage Times’ Arsenal correspondent. A man driven to such distraction by the travails of the club he loves that his biog page shows him pictured resplendent in some unnamed, leafy location wearing nothing bar his beachwear and the rictus smile of a man who has clearly flown too close to the sun.

But are things really so bad in balmy N5 Josh?

At SBC we take our care in the community responsibilities seriously and in order to make Josh feel better, we’ve crunched a few numbers, courtesy of the soccer boffins at Form Lab Black, in order to evaluate Arsene Wenger’s likely side this season. Continue reading

Football Betting: The State of the Nation

In this special blog posting, SBC Editor Greg Gordon, himself a scout and proven football tipster from the Scottish leagues as well as a deep thinker on the sport helps examine the state of the modern game from a betting and tipping perspective.

Where We’ve Been

As Sir Alex Ferguson might say: “Football, bloody hell!” Another season over but after 10 months where the front page coverage dominated the back pages it’s a hard one to weigh up.

Amidst Rooney-gate and ref strikes, mail bombs and super injunctions occasionally some football did actually break out.

Barcelona confirmed their pre-eminence in the world game with a panache no-one else will likely match, for as long as the Catalonians’ retain their focus.

Elsewhere winners appeared to emerge almost by default and it wasn’t just some leading tipsters who endured a season of two distinct halves.

In The Bundesliga virtually every club changed their manager at some stage – contributing nothing to a muddling competition that was as dull in the second half as it had been exhilaratingly car crash before the winter shutdown. After losing The Carling Cup final, Arsenal’s points-per-game total thereafter put them in 14th – below Wigan, Wolves and Blackburn as they ‘earned’ another fourth placed finish from a season that had intermittently promised more.

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