Arsenal v Man City Betting Ideas

In this article, our friends at Football Form Lab analyse the data to find betting ideas for Arsenal vs Man City.

Arsenal v Manchester City: Sunday April 8th 16:00.

Should United beat QPR at Old Trafford earlier in the afternoon, Man City face the prospect of going to the Emirates eight points behind United in the title race. With the stakes this high, surely anything less than a win for City will spell the end of their challenge. Meanwhile Arsenal are locked in an even closer battle for third and fourth, making this a vital fixture for both teams.

So what are the Arsenal v Man City Betting Ideas?

This will be the 15th time City have travelled to Arsenal in the Premier League era and they are still looking for their first win, having lost 10/14 and scoring just five goals in total. Moreover, given City’s recent away record of four defeats in nine, with wins coming against just Aston Villa and Wigan, the Gunners win looks the best value in the match outcome market, especially given they’ve won 11 of their last 14 home matches. Arsenal can be backed at 2.5 to win.

The past two meetings between these teams at the Emirates have ended goalless and this fixture has ended with fewer than three goals in six of the past seven years, while the reverse finished 1-0 to City back in December. It’s surprising to see the bookies go odds against for -2.5 goals, especially considering the fact that City haven’t scored more than once in an away game since the start of November, nine games ago. Eight of those nine away games finished with -2.5 goals with six of the last seven having fewer than two scores.  Under 2.5 goals is a generous looking 2.1.

Following on from this, just two of the last eight editions of this fixture have seen the opening goal in the first half hour, while just one goal has been scored in City’s last seven away first halves. The first goal being scored after 28 minutes can be backed at 2.1.

Matches between these two have been pretty feisty in the past couple of seasons with all five meetings since 2009/10 having at least 50 booking points and with Martin Atkinson in charge there may well be a buying opportunity.

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Champions league value bets: Man City over priced at Villarreal

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, the ratings haven’t landed any major shocks.
Bets: 45
Profit/ loss: -17.75 points
Tuesday’s games:  
First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Villarreal vs Man City: Man City 51.6% Chance. No value with City.
  • Man U vs Otelul: Man U 87.2% chance. No value with Man U.
  • Arsenal vs Marseille: Arsenal 56.1% chance. No value in Arsenal.
  • Genk vs Chelsea: Chelsea 71% chance. No value with Chelsea.
The English clubs are all likely winners but the bookies are offering no value according to the ratings. Continue reading

Should You Bet On Cards For A Dirty Derby?

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help us preview the big Derby games this weekend.

Many supporters see derby matches as the biggest games of the season, which are often wrought with competitiveness and intensity. Unsurprisingly, spread betting firms and bookmakers will raise their usual buy-sell prices by anything up to 20 points, but should they?

The Premier League has the lowest number of bookings per game than any of the other top divisions in Europe. Over the past eight seasons the average game has seen 3.10 yellow cards and 0.16 red cards (or 35.1 booking points). In contrast La Liga games have averaged a whopping 61.0 booking points since the start of the 2003/04 season, with 5.2 yellow and 0.35 red cards per game. Continue reading

Football Bulletin: Are Arsenal Just First Half Wonders?

By utilising the excellent Form Lab Black software, the team at the Smart Betting Club have cast their eye over some of the weekend’s feature games in search for any angles of betting interest.

Last week at £10 stakes, our suggested bets would have made a £10.80 profit from just £30 risked.

This weekend, we start off with two teams woefully out of form in the league in Arsenal and Bolton who meet at the Emirates.

Arsenal vs Bolton

Arsenal have picked up just four points from the first five games, conceding an incredible 14 goals so far – That’s one more than their opponents Bolton. Can they bounce back? History says they can. Arsenal have won 15/20 home matches following a loss in their previous league fixture, with 12 W/W doubles. Continue reading

Football Bulletin: The Shocking Stats That Prove Blackburn Are The Least Of Arsenal’s Problems

It is been another sore week for Arsenal thanks to Saturday’s  shattering defeat at Blackburn. Now thanks to our exclusive statistical breakdown of the Arsenal squad of today compared to that of last season, SBC can finally cast some light on where it’s going wrong (and right) for The Gunners. As SBC editor Greg Gordon explains the numbers simply don’t add up for Arsene Wenger…

Let’s spare a thought for Josh Surtees, Sabotage Times’ Arsenal correspondent. A man driven to such distraction by the travails of the club he loves that his biog page shows him pictured resplendent in some unnamed, leafy location wearing nothing bar his beachwear and the rictus smile of a man who has clearly flown too close to the sun.

But are things really so bad in balmy N5 Josh?

At SBC we take our care in the community responsibilities seriously and in order to make Josh feel better, we’ve crunched a few numbers, courtesy of the soccer boffins at Form Lab Black, in order to evaluate Arsene Wenger’s likely side this season. Continue reading

Football Bulletin: Villa – Newcastle, A Game Best Watched On Ceefax?

By utilising the excellent Form Lab Black software, the team at the Smart Betting Club have cast their eye over some of the weekend’s feature games in search for any angles of betting interest.

This weekend, we start off with the game at Villa Park, which if the stats are anything to go by, could be one best watched on Ceefax!

Aston Villa vs. Newcastle

I believe it was Gary Lineker who once famously claimed, “If Wimbledon were playing in my back garden, I would draw the curtains”. With Alex McLeish’s teams, not exactly displaying a Brazilian flare, I’d put them in the same category.

Villa have been level at the interval in 10/21 home matches since the start of last season, while Newcastle have been level at half time in 10/21 away matches. It implies roughly a 50/50 chance of a half time draw, but we can get 2.20 with Bet365 & Coral on that outcome. Continue reading

Champions League Value Bets: Can Anyone Beat Barca?

In last year’s Champions League final, Barcelona gave Manchester United a lesson in how to play football. As good as United were, Barca were just untouchable.

As the 2011/2012 builds momentum, there is a lot of talk about how United have learned from that game at Wembley. But can they do it this time or are the Catalans just too strong?

Likely winner & value bets

To help us determine this, the guys at Dectech have calculated the % chance each team has of winning the Champions League this year. This will adjust as the season progresses, but right now, here are their predictions for the main teams and UK interests. We’ve also added the best bookie odds and whether these offer value.
Continue reading

Football Bulletin: Can Arsenal be fabulous without Fab?

With the transfer window now closed and the international break over its back to business as usual as form and team line-ups will now begin to settle.

After the 8-2 humbling at Old Trafford, Arsenal probably had the most pressing need to act decisively and it was a fairly run of the mill transfer deadline until Arsene Wenger was finally persuaded to do some deals. The highlight appears to be the signing of 75 times capped, 6ft 6in German centre back Per Mertersacker.

Common sense says though that the losses though will be hard to square in the short term: Nasri, Clichy and especially the captain Fabregas are key players, especially so in an Arsenal side lacking squad depth and experience.

But will Wenger’s dealings satisfy the Arsenal faithful in light of the dire start to the season? Can Arsenal be fab without Fab? Continue reading

The Transfer Insider: 5 Days That Could Change Your Season

In this period of transfer market cat and mouse is it too soon to press the button? That is the question facing punters this week as they survey an interesting looking relegation market with a couple of vulnerable big priced runners who may well be very active this week.

QPR have money burning a hole in their pocket but can they bring in enough quality players before the deadline passes? Joey Barton is just one player mulling this over, but who else is Warnock looking to sign? Blackburn also desperately need new faces after failing to convince the likes of Ronaldinho, Beckham and Raul to move to Lancashire, so is the 17/10 on them to go down a worthwhile punt?

At the top end of the table,  Man City’s bloated squad needs chopping down with the likes of Tevez, Boyata, Onuoha and Bellamy all on the move – but to where? Arsenal also desperately need to strengthen and transfer guru Ed, has all the latest on them plus all the key transfer moves – vital for your betting in the Premier League. Continue reading

The Transfer Insider: Just How Well Have The 3 Promoted Sides Strengthened?

So the white lines are painted in the stadiums are spick and span, ahead of 10 months of Premiership mayhem but before a ball is kicked, one obvious question is: just what can we do with that newly-promoted trio of Norwich, Swansea and QPR in their season’s openers tomorrow?

As we suggested in SBC’s Essential Guide To The 2011/12 season, it is a long recognised strategy to back the newly promoted sides on the first day of the season, when adrenalin ensures they are primed to start with a flourish, even if they subsequently fail to scale the heights consistently thereafter.  You can find out more about SBC’s Essential Guide To The 2011/12 season here:

So what about Neil Warnock’s QPR? They are 7/5 with both bet365 and William Hill at home to Bolton tomorrow, and at that price surely they’re worth a nibble? Continue reading