Value bets for the group stages:
Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.
Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.
Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games.
- Villarreal vs Man City: Man City 51.6% Chance. No value with City.
- Man U vs Otelul: Man U 87.2% chance. No value with Man U.
- Arsenal vs Marseille: Arsenal 56.1% chance. No value in Arsenal.
- Genk vs Chelsea: Chelsea 71% chance. No value with Chelsea.