Premier League Fink Tank Value Betting Results Update

This season in the Premier League, we have been using the free Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings to help us spot value bets.

We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using the same value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings give a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

We’ve been tracking all the qualifiers this season for our members on our forum [membership required]. First here’s a recap on last season’s results. Continue reading

Champions league value bets: Man City over priced at Villarreal

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, the ratings haven’t landed any major shocks.
Bets: 45
Profit/ loss: -17.75 points
Tuesday’s games:  
First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Villarreal vs Man City: Man City 51.6% Chance. No value with City.
  • Man U vs Otelul: Man U 87.2% chance. No value with Man U.
  • Arsenal vs Marseille: Arsenal 56.1% chance. No value in Arsenal.
  • Genk vs Chelsea: Chelsea 71% chance. No value with Chelsea.
The English clubs are all likely winners but the bookies are offering no value according to the ratings. Continue reading

Will boring Villa scupper Man City's hot streak?

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help analyse some of the current winning and losing streaks of teams in the English Premier League to identify what might happen next.

Man City are flying, having won eight home games on the bounce, but can they keep it up?

To simplify the analysis, the streaks primarily refer to each team playing at home or away respectively going back to 2006. E.g. We’re only looking at the home winning/ losing streaks not their home and way performance.

Man City (8 home wins) vs Aston Villa (3 away draws)

  • Man City have won eight home games on the bounce just once before, winning the next game against Bolton 4-2.
  • In the history of the Premier League since 2006, there have been 12 instances of teams winning 8 home games on the bounce. The hot team won their next home game 75% of the time, making a small profit of 0.4 points. The last team to do this was Manchester United who happened to beat Villa in their next game.
  • Villa have drawn three away games on the bounce just twice before, drawing once and losing the other time.
  • Since 2006 there have been 23 instances of teams drawing three consecutive away games. Backing the away team is unsurprisingly a bad option, with the draw masters winning the next game just 13% of the time and losing 48% of the time. Backing another draw isn’t a bad shout though, it happened 39% of the time returning a profit of 9.9 points.

Wigan (DWDWL from last 5 home) vs Bolton (3 points from last 5 games)

  • Bolton are rooted at the foot of the table having secured just one win this season. They been in a situation of having scored between 2-4 points from 5 away games 40 times before. The odds of a turnaround tomorrow aren’t great with Bolton losing their next away game 70% of the time.
  • Backing Bolton to lose the next away game would have actually returned a profit of +8.7 points from 40 games.
  • Historically since 2006, any Premier League team with just 2-4 points from their last 5 games has won the next match just 21% of the time and losing 53% of the time.
  • It’s not impossible that Bolton will turn it around tomorrow, but the odds are against it.

Pick up a Smart Betting Club membership to access all this and more.

 

Will boring Villa scupper Man City’s hot streak?

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help analyse some of the current winning and losing streaks of teams in the English Premier League to identify what might happen next.

Man City are flying, having won eight home games on the bounce, but can they keep it up?

To simplify the analysis, the streaks primarily refer to each team playing at home or away respectively going back to 2006. E.g. We’re only looking at the home winning/ losing streaks not their home and way performance.

Man City (8 home wins) vs Aston Villa (3 away draws)

  • Man City have won eight home games on the bounce just once before, winning the next game against Bolton 4-2.
  • In the history of the Premier League since 2006, there have been 12 instances of teams winning 8 home games on the bounce. The hot team won their next home game 75% of the time, making a small profit of 0.4 points. The last team to do this was Manchester United who happened to beat Villa in their next game.
  • Villa have drawn three away games on the bounce just twice before, drawing once and losing the other time.
  • Since 2006 there have been 23 instances of teams drawing three consecutive away games. Backing the away team is unsurprisingly a bad option, with the draw masters winning the next game just 13% of the time and losing 48% of the time. Backing another draw isn’t a bad shout though, it happened 39% of the time returning a profit of 9.9 points.

Wigan (DWDWL from last 5 home) vs Bolton (3 points from last 5 games)

  • Bolton are rooted at the foot of the table having secured just one win this season. They been in a situation of having scored between 2-4 points from 5 away games 40 times before. The odds of a turnaround tomorrow aren’t great with Bolton losing their next away game 70% of the time.
  • Backing Bolton to lose the next away game would have actually returned a profit of +8.7 points from 40 games.
  • Historically since 2006, any Premier League team with just 2-4 points from their last 5 games has won the next match just 21% of the time and losing 53% of the time.
  • It’s not impossible that Bolton will turn it around tomorrow, but the odds are against it.

Pick up a Smart Betting Club membership to access all this and more.

 

Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings: Ireland to Edge Armenia

For the few months, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings. Check this link for details of how we’re using the ratings to spot value.

See the last update here.

Returns so far:

42 bets
42 points staked
-3.76 points
-8.95% ROI.

Something of a wipeout last week for the ratings if taking a value betting approach and following them blindly. Highlights were the value found in Wales and the draw in the Italy vs Serbia game. They did at least indicate that there was no value in backing England against Montenegro. Our suggested bets which use a little more discretion and handicaps to even out the game didn’t fare much better. A lot of the games went against the favourites, but there wasn’t much joy for the underdog last weekend. Continue reading

Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings: Why Liechtenstein offer value against the Scots

For the few months, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings. Check this link for details of how we’re using the ratings to spot value.

See the last update here.

Returns so far:

26 bets
26 points staked
+4.24 points
+16.31% ROI.

Today’s matches: 

First here’s the % chances given to the UK’s home nations by the Castrol ratings:

Montenegro vs England: England 57% chance (No value).
Liechtenstein vs Scotland: Scotland 65% chance (No value).
Wales vs Switzerland: Wales 32% chance (Value).
Nothern Ireland vs Estonia: Nortern Ireland 47% chance (No value).
Andorra vs Ireland (Not UK of course, but lots of interest here as well):  Ireland 88% chance. (No Value). Continue reading

Fink Tank Value Picks 2011/2012

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. We tested their English Premier League ratings in the 2010/2011 season were very pleased with the results, returning over 50 points level stakes profit. 

How we tested it: 

For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank/ Dectech and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds.

Fink Tank/ Dectech provide their predictions in the form of estimated probabilities for the home win, draw and away win. You can then compare this to the available odds to assess whether a particular game offers value.

Here’s how the probabilities are displayed by Dectech/ Fink Tank

For example if the game is Blackburn vs Wolves, Fink Tank might give Blackburn a 51.4% chance. This means that according to the ratings, Blackburn should win 51.4 times out of a hundred.

Finding value

The next step is to find out if those ratings offer value. The ratings might give Man U a 68.3% chance of an away win against Blackpool, but are the bookies taking this into account with the odds they are offering?

Here’s how:

Step 1) First we need to compare like for like. This means we need to see what the ratings percentages are equivalent to in bookie odds.  To work this out, divide 100 by the predicted percentage. So for the Man U game, divide 100 by 68.3. This gives decimal odds of 1.46.

Step 2) Check for value. Now use an odds comparison site such as www.oddsportal.com. If the bookmakers are offering odds above 1.46 on Man U to win, it means there is value in the bet, but if they’re offering odds below 1.46 it means they are being too tight with the odds.

The difference between the predicted probability and the available odds gives you a measure of the % value available.

Here’s a typical table that we worked with:

Ratings Performance in 2010/2011.

We took this value betting approach last season to test the ratings. This meant we’d bet on the team if their predicted chance was greater than the chance implied by the bookie odds. E.g. Dectech gave Bolton 53% chance, the bookies only gave them a 45% chance. It doesn’t mean you’re going to win, just that you are more likely to win that the odds imply.

A point is equivalent to a mythical £1 on every bet.

Here’s the home & away comparison.

Bets Profit ROI
All bets 310 52.37 16.89%
Homes 153 26.6 17.00%
Aways 152 27.6 18.00%

The ratings performed superbly last season when taking this value betting approach. As good as these results appear, it certainly wasn’t a smooth ride with the profits coming in fits and starts, usually as big winners were landed. Notable highlights included West Brom to beat Arsenal away at 17.50, Newcastle to beat Arsenal away at 13.04, Wigan to beat Spurs away at 12.59 and Wolves to beat Liverpool away at 10.00. These four bets alone account for the bulk of the profits made over the season! This is worth bearing in mind before we read too much into last season’s results.

You can check our testing posts from last season with this link. 

 

2011/2012 Season. 

This season we’ll be posting the full list of value picks exclusively on our members’ betting forum, but we will continue to post up a couple of games each week here.

A word of warning though in that the ratings may be a little off in the first few games of the season if they are based on last year’s stats, so we suggest caution in the first few weeks.

As an example, here are 3 of the top value bets from the first weekend of betting in the Premier League this season.

Fink Tank

  • Newcastle Utd – Arsenal:  Newcastle @ 4.33 Corals = 23.84% Value.
  • Fulham – Aston Villa: Fulham @ 2.2 Various bookies = 4.5% Value.
  • QPR – Bolton: Bolton @ 3.47 Pinnacle Sports = 37% value

To get the full list of qualifiers each week, sign up to the Smart Betting Club today. 

Mike’s Football Bets – Seasonal Wrap

A bit late this but better late than never…

Well that’s it for another season in the English Premier League, in what has been one of the most competitive leagues I can remember for a long-time. Man Utd ended up champions by 9 points despite having one of the worst away records of any title winning team and only 10 pts separated Fulham in 8th and Blackpool down in 19th. There are a lot of very similar sides strength wise sitting in mid-table and the gap between the top 4/5 and the rest appears to have been reigned in somewhat as well.

As per my own stats, I managed to make a profit of 4.96 pts from the 117.5 pts staked at a Return on Investment of 4.23%, which is I must admit was below my expectations for the season. I do wonder though that after such a tough season like we have just seen I shouldn’t be too hard on myself, especially as a number of my peers in the top division have also struggled. Sometimes we are at the behest of some very fine margins between profit and loss – for example had Wolves gone down or had there been a third goal in the game between Liverpool and Spurs last week, the final figures would be a lot more positive.

Seasonal Record

Below you can find the breakdown of performance dating back to the 2009/10 season, when I began advising bets in October 2009. The ROC refers to Return on Capital, which is the percentage growth of profit in relation to my advised betting bank of 25 pts.


The full spreadsheet of results can be downloaded here.

I do hope to return again next season and continue to build upon the promise of the first 2 seasons advising bets in the EPL, thanks for all your support in 2010/11!

If you have any questions, do drop me a line on either the members forum or via mike@smartbettingclub.com.


Mikes Football Bets 20th May

Last week summed up how difficult it can be at this time of the year and as such I am drawing a line under all Main and Shortlist bets for the season.

Instead my focus is on the Ante-post portfolio, which could either way this weekend depending on so many different outcomes. What we do need is Stoke to finish in the top ten and if possible Wolves and Wigan to go down!

I have just one extra bet for the Ante-post and that is on Newcastle to beat West Brom at 2.11. This is for those of you who backed my early season bet on the Baggies to be the top newcomer for 0.5 pt at 9/4. The two teams face each other at St James Park so a 0.5 pt bet on the home team should they win, will ensure a profit whatever the outcome. Naturally only take this bet if you took the West Brom top newcomer one earlier this season.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend!

Antepost Bet
0.5 pt Newcastle to beat West Brom. 2.11 Canbet/SBOBet

 

Final Fink Tank Ratings & Value Picks

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

Update:

It was a storming weekend for the Fink tank ratings, picking up Villa, Spurs and Fulham to win away. The season’s total now stands at 52 points with an ROI of 17%. Not bad at all!

 

This weeks:

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game. The ratings have thrown up some big value in certain games this weekend, but they are probably best taken with a pinch of salt with a very different United team likely to run out against Blackpool.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.